– David Akin recently sat down with Liberal Senator Tommy Banks for a chat on Senate reform.
– Alberta has held Senate elections in 1989, 1998, and 2004, and is expected to hold a Senate election in the next two years to fill upcoming vacancies. Senator-in-Waiting Link Byfield has declared his intentions to seek the Wildrose Alliance nomination.
– Alberta will be getting five new federal ridings if new legislation is passed in Ottawa.
– The provincial Electoral Boundaries Commission will be starting their second round of public hearings on April 12 in Calgary.
– After originally being lukewarm to the idea of an urban riding for Grande Prairie as proposed in the Boundaries Commission’s interim report, City Councillors have decided to support the two existing ‘rurban’ ridings of Grande Prairie-Smoky and Grande Prairie-Wapiti.
– Alberta Health Services CEO Dr. Stephen Duckett was given failing grades from employees and physicians this week. Friends of Medicare executive director David Eggen told the Edmonton Journal that the survey points to the need for new leadership: “To make a fresh start, I think it’s important to make significant changes in senior leadership. This is a back-to-Australia kind of performance indicator.”
– Advanced Education Minister Doug Horner caved to the wishes of the University Administrations by allowing them to increase their base tuition rates beyond what is currently allowed under Alberta’s tuition policy for six programs. I wrote some background on the Universities quest for tuition hikes in November 2009.
– Premier Ed Stelmach will be speaking at the University of Alberta tomorrow at an event hosted by the campus Conservative club. The same club hosted an event with Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle Smith last month.
– From Capital Notebook, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development paid $33,963 to a company called Borat High Five Consulting Ltd. between April 2008 and October 2009. This gives me a good excuse to post my favourite Borat clip…
Category: Doug Horner
With a cabinet shuffled expected in the near future (possibly as early as tomorrow), there is no shortage of speculation about who will be shuffled in, out, and around. A cabinet shuffle will put a new face on the tiring PC cabinet that has weathered a brutal public beating on issues ranging from unpopular health care restructuring, Bill 44, resource royalty tinkering, international attention on the oilsands, a by-election defeat, a seismic drop in the polls, and MLA defections.
As I wrote in December 2009, It is going to take something much more meaningful than a cabinet shuffle to change PC Party fortunes. One of Premier Ed Stelmach‘s greatest challenges is that his government doesn’t have a defining purpose beyond governing for governing sake, and it shows.
Finance Minister Iris Evans may keep her job, but there are strong rumors about a comfy patronage appointment as Alberta’s Representative in London, UK. With a strong political pedigree, Doug Horner is a key candidate for promotion – to Finance, or more likely, Health & Wellness. His father, Hugh Horner, served as an MP, MLA, and cabinet minister between 1958 and 1979, including as Deputy Premier and Minister of Agriculture of Alberta.
The rumor mill appears to have come to an unlikely consensus that Minister Ron Liepert will relieve Minister Mel Knight of his position in Energy. Delicate as a wrecking ball, Minister Liepert oversaw the haphazard dissolution of Alberta’s regional health authorities and centralization under the Alberta Health Services ‘Superboard.’ I am sure that the energy sector will love him.
As the Godfather of Edmonton PC MLAs, Dave Hancock is expected to remain Education Minister, not interrupting the ongoing School Act review. Also expected to remain in their job is Environment Minister Rob Renner, who has proved his ability to deliver a respectful media performance on dirty files like climate change and the oilsands.
First-term MLA Diana McQueen wooed PC delegates in her introduction of Premier Stelmach at their 2009 leadership review convention. McQueen could be a strong addition to a weak cabinet. After playing interference for Premier Stelmach on the Alberta Hospital Edmonton bed closures, another rookie MLA, Fred Horne, has been rumored to be a candidate for Minister of Health, but more recently has been rumoured to replace Minister Horner in Advanced Education. Horne served as Executive Assistant to Minister Hancock, who also he served in the portfolio.
