The results of the by-election, as of 10:20 p.m. on October 24, 2016.

Is the Sky Blue? Conservatives crush in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner by-election

Glen Motz

Glen Motz

It is 10:20 p.m. and Conservative Party candidate Glen Motz has cruised to a crushing victory in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner federal by-election. With 190 of 223 polls reporting, Mr. Motz had earned 69.3 percent of the vote, which is slightly higher to what the Conservative candidate earned in the October 2015 federal election. This is not unexpected, as voters in this sprawling southeast rural Alberta riding have a long history of supporting conservative candidates.

Though in a distant second place, Liberal candidate Stan Sakamoto is set to have achieved a high-water mark for the Liberals in this riding by earning the highest share of the vote for the Liberals since since 1974. An impressive mid-campaign splash by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a first by a sitting prime minister since 1993, also prompted a visit by Conservative leader Rona Ambrose, a first by a Conservative Party leader since before 2006.

Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party candidate, Bev Waege, is sitting at an embarrassingly low 1 percent of the vote, down from the 2015 candidate’s 9 percent. Neither the federal nor provincial parties appear to have put much, if any, effort into this by-election campaign. The lack of an NDP candidate until midway through the campaign also likely pushed NDP supporters towards Mr. Sakamoto’s campaign.

The results are undoubtably a reflection of how voters in this deep southern rural Alberta riding (the heart of Wildrose Party territory) feel about the federal NDP opposition in Ottawa and the provincial NDP government in Edmonton (which is not encouraging news for Medicine Hat NDP MLA Bob Wanner).

I expect Wildrose MLAs will try to blame Premier Rachel Notley for this poor showing, but anyone who has been paying attention to rural politics in this province over the past 17 months will not be completely shocked by this result.

Shorter version: Not much has really changed. Carry on with politics as usual.

The final results of the by-election can be found on the Elections Canada website.

11 thoughts on “Is the Sky Blue? Conservatives crush in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner by-election

  1. Andrew Birkby

    Hahaha – sometimes no matter how much you try to spin it, it’s unsalvageable. Here’s the real story: Medicine Hat, who typically gives 10% of their federal vote to the NDP, and who elected an NDP MLA in the last election has reduced its NDP support to FRINGE PARTY LEVELS. That’s right, they just got doubled by The Christian Heritage Party. But don’t worry – they beat the Rhinos! This is a collapse of epic proportion. Notley and her shills can muster only one response to this carnage: “Turn away! Business as usual! The sky is blue! Nothing to see here!” Hilarious and awesome.

    Reply
    1. Anonymous

      Andrew Birkby: It is quite an interesting result in this by-election. The CPC didn’t help these constituents, by doing very bad scandals, such as the $35 billion income trust scandal, which obliterated many people’s life savings, didn’t properly deal with Senate scandals, sold the Canadian Wheat Board to the Saudi Arabia, etc. Stephen Harper and the CPC also exponentially increased Canada’s debt load, all by themselves. Why did these people vote for the CPC candidate, given all these major missteps?

      Reply
  2. George Clark

    Nice deflections but wouldn’t your followers be better served by a healthy dose of the truth? The provincial and federal NDP party colluded with the Liberals in running an ineffective candidate. They sent their team to support the Liberal Stan Sakamoto in the hopes of winning a seat from the Conservatives. The combined appetite for socialism or disguised progressivism has dropped to under 25% within Alberta. Because most Albertans are quite capable of recognizing that both the provincial NDP and the federal Liberals have no desire to defend or support everything that has made Alberta the envy of the free world. Entrepreneurship, Oil, Gas, Coal, Forestry and Agriculture. Not the highest minimum wage nor the highest carbon tax nor even the highest paid public sector. The greatness of Alberta comes from the very hard work and skills of the people who have developed our resources into the cleanest most productive in the world. Everything else depends upon that for any measure of success. 70% of Albertans in Medicine Hat- Cardston – Warner reaffirmed that yesterday.

    Reply
    1. Dave Cournoyer Post author

      > “The provincial and federal NDP party colluded with the Liberals in running an ineffective candidate.” < Thanks for the comment, George. Do you actually have any evidence to support this? I doubt it is true.

      Reply
    2. Aaron

      How’s that Kudatah going for you, George Clark? Still have a secret petition to overthrow the government? Is your 15 minutes of internet fame over yet?
      Cookoo.. cookoo… cookoo…

      Reply
  3. Lorna

    Congratulations on your win Glen! You will be an outstanding MP in Ottawa. And Stan — thank you for running. You will continue to be an respected voice and strong member of our community here in Medicine Hat!

    Reply
  4. Scott

    You failed to mention that Bev Waege was the provincial NDP candidate in Cypress – Med Hat and the urban portion of the federal riding is held by the NDP. Pretty sad spinning Dave. You could do better.

    Reply
  5. Bob Raynard

    This was definitely a case of it was a Conservative by-election to lose. Despite Mr. Clark’s post, the election results aren’t surprising nor, since the results are pretty much the same as the federal general election, an indicator of some massive province-wide anti-NDP backlash.

    That said, MLA Bob Wanner might not want to have too many business cards printed. One has to wonder, though, how an NPD candidate managed to win a seat in the heart of Wildrose country in the first place. The short answer is anti-Conservative backlash, but the more interesting question is why the Wildrose couldn’t collect enough of that backlash to win the seat.

    Reply
    1. Andrew

      The answer Bob is that there was a brief window where voter frustration and vote splitting allowed for the terrible terrible result of electing an NDP government. The window has *thankfully* now closed as is evidenced by many polls and byelections since. Sadly, we still have over two years of waste, mismanagement and bewildering failure to endure. This period will hugely diminish our finances, our industries and our international reputation. But we must keep an eye on the future. The Conservatives left Alberta in the strongest fiscal position of any province in Canada. It is the strength we had entering this period of failure that will allow us to endure. The pain we suffer to right the ship after the NDP is chased from office will be immense, and sadly it will be borne by many of the people that the NDP claims to support. But that’s the price we pay for the terrible mistake we’ve made.

      Reply
  6. Jamie

    The fact that the NDP is down below the Christian Heritage Party and near the !! Rhinoceros party is the final death knell for socialism in Alberta. Freedom. Capitalism. And market fundamentalism follow.

    Alleluia!

    Reply
    1. Anonymous

      Jamie: The NDP weren’t responsible for causing Alberta’s economic woes. The Alberta PCs, started that job around 30 years ago, with a plethora of very costly scandals and negligent ways. There is nothing good about the major damage they did to this province. Market fundamentalism hasn’t benefited ordinary Albertans one iota. It only benifitted the Alberta PCs and their corporate pals.

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *