the day after: alberta election analysis.

Alberta Election Results 2012

Alberta Election Results 2012

What was expected to be the most exciting provincial election in history of our province turned out to be a continuation of the 41-year old Progressive Conservative dynasty. The pollsters, the media, and the pundits (including this blogger) appear to have completely misjudged the electoral climate in the final days of the election.

Unofficial Results
PC: 61
Wildrose: 17
Liberal: 5
NDP: 4

It appears that the PC Party call to moderate voters to vote strategically to block the Wildrose Party from forming government was successful in Calgary, Edmonton, and northern Alberta. While the Tories ran a completely lacklustre campaign, Albertans’ unease with the thorny social conservative views of Wildrose candidates Allan Hunsperger and Ron Leech undoubtedly drew moderates to cast their ballots for the PCs yesterday.

Alison Redford Alberta Election 2012 Conservative leader

Alison Redford

At least for now, Premier Alison Redford is secure in her position as leader of the PC Party. The PCs have re-elected a number of veteran MLAs, including Dave Hancock in Edmonton-Whitemud, and a new cast of rookie MLAs who will amount to about 1/3 of the governing caucus.

The golden rule of Alberta elections remains truth: never bet against the incumbent.

The Tories have lost many of their former strongholds in rural Alberta and cabinet giants, including Ted Morton in Chestermere-Rockyview, Evan Berger in Livingstone-Macleod, Jack Hayden in Drumheller-Stettler, and Ray Danyluk in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills. Successful use of wedge issues like property rights likely played a significant role in the Wildrose winning these rural constituencies.

Danielle Smith Wildrose Party Alberta Election 2012

Danielle Smith

With 17 MLA’s, Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party will form the Official Opposition in the Assembly. Ms. Smith’s challenges are two-fold. First, she must manage the expectations of disappointed caucus members who expected to be sitting in the government benches. Second, she must form a cohesive opposition consisting of mostly rookie MLA’s (including herself). Two of the Wildrose Party’s four incumbent MLA’s were defeated last night. Only MLA Heather Forsyth in Calgary-Fish Creek and Rob Anderson in Airdrie were re-elected.

The Wildrose caucus is almost entirely made up of MLA’s from southern rural Alberta constituencies, which breaks from the almost three decade-long tradition of urban-based Liberal or NDP official oppositions. This will be the first time since the Social Credit Party formed official opposition in 1971 that a large caucus of rural MLAs are the official opposition. Despite signs of a wave early in the campaign, the Wildrose Party only elected two MLA’s in Calgary, including Ms. Forsyth and Jeff Wilson, who defeated PC appointee candidate Farouk Adatia in Calgary-Shaw.

Raj Sherman Liberal Party leader Election 2012

Raj Sherman

It was a miracle that we survived” was Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman‘s comment on CBC Radio this morning. The Liberal Party elected five MLA’s last night, losing official opposition status for the first time in nineteen years. The Liberal vote collapsed across the province to 10% and the party lost long-time Liberal voting constituencies Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Riverview, and Calgary-Varsity to the Tories.

Former Liberal MLA Maurice Tougas may have said it best on his blog this morning, “Liberals will now have to ask themselves what their place is in Alberta politics, or indeed if there is any place for them at all.

The NDP probably have mixed feelings this morning. NDP leader Brian Mason ran a smooth campaign and his party has gained official party status by adding former MLA David Eggen from Edmonton-Calder and Deron Bilous from Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview to their caucus, but they are still one MLA smaller than the Liberals, who many New Democrats had hoped to surpass.

There are some pretty disappointed people in the Alberta Party camp this morning. Their hopes for electing an MLA were dashed, but the party earned 17,144 across the province, which leaves them with something to build on for the next election.

More to come…

57 thoughts on “the day after: alberta election analysis.

  1. Martin d'Entremont

    Dave, I heard Stephen Carter on the CBC Eyeopener this morning discussing strategy and what happened. He clearly stated that the mid to late campaign focus on individual Wildrose candidates suitability vs the PC candidate suitability played a major part in the PC success.

    He should have publicly thanked you for being the first to publicize it.

    Reply
  2. Jeff

    The next four years belong to the Alberta Party!

    The Wildrose went from zero to opposition in four years and the Alberta Party must use the next four years to establish itself as a new progressive option.

