…ring ring…
My prediction for today‘s provincial election in New Brunswick…
Liberal – 29
Progressive Conservative – 26 (I originally wrote 28, but meant 26 – there are only 55 seats)
New Democrats – 0
Premier Shawn Graham? We’ll find out…
UPDATE: Yes. Well, it looks like my predictions were smack on the mark! Premier Shawn Graham.
Back in April, Tory Premier Ralph Klein announced he would sign a letter of resignation in September. Later, it was clarified that it would be September 16. It’s now September 17 and no letter. Maybe he decided that he’s fine with 55.4% support?
But seriously, it really doesn’t matter if Klein sends in his resignation this week or next, the candidates for his replacement are in full gear ready to storm the ancient gates of Castle Klein. It will most likely start to get a little concerning for Tories if Klein hasn’t made his move by next week, as I’m sure they’d like to take a look at the official rules of the race (and for the race to begin on paper at some point).
I neglected to comment on it at the time, but I found the semi-conflict between Klein and former Premier Peter Lougheed a couple of weeks ago to be quite interesting. I thought it was pretty low of Klein to take a shot at Peter Lougheed – a man who has more solid policy and province-building experience than Klein could ever dream of having. Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson had some interesting experts from Lougheed on his opinion of today’s Alberta on his blog.
Carolyn Bennett‘s withdrawal from the Federal Liberal leadership race and endorsement of Bob Rae wasn’t a complete surprise. I’d heard rumours that Bennett was going to drop out and I don’t find it totally surprising that she endorsed Rae (as this was part of the rumour). Interestingly, Bennett first unsuccessful ran for the Ontario Liberals against Tory Isabel Bassett in Toronto riding of St. Andrew-St. Patrick in the 1995 election which saw the defeat of Bob Rae’s Ontario NDP government.
Bennett’s withdrawal from the race leaves nine candidates left in the fight – Gerard Kennedy, Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, Ken Dryden, Stephane Dion, Scott Brison, Martha Hall Findlay, Hedy Fry, and Joe Volpe. Both Gerard Kennedy and Martha Hall Findlay launched new websites last week.
The New Brunswick provincial election is tomorrow! Unlike it’s provincial neighbour to the east (Nova Scotia), the political environment in New Brunswick is a near tie between Shawn Graham’s Liberals and Premier Bernard Lord’s Tories (poll results released on September 13 had the Liberals and PC’s polling at a dead heat of 46% with Allison Brewer’s NDP in a distant third at 7%). It should be very interesting to see what happens tomorrow night!
This past week, Michael Ignatieff was in Edmonton at a reception hosted at the home of Senator Grant Mitchell. I didn’t get the chance to go, but I heard there was a decent turnout of around 50 people at the Mitchell residence in southwest Edmonton.
Speaking of Federal Liberal leadership candidates, Gerard Kennedy will be in Edmonton on Tuesday at a BBQ at the Ottwell Community Hall (5920 93A Avenue) from 7pm to 9pm. It’s a free event too! I think I’ll try to make it out.
Speaking of Gerard Kennedy, the by-election for his former seat of Parkdale-High Park in the Ontario Provincial Parliament was this week. Ontario NDP candidate Cheri DiNovo trumped Ontario Liberal Sylvia Watson. The final results look like:
Cheri DiNovo, NDP – 11,675 (41%)
Sylvia Watson, Liberal – 9,387 (33%)
David Hutcheon, PC – 4,921 (17.3%)
Frank DeJong, Grn – 1,758 (6.2%)
Stan Grzywna, FCP – 366 (1.3%)
Jim McIntosh, Libertarian – 162 (0.6%)
Silvio Ursomarzo, Freedom – 111 (0.4%)
John Turmel, Ind – 77 (0.3%)
It’s not totally surprising that the Ontario NDP picked up the seat, as I am predicting they will pick up more in the next Ontario provincial election expected next spring.
Edmonton Rutherford MLA and Liberal Finance Critic Rick Miller took the plunge this week and rappelled down the side of the 29-story Sutton Place Hotel in downtown Edmonton.
Why would anyone do this you say? For charity of course! At final count, Miller raised $2,314 for the Alberta Easter Seals – beating his target goal of $2,000.
Not only is Rick Miller one of the most effective Liberal MLA’s, but he is for sure now one of the coolest.
On another note, it looks like Alberta PC leadership candidate Dave Hancock and I agree about the topic of my previous posts. The Edmonton Journal also has a decent editorial on Ted Morton and Jim Dinning‘s out-of-province fundraising for their Tory leadership bids.
