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Brian Mason Danielle Smith David Swann Ed Stelmach Heather Forsyth Rob Anderson Sarah Palin

danielle smith’s free-ride.

Since stepping into her new role as leader of the Wildrose Alliance, Danielle Smith has taken on more of a celebrity role than that of the leader of a party with 3 seats in a 83 seat Legislative Assembly. Ms. Smith is impressively politically savvy, and judging by the attention she has been receiving from the media, you would have a hard time believing that she is not the elected leader of Alberta’s Official Opposition.

Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle SmithLet's Make it Happen

Little of the incredible media attention received by Ms. Smith has focused on her party’s policy or even her political stances. I do not believe that I have read any reporter or columnist seriously dig into Ms. Smith’s only past-experience as an elected official on the Calgary Board of Education which began in 1998 and ended when the Minister of Learning dissolved the board in 1999 (which I covered in part 1, part 2, part 3, and part 4). The by-election victory in Calgary-Glenmore, the floor-crossings of PC MLAs Heather Forsyth and Rob Anderson, and rise in the polls are convincing (and exciting) political coups in the context of an otherwise boring political environment. At least in the short-term, Ms. Smith has definitely changed the game.

Ms. Smith has faced some criticism for her confusing views on climate change and her former Chief of Staff felt the repercussions of an uneasy Twitter finger, but she has easily deflected questions about hard policy questions by telling the media to wait until her party’s upcoming policy conference or hiding behind the label of libertarianism.

Premier Ed Stelmach has labelled Wildrose Alliance policies as “draconian,” but in the context of his falling popularity, the Premier’s reaction smacked of desperation and political spin (however accurate his comments may have been). Even the recent cabinet shuffle was framed as a reaction to the increasing popularity of Ms. Smith’s party. The reaction of the Official Opposition Liberal Party was to launch of a YouTube video comparing Premier Stelmach and Ms. Smith to Ronald Reagan and Brian Mulroney (a strategy that top minds are still attempting to decrypt).

An American conservative blogger recently held Ms. Smith up as “a guiding northern star for the building anti-establishment movement in the GOP” and suggested that her “delivery reminds me of Sarah Palin when she’s at her best.” I recognize that these are the words of one individual with a website, but it is not the first time that I have heard conservatives speak of Ms. Smith in that manner.

The Ontario media appears to have warmly embraced Ms. Smith by lobbing softball questions and accepting vague answers. During a stint as a guest panelist on CTVs Question Period, Smith was asked questions about Social Credit leader Harry Strom and almost accepted as the next leader of Alberta. Her coverage on Peter Mansbridge’s One-on-One and upcoming on Rick Mercer’s Report is also unprecedented for an opposition leader in Alberta.

Amidst this flurry of media attention, nearly no additional attention is paid to the actual opposition leaders elected by Albertans in the 2008 election as David Swann and Brian Mason continue to linger stalled in the polls in the unconvincing ranks of the opposition benches. I tend to believe this is symptomatic of the antipathy felt towards to traditional political parties in Alberta. This antipathy is likely why non-traditional groups like the Wildrose Alliance, Renew Alberta, and Reboot Alberta are attracting a growing number of Albertans into their ranks, while the traditional opposition parties are barricading their gates without taking stock of the decreasing value of their guarded treasures. While some people are holding out for change within the two traditional opposition parties (or simply asking them to get their acts together!), I tend to believe that it is likely too late.

With Premier Stelmach appearing politically weak and a provincial election expected in 2012, will the guardians of establishment conservatism in Alberta sit idly while their movement is fractured between the Wildrose Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Party? With this scenario in mind, is it too far fetched to foresee a scenario in the not too distant future where Premier Ted Morton welcomes Danielle Smith as the Finance Minister in a government formed by the newly merged Conservative Party of Alberta?

UPDATE: David Climenhaga has written a response to this blog post listing the top 11 reasons he feels Albertans should not support the Wildrose Alliance . Climenhaga’s list prompted the Alberta Altruist blog to pen a response.

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Danielle Smith Heather Forsyth Paul Hinman Rob Anderson

photo post: wildrose alliance floor-crossers.

I attended the Wildrose Alliance media conference today at the Alberta Legislature. At the conference, leader Danielle Smith and MLAs Paul Hinman, Heather Forsyth, and Rob Anderson took some questions. Recall was their big issue. I am not the biggest fan of recall. While they could be more vigourous and competitive, I believe that this is the reason why we have elections every four to five years. Sometimes our elected officials are just plain bad at their jobs and sometimes they have to make really tough (and unpopular) decisions. It is easy to confuse the two. Recall focuses on the negative, rather than recognizing the positive role that our elected officials can play in our communities.

Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle SmithWildrose Alliance MLAs
Wildrose Alliance MLAsWildrose Alliance MLAs
Wildrose Alliance MLAsWildrose Alliance MLAs

Also, If you are looking for a thoughtful read, Duncan Wojtaszek was written an excellent blog post on the topic of floor-crossing.
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Danielle Smith Heather Forsyth Rob Anderson

pc mlas rob anderson and heather forsyth join the wildrose alliance.

As mentioned in an update to my previous post, a media release on Airdrie-Chestermere Progressive Conservative MLA Rob Anderson‘s website has announced that he and Calgary-Fish Creek MLA Heather Forsyth are crossing the floor to the Wildrose Alliance. Anderson was quoted in the release:

Over the past two years, I have committed myself to trying to make a positive impact within the government caucus by clearly advocating for the views and needs of my constituents. Unfortunately, the current PC Party Leadership has failed to address my constituent’s concerns and will not permit me to speak publicly about these issues. Instead of remaining silent I have decided to stand up with even greater force for the people who elected me,” stated Anderson. “This is what the citizens of Alberta pay me to do. This is what my constituents expect of me. I have no interest in investing any more of my life and taxpayers’ money defending poor public policy that has been developed by a small band of out-of-touch government appointees and insiders.”

Anderson was first elected in 2008 and Forsyth was first elected in 1993. After serving as Solicitor General and Minister of Children’s Services under Premier Ralph Klein, Forsyth was bumped from cabinet when Premier Ed Stelmach entered office. These defections will now make the Wildrose Alliance caucus the third largest caucus in the Alberta Legislature (with three MLAs), bumping the NDP to fourth.

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Craig Cheffins Dave Rodney David Swann Ed Stelmach Heather Forsyth Kyle Fawcett Len Webber Manmeet Bhullar Ron Stevens

three questions about calgary-glenmore and cabinet shuffles.

With the resignation of Deputy Premier and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Ron Stevens last week causing an imminent by-election in Calgary-Glenmore, Edmonton Journal Political Writer Trish Audette posed the following three questions which I have responded with my thoughts:

1. How will Premier Ed Stelmach shuffle cabinet?

Premier Ed Stelmach may avert a shuffle by taking personal responsibility of the Intergovernmental Affairs Minister portfolio (as former Premier Ralph Klein did from 1993 to 1994). If the Premier decides to shuffle the cabinet, this could mean a rearranging the current cabinet or promoting a backbencher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the capable Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber appointed to a cabinet spot, as this would keep Calgary’s cabinet representation at the same level.

From a (by-)electoral standpoint, it would be smart for Stelmach to increase the number of Calgary cabinet ministers before the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore. If this is the route the Premier takes, Webber could be joined by newer Calgary region MLAs like Manmeet Bhullar, Kyle Fawcett, Dr. Neil Brown, Dave Rodney, Rob Anderson, or even Klein-era Cabinet Minister turned Stelmach-era backbencher Heather Forsyth.

While Stevens’ resignation gives Stelmach the opportunity to shuffle the less talented elements out of the cabinet, the Premier has a track record of being incredibly loyal to his supporters, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near status quo cabinet shuffle.

2. Will the resulting by-election in Calgary-Glenmore be an opening for the Wildrose Alliance?

The Wildrose Alliance (and its predecessor) increased its support in Calgary-Glenmore from 571 votes (5%) in 2004 to 1,025 (8%) in 2008. By-elections traditionally attract a lower voter turnout than General Elections, so a high profile candidate could potentially do well while taking advantage of the lower turnout. Rumoured Wildrose Alliance leadership candidate Danielle Smith could mount a strong challenge for the right-wing party in this by-election.

3. How hard are the Conservatives and Liberals going to fight for this riding?

PC MLAs have represented this riding since 1969 and the PC Party will fight hard to avoid the embarrassment of a Calgary-Elbow style defeat. As predicted, Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart is the first candidate to publicly enter the PC nomination contest.

This is the first electoral test that Calgary-Mountain View MLA David Swann will face since becoming Leader of the Alberta Liberal Party in December 2008. Swann is the first Calgary-based Liberal leader since the 1970s, so this by-election will be an important indicator of his party’s appeal in Alberta’s largest city, and it will be an uphill battle. In 2008, Calgary-Glenmore Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts earned 33%, while Liberal MLA Craig Cheffins was narrowly defeated in neighbouring Calgary-Elbow. Former Ontario MPP George Dadamo is the first candidate to publicly express interest in the Liberal nomination.