Category: Broyce Jacobs

Categories
Broyce Jacobs Ed Stelmach Iris Evans Jack Hayden Len Mitzel Lloyd Snelgrove Mel Knight Ray Danyluk Richard Marz Wayne Drysdale

the rural alberta advantage.

While speaking to the Alberta Association of Municipal Districts and Counties this week, Premier Ed Stelmach confirmed the obvious when defending his government’s decision to increase the number of constituencies in the next election: it was in order to preserve the existing number of rural constituencies in the Legislative Assembly. This decision continued the over-represention of rural Alberta ridings in the Assembly, despite rapid growth in the urban centres.

With a few exceptions, the PCs have been able to rely on non-competitive electoral districts in rural Alberta since wiping out the Social Credit rump in 1975. Over the past 39-years, the PCs have relied heavily on rural politicians as a “farm team” to replenish their ranks of rural MLAs (some now include Premier Stelmach, and Ministers Jack Hayden, Iris Evans, Ray Danyluk, Lloyd Snelgrove, Mel Knight, and MLAs Wayne Drysdale, Broyce Jacobs, Richard Marz, and Len Mitzel).

The PCs have dealt with competitive elections in the two major urban areas (Edmonton and Calgary), but the threat of a Wildrose insurgency across Alberta would be cause for great concern and is likely the reason behind Premier Stelmach’s posturing over rural over-representation.

Email
Categories
Broyce Jacobs Ed Stelmach Iris Evans Jack Hayden Len Mitzel Lloyd Snelgrove Mel Knight Ray Danyluk Richard Marz Wayne Drysdale

electoral boundaries mashup.

Earlier this week, I posted the poll-by-poll results from the 2008 provincial election for Calgary and Edmonton, and (once again thanks to reader Alan Hall) posted below are the 2008 results superimposed over the proposed boundaries from the interim report of the Electoral Boundaries Commission. A listing of the interim ridings with the 2008 results and margins are also posted below. If the political environment continues to change before the expected 2012 election, the past electoral results could mean very little, but until that time, these maps provide an interesting view of the previous election and what could be in 2012:

Email
Categories
Bill 44 Broyce Jacobs Danielle Smith Ed Stelmach Kyle Fawcett Paul Hinman Rob Anderson Ted Morton

will danielle smith ignite a wildrose fire in the pc caucus?

Alex Abboud and Trish Audette have already written about this, but an anonymous source reported in this week’s subscription-only issue* of Alberta Scan has suggested that 10 Progressive Conservative MLAs could cross the floor to the Wildrose Alliance if potential game changer Danielle Smith is selected in the October 17 leadership vote.

How likely is this?

With 70 MLAs in the 83 seat legislature, the PCs have a broad-range of political diversity in their caucus ranging from liberals/Red Tories to hard-core angry social conservatives, with a large group of simple pro-government pragmatists filling the gap in between. While Ed Stelmach‘s tenure as Premier began three years ago with a number of funding increases and semi-progressive moves (like the creation of the now almost existent lobbyist registry), a number of recent events seem to suggest that the right-wingers in the PC caucus have been taking advantage of the current leadership vacuum to drive their own agenda.

A number of right-wing champions appear to have solidly integrated themselves into the PCs institutional machinery: Ted Morton is widely seen as a competent Minister of Sustainable Resource Development, and following Kyle Fawcett‘s very public apology to Premier Stelmach, it appears that the Stelmach loyalist’s appointment to an important government committee was cancelled in favour of Bill 44 advocate Airdrie-Chestermere MLA Rob Anderson. Right-wing Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis has just been appointed as Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Energy, and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Broyce Jacobs is now the Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Agriculture.

Many of these MLAs are driving the agenda behind legislation like Bill 44 and pushing Stelmach’s public shift to the right following Alberta’s record budget deficit and Paul Hinman‘s victory in the Calgary-Glenmore by-election. It’s hard to disagree that there is disgruntlement with Stelmach’s leadership inside the PC caucus, it is difficult to understand why the more right-wing conservatives would leave the governing caucus to occupy the opposition benches.

This said, any PC MLA crossing the floor to the Wildrose Alliance could change the political landscape in the Alberta Legislature, especially if they are a cabinet minister. If only a hand full of PC MLAs joined a Danielle Smith-led Wildrose Alliance, they could easily replace the two-MLA NDP caucus as the third party. With only 9 MLAs, the Liberal Official Opposition could become the third-place party if the rumoured 10 PC MLAs joined what would become an 11 MLA official opposition.

*Anyone can read Alberta Scan and many other publications for free at the Legislative Assembly Library.

Email
Categories
Brian Mason Broyce Jacobs David Swann Grant Notley Jeff Callaway Jim Gurnett Libby Davies Mo Elsalhy Paul Hinman Randy Thorsteinson Tony Sansota

all eyes on the opposition.

– On April 25, the Alberta Liberal Party will be holding its first Annual General Meeting since David Swann became leader in December 2008. After recently announcing the laying off of their two remaining party staff members, I’ve been informed that the Liberals financial situation stabilized in the short-term when a number of donors opened their pockets when the news became public.

With current President Grant Dunlop stepping down, I’ve heard that two three candidates, Calgary Liberal Tony Sansotta, former Edmonton-McClung MLA Mo Elsalhy, and current Party Secretary Carrol Jaques [see: an email from Jaques to supporters] are intending to stand for the position. I’ve also heard that some members of the party executive are pushing time at the AGM to hold a discussion on changing the Liberal Party name.

– Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason was joined by Vancouver-East MP Libby Davies at that party’s revitalization conference this weekend in Grande Prairie. While the Grande Prairie Herald-Tribune reported only a dozen attendees, I was told by a conference attendee that there were nearly 30 attendees later in the afternoon (which still leaves the NDP with a lot of work to do).

The NDP haven’t elected an MLA in the region for 25 years. Former NDP leader Grant Notley represented Spirit River-Fairview from 1971 to 1984, and Jim Gurnett was elected in a by-election following Notley’s death in 1984 (Gurnett was later defeated by PC Glen Clegg in 1986). In 2008, NDP candidates Adele Boucher Rymhs and Nathan Macklin increased their party’s support in Peace River and Dunvegan-Central Peace.

– Paul Hinman has announced that he will be stepping down as leader of the Wildrose Alliance. Hinman defeated PC MLA Broyce Jacobs to become the Alberta Alliance MLA for Cardston-Taber-Warner in 2004. Hinman was elected party leader in 2005 when Randy Thorsteinson stepped down. With the merger of the Alliance and Wildrose Party in 2008, he became leader of the Wildrose Alliance. Hinman was defeated in 2008 by Jacobs. According to Party President Jeff Callaway, members are also eyeing a name change.

– Meanwhile, the Alberta Greens may face de-registration by Elections Alberta for financial reasons…

Email