daveberta.ca - Alberta Politics and Elections

For those of you who are addicted as myself to election results and analysis, this is a fun little site. The site includes detailed US Presidential, Senatorial, and Gubernatorial elections for the past 50 years with interactive maps with state and county breakdowns.

Cool.

Couple of things…

– Sacked former Tory MLA Lyle Oberg is stills wants to be in the PC Leadership race. Lord only knows why he would want to lead a caucus that doesn’t want him around in the first place…

– Advanced Education Minister Dave Hancock is now officially in the race to replace Ralph Klein as PC leader.

– After 35 years out of power and 27 years since electing a single MLA, the Alberta Social Credit Party has decided that they are doing just fine on their own. On Monday, the Socreds called off merger talks with the Alberta Alliance and the Alberta Party.

Their press release stated that:

Leader Lavern Ahlstrom welcomed all Albertans disillusioned with the governing Tory Party to join the Social Credit Party, the “common sense” alternative. “Our doors are open and will always remain open,” said Ahlstrom in a reference to welcoming members of other parties who left Social Credit to return to the “mother ship.” Stressed Ahlstrom, “Social Credit has a future in today’s Alberta and Albertans deserve better.”

Welcome to the mother ship. Vote Social Credit.

It’s been a busy day, but here’s a bit of an update:

– Thanks to Grant for offering me an invitation to Lyle Oberg‘s fork in the road press conference tomorrow – unfortunately, it’s in Calgary and I’m in Edmonton. So, I don’t think I’ll be making it.

But for interest’s sake, the press conference will be held tomorrow at 2pm. I’m sure 630 CHED will be carrying it live.

– As well, I’d like to thank the legions of Oberg supporters who have leaped to the defence of their wounded candidate in the Alberta PC leadership race and decided to drown the daveberta emailbox with letters of support for Dr. Oberg.

It’s heartwarming to know that an liberalish blogger in Alberta can attract such a conservative readership following and for this, I thank you.

– Meanwhile, it looks like I’m not the only one who thinks Oberg’s PC leadership chances are next to nil at this point.

– On a non-Obergish note, if you’re interested in the goings-on in the upcoming United States Senate and House primary elections, Politics1 is a great source of information. As well, for entertainment purposes, you should take the time to visit Arnold’s Neighborhood!

– Apparently, former Prime Minister Joe Clark was on the U of A campus today. I was hoping to hop over and say hi, but I was too intrigued reading over these lovely stats. I was hoping to put another check on the list of past and present PM’s that I’ve shaken hands with (the others being Turner, Chretien, Martin, and Harper). Plus, I kind of like Clark.

-And finally, if you’ve ever wanted to meet a real life terrorist – Angela Davis, former Black Panther member, will be on campus tomorrow night for the final installment of the 2005/06 Revolutionary Speaker’s Series.

It’s been an exciting couple of days in Alberta politics as something exciting has actually happened and the humdrum boring days of King Ralph’s fiefdom have been at least temporarily interrupted. In the wake of cabinet minister and leadership candidate Lyle Oberg’s purge from the Alberta PC caucus, here are some thoughts of mine:

1. Why would Lyle Oberg still want to be Alberta PC leader after this? As far as I know, he’s still a member of the Alberta PC Party (I would assume that the caucus doesn’t have the authority to revoke his membership and that this would be up to the party executive), so technically, he could probably still run. But why in the world would he still want to be the leader of a caucus that just voted to expel him from their ranks? I know I wouldn’t.

2. If Oberg drops out, where do his supporters go? Back last fall, I attended the leadership announcement event Oberg held in Edmonton at the Zuppa Cafe (I even got a nice thank you card from him and his campaign manager afterwards). Also attending the event were former Tory MLA’s Lorne Taylor (Cypress-Medicine Hat 1993-2004), Jon Havelock (Calgary Shaw 1993-2001), and Brent Rathegeber (Edmonton Calder 2001-04), and former Liberal MLA Peter Sekulic (Edmonton Manning 1993-1997). Both Havelock and Sekulic are managing partners in Strategic Resources Inc., an Edmonton-based consulting firm with a fancy website.

I would suspect that Taylor would levitate to a more right-wing candidate like Ted Morton, but I’m really not sure about the others.