Long-time Stelmach confidants Jack Hayden, Ray Danyluk, and Lloyd Snelgrove will likely stay rewarded for their loyalty, but may be shuffled. Ted Morton is clearly enjoying his current role as Sustainable Resource Development Minister, but columnist Don Braid has suggested that he may be moved to the Treasury Board position. Weak Ministerial performers Lindsay Blackett, Janis Tarchuk, Heather Klimchuk, and George Groenveld are also prime targets for being shuffled.
After taking another look at the rumoured shuffle, it does not appear to be much of a change after all. We shall wait and see.
New LG?: On January 20, the traditional 5-year term of Lieutenant Governor Norman Kwong will come to an end. With a lower profile than his predecessor, Lois Hole, Kwong brought a different personality to the office of Alberta’s viceroy. All of Alberta’s LGs appointed since Queen Elizabeth II ascended to the throne have been former attempted or elected politicians (including Helen Huntley, Gordon Towers, and Bud Olsen). If Kwong does not continue in the office I am at a loss to name who the next LG might be, but I can think of someone who might be an interesting pick.
Cabinet shuffle: Premier Ed Stelmach is expected to shuffle the provincial cabinet early in the new year. I have laid out my thoughts here
Manning Centre: The conservative politics institute formed by former Reform Party leader Preston Manning has taken an interest in provincial politics and will be holding a ‘Conference on Alberta’s Future‘ on February 5 in Edmonton.
Speech from the Throne: This year’s Sessional Calendar has not yet been posted on the Legislative Assembly website, but all indications point to a Speech from the Throne on the week of February 8. If a new LG is appointed in January, this will be their first high profile event.
Provincial Budget: Another tough economic times budget is expected to be tabled during the week of February 15. The Finance Minister at the time will wear this budget, whether it be Minister Iris Evans or a successor (odds are on Minister Doug Horner). Potential deep cuts to pubic health care have led some longtime PC supporters to question the longtime governing party.
Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission: The deadline for release of the interim report (including interim riding maps for the next election) is February 26 and the second round of public hearings are set to begin in April 2010. A final report will be released by July 2010.
Reboot Alberta 2.0: Following a highly successful first meeting in Red Deer in November 2009, a larger gathering of progressive Albertans is being planned for February 26 to 28 in Kananaskis. I reflected on the first Reboot Alberta meeting in early December 2009.
Alberta Liberal convention: Alberta’s Official Opposition Party will be holding their annual policy convention in Edmonton. There is not any information on their website, but I believe that it will be held in March 2010. Expect to hear more from the Liberals in the new year following David Swann‘s recent State of the Party Address.
Alberta Progressive Conservative convention: On April 30 and June 1, members of Alberta’s near 40-year governing party will gather in Edmonton. With low approval ratings and dropping party support in recent polls, expect Premier Stelmach to use the first four months of 2010 in an attempt to boost his political fortunes.
Wildrose Alliance convention: Since selecting Danielle Smith as their leader, the Wildrose Alliance has conveniently been able to avoid answering questions about social issues under the guise of self-described libertarianism. One of Smith’s largest challenges at their 2010 policy convention will be to moderate some of the more destructive social conservative elements within her party’s membership.
Municipal Elections: Monday October 18. More to come…
There has been a lot of chatter about what Premier Ed Stelmach can do to reverse the Progressive Conservatives downward spiral in recent polls. According to these recent polls, the PCs now sit at 25% province-wide and in third place behind Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Alliance and David Swann‘s Liberals in Edmonton and Calgary. Another recent poll framed Premier Stelmach as the least popular Premier in Canada with a 14% approval rating.
Sheila Pratt has written an interesting article in today’s Edmonton Journal about the PCs current misfortune and the new groups of Albertans like Reboot Alberta and Renew Alberta that have emerged. Even Preston Manning is interested in starting something new. Luckily for Premier Stelmach, he still has two years before he has to face the electorate for a second time, but what does the Premier need to do to turn his fortunes around?
