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2006 Federal Liberal Leadership Race Alberta Tories Ed Stelmach Federal Liberals Jim Dinning Stephane Dion

premier-designate ed stelmach.

Saturday December 2, 2006 was a very bad day for political frontrunners.

We saw Stephane Dion ride from fourth place on the first ballot to defeat frontrunners Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae at the Federal Liberal leadership convention in Montreal.

We also saw Ed Stelmach ride from third place on the first ballot of the Alberta PC leadership race to overwhelm both frontrunners Jim Dinning and Ted Morton on the third ballot.

I did make it out to the Alberta PC leadership party at the aviation centre and I can say it was quite an entertaining peice of political theatre. As with the Federal Liberal race, I did enjoy seeing the frontrunners go down in a blaze of glory. (and I’ll give a shout out to Duncan, Allie, and Blake who were all there).

So, what does an Ed Stelmach led-PC Party mean for Alberta’s political scene?

– Ed Stelmach is the first Alberta Premier from rural Alberta since Social Credit Premier Harry Strom from 1968-1971. Will Ed Stelmach take the Tories the root of Social Credit…
– This race very much manifested itself into a Northern Alberta/Edmonton (Stelmach) v. Calgary (Dinning) & Southern Alberta (Morton).What affect does this have on Tory support in urban Alberta? In southern Alberta? Calgary?
– Can Ed Stelmach appeal to Edmonton and Calgary voters? Does Stelmach’s victory bode well for Kevin Taft’s Alberta Liberals?
– What happens to Ted Morton? It was Ted Morton’s supporters who pushed Ed Stelmach over the top on the third ballot (to the effect of 28000 for Ed Stelmach to 4000 for Jim Dinning).
– What happens to Jim Dinning and the Calgary crew? Jim Dinning was Calgary’s candidate…
– What does Ed Stelmach stand for? This isn’t a personal attack, just a legitimate question. Ed Stelmach’s policy positions on this campaign were not exactly the most well developed. We shall wait and see…

I will have more thoughts on “What now?” later this afternoon…

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2006 Alberta PC Leadership Race Alberta Tories Dave Hancock Ed Stelmach Jim Dinning Mark Norris Ted Morton

selected alberta pc leadership selection results…

Here are the main and selected riding results from yesterday’s Alberta PC leadership selection…

First Ballot
Jim Dinning – 29,470
Ted Morton – 25,614
Ed Stelmach – 14,967
Lyle Oberg- 11,638
Dave Hancock – 7595
Mark Norris – 6789
Victor Doerksen – 873
Gary McPherson – 744

Second Ballot
Ed Stelmach – 51,764
Jim Dinning – 51,282
Ted Morton – 41, 243

Third Ballot
Ed Stelmach – 77, 577
Jim Dinning – 55,509
(Morton to Stelmach – 25,813)
(Morton to Dinning – 4,227)

Here are some interesting selected riding results…

Calgary Elbow (Ralph Klein’s riding)
First Ballot
Jim Dinning – 1,890
Ted Morton – 656
Ed Stelmach – 360

Second Ballot
Jim Dinning – 2,004
Ed Stelmach – 747

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (Stelmach’s riding)
First Ballot
Ed Stelmach – 4,156
Ted Morton – 316
Jim Dinning – 170

Second Ballot
Ed Stelmach – 4,382
Jim Dinning – 193

Little Bow
First Ballot
Ted Morton – 1,784
Jim Dinning – 382
Ed Stelmach – 351

Second Ballot
Ed Stelmach – 1,518
Jim Dinning – 515

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2006 Alberta PC Leadership Race Ed Stelmach Jim Dinning Ted Morton

premier ed stelmach…?

Say hello to Premier Ed Stelmach on the third ballot…

Most recent second ballot results of the Alberta PC race…

Jim Dinning – 44.000
Ed Stelmach – 36,000
Ted Morton – 32,000

Wow…

First, Stephane Dion… now maybe Ed Stelmach… it’s a good night for third place finishers…

I may or may not be heading off to the PC party at the Aviation Centre…

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2006 Federal Liberal Leadership Race Federal Liberals Stephane Dion

…is a vulnerable position.

