“It could be asked by rural Albertans why 17 per cent of the population that lives in rural Alberta that has all the oil and gas revenue, does all the work, all the farms, all the agriculture and everything associated with it, goes to support urban Albertans who sit in high-rise condos and don’t necessarily contribute to the grassroots of this economy”.
There is a lot wrong with Minister Griffiths’ statement, but to start, he should take a closer look at the urban landscape the next time he drives through one of Alberta’s cities. Most urban Albertans are likely living in single-family detached houses in suburbs, not in high-rise condos downtown (this is probably something, as the Minister of Municipal Affairs, that he should be aware of).
Alberta’s Legislative Assembly Building (sans covered dome).
After a three-month break, Members of Alberta’s Legislative Assembly will gather today in Edmonton to start the spring sitting.
The commencement of this year’s first sitting will be unusual in that it will lack the traditional pomp and circumstance that comes with a Speech from the Throne. Lieutenant Governor Donald Ethell will not be invited to deliver a traditional Speech from the Throne today. The lack of Throne Speech or accompanying flagship legislation will mean a focus on the provincial budget, to be tabled on March 7. This, of course, is a deliberate move by the Tories.
Doug Horner
Finance Minister Doug Horner will table the provincial government’s 2013/2014 budget on Thursday, and many political watchers are wondering what the document will include.
Over the past two months, Minister Horner and Premier Alison Redford have managed to communicate that Alberta has a revenue problem, a pipeline problem (also known as the unfortunately named ‘Bitumen Bubble’), and finally a spending problem.
The Premier mused about tax increases, and then ruled them out. All these mixed signals will make this week’s budget announcement a highly watched spectacle.
The continuation of the sitting also means that a handful of private members bills left over from last year’s sitting will return to the Assembly floor for debate this spring. These bills were introduced last year by opposition and backbench government MLAs.
Watch Premier Redford focus on her strengths, like advocating on the national stage for a Canadian energy plan and for opening new markets for Alberta’s oil – like the controversial Keystone XL pipeline. As demonstrated throughout her first year in office, Premier Redford is much more effective at being a provincial advocate than being a provincial politician.
Do not expect to hear cabinet ministers or government MLAs make many comments about the fiascos that wreaked havoc for the Tories last fall. Ongoing investigations by Chief Elections Officer O. Brian Fjeldheim, retired Justice John Vertes, ethics commissioner Neil Wilksonson, and Information and Privacy Commissioner Jill Clayton will give the Tories a legitimate excuse to say “no comment.”
Will the Wildrose drive the agenda?
Danielle Smith
In the fall sitting of the Assembly, the newly minted Wildrose Official Opposition ran circles around the large Tory majority. It seemed like every day Wildrose leader Danielle Smith and Airdrie MLA Rob Anderson would have a new scandal or leaked documents to throw at the Tories like a live grenade.
Mirroring the tactics of the federal Conservatives in Ottawa, the Wildrose have brought a more aggressive and hyper-partisan approach than Albertans are used to from their opposition parties.
The official opposition launched a new website and series of radio ads to coincide with the budget debate, asking for Albertans feedback on the fiscal situation. While it is hard to fault the official opposition for their outreach, it is difficult to imagine the Wildrose will change their conservative ideological bent based on this mini-public relations campaign.
Lost in the fray during the fall sitting, these two parties need to remind Albertans that they are still there. Can the New Democrats and former official opposition Liberals succeed in reasserting themselves in the Assembly? I would not count them out.
The four-MLA NDP caucus just finished their province-wide “Broken Promises Tour”, highlighting what leader Brian Mason claims are a string of broken promises from the Tories since last year’s election. Liberal leader Raj Sherman has come out with a string of media releases criticizing the Tories.
Both parties hope that a provincial budget harsh on public services will remind Albertans of the differences between their parities and the governing Tories. The centre-rightish Liberal Party saw a mass exodus of supporters vote for Premier Redford’s Tories in last year’s election to block the Wildrose from forming government. It worked too well for the Tories, leaving the Liberals with a small five MLA caucus.
Last fall, the Wildrose Official Opposition danced circles around the governing Tories. Daily attacks from the Wildrose left the Tories stumbling and stammering to respond. New faces in the Premier’s Communications Office have already brought a more aggressive and partisan tone to their media releases and responses to opposition criticism online. This sitting, expect to see the Tories to counter the Wildrose attacks by taking a more aggressive approach to defending Premier Redford’s political agenda. That means dirt, mud, and more dirt.
Conservative Joan Crockatt has narrowly defeated her opponents to win the federal by-election in Calgary-Centre. At 10:30pm with 241 of 263 polls reporting, Ms. Crockatt’s 9,479 (37%) votes placed her comfortably ahead of Liberal Harvey Locke‘s 8,181 (32%) and Green Chris Turner‘s 6,455 (25%).
Mr. Crockatt’s less than inspirational campaign and internal division within conservative ranks gave both the Greens and Liberals the belief that they might have a once in a generation opportunity to break the Tory Party’s forty-year hold on the city. A number of polls showing a close race, which turned out to be fairly accurate, also boosted the spirits of the two opposition parties.
The Conservatives did win this by-election, but Ms. Crockatt’s narrow margin of victory is noteworthy. In the 2011 election, former Conservative MP Lee Richardson was re-elected with more than 20,000 votes ahead of the second place Liberal challenger.
Both the Liberals and the Greens should be proud of their results tonight.