    Reply
  3. Kathryn Burke

    Good article, Dave. My son (15 years old) and I had a conversation last night about the Hunsperger / Leech issues. The question — If Smith had booted both as Wildrose Candidates as soon as the blog/”mis-spoken comments” surfaced, would she be Premier elect today? Our conclusion was yes. I think the polls may not have been wrong, but may have influenced the election. They were correct at the time and they were a tool or factor in the Wildrose defeat. The failure of Smith to repudiate Hunsperger and Leech fuelled concern that intolerant attitudes were more widespread amongst all WAP candidates. With the threat that WAP would form a majority government (as suggested by the polls), there was that backlash. I think that if Smith had removed both as candidates, she might have been the second female Premier of the province.

    Reply
  4. David

    Great analysis Dave – and what an incredible election night! From the moment the first results came trickling in you could see the Progressive Conservatives were far exceeding expectations…

    I had a stab at doing a riding-by-riding projection before the election based on the final polling figures – needless to say it missed the mark by a country mile! I think only ThreeHundredEight sensed the last-minute swing back to the PCs and even 308 called a narrow Wildrose win…

    I’ve also just stuck up a projection post-mortem for those who are interested in the numbers side of things… http://wp.me/p1B9j1-3R

    Reply
  5. Johanna MacKenzie

    Kathryn Burke: The Wildrose Party stands for freedom. That includes free votes and freedom of speech. If I want to have freedom to speak as I wish, I must also give that freedom to others — even if I disagree with them. If Danielle had ousted the preacher and Leech, the other parties would have
    questioned how much freedom Wildrose really has.

    Reply
  6. Tammy Maloney

    Can you do a poll that asks people if they voted strategically? Strange question I know, given last nights events. But so far I’ve only come across people who say they voted for the best candidate so it has me very curious.

    And I agree with Martin d’Entremont, well done on being the first to report on the suitability of Wildrose candidates.

    Reply
  7. Darcy

    There were fundamental differences between 2012 and 1971 that the PCs counted on. First, there has been a demographic shift to greater ethnic diversity, and towards a more educated middle class. These cohorts could have formed a stronger coalition on the right, but the right flank had already fallen prior to October 2011. The siren song to the traditional adversaries of the ATA, and social welfare advocates was well under way. I personally believed this to be a blunder; but apparently Alison knew better. Perhaps she reasoned that social policies like a strong education system and protection of society’s most vulnerable were simply good ideas that anyone of common sense could appreciate.

    The clear weakness signaled by the Liberal Party, indicated by their misfortune of electing a former PC as their leader (a product of the ridiculous idea of an open vote) likely sent scores of moderates adrift. These were the great wave of undecided, who held their nose as they voted PC, perhaps for the first time.

    The weakness of the WRP, I believe, was revealed in the first debate. Dani showed some very autocratic/ideological leanings, citing for example her clear allegiance with religious principles, her party before people, and platitudes before policy. Any and all common sense conservatives want more meat on the bone. I was personally shocked that most media outlets say she won that debate. About there quarters of the way through, it was clear that Alison was under her skin. She nearly broke.

    Now we have four years to witness the very best of the southern bible belt and Link Byfield. Their credibility will be declared MIA within 12 months.

    Reply
  8. Tom

    My take on why the polls were so off: “all politics is local politics.” Polls were far too focussed on how the leaders were being preceived with no consideration given to how voters actually make their decisions. Local issues and familiarity/satisfaction with incumbents will almost always rule the day. I happen to live in one constituency (Livingstone Macleod) that is a stunning exception to this principle. The WR candidate elected is a virtual ghost; no-show at forums and doesn’t live here. The incumbent PC defeated was a hardworking MLA and minister. I can only conclude the vapid, detail lacking platform put forward by WR was swallowed whole by thousands. That, and a long concentrated campaign of misinformation on property rights perpetrated by well funded liars. Having said that, I accept the results locally and recognize PC will need to work hard to re-engage the electorate and win back the seat next time. By the way, my “daveberta” prediction was 62 PC seats. Yes, I am absolutely bragging!