Will finally ending the disastrous reigns of Children & Youth Services Minister Janis Tarchuk and Health & Wellness Minister Ron Liepert change Premier Stelmach’s position in the polls? Will moving Education Minister Dave Hancock in the midst of the School Act Review boost their numbers? Will moving Energy Minister Mel Knight to another portfolio halt the Calgary energy sector support that is flowing towards the Wildrose Alliance? Will promoting Advanced Education Minister Doug Horner to Finance Minister improve their image? Will relocating Culture & Community Spirit Minister Lindsay Blackett bring back the PC supporters who were offended over the embarrassment of Bill 44?
Will rearranging the deck chairs change the course of the ship? It is going to take something much more meaningful than a cabinet shuffle to change PC Party fortunes. As I said during an interview with Calgary Today’s Mike Blanchard this week, one of Premier Stelmach’s greatest challenges is that his government doesn’t have a defining purpose beyond governing for governing sake, and it shows.
In his recent book, Rich Vivone accurately pointed out that when Premier Ralph Klein declared Alberta to be debt free in 2004, the PCs began to drift. Aiming to defeat the deficit and debt saved the PCs from being unseated by Laurence Decore‘s Liberals in the 1993 election and it was the defining theme in Alberta politics in the 1990s and early 2000s. In many ways, Premier Klein’s 55.4% approval in 2006 reflected the drift.
Premier Stelmach is far from an amazing orator or political strategist, but one of his greatest strengths is that he is constantly underestimated by his opponents and the media. No one expected him to defeat Jim Dinning and Ted Morton in the PC leadership race or lead his party to win a 72-seat majority in the March 2008 election. The recent polls may spell demise for the near 40-year governing PCs, but with at least another two years to create a defining purpose for governing, their political and electoral opponents would be foolish to write them off just yet.
Advanced Education Minister Doug Horner has said that he will accept and review requests from Alberta’s Post-Secondary Institutions to increase their base tuition rates beyond what is currently allowed under Alberta’s tuition policy. Whatever your thoughts on the cost of tuition – whether you believe in the strength of communities or individual investment (or a mixture of the two) – it is important to understand some of the context in which this posturing is occurring. This is not simply a result of tough economic times, the Government and Institutions have both attempted to and successfully tinkered with the tuition policy a number of times in recent years.
During very prosperous economic times in March 2006, the Presidents of the University of Alberta, Calgary, Lethbridge, and Athabasca sent a letter to Minister Dave Hancock proposing that tuition increases be based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation plus 3.5 per cent.
In the letter, the presidents warn Alberta is falling behind. “Alberta lags behind the national average in post-secondary spaces, a serious problem as we seek to provide the workforce needed for an expanding economy.”
Students are also frustrated the presidents drafted a proposal without consulting them, saying they were under the impression a joint bid would be submitted to Hancock.
[University of Calgary Students’ Union President Bryan] West called the proposal a “backroom deal.”
“We were all going to put forward one letter, with one profound and powerful voice,” said West who sits on the steering committee with the presidents and other stakeholders. “We feel really hurt by this and wonder if they were playing us all along.”
The day following my election as Chair of the Council of Alberta University Students in May 2006, I sat in front of the cameras with Liberal MLA Dave Taylor, NDP MLA Raj Pannu, Bill Moore-Kilgannon from Public Interest Alberta, and Jon Hoffman from ACTISEC to oppose the passage of Bill 40: Post-Secondary Learning Amendment Act.
Introduced during the (thankfully) short-lived tenure of Minister Denis Herard, Bill 40 removed Alberta’s tuition policy from the Post-Secondary Learning Act, thus removing the insurance that Albertans had that any changes to the policy governing the cost of post-secondary education would need to be debated in a public forum.
“We’re prepared to wait until the next time the legislature meets to have a new policy implemented, so that the policy is embedded in an act of the legislature,” said David Cournoyer, chair of the Council of Alberta University Students (CAUS) and University of Alberta Students’ Union Vice President External. “If the tuition policy is not in legislation, it is no good to us.”