The Liberals mounted a strong traditional campaign and focused their national spotlight on the riding, including visits from a dozen Liberal MPs. Some Liberal Party supporters will blame vote-splitting for their defeat in the by-election, but comments from Ottawa MP David McGuinty and leadership candidate Justin Trudeau derailed their message during the final week of the campaign.
Mr. Turner’s campaign mounted the strongest challenge that the Green Party ever has in Alberta. The urban sustainability advocate’s unconventionally and energetic campaign attracted legions of supporters and volunteers, many whom had never been involved in federal politics before.
This by-election provides some interesting lessons for the moderate and progressive opposition parties looking to defeat the Tories in the next general election. First, not all parties opposed to the Conservatives stand for identical ideas or policies. Second, no opposition party is entitled to opposition votes. Votes must be earned. And third, not all opposition parties are equally appealing to Conservative voters looking for an alternative. As has been pointed out by some political pundits, the Green Party attracted large swaths of disenchanted Conservative voters in Calgary-Centre.
The Conservatives are still the dominant political force in Calgary, but this by-election sends a message that they can no longer take the entire city for granted. Signalled by the election of Naheed Nenshi as Mayor in 2010, a new base of moderate and progressive voters in the city’s urban core are not afraid of flexing their electoral muscle and are not reluctant to look at other options on the federal level.
Voters in Calgary-Centre will mark their ballots tomorrow in what has become a unexpected hotly contested by-election in the centre of Alberta’s largest city.
The race should have been a cake-walk for the Conservatives, who have held the riding in its many forms for more than forty-years, but it was not to be. Soon after the by-election was called four weeks ago, polls found that the Conservative Party’s 40% margin of victory from the 2011 election was quickly evaporating.
Of the three polls released over the course of the campaign, twofound a three-way race with Conservative Joan Crockatt only slightly ahead of the Liberal Party’s Harvey Locke and fast-paced Green Party candidate Chris Turner, who had moved from a distant third over the summer to a contender in November.
All polls have shown Ms. Crockatt in the lead, so it is difficult to say whether any opposition candidate really has a opportunity to defeat her.
MP Diane Ablonczy, candidate Joan Crockatt, and Justice Minister Jonathan Denis (photo from Ms. Crockatt’s Facebook Page).
Ms. Crockatt’s campaign has proven to be less than spectacular. Despite missing numerous public forums and arousing the ire of popular Mayor Naheed Nenshi, the Conservatives will hope that the power of incumbency, government, and a strategy focused on door-knocking will pay off.
If she is elected tomorrow, I would not be surprised to see Ms. Crockatt quickly elevated to the front and centre of the Conservative caucus in Ottawa. It will not be long before she becomes one of the more prominent combative and partisan voices in the House of Commons.
Former Prime Minister Paul Martin and Harvey Locke (photo from Mr. Locke’s Facebook Page)
A seasoned environmental lobbyist and lawyer, I have little doubt that Mr. Locke would be a strong voice on behalf of Calgary-Centre the House of Commons. Sensing an opportunity in this by-election, legions of federal Liberals have dropped into the riding. Since the by-election was called, I suspect more federal Liberal MPs have visited the riding since the party held their leadership convention at the Saddledome in 1990. The election of Mr. Locke would give the federal Liberals a toe-hold in Calgary, a city where they have not elected an MP since 1968.
If elected, Mr. Locke could add a level of pan-Canadian maturity to the Liberal opposition in Ottawa, an attribute which, as evidenced by comments from David McGuinty and Justin Trudeau, is lacking.
Chris Turner (standing on a soapbox) and Elizabeth May.
Urban sustainability advocate Mr. Turner represents a generational change in federal politics. He is an ideas-guy whose political past and future is not tied to traditional partisan politics. Mr. Turner talks less about traditional politics and more about sustainability of communities, cities, and about what creates quality of life on the street-level. These are all critical issues that should be discussed in our national capital, but rarely are.
Despite a brief foray into the world of negative advertising, Mr. Turner’s campaign has arguably been the most exciting and unconventional of the by-election.
Dan Meades with Halifax NDP MP Megan Leslie (Photo from Mr. Meades’ Twitter Feed).
Dan Meades, the little-talked-about NDP candidate, has done incredible work in Calgary-Centre through his work as director of Vibrant Communities Calgary. While initially coming out strong over the summer, the NDP hampered their chances by not choosing a candidate until days after the by-election had been called. Mr. Meades should have been a contender.
As was the case in the 2010 mayoral election and the 2012 provincial election, voters in Calgary have becoming increasingly unpredictable. As with most by-elections, voters have an opportunity to both focus on the individual candidates and send the governing party a message without changing which party holds power in Ottawa. This race is about Calgary-Centre, and tomorrow we will discover whether Calgary voters will continue their streak of unpredictability.
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With the vote happening tomorrow, this should be one of my final posts focusing on the Calgary-Centre by-election. While it has been incredibly refreshing to take a break from writing about the theatrics of Question Period or the scandal-du-jour in the provincial capital, I look forward to returning my focus to the more substantial issues dominating Alberta’s political scene.
Like anyone who arrived in Calgary Centre after 1968, I’ve never witnessed a Liberal, NDP or Green candidate win an election. It’s understandable that some progressives feel that their vote does not count.
Over the past four decades, progressive and conservative parties have each earned significant support in Calgary Centre (with usually around a 45% to 55% split respectively). The multiplicity of progressive parties has ensured a Conservative Party of Canada victory in recent elections.
