Alberta is a pretty boring place to spend a federal election. Even as the polls shift nationally, there is a good chance the seat total could be the same as the 2019 election: 33 Conservative and one NDP.
It’s a quiet campaign.
Unlike the 2019 election, when Albertans were still riled up from that year’s April provincial election and federal campaign issues like pipelines and the carbon tax, this year feels sleepy. The majority of Albertans will surely cast their ballots again on September for the Conservative Party, but it might not be with the same level of enthusiasm and gusto as the last election.
But, if there is a chance that any seats could switch parties, here are a few of the ridings where it might happen:
Edmonton-Griesbach
Probably one of the only centres of electoral excitement in Alberta is where Conservative candidate Kerry Diotte is seeking re-election for his third-term against New Democrat Blake Desjarlais.
The NDP are hoping they can elect a second MP from Alberta and are putting that hope into Desjarlais’ campaign. Party leader Jagmeet Singh has visited the riding twice in the past month, spending an entire day campaigning in the district during the first week of the election, and pouring volunteer, financial and online advertising resources into the local campaign.
If the NDP are going to pick up a second seat in Alberta in this election, this is it.
Even NDP MLAs, who shunned the federal party in 2019, have been campaigning with Desjarlais in his bid to unseat Diotte. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood MLA Janis Irwin, Edmonton-Glenora MLA Sarah Hoffman, Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Richard Feehan, Edmonton-South MLA Thomas Dang, Edmonton-North West MLA David Eggen, and Edmonton-West Henday MLA Jon Carson have been spotted on the campaign trail in Edmonton-Griesbach.
Full list of candidates in Edmonton-Griesbach:
- Communist: Alex Boykowich
- Conservative: Kerry Diotte
- Green: Heather Lau
- Liberal: Habiba Mohamud
- Libertarian: Morgan Watson
- Marxist-Leninist: Mary Joyce
- NDP: Blake Desjarlais
- People’s Party: Thomas Matty
Edmonton-Centre
Conservative James Cumming and Liberal Randy Boissonnault are facing each other for the third time since 2015. Boissonnault won the first time they face each other in 2015 and Cumming unseated him in 2019.
NDP candidate Heather MacKenzie, a former public school board trustee and past municipal candidate, is hoping to dislodge the Liberals as the main alternative to the Conservatives.
NDP vote has held firm over the past three elections, suggesting that Boissonnault’s win in 2015 and defeat in 2019 was more about voters switching between the Conservatives and Liberals than a split between the Liberals and NDP.
Toronto Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland stopped in the district at the beginning of the campaign to support Boissonnault’s bid for re-election.
Full list of candidates in Edmonton-Centre:
- Conservative: James Cumming
- Liberal: Randy Boissonnault
- Libertarian: Valerie Keefe
- Marxist-Leninist: Merryn Edwards
- NDP: Heather Mackenzie
- People’s Party: Brock Crocker
Edmonton-Mill Woods
Conservative Tim Uppal’s main challenger is city councillor Ben Henderson, who hopped south from his long-held municipal ward to run in his federal district.
While Uppal served as an MP for many terms, this is his first time running for re-election in Edmonton-Mill Woods. He was the MP for Edmonton-Sherwood Park from 2008 to 2015.
The district was represented by Liberal MP Amarjeet Sohi from 2015 to 2019. Sohi is running for Mayor of Edmonton.
Full list of candidates in Edmonton-Mill Woods:
- Communist: Naomi Rankin
- Conservative: Tim Uppal
- Liberal: Ben Henderson
- NDP: Nigel Logan
- People’s Party: Paul McCormack
Calgary-Centre
It’s a long-shot but if the Liberals are able to salvage their national campaign in the next two weeks they could be in a position to pick up this district that Liberal Kent Hehr won in 2015. In this election Liberal Sabrina Grover is challenging first-term Conservative Greg McLean.
Full list of candidates in Calgary-Centre:
- Christian Heritage Party: David Pawlowski
- Conservative: Greg McLean
- Green: Austin Mullins
- Liberal: Sabrina Grover
- NDP: Juan Estevez Moreno
Calgary-Skyview
Conservative Jag Sahota is facing a challenge from city councillor George Chahal who is running for the Liberals in this northeast Calgary district. Chahal has been endorsed by Mayor Naheed Nenshi, and a handful of city councillors including mayoral election hopefuls Jyoti Gondek and Jeff Davison.
Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau’s plane touched down just long enough for him to appear at a rally in support of Chahal during the first week of the election.
Former MLA Darshan Kang was elected as the Liberal MP in 2015 but left the Liberal caucus after allegations of sexual harassment.
Full list of candidates in Calgary-Skyview:
- Centrist Party: Nadeem Rana
- Conservative: Jag Sahota
- Green: Janna So
- Independent: Lee Aquart
- Liberal: George Chahal
- Marxist-Leninist: Daniel Blanchard
- NDP: Gurinder Singh Gill
- People’s Party: Harry Dhillon
Banff-Airdire
Conservative candidate Blake Richards will probably safely coast to re-election on September 20, but the cast of conservative characters in this district make it interesting. Richards faces former Ontario Conseravtive MP Derek Sloan, who has relocated to Alberta in order to hold rallies for anti-mask and COVID conspiracy theorists, Maverick Party candidate and rodeo competitor Tariq Elnaga, People’s Party candidate Nadine Wellwood, and Independent separatist candidate Ron Voss.
Full list of candidates in Banff-Airdire:
- Conservative: Blake Richards
- Green: Aidan Blum
- Independent: Caroline O’Driscoll
- Independent: Derek Sloan
- Independent: Ron Voss
- Liberal: David Gamble
- Maverick: Tariq Elnaga
- NDP: Sarah Zagoda
- People’s Party: Nadine Wellwood
The smaller right-wing parties
It has yet to be seen what kind of impact two smaller right-wing parties will have in Alberta in this election.
People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier is in Alberta this week holding a series of rallies and it seems like the right-wing populist party is gaining support among disenchanted conservatives and anti-vaxxer crowds.
Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman has been spotted at People’s Party events and Bernier also met with Cypress-Medicine Hat Drew Barnes, who currently sits as an Independent MLA after being ejected from the United Conservative Party caucus earlier in the summer. It also appears as though outgoing Fort McMurray-Cold Lake Conservative MP David Yurdiga endorsed the local People’s Party candidate in a post on his personal Facebook account.
The separatist Maverick Party is only running candidates in districts they have determined are not likely to elect a Liberal or NDP MP, which is most of Alberta, but limiting themselves to running in Conservative strongholds has probably eliminated their chances of being relevant in this election.
Former talk radio host Dave Rutherford has been joining Maverick Party interim leader Jay Hill at candidate events across the province.
5 replies on “Alberta is a pretty boring place to spend a federal election”
Up here in Grande Prairie-Mackenzie, I haven’t yet seen any PPC signs, but lots for the Maverick candidate, Ambrose Ralph — who is also running radio ads on at least three local stations. He must be well-financed.
It’d be funny if he pulled enough votes from Chris Warkentin to make it interesting.
I only hope that Warkentin is OPPOSED in great numbers—he has became so complacent…..acts like he is entitled to rule forever. He will get re-elected, no doubt about it, as family and connections rule the area, but he needs to know that there are great numbers who don’t think he is doing a good job.
Update: the PPC signs have appeared. Still none for NDP or Liberals … nor any for the Rhino Party.
Mainstreet’s latest riding poll for Edmonton-Centre has it as, surprisingly, a neck-and-neck two way race between the NDP’s Heather MacKenzie and the Liberal, both at 34%, with the incumbent Conservative well back at 26%.
Perhaps the strength of Rachel Notley’s brand, dislike of Trudeau, and hatred of Jason Kenney’s style of Conservative, is coalescing to produce some unusual results on election night, at least in Edmonton?
With other pollsters showing the NDP at 20 across Alberta as a whole, and the Liberals at 15 and falling, it seems the best bet to defeat Conservatives in almost any Alberta riding is to vote NDP orange
Yes, barring a Conservative catastrophe in the next week or so, it is again probably a forgone conclusion how most Alberta ridings will vote.
I suppose, as indicated, there is half a dozen or so ridings that will be interesting or close. The Liberal have one former MP running again and two Councillors in competitive ridings in Edmonton and Calgary and perhaps a good chance in one or two others. The NDP likely has Edmonton Strathcona and possibly a good chance in Edmonton Griesbach.
However, I do sense that Conservative support is not as strong as last time, while the Liberal and NDP have gained some, so I think it will at least be a bit more competitive than the last election, at least in some ridings. Also, in a close Federal race, a few seats in Alberta could actually make a difference.