The Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald have published the results of a joint-Environics poll gauging support for Progressive Conservative leadership candidates among 800 card-carrying party members:
Gary Mar: 31%
Alison Redford: 20%
Doug Horner: 12%
Ted Morton: 10%
Rick Orman: 5%
Doug Griffiths: 4%
Undecided/Won’t vote: 17%
Gary Mar: 43%
Doug Horner: 14%
Alison Redford: 10%
Ted Morotn: 7%
Alison Redford: 36%
Gary Mar: 22%
Ted Morton 11%
Doug Horner: 1%
It is not a big surprise to see Mr. Mar in the lead, but Ms. Redford’s support is likely to surprise a few political watchers who thought that she would be fighting for third place in this contest.
Advanced voting for the first-ballot of the leadership selection process begins today. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote on the first-ballot on September 17, the top three candidates will compete in a second-ballot vote on October 1.
11 replies on “new environics poll shows gary mar in the lead, alison redford in close second.”
How is the leadership vote weighted? Is it OMOV, or do we need to spread these numbers out over constituencies?
Dave, these are choices by the trough drinking tory card holders. Most of the public don’t represent the views of card holding trough drinkers. I think we can expect the unexpected and see surprises this fall. Dinning was the projected winner and had way more support than Morton and did not win. Most of the public at large are actually tired of the Tories and the Liberals having become more to the Right now, may bleed off some spoils. Either way, its good if WRA AND libs bleed off seats to trim down the overbloated PC party. It will be refreshing to see politics shaken up and mixed up little bit. The stagnanation and entrenched way of doing things here is keeping real news from even ever making it to the TV.
I think it is a huge shame on Alberta Media and bloggers that they have not done more to get that Kelly Charlebois / Gary Mar story more publicity. Ted Morton has been slagged for using a secondary email that apparently everyone does. Yet that is no where as serious as siphoning of money to your cronies and then saying you want to have transparency in government. Gary Mar is not in this race for Alberta. He is in this race for himself and his buddies and this Charlebois story should be front and center.
That makes me hopeful! I’m trying to decide whether to vote for Griffiths or Redford, but if Redford has a fighting chance, I’m going to have to go Redford.
Wow, @Dave. Rant incoherently much? Dave, these results are probably meaningless. Environics has no access to membership lists, so their assertion that this was a survey of card-carrying members is suspect. Maybe they got a list from a campaign, or a list from 2006, but either of those would introduce so much bias and error as to be useless. File this one under Lyndon Johnson’s view of polls.
I was called by this pollster. First question was are you a card carrying member of the PC Party? I answred yes. Then I proceeded to indicate that I was going to vote for Orman and Griffiths. I am of course voting for Mar, I just enjoy messing with pollsters.
I find @Dave’s comments hilarious. He is exactly why the PC party keeps winning, he has no real clue what Albetans want outside the ranting and raving of his circle of 5 friends.
Where is the information on margins of error? They’re in the Journal story you linked to but not your post. Please add them to improve the numeracy of your readers.
I guess bus loads of Chinese appearing at the advance polls might help to keep him here (for a while ?) If memory serves – Oberg was up to this same “organizational ploy” but with a different ethnic group during the last PC leadership convention. It back-fired for him and hopefully it will backfire on any candidate who uses this as part of his/her “organization”.
Busloading in Seniors??? Wholly f. apparently this candidate was also signing up people at the voting booth, and this breaks election rules, but NOBODY is saying anything, esp. the media.
It does not matter which PC wins. Premier Lougheed just anounced that the Keystone pipeline is shipping jobs south and that is exactly what Lib Leader Sherman has been saying all along. Perhaps, this is the the start of a Peter Lougheed moment! Surprises do happen, like in 1971.
Another rant. I was at one of the advance polls all day. No one was “signing up people at the voting booth.” I’m told you could buy a membership in the parking lot from Mar’s people and I personally saw a bunch of people show up with “Alison Redford” memberships (i.e., a card those people could exchange (in the parking lot) for an actual membership card. Whoop-de-do. Newsflash, people. You can go inside the voting room and buy a membership from the Party, and you can continue to do that right up until the close of voting. The point is to make this process open to anyone who wants to pay a membership and vote. Someone PLEASE explain the moral difference of buying a membership from a “furtive” campaign operative outside the building (50 metres away from the entrance) or inside from the Party.
[…] recent poll of PC Party members also placed Mr. Mar and Ms. Redford as first and second in the contest. The […]