3. What do Oberg supporters do at the Alberta PC AGM on March 31-April 2nd? Well, if they were planning on supporting Klein in the leadership review vote in the first place, you can probably bet they’ve had a change of heart in the past 48 hours.

4. Oberg can re-apply to join the Alberta PC caucus in six months. Other than asking why he would want to do that after they sacked him, I think Anonymotron said it best: “What is this, a roadside suspension for impaired driving? If he’s disloyal now, what makes them think six months in the penalty box will change anything?”

5. The rumours floating that Oberg may join MLA and fourth party leader Paul Hinman in the Alberta Alliance are very interesting. My first reaction is, why not? Oberg’s new seat in the Alberta Legislature is probably going to be behind Hinman anyway, why not form a caucus?

On the other hand, I’m not convinced that Oberg would agree to play Deputy to Hinman’s Sheriff. Something about a very large political ego would suggest to me that he would resign as an MLA before playing second fiddle in a two person caucus.

6. I really think Oberg’s biggest mistake was apologizing for his comments in the first place. Had he not apologized, he still would have been sacked from caucus, but he would have looked strong for not backing down. Now, he looks weak for backing down AND getting sacked. He missed a golden opportunity to look like a real life “anti-establishment” candidate. Now he just looks like a doofus.

7. As Duncan points out, how will Oberg react to his new office? As well, I’m sure the pay cut and lack of Ministerial staff (or any legislative staff for that matter) will make him wish he hadn’t shot his mouth off last week in Brooks.

8. I would love to know what the vote numbers for and against were in the Tory caucus for his expulsion. Was there an urban-rural split? A social conservative-moderate conservative vote split? Was it a landslide? Did Oberg have ANY support in the PC caucus?

9. It should be interesting to see how his constituents in Strathmore-Brooks will react to this news.

10. Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft must be sleeping well these days. I don’t think anyone can remember the last time there was this much chaos within Alberta’s Tory establishment.

11. This could change everything for Dave Hancock‘s leadership bid. Over the past week, I was beginning to be convinced that Advanced Education Minister Dave Hancock would drop out of the race in the face of Klein’s June 1st deadline, but I now think he may stick around the racetrack. Though I don’t think he stands much of a chance at winning the leadership, I think he could probably top the list of “best Tory Premiers Alberta never had.”

12. This week delivered Obergtastic good news for Ed Stelmach. Stelmach, who resigned this week as Intergovernmental and International Affairs Minister, will have quite a bit more room to manouver in rural Alberta with the sinking of the S.S. Oberg. Keep an eye on Stelmach.

And keep an eye on Assembly Speaker Ken Kowalski – the godfather of rural Tory politics. Kowalski is keeping a very low public partisan profile these days, which leads me to think he’s up to something. All rumours point to him supporting Stelmach, which could have huge effects in a suddenly Obergless leadership race.

13. Yesterday, Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason said: “I think it’s the initiation of a reign of terror in the Progressive Conservative Party. I think Josef Stalin would never dirty his hands either. He’d leave it to the party members to do it. That doesn’t make it right.“

I think if Klein were Stalin, Mason wouldn’t be around anymore. Out of all the things Mason could have said, I think he picked one of the most ridiculous options.

Former Tory MLA, PC leadership candidate, and Infrastructure & Transportation Minister Lyle Oberg released the following statement today, following his sacking from the Alberta PC Caucus last night. It’s pretty tame speech for someone who just got sacked from a caucus he really wanted to lead…

Oberg: Alberta’s clearly dejected newly Independent MLA.

LYLE OBERG REMARKS
MARCH 24, 2006

Let me begin my comments by saying that I am and I have always been committed to the future of Alberta and to the Progressive conservative Party. I strongly believe that the province of Alberta is at a critical juncture – so is the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta.

In the past week, I have talked about some issues I am passionate about. But I also recognize that this enthusiasm and frustration was communicated inappropriately.

I consider the PC party to be like a large extended family. From time to time disagreements arise within any family, and it is at those times that certain things can be said – spoken from the heart – that cannot be taken back. For that I apologize to my Caucus colleagues and the Premier.

I left my career as a doctor and entered Politics to join the Progressive Conservative Party under Ralph Klein’s leadership. I was proud to serve in senior portfolios in the Klein government over the past decade. In all my portfolios – Family and Social Services, Learning, and Infrastructure and Transportation, I have always had the best interests of Albertans as my top priority.