Following my previous post about the out-of-province that Alberta PC leadership candidates Jim Dinning and Ted Morton were doing in British Columbia, it appears that Dinning will be pitching for cash at Toronto and Winnipeg fundraisers later this month…
Former Alberta treasurer Jim Dinning’s supporters also hosted a Vancouver event last week, and have scheduled fundraising bashes later this month in Toronto and Winnipeg, where they’ve canvassed previously.
This leaves the question: should candidates for provincial internal-party leaderships be allowed to fundraise outside Alberta?
Because there are no rules stating that Alberta PC leadership candidates have to publicly announce the names of the individuals and corporations that donate to their campaign, Tories, Albertans, and Canadians will have no ideas as to who or where in Canada the campaign money is coming from.
In a decisive internal-party race where the next Alberta PC leader will become Premier, are Alberta Tories really okay with letting out-of-provincers fund the candidate of their choice?
UPDATE: Paula Simons has a good article on the out-of-province fundraising issue: Outsiders help bankroll leadership candidates: ‘If non-residents can’t vote for a Tory leader, they shouldn’t be able to buy one either.’
Not that I really think that there is anything of substance to the Peter Mackay-Condi Rice gossip, but it turns out that this blog is the 2# google photo hit for Peter Mackay…
UPDATE: Because the link to the Star isn’t working, this is what I was referring to…
The Alberta Tories had their first unofficial leadership debate last night in St. Albert. Though 500 Tories showed up, it doesn’t sound like it was very exciting.
I get the feeling that this might have been taken out of context (actually, probably not…)…
Dave Hancock‘s suggestion that Alberta lawmakers address the abuse of alcohol and drugs since 70% of people incarcerated are admitted addicts was quickly dismissed by hardliner Ted Morton.
“My parents don’t care about the root causes of crime,” Morton snapped.
okay… huh?
Yesterday, Kevin Taft’s Alberta Liberals released their plan for Alberta’s future:
Edmonton – A Heritage Fund of $120 billion is the centrepiece of a fiscal strategy released by the Alberta Liberals today, titled Alberta’s Opportunity: Funding Alberta’s Future.
The strategy provides a solution for turning Alberta’s non-renewable resources into a sustainable source of prosperity that will support world-class public services, an outstanding post-secondary education system and permanently competitive taxes.
“This plan will convert Alberta’s non-renewable oil and gas wealth into permanent prosperity,” said Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft. “Right now the province is booming, but we desperately need a plan to secure our future, or the boom will go bust.” Read the rest.
The announcement included a new document outlining the plan titled “Funding Alberta’s Future.“
UPDATE: Here are some news stories on the Alberta Liberals plan:
Liberals want $120B Heritage Fund by 2021
Boost Heritage fund for future: Grit leader
According to the good folks at Public Eye Online, two Alberta Tory leadership candidates are and have been making fundraising pitches due west of Alberta. Ted Morton and Jim Dinning have been spotted pitching for cash in British Columbia.
Ted Morton is holding a $1,500 a table fundraiser at the posh Hyatt Regency on Burrard Street in downtown Vancouver on September 22.
Morton’s event is being promoted by Byng Giraud of Earnscliffe Strategy Group Inc. The Earnscliffe group shared very close political connections with former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin and formerly employed Liberal campaign strategists Scott Reid and David Herle.
Jim Dinning was reported to have been “schmoozing at a pricey $250 per ticket fundraiser for his campaign at Gotham Steakhouse and Cocktail Bar. The event was apparently attended by “a who’s who from the downtown Tory crowd.” Public Eye Online also points out the appearance of Jim Dinning’s strong corporate BC backers which include Finning Canada.
A new poll released last week by Ipsos places Jim Dinning in the lead in the Alberta PC leadership race…
Jim Dinning (54%) The Frontrunner In Favourability Ratings – Lyle Oberg (48%) In Second Place With Dave Hancock (44%) Gaining Momentum
One-Quarter (26%) Of Albertans Think Dinning Would Do The Best Job As The Next Premier, But Oberg (21%) Hot On His Trail
It’s no surprise that Dinning is in the lead, but I find it very surprising that Lyle Oberg is placing second. As well, I found Dave Hancock’s third place finish and the suggestion that he is “gaining momentum” to also be interesting. I wonder if this polling actually reflects the candidate’s membership sales…
The first leadership debate for this race will take place tomorrow night in St. Albert. This is the first official Alberta PC leadership debate, which will occur before Premier Ralph Klein tenders his resignation letter next Saturday…
The contenders in this race now include Jim Dinning, Dave Hancock, Lyle Oberg, Ed Stelmach, Mark Norris, Ted Morton, Victor Doerksen, Alana DeLong, and Greg McPherson.