Being presumptive nominee that is. Random.

Stephane Dion has been selected as Federal Liberal leader over Michael Ignatieff.

Disaster averted?

Canada Liberals choose Stephane Dion as leader

MONTREAL, Dec 2 (Reuters) – Canada’s official opposition Liberals on Saturday unexpectedly chose former Environment Minister Stephane Dion as their new leader despite political shortcomings that could hinder his chances in an election expected next year.

Dion, in fourth place after the first round of voting, beat former Harvard academic Michael Ignatieff on the fourth and final ballot at a Montreal leadership convention. Dion won by 2,521 votes to 2,084.

Will we see another presumtive nominee defeated tonight?

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2006 Alberta PC Leadership Race 2006 Federal Liberal Leadership Race

presumtive nominee…

Just as the Federal Liberals are holding their leadership selection today, the Alberta PC’s are out voting for their second and third ballot choices for their new leader.

I have no clue who is going to win this one. Last weekend’s results on their first ballot resulted in a Jim Dinning-Ted Morton-Ed Stelmach playing feild.

Today’s second-third ballot results will depend on a lot of things.
– How many memberships were the camps able to sell this week.
– How effective are the defeated candidates in getting their networks out to support endorsed candidates (Dave Hancock, Mark Norris, and Lyle Oberg’s endorsement of Ed Stelmach).
– How effective will the camps be in getting out their vote today.

I guess we’ll see. Premier Jim Dinning? Premier Ed Stelmach? Or Premier Ted Morton?

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2006 Federal Liberal Leadership Race Gerard Kennedy Stephane Dion

dion pulls ahead.

So, I’m sitting around watching CPAC‘s coverage of the Federal Liberal leadership convention.

Jean LaPierre is being interviewed. I wondered what happened to him.

They are getting ready for the third ballot. Stephane Dion, Michael Ignatieff, and Bob Rae are on the ballot. I was disappointed that Gerard Kennedy was knocked off the second ballot, but it’s not overly surprising because he was fairly close to Dion for the third-fouth place position.

Here are the live third ballot resutls….

Michael Ignatieff – 1660
Bob Rae – 1375
Stephane Dion – 1782
Total – 4817
Needed to win – 2410

Stephane Dion pulls ahead on the fourth ballot. It’s a Dion-Ignatieff showdown…

Very interesting turn of events…

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2006 Federal Liberal Leadership Race Federal Liberals Gerard Kennedy Michael Ignatieff Stephane Dion

that other leadership race.

The Federal Liberals are chosing their leader this weekend. Though I was mysteriously left off the Edmonton Strathcona ballot during the delegate selection meetings, I had decided months ago that I would sit out this Liberal leadership convention.

Though I support Gerard Kennedy for the Federal Liberal leadership, finances and interest level had a lot to do with my lack of Montreal presence this December weekend. I think Kennedy would do well as leader. When I met Kennedy this summer I wasn’t overly impressed by the speech he delivered, but when I was able to talk with him one-on-one I was very impressed at the types of ideas we talked about. He is a fresh face for the Federal Liberals with actual elected political experience in government and in opposition. Something that will benefit the Liberals greatly in the next election.

Of the other candidates, I don’t mind Stephane Dion.

Michael Ignatieff is interesting, but hasn’t impressed me during this campaign (or when I met him), and continues to rub me the wrong way.

I find the Bob Rae phenomenon to be the most interesting though. He has a train car worth of political luggage, but continued to surprise me with high level quality supporters such as Ralph Goodale. So, I’m puzzled. He’s intellegent and articulate, but what would happen if he won? Would the Liberals implode and lose all their seats in Ontario? Probably not. The unpopularity of Mike Harris‘ Government is fresher in the mind of Ontarians and former Harris-era Ministers Jim Flaherty and John Baird cruised to Federal victory in January 2006. Could Rae do the same?

This said, I think there is potential for it to be a while before I again become actively involved with the Federal Liberals.

Hopefully whoever is chosen as Leader will do their best to bring the Liberal Party of Canada back to Canadians. Hopefully they can pose a compeditive challenge to the Conservative minority in what will most likely be a Spring 2007 election.

