Map of MLA support in the 2011 Alberta PC leadership contest (September 21, 2011)
The three candidates eliminated on the first-ballot vote to choose the next leader of Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives have all announced their support for front-runner Gary Mar. Carrying 40% of the vote on the first-ballot, it is understandable why the three would endorse the front-runner in terms of both personal political calculation and party unity.
Scattering a little differently, the group of MLAs who supported the three eliminated candidates have begun to throw their support among the remaining candidates.
Leadership candidate Doug Horner held a media conference yesterday to announce that Ted Morton supporter Edmonton-Mill Woods MLA Carl Benito was joining his campaign.
The only MLA to follow Dr. Morton’s lead into Mr. Mar’s camp is St. Albert MLA Ken Allred. It has been speculated that Housing Minister and Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis may endorse Mr. Mar this week. (UPDATE: Minister Denis has endorsed Mar).
Including Minister Denis, there remain five MLA supporters of Dr. Morton who have yet to throw their support behind any of the top three candidates (as far as I am aware). Those remaining MLAs are Livingstone-Macleod MLA Evan Berger, Highwood MLA George Groeneveld, Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview MLA Tony Vandermeer, and Edmonton-Manning MLA Peter Sandhu.
Doug Griffiths‘ only caucus supporter, Calgary-North Hill MLA Kyle Fawcett, is also backing Alison Redford.
Meanwhile, Dr. Morton’s campaign manager Sam Armstrong, remained critical of Mr. Mar’s candidacy. Mr. Armstrong told the Calgary Herald in an interview that:
“It’s the same old, Old Boys’ Club around Gary that’s been there forever”
Mr. Orman’s endorsement of Mr. Mar was also not enough to convince his campaign manager Patrick Walsh to come along. Mr. Walsh is now supporting Ms. Redford’s campaign.
Check out the Alberta PC Leadership page on this blog to track MLA support for candidates on the second ballot.
It is unclear how many of Dr. Morton’s supporters may show up to support Mr. Mar on the second-ballot vote on October 1, but it may have saved his political career, which appeared to be close to an end when the former Finance Minister placed a distant fourth with 11% of the vote on September 17.
Mr. Orman placed fifth with 10% of the vote. One Tory insider emailed me this morning suggesting that Mr. Orman’s endorsement could lead to his appointment as Alberta’s envoy in Washington D.C., a job Mr. Mar held until earlier this year.
Two days ago it was difficult to see anyone defeating Mr. Mar on the second ballot. It feels even less likely now.
Conservative versus Progressive?
Since the first-ballot vote eliminated Dr. Morton and Mr. Orman, the hard-edged conservatives of the group, the Wildrose and their friends at the Toronto National Post have been spinning the narrative that the progressives (or “soft-centrists”) have defeated the conservatives in this contest. While the endorsement of the two more “conservative” candidates will aid Mr. Mar in dispelling this attack, I am not sure that I would put a “progressive” label or Mr. Mar, or either of the other two remaining candidates.
Like Dr. Morton, front-runner Mr. Mar has expressed solid support for privatized health care. Mr. Mar’s comments put him in the unfortunate position of appearing more supportive of the Americanization than even Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, who supports the introduction of private facilities, but sticks to finely-tuned talking points when talking about full-privatization. Of course, spin alley is in a near traffic jam trying to explain away Mr. Mar’s feelings towards having Albertans pay out of pocket for health care.
While the remaining three candidates may not espouse hard edged conservatism like Dr. Morton or Mr. Orman, the three candidates have received financial support from not-so-progressive groups, like the Merit Contractors Association, which is an anti-union lobby group in the construction industry.
All three candidates have received support from across the center and right of the political spectrum. Like Mr. Mar, Ms. Redford has received the support of Liberals and Red Tories alike, including former federal candidate Kevin Taron, former provincial candidate Beth Gignac, and former Prime Minister Joe Clark. Mr. Horner is certainly a moderate conservative and has received the support of longtime MLA and Assembly Speaker Ken Kowalski, who’s campaign once published an election ad stating that “While human beings can create laws, the laws of God must take precedence.”