I’ll write more on the other contenders soon, but since the entry of social conservative Red Deer South MLA Victor Doerksen, the rumour mill has been spinning… there seem to be three main rumours surrounding Doerksen’s intentions…
1) Doerksen is running a legitimate campaign to be leader of the Alberta PC’s.
2) Doerksen is really supporting Jim Dinning, but is running in an attempt to split the social conservative vote with Ted Morton.
3) Doerksen is really supporting Ted Morton, but is running in an attempt to energize the social conservative vote so that Doerksen can drop out and endorse Morton before the selection process – making it an endorsement of another leadership candidate, rather than just an MLA.
Does anyone else have any thoughts on this???
Woot. I’m going to the Bedouin Soundclash and Radio Vacana show tonight. Should be fun!
More wonderful blogging coming soon.
UPDATE: Radio Vacana and Bedouin were great. It was a fun concert 🙂
A bit of an update for the first full week of September…
– The Tyee has an interesting article on the real effects of Ralph Klein’s legacy.
– Maclean’s magazine seems to be continuing it’s right-wing slide with last week’s online poll that asks if parents should pay for their adult children’s post-secondary education. I’ve never been able to understand why the parents of an adult student should be even remotely responsible and expected to pay for their education costs. This is one of the greatest flaws in Canada’s student finance system.
Maclean’s used to be a good magazine, but now holds only one consistantly good contributor, of who’s best work can be found online for free.
– This seems like quite the blow to Jack Layton’s NDP. The defection of Paul Summerville to the Bob Rae leadership campaigns…
– Alberta PC leadership candidate Ted Morton has launched his new website. Campaign colours? Black.
– Also, props to the Calgary Grit for posting this one before I did…
I don’t pay attention to international politics for a week and all of a sudden…
WE SHOULD NUKE IRAN
By: MICHAEL CORENIt is surely obvious now to anybody with even a basic understanding of history, politics and the nature of fascism that something revolutionary has to be done within months — if not weeks — if we are to preserve world peace.
Put boldly and simply, we have to drop a nuclear bomb on Iran.
and then…
Ahmadinejad calls for university purge
POSTED: 2341 GMT (0741 HKT), September 5, 2006TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran’s hard-line president urged students Tuesday to push for a purge of liberal and secular university teachers, another sign of his determination to strengthen Islamic fundamentalism in the country.
I think it’s safe to say that both these men are crazy.
This week, federal Liberal leadership candidate Ken Dryden unleashed his vision for “A Big Canada.” I didn’t read most of the document, but I skipped forward to the education portion.
I was shocked to see this included:
(a) We will establish a national income-contingent student loan repayment program (ICLR) to help individual youth and mature students finance their post-secondary education.
Income-contingent loan repayment (ICLR) is a bad bad idea, Mr. Dryden. These types of systems serve as methods of shifting the cost of post-secondary education away from the government (who should be properly funding the post-secondary education system in the first place) and on to students.
As well, income-contingent loan repayment schemes result in those with lower incomes paying substantially more for the cost of their education due to lengthy payment periods mixed with increasing interest payments.
Mr. Dryden needs to take a look at jurisdictions such as New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom that have income-contingent loan repayment schemes and have seen a corresponding and dramatic increase in tuition fees and other education costs since the implementation of this regressive system.
Instead of implementing an income-contingent loan repayment scheme, I would suggest that Mr. Dryden look at creating and implementing a dedicated post-secondary transfer payment from the Federal Government to the Provinces that will deal specifically with tuition levels – which leads to high debt and is the most direct cost that governments can affect. Proper investment in PSE will make regressive schemes like ICLR even more useless than they already are.
Time to step up to the plate, Mr. Dryden.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The more involved I get in partisan politics, the more I dislike political parties.
I’ve thought about going to the Federal Liberal leadership convention in Montreal in November, but I just can’t find the interest (and the money of course, how ridiculous is it that it will cost over $1000 to attend as a party delegate). Though I like Gerard Kennedy, and think he would be a better leader for the fedlibs than most of the other options, I’m just not really excited about Federal politics in Canada. Harper is boring (and a Conservative). Layton has a talented caucus, but he seems like a flash-in-the-pan. The only real excitement seems to be coming from Elizabeth May’s election as leader of the Greens.
I still enjoy provincial politics in Alberta and municipal politics in Edmonton though.
I’m just not to hot on the partisaness anymore.
Maybe something will change.
On another note, this is fun.