Some progressives were happy with our former MP, Lee Richardson, who was generally regarded as a moderate voice in Government. Then along came Joan Crockatt. She is the Conservative candidate in the Calgary Centre who is reportedly “an avid cheerleader for the Wildrose Party” and who has said the role of a backbench MP is to “support the Prime Minister in whatever way that he thinks”.
In spite of the history, the communities that make up Calgary Centre have proven the ability to defy expectations and elect progressive candidates. In 2000, progressives united behind the Right Honourable Joe Clark, a former Prime Minister and who was generally regarded as the consensus progressive candidate, to oust the incumbent Reform MP Eric Lowther. Liberal Kent Hehr was recently re-elected as MLA by many Calgary Centre residents. In 2010, a majority of Calgary Centre residents voted for Naheed Nenshi for Mayor—and there were 15 candidates on the ballot!
Can progressives do it again in Calgary Centre?
1CalgaryCentre
1CalgaryCentre is an independent progressive campaign that was launched this summer by a group of volunteers. Our idea is pretty simple: engage progressives in a dialogue in the months before the by-election and then hold a vote to select a consensus progressive candidate. We use the term progressive broadly, including the centre-left parties, progressive conservatives, independents and post-partisans.
The parties (and voters) would in no way be bound by the 1CalgaryCentre vote. Rather, our goal is to send a clear signal to progressive voters about the relative strength of the progressive candidates. In other words, if you believe you’re the strongest progressive candidate, prove it with 1CalgaryCentre.
This summer we approached the national leadership of each of the progressive political parties. We invited them to participate in a process to select a consensus progressive candidate in Calgary Centre. For the most part, the parties were not interested in engaging with us. They went forward and nominated candidates.
We then turned our attention to working with the local campaigns. The progressive parties have nominated three impressive candidates: conservationist Harvey Locke for the Liberals; sustainability author Chris Turner for the Greens; and poverty reduction advocate Dan Meades for the NDP. Any of these candidates would work hard to promote progressive policies if elected as MP for Calgary Centre.
The Process
Since August 2012, 1CalgaryCentre has engaged progressives through social media, online forums and an “unconference”. We are reaching over 37,000 people through our social media channels. Stories about 1Calgary centre have appeared in the Globe and Mail, FFWD, Huffington Post and most other media covering the by-election. Our video got the internet excited about the CBC.
1CalgaryCentre has proposed a progressive primary—an online vote to be held on November 22nd. Why hold a vote? To give progressives a clear signal of who has the best chance of winning the by-election on November 26th.
I’ve had the pleasure of personally engaging with people from all of the progressive parties about 1CalgaryCentre. There is some interest and some apprehension about our process. Here are the most common questions that I’ve heard:
What if my candidate doesn’t win the 1CalgaryCentre vote? The candidates and voters are free to decide what their next steps after the 1CalgaryCentre process.
Why don’t progressives just get behind my candidate, as they have the best chance of winning?
I’ve heard this message from all of the progressive parties. My response: prove it. If your candidate is able to take on a 40-year conservative dynasty in Calgary Centre, they should be able to establish that they have more support than the other progressive candidates in an online vote.
Isn’t an online vote susceptible to tampering?
Political parties regularly use online voting for their leadership elections. 1CalgaryCentre is using a combination of high-tech and hands-on tools to ensure the integrity of our process. Every registration is reviewed by at least two people.
I heard that 1CalgaryCentre is really a front for party X?
1CalgaryCentre is a registered third party with Elections Canada. Pursuant to the Canada Elections Act political parties cannot register as third parties. Our volunteers have been completely transparent about their diverse interests and backgrounds—one even revealed that he once cooked dinner for Jack Layton and Olivia Chow. Disclosure!
1CalgaryCentre may or may not achieve its goal of electing a progressive MP on November 26th. However, we have helped people believe that electing a progressive MP in Calgary Centre is possible. The polls show this. Social media shows this. Mainstream media admits that the Conservatives could lose in a historic upset.
We don’t believe that doing the same thing over and over again in Calgary Centre elections and expecting different results makes sense.
We won’t subscribe to the narcissism of small differences between the progressive parties.
Instead, register with 1CalgaryCentre to try something new on November 22. We just might make history in Calgary Centre. Again.
Jeremy Barretto is an environmental lawyer and long time Calgary Centre resident. He is a member of the 1CalgaryCentre team.
Calgary-Centre By-Election candidates Joan Crockatt, Harvey Locke, and Chris Turner.
With one week left until voting day, a new survey released by Forum Research continues to show a three-way race in the Calgary-Centre by-election between Conservative Joan Crockatt, Liberal Harvey Locke, and Green Chris Turner.
As reported by the Globe & Mail, the survey of randomly selected Calgary-Centre voters released on November 17 showed Ms. Crockatt with 35% to 30% for Mr. Locke and 25% for Mr. Turner. New Democrat Dan Meades was in fourth place with 8%.
Another survey from Forum Research released last weekshowed Ms. Crockatt with 32% to 30% for Mr. Locke and 23% for Mr. Turner. New Democrat Dan Meades was in fourth place with 12%. Margins of error for these types of surveys typically range around five percentage points.
As I wrote last week, it appears that within a matter of months, the 40% margin of victory earned by former Conservative MP Lee Richardson in the 2011 federal election and 23% margin for the Conservatives found in a September survey of Calgary-Centre voters may have completely evaporated.
It is always important to approach surveys, like this interactive voice response (IVR) survey, with a healthy dose of skepticism. Survey results are a snapshot of the opinions of a surveyed group of individuals at a given moment in time. This said, surveys like this one can be an important indicator of trends.