Members of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party will be voting for their next leader in a second (or third) ballot on October 1. Gary Mar, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner will contest the vote in two weeks, and until then will be selling memberships across the province.
Last Saturday’s first-ballot vote gave Mr. Mar a wide-lead with 40% of the of vote. Ms. Redford at 18% and Mr. Horner at 14% have a big challenge to catch up with the front-runner. Not moving on to the next ballot are former Finance Minister Ted Morton, former cabinet minister Rick Orman, and backbench MLA Doug Griffiths.
While the right-wing Mr. Orman placed a respectful fifth place, Dr. Morton’s support from his previous run in the 2006 leadership campaign appears to have evaporated last weekend, leaving many political watchers to suspect that his base has migrated to the Wildrose on a more permenant basis. It appears that Mr. Griffiths’ outsider message was not enough to resonate with PC Party members across the province.
Here is a breakdown of the September 17 first-ballot results:
Maps: Number of total votes cast in the first-ballot, MLA endorsements of leadership candidates, poll-by-poll results in the first-ballot vote. (Click to enlarge)Maps: Percentage of PC voter support for Gary Mar, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner. (Click to enlarge)
Maps: Percentage of PC voter support for Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Doug Griffiths. (Click to enlarge)
First ballot results of today’s Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership vote:
Gary Mar: 24195
Alison Redford: 11129
Doug Horner: 8635
Ted Morton: 6962
Rick Orman: 6005
Doug Griffiths: 2435
As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the top three candidates will contest a second ballot on October 1. More detailed poll by poll analysis coming soon.
Today is election day in Alberta, but not the kind of election day that would dominate the airwaves and twitter streams in most other provinces in a modern liberal democratic state like Canada. Today, Alberta’s forty-year governing Progressive Conservatives are casting their vote in the first ballot for their new leader, which has become in the minds of many long-time Conservative stalwarts and hoards of two-minute Tories, an event as important as a general election.
Does this sound scary? It is probably a confusing political environment for most Canadians, and while most Albertans will not participate in this internal party leadership contest, it will have a large effect on the direction that Alberta’s governing party will take in the months before (and most likely after) the next general election. Despite the lack of defining issues or real narrative during this campaign (aside from candidates reassuring party members that they are not Premier Ed Stelmach), it has been a fairly dull affair.
If you do decide to track down the location of your local PC Party voting station and pay the $5 to purchase a membership, who do you vote for? Over the past few months, and increasingly over the past few days, I have heard more plans for strategic voting than I had ever hoped to.
Vote for Gary Mar to stop Ted Morton from winning.
Vote for Alison Redford to stop Ted Morton from winning.
Vote Gary Mar to stop Frederick Lee from winning.
Vote for Ted Morton to stop Gary Mar from winning.
Vote for Alison Redford to stop Gary Mar from winning.
Vote for Doug Horner to stop Gary Mar from winning.
Vote for Doug Griffiths to stop Gary Mar from winning.
Vote for Rick Orman to stop Gary Mar from winning.
Vote for a Calgarian to stop Doug Horner from winning.
Vote for Doug Horner to stop a Calgarian from winning.
Vote for Rick Orman to split the right-wing Ted Morton vote.
What ever combination of results is achieved today, it could be an interesting next two weeks. If no candidate receives more than 50% tonight, then a second vote will be held on October 1. The results of the first ballot vote are expected to be announced at an event in Calgary at 7:30pm tonight. You will find the results posted on this blog around that time.
I will also have the pleasure of joining the Calgary Herald political commentary crew starting around 7:00pm on their Cover it Live feed. Feel free to stop by there and join the conversation.
A recent poll of PC Party members also placed Mr. Mar and Ms. Redford as first and second in the contest. The source of the lists used to conduct the poll are now under question.
Progressive Conservative members will be voting on the first ballot of their leadership selection process on September 17. If no candidate receives more than 50%, the top three candidates contest a second ballot on October 1.