My decision to run in the leadership race is fueled by this same passion.

When our Premier announced during the 2004 provincial election that he would not run
again, it opened the door for potential candidates to begin their work. Albertan’s deserve to have the greatest number of ideas presented to them so they can make the best choices. We need to improve our healthcare system, we need to make wise investments in Infrastructure and address the critical issues such as education and training as well as establishing a sustainable Municipal funding framework.

You all know the events of the past couple of days. It has been a difficult time within caucus. Some Government initiatives in the past few months have been hampered due to distractions caused by questions about the leadership race the Party faces. That is likely to worsen. Although I was disappointed with the decision of my colleagues yesterday, I also respect their right to make it. I know they were placed into a difficult position and that their decision was not taken lightly.

Given the urgency of the challenges that face the Province and also the amazing opportunities that lie before us, the impact of a two year leadership race must seriously be considered. The vote on April 1st is not a referendum on the Premier’s leadership; the Premier has already said he is not running again. The Vote at our AGM is a vote on WHEN the Leadership race should occur. What is best for Alberta must be at the heart of everything our Party and Government decides.

I will be taking the weekend to talk things over with my family, friends, and supporters and I will be holding a press conference next week. I would like to thank everyone who has called me today – I sincerely appreciate your support and words of encouragement.

I’ll be really looking to see what he does next week. More commentary on this soon….

K, it’s from 630CHED, so the credibility of the article may be in question, but still…

Oberg to Alliance party?
Mar, 24 2006 – 12:10 PM

EDMONTON/630 CHED – The leader of the Alberta Alliance Party is throwing down the welcome mat for Lyle Oberg after he was ousted from the government caucus and stripped of his cabinet post.

Alliance Leader Paul Hinman says he’s hearing rumours that Oberg is being urged by at least one of his supporters to join the Alliance, rather than sit as an independent.

Hinman says he doesn’t condone Oberg speaking out against his own party, but the Alliance Leader says the former cabinet minister may want to challenge the government from the outside.

Hinman says he’s also eager to talk with any other disenchanted government members who might want to cross the floor of the legislature and join the Alliance.

Well, it has happened, the extremely rare and elusive “shake up” in Alberta Conservative politics… Infrastructure and Transportation Minister and PC leadership hopeful Lyle Oberg has been officially booted from cabinet and suspended from the PC caucus…

Alta. minister Oberg loses rank over remarks about premier
Click here to find out more!

The Canadian Press
Published: Thursday, March 23, 2006

EDMONTON — Alberta Tory leadership contender Lyle Oberg was suspended indefinitely from caucus and stripped of his cabinet post Thursday over remarks he made about Premier Ralph Klein.

Deputy premier Shirley McClellan made the announcement after an emergency meeting at the legislature that lasted well into the evening.

The furore arose after Oberg told his constituency association in Brooks he wouldn’t ask members to support Klein during an upcoming leadership review. Read le rest ici.

(1000% Props to Duncan who beat me to the punch in posting the story!)

(PROPS UPDATE: Upon further examination, I’ve discovered that Allie beat Ducan to the punch. So, 5000% props for Allie for beating both Duncan and I to the blogging punch. And yes, Duncan can still keep his 1000% props as he still beat me to the punch).

The Alberta Tory caucus is holding an emergency caucus meeting today following what shall now be known as the “Prince Oberg threat” – Infrastructure and Transportation Minister and PC leadership candidate Lyle Oberg has threatened PC leader Ralph Klein.

Strong political whispers are saying that the Tory caucus is currently meeting as I blog to decide whether Oberg should be kicked out of the Tory caucus.

The Edmonton Journal reported on the Oberg incident, which occurred at a meeting of the PC Constituency Association in Strathmore-Brooks:

Oberg went on to say “there is a leadership vote coming up, and a week ago I was ready to come up here and say that you should support Ralph.

“Today I am going to stand here and say you must vote with your conscience. I will not stand here and say you must support Ralph.”

Chronicle reporter Ryan Kiedrowski, 28, said at that point the constituency members burst into cheers and applause.

“When I take off the gloves, my gloves come off completely,” Oberg continued. “Everything is fair ball now, everything is open. It’s going to be very interesting what happens in the next while.”