    Reply
  9. Tom

    Darcy: excellent observations. I hope everyone will remember there are “common sense conservatives” living in southern Alberta too. We were just outnumbered by those who don’t read, or only read the Sun (pretty much the same thing). We’re mortified to be represented this way, but wait until after four years of excellent governance under Alison Redford.
    I can’t wait to see how Danielle copes in the leg, if she shows up. Seems since her concession last night she’s entered the witness protection program.

    Reply
  10. c'mon seriously

    My take. Several factors led up to the big change.

    1. Organizational Strength of the PCs including bigger bank accounts, more volunteers and the ability to showcase local candidates and help “educate” the voters who don’t follow this stuff every day. Candidates were stronger – volunteers were stronger. Local campaigns were stronger.

    2. Danielle Smith. The biggest strength lost some luster as she hard-headidly stood by controversial candidates who had no chance of winning their local elections. A sacrificial lamb could have helped her cause. In addition, her musing about firewalls and lack of action to address climate change made her a bad choice to work with partners in confederation and also made her look unready for the national stage. We rely heavily on foreign investments for many jobs in Alberta and having a Premier who isn’t taken seriously would hurt us tremendously.

    3. Perhaps the most important. Despite what we say at coffee shops and dinner tables – we actually like Premier Redford and like her vision for the Province. She has the smarts of Lougheed and the abiltiy to admit mistakes and alter direction like Klien. This doesn’t make her a flip-flopper as the WRP labelled her – it makes her reactive to Albertans.

    Reply
  11. Ashok

    I believe the politician should be mature enough to understand the society at large.Any remarks made by party/candidates before the public goes far away. We are living in a progressive society with the sense of togetherness to build strong community and strong Nation.Any religious or racial remarks may hurt the progressive and social values and may throw wrong message.Politician speeches should be well thoughtand and I believe it certainly affect the outcome of any election.

    Reply
  12. CuJoYYC

    Best news from the election?

    Ted Morton lost! Sadly, he lost to a WRP (Wingnut Revenge Party) candidate rather than a more sensible alternative but he did, in fact, lose. 🙂

    Oh, and notwithstanding the collapse of the Liberal vote (strategic voting perhaps), the Calgary and Edmonton Liberal caucuses are larger than the Calgary and Edmonton WRP caucus. That has to sting a lot for Smith, Flanagan et al.

    Reply
  13. Concerned Albertan

    Pushing through the electrical transmission line when a full debate was promised is hardly “reactive to Albertans.” Bulldozing ahead with more of the desired agenda, as per usual, is more like it…

    It will be interesting to see if that kind of tactic continues, as, with few exceptions, I believe it will be. Only time will tell. But my eye will be on healthcare/privatization, continued break-neck exploitation of the tar sands, and the sale of Alberta water over the next 8 to 10 years. What happens with THOSE 3 issues, in particular, will tell the true tale of whether Alberta has truly “changed.”

    Duane Bratt is speaking on CBC right now saying he thinks Alberta has “fundamentally changed.” My belief is that he couldn’t be more wrong about that. Same old, same old fence……. With a new coat of bright and shiny paint!

    Reply
  14. Ryan

    Your provided a lot more balanced reporting then some of the major media outlets (especially Sun News). You got your predictions wrong, but in fairness so did everyone.

    Reply
  15. carla

    Last night, the Tories stated that their polls showed that they were going to win but they did not release those polls to the public. Do you think they kept those poll results quiet because they did not want to weaken the strategic vote movement? Brilliant move Tories. There are probably many former Liberal and NDP voters wondering today how they got so duped into helping bring in another crushing Tory majority.

    Reply
  16. ScienceOfficerSpock

    I, too, was misled by all those polls. However, I was right about one thing – the strong showing by Dave Hancock in his riding. Not sure, but I think he won by the widest margin of any PC elected this time.

    Reply
  17. ActivABCitizen

    What role did strategic voting play in this election? (Though a more useful polling question would be “in this election, did you vote for your first, second or third choice?” it might also be useful to ask whether or not the respondents voted in the 2008 prov. Election.). I think that it clearly played a significant role in the increased vote for the PCs and some of the seats won by the nds and libs. How sweet it was to hear ex mla tony vandermeer of edmonton Beverly clairview complain loudly that the wild rose had split the conservative vote helping NDP Darren bilous get elected.