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater: At a nomination meeting scheduled for September 21, former Liberal caucus staffer turned NDP activist Mandy Melnyk will face Canadian Union of Public Employees Local 3550 President Trudy Grebenstein for the NDP nomination.
Calgary-Buffalo: Mount Royal University Professor Lee Easton has withdrawn his name as the Alberta Party candidate in this constituency. Mr. Easton was a candidate for the Alberta Party leadership earlier this year.
Calgary-Currie: Businessman Norval Horner is seeking the Liberal nomination. Mr. Horner is a distant cousin to Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Doug Horner. The Liberals held this constituency until 2010, when two-term MLA Dave Taylor left to sit as an Independent. He later joined the Alberta Party and recently announced he would not be seeking re-election.
Calgary-East: Robin Luff was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5.
Calgary-Fort: Kirk Oates was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5. Mr. Oates was the federal NDP candidate in Calgary-Southeast in the 2011 federal election.
Calgary-Greenway: Al Brown was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5. Mr. Brown has run for the NDP on numerous occasions, including as their candidate in Calgary-East in the recent federal election.
Calgary-McCall: Collette Singh was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5. Ms. Singh was her party’s candidate in Calgary-Northeast in the recent federal election.
Calgary-Varsity: Cynthia Caldwell was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5.
Cardston-Taber-Warner: On September 17, businessman Doug Cooper and Village of Sterling Deputy Mayor Gary Bikman will contest the Wildrose nomination. Former nomination candidate David Wright withdrew his name from the contest and endorsed Mr. Bikman. The constituency was represented by Wildrose MLA Paul Hinman from 2004 until 2008 (Mr. Hinman now represents Calgary-Glenmore).
Drumheller-Stettler – What was originally shaping up to be a five person Wildrose nomination contest has dwindled down to a two person race. Still left in the contest are Rick Strankman and Doug Wade. The three other candidates, Dave France, Chris Warwick, and Patrick Turnbull, dropped out of the race when they did not meet the necessary qualifications required by their party.
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview: Businessman Don Martin is seeking the Wildrose nomination.
Edmonton-Decore: Real Estate agent Ed Ammar is the nominated Liberal candidate in the constituency named for former Liberal Party leader Laurence Decore. Liberal MLAs Mr. Decore, Bill Bonner, and Bill Bonko represented the area from 1989 until 2008, when former School Board Trustee Janice Sarich captured it for the PCs.
Edmonton-Ellerslie: Community activist Chinwe Okelu is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. founder of Young and Associates, an Edmonton-based company that facilitates mediation and negotiations. He has run for City Council numerous times and his connections as a former Liberal Party supporter will create an interesting dynamic in this contest, in which former MLA Bharat Agnihotri is also running.
Edmonton-Glenora: Former NDP MLA Ray Martin is seeking his party’s nomination in this constituency. He was his party’s leader from 1984 until 1994, Mr. Martin was the MLA for Edmonton-Norwood from 1982 until 1993 and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview from 2004 until 2008. He has also ran for federal office in 1997, 2000, 2008, and 2011.
Edmonton-Mill Creek: Mike Butler is seeking the Liberal nomination. Mr. Butler ran for the federal Liberals in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont in the 2011 election and for the NDP in the same federal riding in the 2008 election. He also ran for the NDP in Edmonton-Rutherford in the 2008 provincial election.
Lethbridge-West: Activist and writer Shannon Phillips defeated James Moore to capture the NDP nomination on September 11. Ms. Phillips has received high-profile endorsements from Stephen Lewis and Naomi Klein.
St. Albert: Local businessman Tim Osborne was acclaimed as the Alberta Party candidate.
With three days left until the results of the first ballot voting in Alberta’s Progressive Conservative leadership contest are tallied, some candidates are being accused of breaking campaign rules.
Perceived front-runner Gary Mar is facing accusations that his campaign was selling memberships outside an advanced polling station set up in Edmonton, something that is no allowed under PC Party rules. Mr. Mar’s campaign is also being criticized for their use of buses to transport PC Party members from seniors centres to advanced voting stations.