As I do have many friends at this convention, I will direct you to their blogs for their on-site commentary: Gauntlet, CalgaryGrit, and Nic.

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2006 Alberta PC Leadership Race Alberta Tories Ed Stelmach Jim Dinning Ted Morton

debate? how about mini-put?

The three last remaining Alberta PC leadership candidates standing – Ed Stelmach, Ted Morton, and Jim Dinning – had it out tonight in a televised debate. Now, one might say,:

“Daveberta, you’re a keen observer of the albertus politicnus. What did you think of the debate?”

Well, my answer to that question is that I didn’t watch the debate.

I spent my evening having a blast at West Edmonton Mall’s Glow-in-the-Dark Mini-put! If you haven’t been, I do recommend. It’s quite fun.

From what I can tell about the debate, it wasn’t exactly exciting (I may be wrong?).

Jim Dinning went on the attack against Ted Morton. This isn’t overly surprising as Dinning has been in desperate-attack mode against Morton since only receiving 30% support on last Saturday’s PC leadership vote. All you have to do is watch and listen to Dinning to feel the sense that he’s extremely desperate to save his political future and pull off a win. Check out this video of Dinning’s rally speech to supporters earlier this week to see what I mean.

Though I’m really at a loss as to predict what the results of Saturday’s vote will be, it should be interesting to see how much support Ed Stelmach has been able to gain over the past week. He seems like the only of the three to have some sort of momentum…

As for the other candidates, I will have my final pre-second/third ballot up tomorrow.

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Alberta Tories Environment Guy Boutilier Larry Johnsrude

john cleese, the mla for fort mcmurray-wood buffalo.

Larry Johnsrude posted a bizarre transcript of an Alberta Energy Utilities Board hearing starring Alberta’s Environment Minister Guy Boutilier who was not answering questions as a Minister, but only as an MLA…

Here’s a portion of the transcript, I encourage you to read the rest, bizarre, monty pythonesq…

Judge for yourself. The following is an excerpt from an exchange between Boutilier and Don Mallon, lawyer for the Mikisew Cree First Nation:

Q (Mallon). I’m going to talk about the paragraph where you look forward to fishing with your grandson, and today you said granddaughter, but I gather from what you said today and what it says in the following paragraph that you don’t have a
grandchild yet, or am I mistaken?

A (Boutilier). Actually my wife and I don’t have a son or daughter yet, but we’re in the process of privately adopting, so as a follow-up to our adoption, we expect to have grandsons and granddaughters.

Q. All right. So I’m going to assume that your grandson is precocious. And has become a river ecologist, a river biologist. And your son advises you as the Minister of Environment that the Athabasca River system’s ecosystem is in danger of imminent collapse and that you and he are not going to be able to fish in that river anymore. And the reason for it is that the flows are too low and that we’re removing too much water. Now, the responsibility that you have, which is an absolute responsibility, then, is to protect the river, right?

A. It’s important to recognize that I’m here as MLA, I’m quite prepared to answer any question, but not as Minister of Environment.

Q. Well, I’m sorry, sir, you don’t get to pick and chose who you are one minute and who you are not the next. You are the Minister of the Environment.

A. Right.

Q. And I’m asking you, sir, that as the Minister of Environment, is it not appropriate, if that ecosystem is in danger, to reduce or completely stop the withdrawal of those flows for the period of time that it takes in order to allow that system to get back to square one?

A. Mr. Chairman, I am here today as the MLA representing the region and citizens.

Q. And we know that Alberta Environment is the protector of the environment in this province.

A. Yes, I’m here today, though not as Alberta Environment but as the MLA.

Read the rest…

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the more things change…

A couple of thoughts…

– I can’t wait until the Alberta PC leadership race is over with and I can start blogging on something else (I *could* completely ignore the race, but it only started to get interesting 3 days ago…)

– Former Lyle Oberg supporter and MLA for Calgary Montrose Hung Pham has endorsed Ted Morton… Lethbridge West Tory MLA Clint Dunford has endorsed Jim Dinning.

