daveberta.ca - Alberta Politics and Elections

Well, I’m pretty glad I didn’t take any bets on last nights results.

So, what happened? Partisans and pundits can analyze this one to death, but I’m not sure it’s really that easy. In the end, the Tories got their vote out to get their 11th majority government since 1971. But with a 41% voter turnout it’s clear that none of the parties are connecting with Albertans on a meaningful level.

It’s hard to call a voter turnout of 41% anything but embarrassing.

It’s commonly said that elections are decided by those who show up, but with two consecutive elections with less than 50% turnout, are Albertans entering an era in which elections are decided by those who don’t show up? In Edmonton, seven constituencies saw voter turnout lower than 40% and only one had turnout (barely) over 50% (Edmonton-Whitemud). It seems pretty clear that not only are none of the parties really connecting with Albertans, but that Albertans are completely disengaged from the electoral process, which is very troubling.

I’m really wondering what were the 59% of Albertans who didn’t vote were doing yesterday that was more important than voting?

Here’s an overview of how the election turned out in Alberta’s three main political regions…

In Edmonton, welcome to 2001 + 2.

Ed Stelmach’s Tories have returned Edmonton to their 2001 win with the addition of Edmonton-Decore, Edmonton-Mill Woods, and Edmonton-Ellerslie (it’s +2 and not +3 because Edmonton lost a seat after the 2003 electoral redistribution).

I’ve always believed that Edmonton was competitive, but I didn’t believe that it would be this competitive. Along with Decore, Ellerslie, and Mill Woods, close races in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview, Edmonton-Calder, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-McClung, and Edmonton-Rutherford gave the Tories the large majority of the capital. The Tories swept all but five seats in Edmonton, leaving the capital city with an opposition of 5, the survivors being Alberta Liberals Kevin Taft in Edmonton-Riverview, Laurie Blakeman in Edmonton-Centre, and Hugh MacDonald in Edmonton-Gold Bar, and New Democrats Brian Mason in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood and Rachel Notley in Edmonton-Strathcona. Though most races in the capital city could be considered close, with abysmal turnout and lost support, both the Alberta Liberals and New Democrats will need to take a critical look at why they lost so much ground in their former stronghold of Edmonton.

New Edmotnon Tory faces of note include former School Board Trustee Janice Sarich and Emergency Room doctor Raj Sherman.

On a personal note, I am really disappointed to see three of the Legislature’s most effective MLAs lose their seats last night. I’m talking about Rick Miller in Edmonton-Rutherford, Mo Elsalhy in Edmonton-McClung, and David Eggen in Edmonton-Calder. I’ve had the opportunity to work with Rick, Mo, and David on a number of issues over the past few years and I think I would have a hard time finding harder working and more genuinely good spirited people under the dome. I’m sad to that they were defeated, but wish them good luck in the next stages of their lives. Take a break, but try not to go too far.

Calgary is an interesting one. The great Liberal surge that every one was talking about never really emerged, but interestingly the Liberals actually net-gained one seat inside Calgary. While holding the seats they gained in 2004 and losing Craig Cheffins in Calgary-Elbow, the Alberta Liberals elected Kent Hehr in Calgary-Buffalo and Darshan Kang in Calgary-McCall, bringing the total to 5 opposition MLAs in Calgary. This is an emerging dynamic that could be a sign of the new face of a politically competitive Calgary.

The Tories held their ground, but faced strong challenges in Calgary-Bow, Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Foothills, and Calgary-North Hill. The Tories also elected a swath of new MLAs including big names Teresa Woo-Paw and Alison Redford, while star candidate Arthur Kent was unable to unseat Dave Taylor in Calgary-Currie.

Also, Independent Robin Leech in Calgary-Montrose placed a very strong second against Tory Manmeet Bhullar. And after much hoopla, former-Tory Craig Chandler placed third in Calgary-Egmont behind Tory Jonathan Denis and Liberal Cathie Williams.

Lethbridge and wildcards

Not much has changed as Lethbridge remains split between the Tories and the Liberals. Bridget Pastoor held Lethbridge-East for the Liberals. Lethbridge-West went to the Tory Greg Weadick over Liberal Bal Boora.

In Cardston-Taber-Warner, Wildrose Alliance Leader Paul Hinman apparently lost his seat to Tory Broyce Jacobs by 39 votes. I’d expect a recount at this point, but only a reversal of the results could save Hinman’s leadership in his now seatless party.

For the Alberta Greens, their big hope in Lacombe-Ponoka wasn’t able to overcome Tory Ray Prins. In the end, Green Joe Anglin netted 22% of the vote to Prins 58%.

What’s next?

Well, congratulations to everyone who ran, volunteered, and voted in this election. Democracy only works if citizens participate, and we now have to figure out how to get that 59% of voters to opt-in to the democratic system (in its current or a different form).

Tomorrow, I’m going to be posting on what the results mean for each of Alberta’s political parties.

The polls have opened in Alberta’s 2008 Provincial election and I’m off to go and vote at my polling station at Allendale School in Edmonton-Strathcona. The polls will be open until 8:00 p.m. tonight, so make sure to get out and vote!

Find out where to vote here.

If you haven’t already, take a look at your local candidates here.

With the election polls opening in less than 8 hours, here’s a look at some of the Calgary races that I will be keeping an eye on after the polls close tomorrow night.

The big talk of the campaign has largely been “what’s happening in Calgary?” With the departure of Ralph Klein last year, Calgarians found themselves on the outside under Ed Stelmach‘s Tories, which as led to the real proposition that Alberta Liberal gains are on the horizon in this city (building on their three MLAs elected in 2004 and the election of Craig Cheffins in the June 2007 Calgary-Elbow by-election).

Though the Tories’ 37-year advantage in political organizing in Calgary shouldn’t be underestimated, the Alberta Liberals have probably put together their most impressive list of Calgary candidates since Harper Prowse in 1955 – in 2008 the list includes Kent Hehr, Beth Gignac, Mike Robinson, Cathie Williams, Greg Flanagan, Laura Shutiak, and Michael Embaie among others. This obviously doesn’t equal an automatic win for these candidates, but it does say a lot about the changing political environment in this city that a political party other than the ruling Tories were able to recruit strong local candidates.

Calgary becoming a competitive political environment on the provincial level is exciting, but I’m going to remain cautiously optimistic and wait for Calgarians to surprise me tomorrow.

Constituencies I will be keeping an eye on will be Calgary-Bow, Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Egmont, Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Fish Creek, Calgary-Foothills, Calgary-Glenmore, Calgary-McCall, Calgary-Montrose, Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-North Hill, Calgary-North West, Calgary-Varsity, and Calgary-West.