Universities and colleges in Alberta are currently limited to increasing tuition by CPI inflation (at a maximum), but because the tuition policy is now under regulation it can be changed in the privacy of a closed door Cabinet meeting. No public debate required.
Barring a stealth insurgency campaign, I anticipate that around 85% of Progressive Conservative convention delegates will support Premier Ed Stelmach in the leadership review vote this weekend. Why so high, you ask? Because this is a vote by dedicated partisans from Alberta’s PC Party. Premier Stelmach has his detractors, but I expect that the kind of party members who would pay hundreds of dollars to spend two days in Red Deer will predictably rally around the PC Party brand.
Seeking to revive fond memories a past era, the slogan chosen for this convention was also the PCs 1979 election slogan. Now… more than ever, which was chosen thirty years ago over the wrath tempting 79 in ’79, is meant to remind party faithful of the glory days and to put aside their feelings about more recent political baggage.
With at least two or three years until the next election, Premier Stelmach has at least twelve months to pull his party’s support up again before he faces the kind of internal opposition that forced Don Getty into retirement. Similar to Getty’s time in office, Premier Stelmach is governing during an economic slowdown under the shadow of a popular predecessor. Getty’s administration was marred with scandals and internal dissent and so far, Premier Stelmach has demonstrated an ability to avoid taking personal responsibility for his government’s missteps. Getty retired in 1992 as Laurence Decore‘s Liberals were riding a wave of discontent that mirrored the rise of the Reform Party on the federal stage. While they are currently rising in recent polls, it remains to be seen whether Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Alliance can sustain their support until the next election. It also remains to be seen whether David Swann can re-energize the Liberals to take advantage of a potential split on the political right.
Also uncertain is who would contest a 2010 leadership race if PC delegates voted to sack the Premier. Ted Morton, Brett Wilson, Jim Prentice, Dave Hancock, Jonathan Denis, Ray Danyluk, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner are names that I have heard bandied around, but it is too soon to tell who is actually prepared to step up to the plate.
Billed as a policy convention, a quick look at the policy booklet reveals a fairly dry agenda for debate. It is likely that the liveliest excitement of the weekend may come from outside the convention where the AUPE, the Friends of Medicare, and other public sector groups are busing hundreds of supporters from around the province to a huge Stop the Cuts rally only blocks away from the convention.
On Saturday night, PC archetypes will herald the convention as a success of the grassroots, but I expect that little will change after the convention concludes. Regardless of potential icebergs on the political horizon, a strong showing of support in the leadership review will certainly solidify the resolve of Premier Stelmach and his supporters that they are steering their party, and the Government of Albertans, in the right direction. “Rearrange the deck chairs…“
Recommended Reading:
Alex Abboud: State of Alberta: At a Crossroads
Calgary Grit: This week in Alberta – All good things…
Ken Chapman: Is Alberta about to enter an empire illusion stage politically?
Chris Labossiere: Run up the middle… to right of centre
Duncan Wojtaszek: Red Deer
Live Gov: PC AGM
I briefly touched on this point in my previous post, but the potential for a cabinet shuffle before the fall session of the Legislative Assembly begins in October seems imminent after yesterday’s results in the Calgary-Glenmore by-election. I started hearing serious rumours of a cabinet shuffle during the spring session of the Assembly. They mostly began following the announcement of the deficit in the 2009 provincial budget and intensified following the controversy over Bill 44.
A shuffle within Finance & Enterprise is the rumour I’ve heard most frequently. With Minister Iris Evans being in the most unfortunate position to have tabled Alberta’s first deficit budget in 15 years, it wouldn’t be completely shocking if Premier Ed Stelmach wanted this position shuffled. Sources close to a PC cabinet minister have told me that Advanced Education & Technology Minister Doug Horner is seen as the natural fit for this position. Horner is well-respected and has been a competent Minister in his current portfolio.
The resignation of Deputy Premier Ron Stevens left Stelmach without a recognized Calgary Lieutenant in his cabinet. Although she doesn’t have the type of corporate Calgary credentials as Stevens, I could see the Deputy Premier role being filled by Justice Minister Alison Redford.