Continuing a trend in the campaign, Mr. Mar was universally criticized by his rival candidates, leading me to question how a recent poll could have reached the conclusion that he is considered “consensus candidate” in this contest.
Meanwhile, questions are being raised about a recent Environics poll gauging support among PC Party members. The poll found that Mr. Mar and fellow Calgarian Alison Redford as the leading competitors in the contest. The main question being asked by some political watchers is who provided Environics the list of 22,000 PC Party members and was the list accurate?
UPDATE: PC Party President Bill Smith says which ever campaign leaked the membership list to Environics broke a confidentiality agreement.
As voting day approaches, the PC leadership candidates are pressing the flesh and doing their best to get their message out to eleventh hour supporters. Ms. Redford released ideas about Family Care Clinics. Rick Orman proposed a development strategy for Northern Alberta. Doug Horner has held a series of question and answer times on Twitter using the hashtag #askdoughorner. And Doug Griffiths released another high production quality video, this one about reforming government:
In a very unexpected move, former MLA and NDP leader Ray Martin has announced that he is seeking the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Glenora. Mr. Martin served as the MLA for Edmonton-Norwood from 1982 to 1993 and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview from 2004 until 2008. He aws the leader of the Alberta NDP from 1984 until 1994 and he has stood for federal office numerous times, including as the federal NDP candidate in Edmonton-East in 2008 and 2011.
RAY MARTIN TO RUN FOR NDP NOMINATION IN EDMONTON-GLENORA
EDMONTON – Ray Martin will seek the NDP nomination for Edmonton-Glenora for the upcoming Alberta provincial election.
“I’m excited to return to politics and have a chance to speak out on issues that matter Alberta’s working families.” said Martin
Ray Martin, a former four-term MLA and Leader of the Opposition, pointed to a number of issues that he’s looking to speak out on, including the export of jobs through the Keystone pipeline, improving family health care, and stopping cuts to education.
“Glenora residents are looking for an experienced voice to challenge the government on these issues.” said Martin. “I’d be happy to provide that voice to them.”
But it was a special letter that came in the summer which prompted Martin to come out retirement as well.
“Jack Layton sent me a letter shortly before he passed, and it was very meaningful to me that he would reach out to me when he was facing his cancer.” said Martin. “It’s given me the resolve that I need to continue contributing to the change that he talked about both to me and to all Canadians.”
New Democrats in Edmonton-Glenora are anticipated to nominate their candidate in early October.
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The Glenora constituency is currently represented by Progressive Conservative MLA Heather Klimchuk. Aside from Minister Klimchuk, the only other nominated candidate is the Alberta Party‘s Sue Huff. It is unclear what connection Mr. Martin has to the communities in this west of downtown constituency.
It is not a big surprise to see Mr. Mar in the lead, but Ms. Redford’s support is likely to surprise a few political watchers who thought that she would be fighting for third place in this contest.
Advanced voting for the first-ballot of the leadership selection process begins today. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote on the first-ballot on September 17, the top three candidates will compete in a second-ballot vote on October 1.
Newly elected Alberta Liberal leader Raj Sherman gives his victory speech with his wife Sharon standing to the right. Leadership co-chair Josipa Petrunic and candidates Laurie Blakeman, Hugh MacDonald, and Bruce Payne stand to the left (Bill Harvey did not join the other candidates on stage).
What kind of leader will Raj Sherman be?
This is a tough question to answer. As Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson somewhat dramatically described yesterday:
Sherman – energetic, intelligent, charismatic – could prove to be a political white knight riding to the Liberals’ rescue. Or Sherman – inexperienced, mercurial, impetuous – could yet prove to be one of the horsemen of the apocalypse.
Simply put, Dr. Sherman is a mixed-bag. (Don Braid, David Climenhaga, and Maurice Tougas have all penned opinions on what Dr. Sherman’s acendency to the leadership might mean for Alberta’s Official Opposition party).