    By the way, note that changealberta.ca was correct in its recommendations for strategic voting in 39 of the select 42 ridings. Also, of course, CHANGEALBERTA.ca helped to moderate the push to vote strategically for the PCs.

    Reply
  18. Evone

    Appreciate your comments Tom – same where i live. who can fathom voters – the least competent candidate in the forum here was the one that got in – a wildrose dude with NO experience, who bumbled his way through his cheat sheet during the forum. On the other hand, the three candidates that were so knowledgeable and obviously dedicated and honorable, got the least votes. The PC got not quite as many as the wildrose. But this is not unusal in Lacombe-Ponoka riding – they seem to vote in the least competent person every election. Prins, who saw nothing wrong with keeping $1500 a month for doing nothing, was the last PC guy here. Not sure what motivates people here to vote the way they do. It is so goofy it is almost hilarious.

    Reply
  19. Rene

    Likewise, the least competent candidate in Edmonton Riverview was winning candidate Steve Young. He was only proclaimed days before the writ was dropped.

    Full bodied paint of his upper body appeared on 2 vehicles and he also had 2 bill boards. What he didn’t have was many volunteers, signs, or poll drops, and no public image or political experience. His debating and door skills were not as engaging as the other 3 candidates.

    So…what was the winning factor in the election?

    A heavy PC war chest and a mighty political propoganda machine that played on the emotions of Albertans. Now where ever did Danielle Smith mention removal of the RCMP ? It was a PC MLA Ted Morton suggestion.

    They played to emotions and the viral video –well you could classify that as facism, put your values on the shelf and voting to save the province.

    At the polls, many voters did not know Steve Youngs name, they just knew the PC Party. And that is how the least compotent of candidates in Edmonton Riverview won the provincial election.

    Reply
  20. Gordon

    Should the two pastors have been removed (or better yet their nominations not been approved in the first place)? The answer depends on how much value you place on freedom of speech – not just the freedom to speak in a manner and with the opinions that you, yourself, have determined as being “right and proper”. True freedom of speech allows for all opinions – even if they disagree with yours. If their opinions are far off those of society – they simply will not get anywhere in politics nor will they be taken seriously other than in their own little community. The suckers in all of this are the voters who fell for the PCs/the medias’ incessant hammering on this issue and applied it right across the province when it was really only the business of the two pastors’ ridings. To many voters fell big time for the PC “boogie man” attack ads. Now watch the Human Rights Commissions/Tribunals further erode freedom of speech and allow only what is considered proper by the ruling elite class, who of course, know what is best. Then look in the mirror and feel proud that you contributed to the Redford Progressive win.

    Reply
  21. Jon A

    Wow, forget petroleum: you could turn vineyards into Alberta’s number one resource just by using the sour grapes coming from WR supporters.

    Reply
  22. UnkindAtheist

    Really Gordon? You are confusing the respect of Albertans for your right to believe whatever you want with respect for what you believe. You might also consider that many Albertans believe in “separation of Church and state” and when a person’s belief begets hateful speech – it should be stricken.

    Reply
  23. Rural gal

    I am very disappointed at Darcy’s comments- he assumes that southern Alberta are bible thumpers. I suspect that the MLA of al parties attend their place of worship without being disrespected. It is truly a.bigoted statement Tom is also making excuses for the losses in Livingston Macleod and in fact, the WR candidate was at many debates. Seems the people did not want Berger. Rather than disrespecting the people who voted for him, we should respect the people vote. Blythe way, we , insouthernalbeerta can read just fine.
    We are just as educated aand weLl read .
    If there was misinformation about the land bill meetings, the govt were at fault for what they wrote. Unfortunately land owners can read!
    I think Jon – you know this is a province for all Albertans even those who disagree with you.
    Polls are wrong cause they do not phone cell phones. But the Alberta Federation of Labor had mine- where did they get it? Never have associated with them, but there was a call and certainly if you answered WR, the po pushed.
    The PC have a big election machine, and it works. Many more data bases, volunteers, a war chest, etc, etc.
    There was a media bias ( except the sun), but certainly the eastern and provincial media did not show balance. Heard for three days about leech and huntsverger, but not Rasheed nor Morton ( block of gay rites). Tom Olsen with his despicable counting of white faces- he would have had a better ethnic count if he had counted names- but those just did not make headlines for three days.
    Danielle did not getdirty- she actually thought you could run on issues,but the smears never stopped. Yes she probably should have thrown a couple of the candidates out, but she left that to to the voters. Alison did not throw out Rasheed, nor did she fire Olsen. And the difference is?
    Important to realize that 34% of Albertans voted for WR. I hope that Alison is going to be premier to all Albertans after promising to disenfranchise many as she indicated that she would not work with WR. Democracy is messy, but I hope not I convent. Time will tell

