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Alberta Politics Canadian Politics

Underdog Liberal has a shot in Fort McMurray-Athabasca by-election

Kyle Harrietha Fort McMurray Athabasca By Election Liberal
Liberal candidate Kyle Harrietha stands with his first sign of the Vote Harrietha campaign in Fort McMurray-Athabasca. (Photo from Kyle Harrietha’s Facebook Page)

Four federal by-elections will be held across Canada on June 30, 2014, including in Alberta’s Macleod and Fort McMurray-Athabasca ridings made vacant by the retirements of Conservative Members of Parliament Ted Menzies and Brian Jean months ago.

While most general elections in Alberta can be counted on to result in broad Conservative sweeps, Albertans have shown themselves to be a more unpredictable when an uncommon by-election is held.

Last year’s by-election in Calgary-Centre, a riding represented by Conservatives for nearly fifty years came within a sliver of being won by Liberal Harvey Locke. And in 1989, the spark that led to a Reform Party sweep of the West four years later was lit when Deborah Grey won a by-election in Beaver River.

This year’s by-election in Fort McMurray-Athabasca is expected to be particularly interesting. Home of Canada’s Oil Sands, this riding is Ground Zero for the international debate about climate change, pipelines and the future of the energy industry. This riding is also demographically different than southern Alberta’s Macleod or most other rural Alberta ridings.

Fort McMurray-Athabasca Federal Election Results 2006 2008 2011 by-election 2014

Home to a young and transient population that includes Aboriginals, New Canadians and Canadians from across the country (and many temporary foreign workers), the industrial nature of employment in the riding means it also has a higher percentage of labour union membership than most rural Alberta ridings. Low levels of voter turnout in recent general elections (40% turnout in 2011) could contribute to an unpredictable by-election result.

While much of the northern half of the riding benefits from an industrial boom, the Municipality of Wood Buffalo faces the incredible challenge of keeping up with the pressures that accompany this type of fast growth – transportation infrastructure (and Highway 63), housing, public services, etc.

Some local Fort McMurray-ites I have spoken with feel that federal government has not contributed its fair share in helping their community deal with these pressures – something that Conservative candidate David Yurdiga is likely to hear about at the doorsteps.

Federal cabinet minister Kellie Leitch campaigned with Conservative candidate David Yurdiga in Fort McMurray this week.
Federal cabinet minister Kellie Leitch campaigned with Conservative candidate David Yurdiga in Fort McMurray this week. (Photo from Ms. Leitch’s Twitter page @KellieLeitch)

Mr. Yurdiga hails from the vote-rich southern portion of the riding, where he is a councillor in the County of Athabasca (the area he represents on County Council will not be part of the new Fort McMurray-Cold Lake riding, which will be created at the next federal election).

The regional divide between the northern and southern parts of this riding are relevant and the large geographic distances can present a significant challenge in organizing an effective campaign.

Mr. Yurdiga will face a strong challenge from well-organized Liberal candidate Kyle Harrietha, who has been bolstered by Justin Trudeau, who has become a frequent visitor to the community over the past year.

Mr. Harrietha also draws on the support of an extensive network that includes provincial Progressive Conservatives, community organizers (he was a campaign manager for Wood Buffalo Mayor Melissa Blake) and the Metis community, who he works for as executive director of General Manager of Fort McMurray Métis Local 1935. 

While Mr. Harrietha is certainly the underdog in this race, resentment toward the former MP and a lacklustre Conservative nomination race could help him make gains in this by-election (and now would be a good time for Mr. Trudeau to make sure Ottawa-South MP David McGuinty does not stray off message).

NDP candidate Lori McDaniel with Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MP Linda Duncan (Photo from Lori McDaniel's Facebook Page).
NDP candidate Lori McDaniel with Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MP Linda Duncan (Photo from Lori McDaniel’s Facebook Page).

The New Democrats have nominated Suncor employee and Unifor Local 707A health and safety representative Lori McDaniel as their candidate. This by-election will be an important test for the official opposition NDP, who have been criticized by Conservatives for leader Tom Mulcair‘s ‘Dutch Disease‘ comments last year.