With Children’s Services Minister Janis Tarchuk reaching the end of her political rope, Evans could easily be shuffled back into the Children’s Services portfolio, an position that she passionately filled from 1999 to 2004.
For Advanced Education & Technology, I have heard a number of names floated including PC backbenchers Len Webber, Janice Sarich, Doug Griffiths, Jonathan Denis, Dave Rodney, and cabinet ministers Heather Klimchuk and Ted Morton. I have a difficult time believing that Morton would be moved from Sustainable Resource Development (a ministry where he is recognized as being competent), the results of the Calgary-Glenmore by-election make it likely that a Calgary MLA will be picked.
I’m told that many inside Stelmach’s inner circle take great joy in comparing themselves to the government of Peter Lougheed. If this is a motivator, I could easily see both Horner and Webber, two second generation PC MLAs whose father’s served in Lougheed’s government, be appointed to elevated positions around the cabinet table.
UPDATE: Len Webber has been appointed Minister of Intergovernmental and International Affairs. This appears to be Premier Stelmach’s only new appointment to the Cabinet.
Further UPDATE: From the GOA:
Premier Stelmach also named Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis as the new Parliamentary Assistant for Energy. Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Broyce Jacobs becomes the Parliamentary Assistant for Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD). And Battle River-Wainwright MLA Doug Griffiths moves from his role as the Parliamentary Assistant in ARD to become the Parliamentary Assistant for the Department of Solicitor General and Public Security.
From the world of post-secondary education!
The Council of Alberta University Students have released their submission for Alberta’s 2010 budget consultation process. While not the boldest recommendations that have ever come from CAUS (speaking as one of its former Chairpersons), it appears that the new reality for post-secondary education is to avoid becoming the target of massive budget cuts rather than advocating for bold increases (which is more or less a pretty savvy maneuver in a province that is running a record $6.9 billion deficit)
On Thursday, it is expected to be announced that after a long process, Mount Royal College will become a University. “MRU” will be Alberta’s fifth University and the first established since Athabasca University was created in 1970. Alberta’s other universites include the University of Alberta (est. 1908), University of Calgary (est. 1966), and University of Lethbridge (est. 1967). There have been some exciting changes happening within Alberta’s post-secondary education system since Doug Horner became Minister of Advanced Education & Technology in 2007, but I am still unconvinced whether Alberta needs a fifth University-level institution.
On a final post-secondary education note, I’m glad that I am not the only person to point out how ridiculous it is to suggest that Mount Royal’s transition to a University is a conspiracy to influence the September 14 by-election in Calgary-Glenmore, as Calgary-Varsity Liberal MLA Harry Chase suggested this morning. Please keep the coffee room conspiracy theories away from the media releases.
They stood up to vote against it, but no PC MLA spoke up to explain why they opposed Lethbridge-East MLA Bridget Pastoor‘s March 18 amendment to remove Section 5 of Bill 18: Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement Implementation Statutes Amendment Act, 2009. In its current form, Section 5 will allow Cabinet Ministers to suspend or modify sections of the TILMA Act without seeking the approval of or having to deal with public debate in the elected Legislature.
Six opposition MLAs rose to speak in support of the amendment, while thirty-one PC MLAs, including Cabinet Ministers Iris Evans, Dave Hancock, Jack Hayden, Doug Horner, Heather Klimchuk, Fred Lindsay, Luke Ouellette, Alison Redford, Rob Renner, Lloyd Snelgrove, Ron Stevens, and Gene Zwozdesky didn’t make a peep before defeating the amendment 31 to 6.
UPDATE: MLA Laurie Blakeman raised concerns about this section of Bill 18 earlier in the week:
With the Second Session of the 27th Alberta Legislature set to begin next week, here are a couple things that will be on my radar:
Throne Speech: Having attended five out of the past six Speeches from the Throne, I’m having a difficult time raising my expectations this year. No matter what is read, PC MLAs will roar, Opposition Liberals and NDP will oppose, but in the end, everyone will still love Norman Kwong.
Provincial Budget: Expected in March/April, this will be the first provincial deficit budget that Alberta has seen in over a decade. After sending out mixed signals, it looks like dipping into the Sustainability Fund will provide short-term protection to Premier Ed Stelmach and Finance Minister Iris Evans from being lynched by the rabid fiscal conservatives in the PC caucus. Are the days of the Deep Six long gone?
Health Care: Health Minister Ron Liepert will be in the spotlight over restructuring, layoffs, and the daily delisting and (un)delisting of services. Focus will be on Liepert, but I will be keeping an eye on his Parliamentary Deputy, Edmonton-Meadowlark MLA Raj Sherman, says or doesn’t say on the issue of privatization during this session.
New Official Opposition Leader: Calgary-Mountain View MLA David Swann will lead the Official Opposition into his first Legislative Session as leader. Can he lead the rag-tag Liberal Caucus as a cohesive unit? Pay attention to what Calgary-Currie MLA Dave Taylor does in this session.
Oil-bama: Stelmach has invited President Barack Obama to visit Alberta’s Oil Sands, but this isn’t about oil, this is all about Climate Change. The PCs are clearly concerned that Obama’s Climate Change agenda could force the traditional oil industry to clean up its act. It’s a market, and if the consumers (the United States) change their standards, it’s up to the producer (the oil companies) to either adapt or perish. It’s not hard to see what direction the energy market is moving towards when large energy companies, such as BP, continue to move resources into renewable energy projects in the United States. Albertans have a unique opportunity to become leaders in innovation in new cleaner energy markets, but as long as our leaders continue to focus on the old economy, we risk being left behind.
Land-Use Framework: Sustainable Resource Development Minister Ted Morton has the job of navigating his proposed land-use framework through the minefield that is the Alberta Legislature, and more specifically, the PC caucus. This is a very important step for Alberta, so critical debate and public attention towards this issue will be important.
Respect: Swann wants to tone down the rhetoric and dramatics in the Legislative Assembly, but it will take more than nice wishes to change an entrenched political culture. Without a joint statement between Swann and Stelmach, it is likely that it won’t become anything more than a nice idea. Bets on how long it take for Stelmach to accuse Swann of being a communist?
Post-Secondary Learning Amendment Act: Advanced Ed & Tech Minister Doug Horner will introduce amendments to the PSL Act that will pave the way for Mount Royal College and Grant MacEwan College to become Mount Royal University and Grant MacEwan University. Last week, representatives from the AUCC were spotted at Mount Royal assessing the transition.
Bill 201. Calgary-Buffalo MLA Kent Hehr will be introducing Bill 201: Traffic Safety (Seizure of Vehicles Containing Illegally Held Firearms) Act.
Lobbyist Registry. After years of promising to create a Provincial Lobbyist Registry, is there a chance that we might actually see some concrete movement this spring? (fingers crossed…)
Completely under the radar, Alberta’s Department of Advanced Education and Technology released its Roles and Mandates framework document yesterday.
In the early months of 2007, in my role as Chair of the Council of Alberta University Students, I was part of the original consultations for this framework. Though I’m not that they were really ‘consultations,’ as no one seemed very clear as to what ‘Roles and Responsibilities‘ (as it was then known) was supposed to accomplish, only that the Minister wanted to define them.
At the time, the new framework looked suspiciously like a makework/legacy building framework project from new-Minister Doug Horner (Roles and Mandates followed a string of Advanced Education frameworks, including from Dave Hancock’s A Learning Alberta and short-term-disaster of a Minster Denis Herard’s *weak* Affordability Framework).
As unsexy as ‘Roles and Mandates‘ sounds (and probably is), I’ve been a little disappointed at how low under the radar the entire process has flown. If the framework is as important as CAUS’ latest media release gushes, it’s too bad that groups like CAUS and Public Interest Alberta’s PSE Taskforce weren’t more aggressive in bringing this to the media and Albertans attention (especially with a provincial election around the corner).