    Reply
  24. Rural gal

    Sorry my fingers got carried away
    I meant. Democracy is messy, but I hope not inconvenient
    Loved the posts and the comments dave

    Reply
  25. Terese

    Just before the election results started rolling, on my facebook I posted that I thought the PCs would win. Why? Because the media constantely told us that Calgary held the power in who would be elected. No one I knew was voting Wildrose. I polled my friends and asked them to poll their freinds and no one knew anyone that was voting for the Wildrose. It made sense to me… I could not see a Calgary that voted in Nenshi could be a Calgary that would vote in Danielle Smith. What did the politicains and pundits think had happened to us hip centrists? That we had suddenly vanished? Nope we were all on our cell phones texting each other to join a facebook group called “Dont vote Wildrose”, which was gathering 1000 members a day, while pollsters stuck to outmoded landlines to poll the staid and the cobwebbed. This election outcome was no surprise to us, the great unwashed and unpolled masses of cel phone carriers who eschew landlines.

    Reply
  26. Average Alberta

    It is weird that Danielle Smith ran on a very similar fiscal platform to that of Lawrence Decore in 1993, yet Liberals were scared this time….oh Liberals, if you would have avoided the whole strategic vote you would have held the balance of power….

    Reply
  27. The Spectator

    Two main lessons from this election campaign:

    1. Alberta’s journalists would have fit in well in Moscow in the 1920s.

    2. Self interest is the only thing that lures most Albertans to the polls.

    Reply
  28. Michael Dawe

    I was at the forefront of the election here in Red Deer, Alberta, a part of the province which quite frankly a lot of the posters to this discussion know very little about.
    Yes, there was a last minute switch back to the P.C.’s on the last weekend by people afraid of the Wildrose. We noticed it in our canvassing.
    Yes, in the parts of Central Alberta outside the City of Red Deer, the deep anger against the P.C.
    continued and the ridings all went WildRose.
    Despite, some really good local candidates, the Alberta Party did not resonate at all. Maybe those active in the organization know what the Party is all about, but the general public certainly didn’t get it.
    And no, Raj Sherman was not considered a “joke” or an “incompetant” here. Lots of people liked him or at least respected him for standing up for what he believed in. The biggest problem for the Liberals was starting with very little organization. That collapse of the nuts and bolts of the organization happened long before Sherman and Redford were elected leaders of their respective parties. A lot happened when a number of talented, well meaning people decided to try the Alberta Party experiment (see above).
    Now we will have to see if Redford can really pull her party to the centre left where she sits, and can overcome the inertia of decades of entitlement and “we know best”. Certainly the crowing of many of them that “we pulled off another one of our miracles” does not bode well for a true reform of the Party.

    Reply
  29. Brandon

    Will the New Wildrose MLAs take an immediate 30% paycut? Or will it be more of read my lips but watch my actions.

    Reply
  30. Edmonton Girl

    I heard an interview on CBC radio with Premier Redford today. She stated (and I paraphrase)that the tide turned for the Tories after the debate (and I assume that she means that she wooed many voters as a result of her debate performance) and that the strategic vote did not play any role in the election outcome. Really Premier Redford? While no one will truly know to what extent the strategic vote played in the Tory majority, I think we all know that it played some role. The fact that Premier Redford won’t acknowledge that, but rather is attributing the outcome to her performance during the debate, does not bode well for her promise that we are going to see a new PC party. It seems to me that, just one day after the election, we still have the same arrogant and self-entitled PC party. (P.S. to Jon A : I am not a Wildrose supporter.)

    Reply
  31. Chris P.

    So if the Liberal vote is just going to collapse to the PCs anytime there is an assault on the right flank, I’m not sure having a Liberal party is necessary.