In a gesture of pan-Canadianism, it perhaps would not be a bad idea for Mr. Mulcair to fly his party’s large contingent of first-term MPs from Quebec to campaign alongside Ms. McDaniel in the by-election in our nation’s new industrial capital. It would probably help her campaign and expand the horizons of opposition MPs who are sometimes too eager to criticize those who work in Canada’s energy industry.

Federal by-elections in Alberta have proven to be unpredictable events and if the trend continues, as I sense it might, the results of the Fort McMurray-Athabasca vote could be very interesting on June 30.

Next post… a by-election in Cowboy Country (aka Macleod)… yah hoo.

Categories
Alberta Politics Canadian Politics Candidate nominations

Interesting federal nomination races emerging across Alberta

Edmonton's 2015 electoral districts as recommended by the Electoral Boundary Commission Final Report.
Edmonton’s 2015 electoral districts as recommended by the Electoral Boundary Commission Final Report.

Interesting nomination races are emerging across Alberta as parties prepare to choose candidates to run in the next federal election, slated for October 2015. Below are some of the most recent updates from ridings across the province, where candidates are seeking nominations to run in two by-elections and the general election.

By-elections

Macleod
Conservative Party members will choose their candidate at nomination meetings in Pincher Creek on March 6, Claresholm on March 7 and Okotoks on March 8. Five candidates remain in the contest after Rick Waljamaa withdrew from the race. The remaining candidates include John Barlow, Melissa Mathieson, Phil Rowland, and Scott Wagner. Firearms lobby groups and conservative media pundits have intervened to ensure that guns have become the dominant issue of the campaign.

Fort McMurray-Athabasca
First out of the gate, Kyle Harrietha announced that he is seeking the Liberal nomination to run in the impending by-election. Mr. Harrietha is a former Ottawa staffer and worked in Fort McMurray as the program manager of the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA). He now works as General Manager of Fort McMurray Métis Local 1935.

The NDP have recruited their first nomination candidate in Lori McDaniel, a Suncor employee and health and safety representative for Unifor Local 707A. Ms. McDaniel announced her plans as NDP leader Thomas Mulcair visited Fort McMurray last week.

Three-term councillor and former Athabasca County reeve David Yurdiga is the first candidate to enter the Conservative Party nomination contest. Mr. Yurdiga currently represents the Grasslands area, which will become part of the new Lakeland riding when the next general election is called and the new Fort McMurray-Cold Lake riding is created. The current boundaries will remain the same when the by-election is held.

General Election 2015

Banff-Airdrie
Incumbent Conservative MP Blake Richards will seek his party’s nomination in the new Banff-Airdrie riding. Mr. Richards has represented the current Wild Rose riding since 2006.

iPolitics.ca
is reporting that Marlo Raynolds is seeking the Liberal Party nomination in the new Banff-Airdrie riding. Mr. Raynolds is the former executive director of the Pembina Institute and spoke at last weekend’s federal Liberal Party convention in Montreal on the topic of cities and infrastructure investment. He currently serves Vice-President of Market Development for BluEarth Renewables.

Edmonton-Greisbach
Six Five candidates have stepped up to run for the NDP nomination in this east central Edmonton riding. Candidates include Canadian Labour Congress representative Amanda Freistadt, educator Janis Irwin, Cam McCormick, Namrata Gill, Bashir Mohamed and Zane Smith.

Edmonton-Riverbend
Five-term Conservative Member of Parliament James Rajotte plans to seek his party’s nomination in the new Edmonton-Riverbend riding. He has represented southwest Edmonton since 2000.

Edmonton-Wetaskiwin
Three-term Conservative MP Mike Lake has announced his plans to seek the Conservative nomination in the new Edmonton-Wetaskiwin riding. Mr. Lake has represented Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont since 2006 and lives in the south portion of Edmonton that will be included in the new riding. He will face Mohinder Banga for the Conservative nomination.

For up-to-date nomination news, follow the list of Alberta Federal Election candidates.