The Caucus
Former Tory MLA Dr. Sherman will walk into his new office as the Leader of the Official Opposition this week surrounded by an eight MLA Liberal caucus, which has had a tense relationship with its leaders since the 2008 general election. The caucus includes two of his leadership competitors (Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman and Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald) and two of the party’s former leaders (Calgary-Mountain View MLA David Swann and Edmonton-Riverview MLA Kevin Taft). Of the group of eight, two (Dr. Taft and Calgary-Varsity MLA Harry Chase) are planning to retire at the next election.
The Big Four
It is my experience that the Chief of Staff, Caucus Communications Director, Party President, and Party Executive Director are four key positions that a Liberal party leader needs support from in order to successfully command the leadership of the party. Two of these positions are about to be vacated.
As noted in a recently Globe & Mail article, Erick Ambtman has resigned as President. Corey Hogan, executive director since 2009, has announced his plans to move on to future challenges. Chief of Staff Rick Miller, a former MLA and nominated candidate in Edmonton-Rutherford, may want to focus his energies on his election campaign. In his short time in the job, Communications Director Brian Leadbetter has proven to be an effective communication manager in a position that has turned into a rotating door over the past few years.
The Liberals need a ground game
While only around a paltry 8,600 out of almost 27,000 eligible voters actually participated in the leadership vote, the party is still left with a vast list of almost 30,000 potential volunteers, sign locations, and voters to help them in the next provincial election. One of the areas that Mr. MacDonald and Mr. Payne stressed during the leadership campaign was the need for the Liberals to build their strength on the ground.
Currently, the Liberals do not have functional organizations in most constituencies across the province, including in constituencies that they held up until the 2008 election. The lack of local organization and funds will pose a challenge in finding credible candidates to run in an expected fall 2011 or spring 2012 general election.
Mending fences
A significant number of the party’s staunch loyalists supported Mr. MacDonald’s candidacy and his criticisms of the open voting leadership process. Many of these Liberals were furious at former leader Dr. Swann’s attempts to cooperate with other opposition parties in response to his party’s shrinking political fortunes. Dr. Sherman will need to mend fences with this sometimes unreasonable group of stalwarts while cementing his own activists into the party ranks.
It will also be interesting to see if right-wing leadership candidate Bill Harvey remains in the Liberal Party (it is suspected that he may join the Wildrose Party). The two-time candidate, who was supported by right-wing agitator Craig Chandler, earned 7% of the vote in this contest.
Of interesting note, party Vice-President (Policy) Debbie Cavaliere challenged Dr. Sherman for the PC nomination in 2007 and later ran as the Liberal candidate against him in the 2008 general election.
Other Parties
The Progressive Conservatives will be voting for the first ballot in their leadership contest on September 17. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, then a second ballot with the top three candidates will be held on October 1. The victor of that leadership contest will determine the tone and calendar of the next provincial election, which many political watchers are expecting to be held later this fall or early next spring.
Since 2010, the Wildrose Party led by Danielle Smith have moved into second place in the polls, with the NDP led by Brian Mason are competing with the Liberals for third place. The question is whether Dr. Sherman’s star power can write the Liberals back into the political narrative they have been largely absent from over the past two years.
There is also the question of what effect Dr. Sherman’s victory will have on the new Alberta Party, which continues to organize, but has dropped to a lower-profile since Hinton Mayor Glenn Taylor was chosen as its leader earlier this year.
About 150 people attended the Alberta Liberal leadership event today at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.Former Tory MLA Raj Sherman delivering his victory speech. Liberal MLAs Laurie Blakeman and Hugh MacDonald, and candidate Bruce Payne standing to the left.Second place candidate MLA Hugh MacDonald talks to reporters.Outgoing Liberal leader David Swann talks to reporters.New Alberta Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman.
Dr. Raj Sherman was first elected as the Progressive Conservative MLA for Edmonton-Meadowlark in 2008. In 2010, he sent an email to Premier Ed Stelmach, his caucus colleagues, and medical contacts that led to him being kicked out of the PC caucus. He sat as an Independent MLA while joining the Liberal Party leadership race earlier this year.
Dr. Sherman defeated four-term Liberal MLAs Hugh MacDonald and Laurie Blakeman.