The drop in Conservative Party support has led political watchers to wonder if this by-election could result in the election of the first non-Conservative Member of Parliament in Calgary since 1968. The potential for an upset has certainly bolstered the resolve of Ms. Crockatt’s two main opponents, Mr. Locke and Mr. Turner.
More than 500 tickets were sold for Chris Turner’s “Turning Point” rally on Saturday night (photo from Turner 4 YYC Facebook Page)
Ms. Crockatt earnedmixedreviews after participating in her first all-candidates forum at the East Village Neighbourhood Association on Saturday afternoon. This was expected to be the only time the Conservative candidate will publicly engage with her opponents at an organized forum.
There was some disappointment that Ms. Crockatt chose to not participate in a forum focusing on civic issues and hosted by popular Mayor Naheed Nenshion Sunday afternoon. Mayor Nenshi penned a column in Friday’s Calgary Herald highlighting the important role the federal government can play in municipalities.
On Saturday night, Mr. Turner’s campaign hosted what might have been the biggest actual political party of this by-election. More than 500 tickets were sold to the “Turning Point” event at Scarboro United Church. The event included a performance from Jay Ingram and the Scrutineers and speeches from Green Party leader Elizabeth May and environmentalist David Suzuki. Mr. Turner also received the endorsement of local author Fred Stenson, who ran as a Liberal candidate in the recent provincial election.
Harvey Locke, MP Joyce Murray, and Senator Grant Mitchell (Photo from Harvey Locke’s Facebook Page).
Steady in second place according to two recent polls, Mr. Locke is getting some pan-Canadian support from Liberal politicians. By my count, nine of the thirty-five Liberal Members of Parliament have visited the riding, including Bob Rae, Justin Trudeau, Ralph Goodale and Senators Terry Mercer and Grant Mitchell, and leadership candidate Martha Hall Findlay. Vancouver-Quadra MP Joyce Murray made her second visit to Calgary-Centre this weekend and Mr. Trudeau is expected to return to the riding this week before attending a rally in Edmonton. Liberal MLAs Kent Hehr, Darshan Kang, and Raj Sherman have also campaigned with Mr. Locke.
A fun fact and perhaps the closest comparison we have to this federal by-election in Calgary-Centre are by-elections that have taken place on the provincial level. In the four provincial by-elections held since 1992, opposition candidates were elected in three. In 1992, Calgary-Buffalo was held by Liberal Gary Dickson after the death of two-term Liberal MLA Sheldon Chumir. In 1995, the Progressive Conservative Shiraz Shariff narrowly held on to the Calgary-McCall constituency following the death of the former PC MLA.
The two most recent provincial by-elections saw opposition candidates elected in constituencies formerly held by the governing PCs. Liberal Craig Cheffins narrowly defeated the PC candidate to win a 2007 by-election in Calgary-Elbow, the constituency formerly represented by Premier Ralph Klein (Alison Redford would narrowly defeat Mr. Cheffins in the 2008 general election). In 2009, former Wildrose MLA Paul Hinman won a hotly contested three-way race in Calgary-Glenmore, defeating high-profile Tory Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart and Liberal Avalon Roberts.
What does this mean for Calgary-Centre? At least when it comes to provincial by-elections, Calgarians have a track-record of sending the government a message.
Calgary-Centre By-Election candidates Joan Crockatt, Harvey Locke, and Chris Turner.
A new survey conducted by Forum Research shows a three-way race in the Calgary-Centre by-election between Conservative Joan Crockatt, Liberal Harvey Locke, and Green Chris Turner.
As reported by the Globe & Mail, the November survey of 376 randomly selected residents in Calgary-Centre showed Ms. Crockatt with 32% to 30% for Mr. Locke and 23% for Mr. Turner. New Democrat Dan Meades was in fourth place with 12%.
The survey is considered to be accurate by plus or minus five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
If this new survey is to be believed, then the November 26 vote could be much more exciting than most political watchers, including myself, had previously predicted.
A similar survey conducted by Forum Research in October found Ms. Crockatt with 48% to 28% for Mr. Locke, 11% for Mr. Turner, and 8% for Mr. Meades. Another survey from Forum Research conducted in August found the Conservatives with 44% to 21% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP, and 12% for the Greens.
It appears that within a matter of months, the 40% margin of victory earned by former Conservative MP Lee Richardson in the 2011 federal election and 23% margin for the Conservatives found in the September survey may have completely evaporated.
It is always important to approach surveys, like this interactive voice response (IVR) survey, with a healthy dose of skepticism. Survey results are a snapshot of the opinions of a surveyed group of individuals at a given moment in time. This said, surveys like this one can be an important indicator of trends.
A close race could increase the importance of the 1CalgaryCentre campaign if progressive voters see an opportunity to coalesce behind one of the main opposition candidates. Although 1CalgaryCentre was initially ignored and ridiculed by the campaigns, it has played a central role in the debate around vote-splitting in the riding. On November 22, the group will hold its “selection vote” which allows voters in Calgary-Centre to register and select their choice from the progressive candidates running in the by-election.
Harvey Locke and Bob Rae.
As this contest enters its final two weeks, Ms. Crockatt’s two main opponents have taken aim at their mutual opponent and each other.
Ms. Crockatt’s tacit support of the Wildrose Party in the spring provincial election appears to have driven a number of moderate Tories away from her campaign in the downtown Calgary riding. Her campaign manager, William McBeath, is the Wildrose Party’s Political Operations and Communications Director.