Oberg warned that “if I were the premier, I wouldn’t want me sitting as a backbencher … I know where all the skeletons are.”

As well, Finance Minister Shirley McClellan was seen noticeably rushing out of her Finance Ministerial Breakfast to the emergency caucus meeting this morning after reportedly being 5 minutes late, skipping breakfast, and cutting her question and answer period short.

More soon…

What do two people who had a key hand in one of the worst, disastrous, and entertaining national election campaigns do when the dust has settled?

Start a private consulting firm: Feschuk.Reid

(Props to Public Eye Online for the linkage)

“Sort of update:” To be fair, I really did enjoy Mr. Feschuk’s blog during the election, but I think that is all I really enjoyed about that election campaign.

More of an “addition update:” …um… yeah… the always insightful Derek Raymaker has an update on the whereabouts of another survivor of the S.S. Team Martin 2006, David Herle, and his smashing debut in Toronto’s business community…

I went to Budget Day at the Alberta Legislature this afternoon. A longer recap will come soon, but some of the highlights in this compassionate budget of the people include:

-38% increase in a subsidy to Alberta’s Horse Racing Industry.

-$400 Million Corporate tax cuts to Alberta Corporations (Who are clearly hurting and in need of a tax cut with $60 barrel oil…)

As well, Finance Minister Shirley McClellan’s speeches are still as boring as dirt.

Stelmach leaves cabinet post to seek leadership

Last updated Mar 21 2006 12:44 PM MST
CBC News

Alberta’s intergovernmental affairs minister is resigning from cabinet to run for the leadership of the Tory party although Premier Ralph Klein has said he plans to stay for another two years.

Ed Stelmach says he is stepping down at this early date because of Klein’s directive that any contenders for his job should leave a cabinet posting by June 1 to prevent any conflict of interest. Stelmach isn’t saying when his own campaign will get underway, and wants to be extra careful to avoid any measure of impropriety. Read le rest ici.

I should start a prediction pool to see who’ll be next. Any takers?

After thoughts – Who do you think will replace Stelmach as Intergovernmental Affairs Minister when he resigns? My prediction is George Rogers – MLA for Leduc-Beaumont-Devon, former Mayor of Leduc, and former President of the Alberta Urban Municipalities Association. Though he has more of a municipal government background, I could see him being a good fit for this ministry.

For those of you wondering, no, I haven’t totally tuned out of the goings-on of federal Liberal leadership race – it’s just that I’m finding it quite boring at this point.

When running through a list of declared/likely/possible candidates for the coveted Stornoway parking spot, there are only a few candidates that I would feel comfortable with as leader, namely Gerard Kennedy and perhaps Michael Ignatieff.

We’ll just have to see what happens as most of the leadership candidates will most likely be in Edmonton for the Liberal Party of Canada in Alberta convention during the weekend of April 8-10. I’m probably going to be out of town for the weekend anyway, but if I get the chance, I’d like to meet up with some of the potential candidates.

Also, the “braintrust” of the federal Liberals have laid out the rules for the race – Jason has a good analysis if you’re interested – but one of the points that stuck out for me is the rush to get a new leader.

Under the rules, the membership sales cutoff is July 1st – this leaves me with two thoughts.

1. It’s damn soon and will isolate the influence of the summer BBQ circuit to people who already have memberships.

2. With the academic year ending in less than 2 months, the timeline leaves little or no time for campus clubs to organize membership and recruitment drives.

It looks to me like it was a plan written up by a group of Toronto-centric Liberals who believe that Harper will crash and burn as the Liberals return from the indiginity of opposition by next spring – something which is most likely not going to happen.

And yes, for the sake of throwing it out there, even though I didn’t vote Liberal in the last federal election, I’m probably going to renew my lapsed Liberal membership before July 1st so I can vote against Belinda Stronach and Bob Rae.

In other interesting news, I will be going to the budget announcement at the Alberta Legislature on Wednesday afternoon. Perhaps if I have time, I’ll write up a recap similar to the one I did for budget 2005. Care to place bets on how big this year’s surplus will be?

One of the biggest pet peeves I have are people who take their blogging too seriously.

It now appears that blogrolls are not imune from these symptoms.

For example, Allie’s blog was recently denied membership in the Blogging Tories by blogroll overlord Stephen Taylor because she has other political blogrolls listed on her blog, none of which she is a member.