    The Liberals need to either:
    a) work on winning enough seats to form the balance of power in a right wing vote-splitting (i.e. PC minority) scenario. or,
    b) just have centrist liberals dissolve into the PC “big tent” and the leftist liberals be absorbed into the NDP.

    I think if this election has taught us anything, it’s that the PCs have (by hook or by crook) monopolized the centre of the political spectrum (and its voters). The best option for a “strong opposition” is to have clear alternatives to the right and left; fighting over the middle hasn’t worked for the Liberals, and I can’t see it working for the Alberta Party or anyone else, either.

    Reply
  32. RobC

    I think of a couple of key things that were a huge factor. One was that Alison appealed to the unions again just like she did in the leadership campaign.
    There were huge volumes of emails going around to the Health Services Union members and also the teachers union members. They were being told they were going to lose their jobs if the Wildrose got in. An xray technician showed an email from the union stating that. Last election it was that municipalities would get no funding if they did not vote PC. So the fearmongering was effective. Also she swayed votes with things like $500 teacher credits. I do believe the 2 WR candidates hurt the chances, but is Ted Morton exempt. I also find it ironic that in a hypocritical way the PC’s complained about the negative tone, when they were the first to gripe about Danielle and continue it on through the campaign. I also will be interested to see if the Premier will work with the opposition who the PEOPLE of ALBERTA elected, or will disregard them like she said -that “I can’t work with the Wildrose” I also hope she remembers this mandate she has only represents 44% of those who voted and if you add up the rest of the votes not for the PC’s there were more. A great deal of albertan’s do not support the direction the government is going, and it is obvious the rural people are in that group. Do they expect everything their way? No, but they do want to be respected, and even since being elected it is almost as if there is a attitude of resentment for people daring to speak out. It will lastly be interesting to see where all the additional unbudget monies will come from, considering that was what they originally promised to run on, and it hardly ever came up.

    If there was some recognition of peoples concerns I think that things would look very positive for the PC’s in 4 years. But as long as those concerns are not addressed and disregarded then there will be continued anger to the government.
    Perhaps the goal of the government is to have the cities be Progressive and the Rural areas be conservative. Certainly not a united province in this government at this point. I truly hope they understand the angst and do something to reach out to people with differing views and be inclusive and diverse like they profess, otherwise it is a recipe for contention and cynicism. Not meaning to be harsh, but there is real concern that cannot be disregarded just as sour grapes or whining. Those who would do so are guilty of what they say others are doing. Sorry for any offence, being honest is the best way to move forward.

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  33. Jonathan

    I like how unions are described as enormous greedy unstoppable monolithic tide-turners. Meanwhile, corporations didn’t have a stake in this election at all. Not one bit. Do they still exist?

    On an unrelated note, SunMedia had 12,019 positive mentions of the WRP in 28 days. #sheesh

    Reply
  34. RobC

    I think the point about the unions of note is that they have always been left leaning and usually support the NDP. But twice now Alison has used them to carry the vote her way. Not typical conservative behavior. It is a true fact as I saw the email personally to the HSAA. But with 90,000 people yes the unions can be tide turners, especially if some are told incorrectly they will lose their jobs by voting a certain way. As for corporations, the just released figures show the PC Party with far more corporate donations than any party.

    Reply
  35. Jonathan

    I’m in the public service. If Premier Danielle was willing to pay $500M to reclaim City Centre Airport land (as she told David Staples), would I still have a job?

    BTW SunMedia (thanks, Lorne Gunter) took great pride in calling A Redford “Nanny Redford”, a ridiculous insinuation that Alberta is somehow a “Nanny State”. (As long as we’re talking hysteria) I’m not even close to a PC supporter, but it was pretty plain to see that Edmonton would lose the Museum, LRT funding and have to deal with airport wounds all over again. It was also terribly unappealing to think of Smith learning how to be an MLA and premier at the same time. The WRP fiscal policy had no traction in Edmonton whatsoever.

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  36. RobC

    I don’t disagree with the concern that WR was lagging in Edmonton. It appears they were staking the win on Rural and Calgary. My concerns is that the PC’s think they have this MANDATE and the reality is they almost lost the government over it, and the only reason they did not was they scared the electorate into voting for them over WR. It was not fought on issues. At least the NDP and Libs had some platforms and fought on them. (other than Raj going off for a brief moment.) Just wish the PC’s would ditch the arrogance and actually listen to the people. But as Alison said, it is not about ideology. She said if elected it is there job to lead and then account for it in 4 years. The great loss is representation of the people and from the people to work to a common good, rather than by a select few who feel they know best.