Mr. Turner’s campaign has criticized Mr. Locke for not living in the riding (he lives in Banff) and Mr. Locke’s campaign has accused Mr. Turner of splitting the anti-conservative vote in the riding. All campaigns have made use of social media, Mr. Locke’s campaign recently launched a Tumblr for Calgarians to show their support for his campaign.
While Ms. Crockatt’s and Mr. Locke’s campaigns have mainly focused on the tried and true strategy of doorknocking, Mr. Turner has incorporated some tactical and guerrilla style techniques into his campaign, which has helped create an air of excitement around the Green Party candidate (Mr. Turner has been seen delivering flash speeches on Calgary transit buses and holding numerous intimate coffee and wine and cheese parties).
Calgary-Glenmore PC MLA Linda Johnson (left) stopped by Chris Turner’s (right) campaign office to visit her daughter (centre), who is volunteering on the Green campaign (Photo by @rottonchild on Instagram).
Meanwhile, all parties have benefited from high-profile visits. Immigration Minister Jason Kenney met with groups of seniors in the riding with Ms Crockatt today. Conservative MPs Michelle Rempel and Blake Richards joined Mr. Crockatt on the campaign trail last week
Outgoing Liberal leader Bob Rae campaigned with Mr. Locke today and leadership candidate Justin Trudeau is making a second appearance in Calgary-Centre on November 19. Former Ontario MP Martha Hall Findlay is expected to used Calgary as her launch pad into the Liberal leadership campaign.
Mr. Turner has benefited from the support of key organizers from Mayor Naheed Nenshi‘s 2010 election campaign. On November 17, Green Party leader Elizabeth May and famous environmentalist David Suzuki will be attending a “Turning Point” rally at Scarboro United Church in support of Mr. Turner’s candidacy. Mr. Turner was event pictured in a photo online with Calgary-Glenmore PC MLA Linda Johnson, whose daughter is volunteering with the Green Party campaign.
Meanwhile, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair made an appearance at a packed rally tonight to support Mr. Meades campaign in Calgary-Centre. Mr. Meades, the director of Vibrant Communities Calgary, was also joined on the campaign trail by Edmonton-Calder MLA David Eggenlast week.
The by-election in Calgary-Centre is in full-swing with accusations and high-profile visits becoming a distinguishing characteristic of the campaign in advance of the November 26 vote.
1CalgaryCentre, the group bidding to unite progressive voters behind a single candidate, is becoming the source of much online frustration by both conservative and non-conservatives involved in this by-election.
Mr. Carter is best known for the roles he played in Mayor Naheed Nenshi and Premier Alison Redford‘s successful election campaigns. Mr. Hawkes is a prominent Calgary lawyer, son of former Progressive Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hawkes, and ex-husband of Premier Redford. According to 1CalgaryCentre, the two men have not been involved with the group.
A partisan rift between many provincial and federal Conservatives was perpetuated when many federal Tory supporters, including Ms. Crockatt, were seen by provincial Tories as tacitly supporting the right-wing Wildrose Party in their bid to unseat the long-governing PC Party. A prolific tweeter and political commentator until her recent candidacy, Ms. Crockatt has avoided the online fray created by her supporters.
Meanwhile, supporters of Liberal Party candidate Harvey Locke are claiming that the 1CalgaryCentre group will inevitably endorse author and urban sustainability advocate Chris Turner, the Green Party candidate. While a recent poll suggests Mr. Locke is the leading opposition candidate, Mr. Turner’s campaign is generating more online buzz and excitement than any of the the candidates.
Results of the Forum Research poll are based on the total sample of 343 voters had a margin of error of +/- 5% 19 times our of 10. As we all know, polls are a snapshot of voters opinion at a certain moment in time. There is still twenty days left until the by-election day.
MLA Darshan Kang and Harvey Locke (photo from Mr. Locke’s Facebook Page).
Mr. Locke was joined on the campaign trail by Calgary-McCall Liberal MLA Darshan Kang last week and has been campaigning on the slogan “entrepreneurial progressive voice for Calgary-Centre.” Liberal leadership candidate Justin Trudeau brought some star power to Mr. Locke’s campaign when he visited the riding last month and sources suggest that he may stop by again when he is in Alberta later this month (he will be holding a rally in Edmonton on November 20).
Chris Turner (standing on a soapbox) and Elizabeth May (photo from Mr. Turner’s Facebook Page).
Green Party leader and British Columbia MP Elizabeth May paid her second visit to support Mr. Turner’s campaign and attended a “soapbox” event in Central Memorial Park. On November 17, Ms, May and famous environmentalist David Suzuki will be attending a “Turning Point” rally supporting Mr. Turner’s candidacy at Scarboro United Church.
MP Diane Ablonczy, candidate Joan Crockatt, and Justice Minister Jonathan Denis (photo from Ms. Crockatt’s Facebook Page).
Calgary Conservative MP Diane Ablonczy and provincial Justice Minister Jonathan Denis hit the campaign trail with Ms. Crockatt last week. While a few Conservative politicians have stopped by the campaign in Calgary-Centre, political watchers are beginning to quietly speculate about Prime Minister Stephen Harper‘s absence from the campaign in the downtown Calgary riding.
Davenport NDP MP Andrew Cash was in Calgary last weekend to help out Mr. Meades’ campaign. The official opposition Heritage critic, Mr. Cash attended a town hall forum on internet privacy and pub night jam session at the Marda Loop Community Association Hall.
Also running in the by-election are Progressive Canadian candidate Ben Christensen and Independent candidate Antoni Grochowski. A perennial election candidate, Mr. Grochowski ran unsuccessfully for Alderman in the 2010 municipal elections, as an Independent candidate in in Calgary-Southeast during the 2011 federal election, and an EverGreen Party candidate in Calgary-Acadia during the 2012 provincial election.