Wow, seriously folks…

LAME.

As the title of this blog post would suggest, there is a 5-foot icicle hanging outside my bedroom window. These are times I wish I had a digital camera.

Well, for the first time in about 4 months, I shovelled the sidewalk in front of my house. I think we must have got at least a foot of snow yesterday. I really wish we would have had this much snow for Christmas, instead of in March.

After going for an Irish breakfast yesterday morning (beer included), I stopped by Second Cup at the Varscona Hotel with Sam and Chris. While ordering my coffee, I really didn’t know how to react when I saw that Second Cup had named one of their coffee flavours – I kid you not – the “Rwandan Cup of Hope” … holy smokes… talk about a heavy name for a cup of coffee… 500,000 dead… cream and sugar please… “I’ll have a large Rwandan Cup of Hope and a cranberry muffin, please…“

And on the lighter side of things… as you’ve probably noticed, I’ve been fiddling around with the blog template here at daveberta. I don’t think this will be the final version, but I’m working on it inbetween essay writing. I was getting bored with the last version, so it was time for a change.

I like suggestions as well. So, if you have any ideas for my new template, feel free to comment!

Gearing up for Premier Ralph Klein’s leadership review at PC AGM in Calgary on March 31st, there’s no shortage of rumours floating around.

Here’s a quick sample of the rumours that floated my way over the past week…

Thanks, Clay Aitken! One of the main reasons Klein announced his ultimatum to the PC leadership candidates last week was to spurn the massive “roads for votes” campaign (see here, here, here, here, here, and here) spending spree of Infrastructure and Transportation Minister and PC leadership candidate Lyle Oberg.

– The flying Dutchman flying away? PC Party Executive Director Peter Elzinga is threatening to resign (whether this threat has something to do with Elzinga’s rumoured power struggle with Klein’s Chief of Staff, Peter Kruselnicki, is unknown – but suspected).

– Klein won’t survive the leadership review. This one doesn’t really surprise me. After the shockwave of Klein’s announcement this week, many Tories I’ve spoken to were slightly jared by the tone of the announcement (18 months?).

The question is, what does a winning mandate look like for Klein? Considering he usually recieves Hussienian support levels of 97%, anything below this is bad for Klein. I would expect anything less than 80% to be a huge slap in the face to a man who has led the Alberta Progressive Conservatives to four majority governments.

– Nothing to lose. Tory backbencher, former Senator-in-waiting, and leadership candidate Ted Morton‘s organizers have been directing delegates to vote “yes” for the review.

– Everything to lose. Former Alberta Treasurer and leadership candidate Jim Dinning‘s organizers have been giving the “vote to support Klein… (wink wink, nudge nudge)…”

– Talkin’ PC. This one isn’t really a rumour, but judging from content of the latest “PC Talk” newsletter, the Tory establishment looks desperately worried about the potential outcome of the leadership review (the newsletter is filled to the brims with editorials, letters, and cleverly hidden suggestions from the party elites urging members to “VOTE NO” to the leadership review).

When a party has to drown its membership in “VOTE NO” propaganda, it should be clear that something is a foot.

And now this, from James Baxter in today’s Edmonton Journal…

“According to well-placed sources, Klein and his chief of staff, Peter Kruselnicki, planned to use undated letters of resignation as leverage against any candidate seen to be misusing his office to further his ambitions. Klein had warned Oberg, Stelmach and Hancock to be discreet and beyond reproach.”

And I fully expect things to get juicier…

SUNDAY UPDATE! And things have gotten juicier! Defeated Tory MLA and Leadership candidate Mark Norris is now a separatist…

I loved this part of the interview with the Calgary Sun‘s Licia Corbella:

“as soon as there’s a carbon tax announced or any of those things like the NEP, then you stand up on the highest mountain top and you say ‘no, we’re going to fight this and if this isn’t reversed, then we’re going to take steps to secede.'”

It was only a matter of time before one of the candidates (other than Ted Morton) dragged out the dreaded NEP! Seriously, folks, the program was cancelled over 20 years ago, we now have a Conservative government in Ottawa, and the Prime Minister is from Calgary. No one is talking about a new NEP.

I’m really not sure what Norris plans to accomplish by saying this, but then again, I really can’t understand why anyone in their right mind would want to support Norris for the Alberta PC Leadership…