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  37. Brian Dell

    The natural gas revenue that drove spending prior to 2009 is not coming back. That means sooner or later the Sustainability Fund is doing to be dry and with Redford it is going to be sooner. And then what? You got your Museum Jonathan but you don’t have a job because even Redford is eventually forced to cut back?

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  38. bartinsky

    We in the south of Alberta lost 3 hard working MLA’s, Morton Doerkson and Berger, through the dirty contortions of a sub-successful lawyer, his puppet masters in the WRP, and unread huge lease land holders, they ran a successful stampede, of the entitled to titles. The land holders get huge subsidies through cheap grazing rates and exploration and mineral extraction , this is an annual windfall to most of them, and any changes to land use, “made them mad”, they didn’t or couldn’t read the bills to see it changed very little, they will got more compensation for land use, and better representation in the courts, but for a lot of those people, that was like grade 5, hard to understand. We have one large lease land holder in southern Alberta who has around 400 wells on his lease land, he has the hardship of toting those cheques to the bank every year, He needs government assistance for that to I’m sure.

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  39. Mdentremont

    Im sorry but what about the Wildrose’s “less government” ideology did public sector union members not understand and translate into votes against Wildrose?

    Do I have to mention yet again, and vainly, that the principled Ms. Smith turned her back on her Calgary Herald colleagues and crossed the picket-line to scab on behalf of Connie Black? One can only wonder about the progressive labour legislation we could have expected from a Wildrose majority.

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  40. Terese

    It is Ron Hinman today who is accusing the PC’s of a “fear and smear” campaigne by the Tories.

    Excuse me? What province do you live in Hinman? I heard Alsion Redford say once that she was frightened about the type of Alberta where people would die in lakes of fire.

    The Wildrose feared and smeared themselves as Smith mentioned post election about the Wildrose’s self inflicted wounds. American style BS coming out of your mouth is not what we need here. So glad this guy lost his seat, but still happy to have healthy opposition in the legislature.

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  41. Jonathan

    @Brian

    Is oil revenue not set to spike next year due to royalties coming on line? I’m not justifying the PCs spending – 2 billion for carbon capture is ridiculous. I don’t really care for this government much at all, but I trust them more than a haphazard austerity budget brought by a woman who’d be a rookie MLA and premier at the same time.
    WRP was convinced that their polling showed great voter approval of their fiscal approach, but Monday night proved that was not a priority for voters.

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  42. Rural gal

    Bartinsky: if Keith Wilson was saying anything not right. On land bills, why did the govt not sue him to stop? Maybe because he was right, please stop yelling about landowners and grazing lease holders getting big cheques. They Psy to hold those leases,t
    And there is a myriad of stewardship regulations that they must do – like fire suppression, weed control ( usually brought onto property by recreational its, they fence, they manage the grasslands thru grazing ( look at conservation areas that are not grazed- it is a mess- grass needs to be grazed, so the lease holder deaf to is maintaining the grasslands like the herds of buffalo and bison in the past), they also provide management for biodiversity. Anytime you want to contribute, I have a position on my fencing crew- just takes about 20 days and only 33 miles of internal and external fencing checks. Oh and it is inaccessible by road, so hope you can walk uphill or ride a horse

    So please know your facts

    With regard to land bills or pipelines or national energy strategy, please go read the website for Canadian Energy Strategy. That will get your. Heart racing!

    And then maybe you can read about Potatogate – public land sold to large japanese firm. Wonder why there was an outcry from braziers? Think it was about the biodiversity of the
    L- such as how not to plw under the burrowing owl? How to maintain antelope terrain. Let us than
    A hundred years of ranching for the landscapes in Alberta, and when you eat tonite, say thanks to a farmer. The one you call dumb just provided your dinner

    Nuffield said

    Let us go build Alberta together. We can diverse opinions.
    And thank goodness for that. I do know of a country that has groupthink – you wouldn’t
    Not be happy there.