Can the online campaign 1 Calgary Centre succeed in its goal to unite (or crowd-surf) progressive voters behind one candidate in the impending Calgary-Centre by-election? It is not impossible, but it is improbable.
The existence of a Naheed Nenshi, Linda Duncan, or Chima Nkemdirim style of candidate who progressive voters could unite behind could make Conservative organizers lose some sleep, but that candidate has yet to emerge and the December 4 deadline for the by-election to be called is quickly approaching. Much like the failure of the Democratic Renewal Project to unite parties on the provincial level, the reality of deep-rooted partisan associations driven by personalities who are committed to both brand and ideological are large challenges facing any group wanting to unite non-Conservative voters in this country.
Joe Clark
Some supporters of the online 1 Calgary Centre movement have looked past the large plurality of votes earned by Conservative candidates in recent elections and point to the unlikely election of Joe Clark in the 2000 federal election. Keep in mind that Mr. Clark was no ordinary candidate. Mr. Clark was a former Prime Minister, senior cabinet minister, leader of the national Progressive Conservative Party, and he benefited from national profile, a televised leaders’ debate, and broad and diverse team of organizers in Calgary-Centre. Even with all this, he still only barely unseated Canadian Alliance Member of Parliament Eric Lowther. Mr. Clark was also a Conservative.
So perhaps Mr. Clark is not the best example. Of course, the by-election campaign has yet to officially begin and the final decision remains in the hands of voters in Calgary-Centre.
As the Conservative candidate in a riding that has only elected Conservative MPs since 1965, Ms. Crockatt is the safe bet to win (former Mayor Harry Hays was elected as a Liberal in 1963 when this riding was part of the larger Calgary-South riding). But being the safe bet does not always ensure a smooth road to victory, especially when said candidate has a somewhat controversial political past.
A number of provincial PC supporters have voiced frustration with Mr. Crockatt’s politics and her tacit support of Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party in the recent provincial election. A number of prominent provincial PCs, including Tourism Minister Christine Cusanelli, campaigned for Ms. Crockatt’s challengers in the Conservative nomination contest.
On September 22, the Liberal Party will be holding its nomination meeting to select a by-election candidate. The three approved candidates seeking this nomination are educator and TEDxCalgary co-founder Rahim Sajan, lawyer and conservationist Harvey Locke, and businessman Drew Atkins. A fourth candidate, who I understand has yet to be approved by party central, is Steve Turner.
Naheed Nenshi
According to Liberal blogger Vincent St. Pierre, Mr. Locke’s campaign has attracted the support of high-profile Liberal Party organizer Donn Lovett. Mr. Lovett is known for his involvement successful election campaigns of Gary Dickson, Dave Taylor, Craig Cheffins, and Mr. Clark. More recently, he managed the unsuccessful mayoral campaign of Barb Higgins, in which Ms. Crockatt was the media spokesperson.
Chatter on Twitter last week suggested that political spin-master Stephen Carter was involved in the campaign of Mr. Atkins, which turned out to be a false rumours. Both Mr. Lovett and Mr. Carter were involved in Mr. Clark’s successful Calgary-Centre campaign in 2000.
Chris Turner
Green Party leader Elizabeth May was in Calgary earlier this month to congratulate popular local author Chris Turner on his acclamation as the Green Party candidate. An award-winning author, Mr. Turner is the co-founder of CivicCamp and was a board member of Sustainable Calgary from 2008 to 2011. Oil City might not seem like prosperous territory for the Green Party, but I would not be surprised to see Mr. Turner do well when the ballots are counted.
Past provincial New Democrat candidate Brian Malkinson is the first candidate to publicly announce he is seeking the yet to be scheduled federal NDP nomination. Running as the NDP candidate in Calgary-North West in the 2012 provincial election, Mr. Malkinson earned 3.17% of the vote. NDP leader Thomas Mulcair was expected to attend an NDP fundraiser in Calgary on September 21, but the event has been postponed. He will be in Edmonton this weekend for the annual conference of provincial New Democrats.
With the Conservative candidate chosen and widely expected to win the upcoming by-election, attention will now shift to the opposition party candidates. The New Democrats have yet to select a candidate and no prospective candidates have made their intentions public. Past candidate William Hamilton has announced his intentions to seek the Green Party nomination and popular local writer Chris Turner has expressed interest in that party’s nomination.
Chima Nkemdirim
Despite already having two capable candidates – Rahim Sajan and Harvey Locke – approved to seek the Liberal Party nomination, some party activists are concerned that their central party is holding out for a big-name star candidate to swoop into the downtown Calgary riding. These activists suggest that the Liberal Party is hoping that Chima Nkemdirim, chief of staff to mayor Naheed Nenshi, will change his mind and seek the nomination. Others suggest that the party is hoping to recruit a star candidate, like Olympic gold medalist Mark Tewkesbury, to carry the Liberal Party banner in the by-election.
This is reminiscent of the Calgary-Centre Liberal nomination before the 2004 election, when local lawyer Julia Turnbull, who had been campaigning for the nomination, was nearly pushed out of the race in favour of former Calgary police chief Christine Silverberg, who the central party had hoped to appoint as the candidate.
A new group, calling themselves 1 Calgary Centre, has formed in hopes of mobilizing progressive voters within Calgary-Centre to support and elect a consensus candidate in the upcoming by-election.
