Avalon Roberts was chosen as the Liberal candidate at a nomination meeting in Calgary-Glenmore this week. Over 150 Liberals are reported to have shown up to participate in the meeting, where Roberts faced off against Corey Hogan. (Matthew Naylor live-blogged the evening)
Paul Hinman has been officially nominated as the Wild Rose Alliance candidate.
A by-election to replace former MLA Ron Stevens is expected to take place in Fall 2009.
– June 16 is the date of the Conservative nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona. Linda Blade, Ryan Hastman, and Cathay Wagantall have spent the last month duking it out for the opportunity to run against NDP MP Linda Duncan.
– June 22 is the date of the Alberta Liberal nomination in Calgary-Glenmore that will see Corey Hogan and Avalon Roberts face off for the right to carry their party’s banner into the upcoming by-election to replace former PC MLA Ron Stevens.
– June 23 is the date of the Wild Rose Alliance nomination meeting in Calgary-Glenmore. It looks as if outgoing leader and former Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Paul Hinman may be the only candidate to seek the nod.
– Danielle Smith: Wild Rose Renaissance? One blogger is boldly predicting that she is “the greatest threat to the Tory dynasty in Alberta since Laurence Decore.”
– Former Ontario NDP MPP, nearly interested Liberal, and now Calgary Mayoral candidate George Dadamo will soon be accepting applications for new campaign staff.
– The Alberta NDP hosted a revitalization conference in Edmonton last weekend. I am told that BC MP Nathan Cullen knocked the socks off the over 100 attendees with a rousing speech. Union orgainzer Eric Carpendale has been appointed as the NDP candidate for the upcoming Calgary-Glenmore by-election.
PC: Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart was acclaimed as the PC candidate last night.
Liberal: Corey Hogan is reported to have been joined by two-time candidate Avalon Roberts in a nomination contest scheduled for June 22nd.
Wildrose Alliance: Former Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA and soon-to-be former leader Paul Hinman is busy pounding the pavement and Danielle Smith and Mark Dyrholm will soon declare their intentions to contest their party leadership. The local nomination contest is scheduled for June 23rd.
Social Credit: Obscure leader of former governing party Len Skowronski is running.
NDP, Greens?
1. How will Premier Ed Stelmach shuffle cabinet?
Premier Ed Stelmach may avert a shuffle by taking personal responsibility of the Intergovernmental Affairs Minister portfolio (as former Premier Ralph Klein did from 1993 to 1994). If the Premier decides to shuffle the cabinet, this could mean a rearranging the current cabinet or promoting a backbencher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the capable Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber appointed to a cabinet spot, as this would keep Calgary’s cabinet representation at the same level.
From a (by-)electoral standpoint, it would be smart for Stelmach to increase the number of Calgary cabinet ministers before the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore. If this is the route the Premier takes, Webber could be joined by newer Calgary region MLAs like Manmeet Bhullar, Kyle Fawcett, Dr. Neil Brown, Dave Rodney, Rob Anderson, or even Klein-era Cabinet Minister turned Stelmach-era backbencher Heather Forsyth.
While Stevens’ resignation gives Stelmach the opportunity to shuffle the less talented elements out of the cabinet, the Premier has a track record of being incredibly loyal to his supporters, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near status quo cabinet shuffle.
2. Will the resulting by-election in Calgary-Glenmore be an opening for the Wildrose Alliance?
The Wildrose Alliance (and its predecessor) increased its support in Calgary-Glenmore from 571 votes (5%) in 2004 to 1,025 (8%) in 2008. By-elections traditionally attract a lower voter turnout than General Elections, so a high profile candidate could potentially do well while taking advantage of the lower turnout. Rumoured Wildrose Alliance leadership candidate Danielle Smith could mount a strong challenge for the right-wing party in this by-election.
PC MLAs have represented this riding since 1969 and the PC Party will fight hard to avoid the embarrassment of a Calgary-Elbow style defeat. As predicted, Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart is the first candidate to publicly enter the PC nomination contest.
This is the first electoral test that Calgary-Mountain View MLA David Swann will face since becoming Leader of the Alberta Liberal Party in December 2008. Swann is the first Calgary-based Liberal leader since the 1970s, so this by-election will be an important indicator of his party’s appeal in Alberta’s largest city, and it will be an uphill battle. In 2008, Calgary-Glenmore Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts earned 33%, while Liberal MLA Craig Cheffins was narrowly defeated in neighbouring Calgary-Elbow. Former Ontario MPP George Dadamo is the first candidate to publicly express interest in the Liberal nomination.