– It will be very interesting to see what type of internal termoil manifests itself if Ted Morton wins the race. With one supporter (who’s first choice was Lyle Oberg) from his caucus collegues, it’s going to be a fairly awkward first caucus meeting after next Saturday if Morton pulls it off. I get the feeling it’s going to be a little awkward anyway considering the amount of support Morton’s team pulled on the first ballot.

– Lyle Oberg. What happened to the 10,000 Tory memberships the Alberta Building Trades Council whole-sale purchased from his campaign? Will they show up to support Ed Stelmach?

– On a non-Tory leadership note! One of this blog’s favorite MLA’s – Edmonton Centre Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman – had a great quote in Tuesday’s Gateway on the topic of women in politics:

“There’s an idea out there that somehow women are delicate flowers—people are snickering already—that somehow we can’t hack it and that we are broken by this, and frankly, that’s just bullshit,”

Way to tell ’em, Laurie!

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flip flop morton.

This came in my inbox this afternoon….

“We need leaders need to make decisions, not flip flop and dither when they’re faced with a tough decision.” –Jim Dinning

LOL @ Dinning trying to paint Morton with the “flip flop” label.

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tuesday hawking.

There’s been some good breakdown of the potential outcomes of next Saturday’s Alberta PC leadership second ballot. As I’ve said before, a lot will depend on how many memberships can be sold this week and how well defeated candidates like Dave Hancock, Lyle Oberg, and Mark Norris can retain the support of supporters and direct them to support Ed Stelmach.

Also, it should be interesting to see if the 36 MLA’s who are supposedly supporting Jim Dinning actually get out and sell PC memberships this week (we’re all looking at you Barry McFarland…).

I wouldn’t be surprised if large portions of Lyle Oberg’s support and Mark Norris’ rural support went to Ted Morton on the second ballot. But, because of the PC membership sales this week it will be fairly difficult to track this.

Ted Morton is definately the anti-establishment candidate in this race. If you’re a Tory and you want things shaken up, I’m pretty sure Ted Morton is your man. Ed Stelmach may have “integrity,” but I still can’t name one thing he did after being a member of the PC Cabinet and Caucus for 13 years. And I think I’ve made my thoughts on Jim Dinning fairly clear in the past.

I’ll have more of my thoughts in the next couple days, but until then I’ll direct you to Duncan’s breakdown on the probabilities of the preferential second ballot.

Also, I was impressed with Green leader Elizabeth May‘s second place good showing of 25% in last night’s London-North Centre by-election. Considering Liberal Glen Pearson was only elected with 34% and Conservative Diane Haskett placed third with 24%, it should be interesting to see how this will effect future Green support across Canada. It doesn’t do anything bad for their legitimacy…

And finally, the Federal Liberals are holding their leadership selection this upcoming weekend. Who will win? Michael Ignatieff? Bob Rae? Gerard Kennedy? I guess we’ll see, but to tell you the truth, other than reading the weekly pdf edition of the Hill Times than arrives in my mailbox weekly, I haven’t been spending any large amount of time paying attention to Federal politics…

UPDATE: Will has some thoughts on Jim Dinning’s speech yesterday…

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it’s cold outside.

Edmonton: Windchill -40C

It’s really really cold!

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"ed who?" has mo’ as mark norris throws it.

Mark Norris has endorsed Ed Stelmach in the second-ballot of the Alberta PC leadership race.

It seems like the anybody-but-Jim Dinning-and-Ted Morton candidate has materialized in full force.

More insightful commentary to come in the near future.

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delivering votes for ed stelmach.

Ken Chapman has a good breakdown of how well PC MLA’s delivered in support from their ridings for the PC leadership candidate of their choice. Here is part of Ken’s Ed Stelmach breakdown:

The overall score of stars and slackers is about 50/50 for Ed’s Team. The big time performers were Ray Danyluk from Lac La Biche St. Paul who turned out whopping 73% of the total 1730 voters for Ed. Next was Luke Oullette from Innisfail Sylvan Lake who turned out a more than respectable 51% of the total 1726 voting members for Stelmach.

You can check out the first-ballot PC MLA endorsements here.

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