The Greatest Show on Earth, also known as the Calgary Stampede, kicked-off celebrating its 100th anniversary this weekend. Between the chuck wagons and rodeo clowns, politicians off all stripes will drop into Calgary over the next week to kiss babies and grill pancakes.
Twitter was, well, atwitter with chatter comparing the level of applause received by Premier Alison Redford and Wildrose leader Danielle Smith at Prime Minster Stephen Harper‘s annual Stampede BBQ. It sounds silly, because it is, and it signals how deep the divide between Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose partisans are in this province.
Here are some photos that were floating around social media networks this weekend. Check out Calgary Grit this week for his annual collection of political photos from the Stampede.
Calgary-Fort PC MLA Wayne Cao, Tourism Minister Christine Cusanelli, Calgary-North West PC MLA Sandra Jensen, and Premier Alison Redford. (via Wayne Cao on Facebook)Edmonton-Beverly Clareview NDP MLA Deron Bilous and Longueuil–Pierre- Boucher NDP MP Pierre Nantel. (via Deron Bilous on Facebook)Justice Minister Jonathan Denis. (via Jonathan Denis on Facebook)Alberta Liberal leader Raj Sherman. (via Raj Sherman on Facebook)Wildrose leader Danielle Smith and federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May (via via @katyanderson)
The bleeding of large portions of the PC Party’s rural social conservative wing to Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Party in the April 2011 election could be a blessing for Premier Redford and her government. Keeping the Wildrose Party electorally contained in the rural south and central regions of the province, while focusing on issues that will appeal to the rapidly growing and diverse urban populations in Grande Prairie, Lethbridge, Red Deer, Calgary, Edmonton could be a solid strategy to provide a more forward-looking government agenda and preserve the PC Party’s electoral dominance in the coming decades.
In the three years leading into this year’s election, the Wildrose proved extremely successful in using wedge issues like property rights and the construction of electrical transmission lines to drive traditional PC voters in rural southern and central Alberta constituencies into their electoral camp. If they have not already, the PC brain trust should take note of similar strategies that will keep the Wildrose Party at bay in urban centres.
No longer forced to appease a more conservative rural base of MLAs and supporters, Premier Redford has an opportunity to lead a new urban agenda for Alberta, especially with the urban-based Liberal and NDP opposition pushed to the margins. With potential strong allies in Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi and Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel, Premier Redford could make strides on issues like reinvesting in Alberta’s Heritage Fund and investing in urban public transit and transportation infrastructure.
If expected patterns of population growth continue, it is the urban areas which will receive additional constituencies in the Alberta Legislature when the boundaries are redistributed.
New cabinet:
Alison Redford – Premier
Thomas Lukaszuk – Deputy Premier
Doug Horner – Minister of Finance & President of Treasury Board
Dave Hancock – Minister of Human Services
Cal Dallas – Minister of International & Intergovernmental Relations
Diana McQueen – Minister of Environment & Sustainable Resource Development
Fred Horne – Minister of Health
Ken Hughes – Minister of Energy
Jeff Johnson – Minister of Education
Verlyn Olson – Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development
Jonathan Denis – Minister of Justice & Solicitor General
Doug Griffiths – Minister of Municipal Affairs
Robin Campbell – Minister of Aboriginal Relations
Heather Klimchuk – Minister of Culture
Manmeet Bhullar – Minister of Service Alberta
Wayne Drysdale – Minister of Infrastructure
Stephen Khan – Minister of Enterprise & Advanced Education
Ric McIver – Minister of Transportation
Christine Cusanelli – Minster of Tourism, Parks, and Recreation
With election withdrawal setting in like a bad hangover, much of the media attention this week focusedon the 38rookie MLA’s attending outgoing Speaker Ken Kowalski‘s Legislature 101 course and the resumption of inside baseball politics under the Dome.
Bridget Pastoor and Premier Alison Redford (photo from PremierofAlberta Flickr account)
Cabinet Speculation
Rumours abound about who might end up in Premier Redford’s new cabinet, which is expected to be appointed next week. While Tory stalwarts such as Dave Hancock, Doug Horner, Thomas Lukaszuk, and Doug Griffiths are almost certainly in line to keep a spot at the cabinet table, the retirement and defeat of a number of Tory MLAs and cabinet minister may have opened spots for new faces at the table.
MLA Pay Recommendations
Retired Supreme Court Justice John Majorreleased his recommendations to reform how MLA’s are paid. Regardless of which recommendations are adopted, this is the type of issue that will never really go away (someone will always be displeased with how much or how little our elected officials are paid).
We ask (nay, demand) our public office holders to do their very best 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. A $134,000 base salary does not seem unreasonable to me.
Gene Zwozdesky
Electing a new Speaker
The first order of business when the Assembly convenes this Spring will be the election of a new Speaker for the first time since 1997. Candidates in the running include Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman and Tory MLA’s Gene Zwozdesky, Wayne Cao, and Mary Anne Jablonski.
Premier’s new Chief of Staff
Premier Alison Redford appointed Calgary lawyer Farouk Adatia as her Chief of Staff. Mr. Adatia replaces Stephen Carter, who was temporarily replaced by Elan McDonald in March 2012 (Mr. Carter took a leave of absence to work on the PC Party campaign). Mr. Adatia was the unsuccessful PC candidate in Calgary-Shaw in the recent election and had previously attempted to win the PC nomination in Calgary-Hawkwood.