With a website and Twitter account up and running, it appears that George Dadamo is in the race to represent the Alberta Liberal Party in the imminent Calgary-Glenmore by-election.
A radio broadcaster and media writer, Dadamo represented Windsor-Sandwich in the Ontario Legislature from 1990 to 1995, where he served as Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Transportation in Premier Bob Rae‘s NDP government.
While running a candidate with government experience would be a big catch for David Swann‘s Liberal Official Opposition (and a vote of no-confidence in Brian Mason‘s NDP), I can imagine that his opponents in the nomination race and the by-election won’t hesitate to highlight any Rae Days connections of Dadamo’s past.
Alberta’s Deputy Premier and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Ron Stevens resigned from Cabinet and the Legislature this afternoon.
First elected in 1997, Stevens replaced Dianne Mirosh as the MLA for Calgary-Glenmore. Stevens served in the cabinets of both Premiers Ralph Klein and Ed Stelmach. Since Stelmach became Premier in 2006, Stevens has served as the PCs designated heavy hitter in Calgary. Taxpayer’s Federation Director Scott Hennig reports that Stevens is eligible to collect an estimated $451,000 in transition allowance.
Stevens’ departure leaves a big hole to be filled in the PC cabinet as Calgary’s senior Cabinet Minister position now falls to Health Minister Ron Liepert. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Parliamentary Assistant and Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber invited to join Cabinet, it may take Stelmach some time to find a Calgary Lieutenant as well-connected to Calgary’s corporate elites as Stevens. A former PC insider has informed me that Treasury Board President Lloyd Snelgrove will take over Stevens now former role as acting-Premier in Stelmach’s absence.
A by-election has yet to be called in Calgary-Glenmore, but I’ve already heard rumours that Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart may seek the PC nomination. This by-election could also serve as a springboard for Danielle Smith’s potential campaign for the Wild Rose Alliance leadership.
In 2008, five Liberal MLAs were elected in Calgary, including their new leader, David Swann. Will their March 2008 electoral gains help the Liberals attract a viable local candidate? In 1963, Bill Dickie was elected as the Liberal MLA for Calgary-Glenmore and was re-elected as a Liberal in 1967 before joining Peter Lougheed‘s PCs in 1969 (the Liberals would not elect another MLA in Calgary until Sheldon Chumir was elected in Calgary-Buffalo in 1986).
Calgary-Glenmore Past-Election Results
2008
Ron Stevens, PC 6,436 (51%)
Avalon Roberts, Lib 4,213 (33%)
Ryan Sadler, WRA 1,025 (8%)
Arden Bonokoski, G 550 (4%)
Holly Heffernan, NDP 477 (4%)
Total: 12,701
2004
Ron Stevens, PC 6,263 (50%)
Avalon Roberts, Lib 4,364 (35%)
Ernest McCutchon, AA 571 (5%)
Holly Heffernan, NDP 553 (4%)
Evan Sklarski, Grn 532 (4%)
Larry Heather, SC 127 (1%)
Total: 12,410
2001
Ron Stevens, PC 9,678 (68%)
Michael Broadhurst, Lib 3,708 (26%)
James Kohut, Grn 467 (3%)
Jennifer Stewart, NDP 441 (3%)
Total: 14,294
1997
Ron Stevens, PC 8,247 (58%)
Wayne Stewart, Lib 4,919 (35%)
Vernan Cook, SC 583 (4%)
Grace Johner, NDP 435 (3%)
Total: 14,184
SEE ALSO: Ken Chapman: Deputy Premier Stevens throws in the Towel and Calgary Grit: This Week in Alberta: Aloha Ron
David Climenhaga was the first to write about it last week, and this week, Ontario blogger Stephen Taylor has posted a video interview with Danielle Smith where she suggests that her bid for the Wildrose Alliance leadership is very likely. Smith resigned from her position at Canadian Federation of Independent Business last Friday.
During the interview, Smith mentioned that a PC MLA had approached her to run as a PC candidate in a potential Fall 2009 by-election in Calgary. Over the past three months, a number of sources have indicated to me that Calgary-Glenmore PC MLA & Deputy Premier Ron Stevens may resign before the end of the year.
(h/t Dawn Walton)