    Reply
  43. bartinsky

    rural gal; I have my own beef in the freezer, just sold the last of my oats, yea I kind of know the drill. Your favorite bulls….ing lawyer has the dubious distinction of being fired from a big law firm, guess he need a job, well, thanks for your great farsightedness. Oh and by the way, what part of that big tract of land you have to fence, did YOU buy, and what did Grandpa or other ancestors provide?

    Reply
  44. Rural gal

    I bought it.
    Actually he did not need a job – he was asked by the law society to write a summary of the new land bills cause of his expertise. The law society does this whenever new legislation appears
    He just could not believe what he was reading.

    And although I bought and own my own land, many of my friends are braziers. And what is your point about land being handed down- Are you not glad that those many visionaries kept the beautiful landscape of Alberta.
    Besides who else would care for it? The latte crowd? The recreationist? The govt ( go see some non grazed land) ? You? Public land does come up for sale and you can buy it. Or leases go up for sale- you could compete for that too!

    I have not figured out your problem with land- there is some beautiful ranches for sale right now and some large blocks of lease land up for grabs. Are you looking at those opportunities?

    Reply
  45. Michael Dawe

    Is it just me, or are others starting to find some of the post-election “analysis” as bordering on the painful ? I have been listening a lot to CBC Calgary. I am really struck by the number of pundits and pollsters who have been reduced to claiming that they were “not as wrong as the other guys”. I wouldn’t find that very impressive on a resume.
    I think it is time that a lot of them admit that there polling was flawed and that a lot of their “insights” into Alberta politics were pretty shallow. Alberta is obviously a lot more diverse and complicated than they have been telling the public. Maybe a number of the them need to spend some time getting to know our province better, instead of making excuses to the media.

    Reply
  46. UnkindAtheist

    @RuralGal – If you could please post a picture of yourself I know hundreds of thousands of Albertans would appreciate it because it could put a real face to what it was that a majority of Albertans voted against. Photo or not, I look forward to your posts about the war on Christmas.

    Reply
  47. bartinsky

    Athiest; you might not like it; the type of voter, and deep thinkers who went WRP are the same type of thinkers that live in deepest darkest Africa, you know the stories you hear on the news time to time where the village Shaman tells the uneducated villagers that black haired, white and brown eyed people are devils and need to hunted down and killed, and before they realize their folly 400 villagers are dead and the last one standing looks in a mirror and sees his own hair is black and eyes are white and brown. This was another lesson to the Gordon Kessler type thinkers here, what did you entitled to your entitlements type Albertans gain by voting out all the sitting MLA’s here in the south, your short sightedness will serve you well when you have a problem and have to phone Fat Steir for help, Good luck morons.

    Reply
  48. Rene

    @Chris P.

    Not all Liberals fell for the Alison Redford spiel of saving Alberta, however some did and so did NDP and so did Wildrose supporters fearful of the Firewall which fell flat when Stephen Harper tried it.

    I can not believe Alison Redford became the saviour for goodness sake the PC party needs to be taken out and I don’t care if the Dalia Lama leads it.

    Liberals won the highest of centrist left votes–so why should they disolve?

    Reply
  49. Dano B

    Jack Hayden was a real loss to the PC’s.He was a quality representative and is a gracious and intelligent man. He could have made a good Premier.

    Reply
  50. Rural gal

    I find that when you reduce arguments to name calling and unreasonable dialogue, it says more about you than me.
    I want what is best for Albertans ( all Albertans), and I have based my votes and discussions on reading from many sources, and diversity of people. Interestingly, I suspect’ my range of contacts with folks is very large and diverse compared to most.
    So although I will not post a picture, I will continue to try and be reasonable and try and understand other ‘s rational thoughts. That is what is fun about diversity- a diversity of opinions often leads to much better compromises and solutions.
    So agree or disagree me, I will question your opinions, but I will not disrespect them.

    Reply
  51. UnkindAtheist

    Well – I call bullshit. “Not disrespect them” This latte drinker recognizes group distinction and disrespect when he reads it. And I read it first in a Rick Bell column which makes you a liar and unoriginal. And likely a Christian. Nice talk about diversity though…quick question….does your Heaven include some happy Muslims? Latte drinking Jews perhaps? Yah. I thought not. By the way – I have suspicions about your range of contacts as well…

    Reply

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