Mandel to Smith: Pick up the Phone
In the most bizarre story of the week, Ms. Smith told the media that she had asked Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi to “broker a peace summit” between herself and Mayor Stephen Mandel. Over the past three years, the Calgary-based Ms. Smith has publicly opposed some high-profile decisions made by Edmonton City Council.
Mayor Mandel quite correctly responded to Ms. Smith’s “peace summit” comment by saying if she wanted to talk with him she could pick up the phone. One can only imagine how this relationship would have started if Ms. Smith had actually been elected Premier last week.
Alberta is the most urbanized province in Canada (81% of the population living in urban areas) and the Edmonton-Calgary corridor is one of the most urbanized regions in Canada.
Looking to put cities on the provincial election agenda, Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi is using the CitiesMatter.ca website to weigh in on why it is important that Albertans know where the provincial parties and their leaders stand on the future of our urban centres. Mayor Nenshi has sent surveys to each of the parties asking them about their positions on urban issues. The surveys responses are expected to be posted on the CitiesMatter.ca website when they are returned.
Dr. Urquhart correctly points out that even after the federal and provincial governments have downloaded more services and responsibilities to our municipalities, our cities receive a pittance of the revenue collected from Alberta taxpayers (just 8% in Alberta):
“From this small pot of money our cities must try to finance more than half of the infrastructure we use every day.”
Enthusiast of everything Edmonton, Mack Male, has joined a group of under-40 Albertans who are trying to put some important issues on the provincial agenda, like the expansion of Light Rail Transit in our major cities:
Edmonton and Calgary are often thought of as “car cities” but the desire to change is strong. Both cities have transportation plans that call for the expansion of light rail transit. Edmontonians consistently rank public transportation as the most important issue that the City should address. Most recently, a Leger Marketing poll showed that two thirds of Edmontonians would like to see the province fast-track its share of the LRT expansion to Mill Woods. In Calgary, Mayor Naheed Nenshi himself has been leading the charge to convince the province to provide long term and predictable funding for transit infrastructure in Alberta’s large cities.
Edmonton Journal columnist David Staples has suggested that the Wildrose Party’s proposed fiscal plan would axe the much needed transit funding, something that supporters of Danielle Smith has disputed (having an anti-LRT former mayoral candidate on her slate of candidates surely does not help reassure their critics). The Wildrose Party would cancel the existing Green Trip funding for future projects, but slot 10% of provincial tax revenues and 10% of surplus money for municipalities, which I understand could actually be less than the amount currently received through regular funding and special funds like GreenTrip (please correct me if I am mistaken).
In their “Yes!” platform, Dr. Raj Sherman‘s Alberta Liberals have called for the drafting of City Charters, the creation of a Municipal Heritage Fund (which would include direct funding for community associations), and the reinstatement of Community Lottery Boards. As a former Edmonton City Councillor, NDP leader Brian Mason, supports an increased in funding for the GreenTrip fund. Mr. Mason was also one of the only MLA’s who spoke out against provincial funding for Daryl Katz‘s new Downtown Arena.
Some people will suggest that future Wildrose Party government heavy with conservative rural MLA’s would not understand the needs of our big cities. Although there is certainly a geographical divide in our politics (urban and rural, Calgary and Edmonton, small city and big city), fanning these flames will not move our province forward.
Urban enthusiasts worried about rural decision makers should remember that only a short time ago, it was a rural conservative leader, Ed Stelmach, whose government made some of the most important urban infrastructure investments of the past decade, including the creation of the GreenTrip fund.
Following claims of voting irregularities at the recently held Calgary-West Progressive Conservative nomination meeting, Tory sources are saying that Premier Alison Redford may find a new candidate to carry her party’s banner in that constituency.
The hard fought nomination battle saw former Calgary-McCall MLA Shiraz Shariffshock political watchers by defeating past Alberta Health Services Chairman Ken Hughes. A former Member of Parliament, Mr. Hughes was a member of Premier Redford’s transition team and was seen as a star candidate for the PCs.
The constituency is currently represented by Finance Minister Ron Liepert, who is not seeking re-election. Sources say that the new candidate could be someone other than Mr. Hughes.
This is not Mr. Shariff’s first brush with controversy. In 2008, private-citizen Naheed Nenshispoke to CBC about what he believed were irregularities carried out at the polls by Mr. Shariff’s campaign workers during the 2004 election. Mr. Shariff narrowly defeated Liberal Darshan Kang in that election (Mr. Kang later defeated Mr. Shariff in the 2008 election).
This would not be the first time the PCs have had to find a last minute replacement for a candidate in Calgary-West.
In 1997, Premier Ralph Klein‘s barber Mike Nasserstepped down as the PC candidate after it was revealed he was the subject of a city lawsuit and several complaints regarding his business proceedings. The runner-up from the previously held nomination meeting cut her Mexican vacation short to fly back and hold the party banner in the election. Karen Kryczka served two terms as MLA after that.
The Tories are also expected to appoint candidates to challenge popular Liberal MLA Kent Hehr in Calgary-Buffalo and NDP MLA Rachel Notley in Edmonton-Strathcona. No candidates entered the previously scheduled nomination contests in these two constituencies. Sources suggest that recent Calgary-McCall PC nomination candidate Jamie Lall will be appointed in Calgary-Buffalo. This will be the second consecutive election where the PCs have had to appoint a candidate to challenge Ms. Notley.
UPDATE: A media release from the PC Party says that Mr. Shariff is no longer the candidate in Calgary-West. Jamie Lall and Emerson Mayers have been appointed as PC candidates in Calgary-Buffalo and Edmonton-Strathcona. See the comment section of this blog post for the entire text of the media release.
