predicting alberta’s election results.

We have received more than 100 entries for the joint Daveberta and CalgaryGrit Great Alberta Election pool and have entered these predictions into a state of the art spreadsheet to discover some interesting predictions for tomorrow’s vote.

Alberta Election Pool Seat Count Prediction Averages

Alberta election pool seat count prediction: Averages (from CalgaryGrit.ca)

The average of the seat count predictions would see Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Party form a minority government with 42 of the 87 seats in the Assembly. The Progressive Conservatives would hold on to 37 (down from 72 in the 2008 election), the NDP would become the third largest party in the Assembly with 4 MLAs, and the Liberals would drop from 9 to 3 MLAs.

The average seat count prediction shows the Alberta Party electing one MLA, but the averages response to the question predicting that party’s best results in a constituency is 22%.

Who will be re-elected?

Most entrants predict that PC MLA Ted Morton will be defeated in Chestermere-Rockyview and that Premier Alison Redford will be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow. The entires were split on predicting whether Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman would be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark.

MLA Hunsperger and Leech?

The entries also showed a signifiant split in predicting whether controversial Wildrose Party candidates Allan Hunsperger and Ron Leech would be elected tomorrow.

Edmonton-Glenora

More than 50% of entries predict that PC MLA Heather Klimchuk will be re-elected in hotly contested Edmonton-Glenora campaign. Predicting her opponents chances of winning, 21% chose NDP candidate Ray Martin, 17% chose Alberta Party candidate Sue Huff, 8% chose former Liberal MLA Bruce Miller, and 3% chose Wildrose candidate Don Koziak.

Highest Tory votes

Battle River-Wainwright (represented by PC MLA Doug Griffiths), Edmonton-Whitemud (represented by PC MLA Dave Hancock), Edmonton-South West, Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills (represented by PC MLA Ray Danyluk), Spruce Grove-St. Albert (represented by PC MLA Doug Horner), and Strathcona-Sherwood Park (represented by PC MLA Dave Quest) were the constituencies predicted to have the highest PC vote on election day.

The pool is still open for new participants until the polls open at 9:00 a.m. tomorrow.

12 thoughts on “predicting alberta’s election results.

  1. Herbert B. Patrotage

    Pastors Leech and Hunsperger have Charter-protected freedom of speech and religion; similarly, it is my constitutional right to consider them wingnuts unfit for public office. As for the other 85 Wildrose candidates, I am pleased to predict that Albertans will elect most of them on Monday, turfing a Putrefied Corrupted government over a decade past its best-before date. Indeed, the Globe and Mail now reports that the most recent poll, conducted by Forum Research, would put the Wildrose at 62 seats. Hopefully voters won’t heed foolish advice to hold their noses and vote PC, or we will have fewer centre-left (Lib/ND/Alberta) party MLAs — we have too few already.

    Reply
  2. Lou Arab

    As a dipper, I find today’s Forum poll very encouraging, especially the Edmonton results:

    I find today’s Forum Poll very encouraging:

    Wildrose: 41
    PC: 32
    NDP: 13
    Lib: 10
    AB Party: 2

    Edmonton

    Wildrose: 30
    PC: 31
    NDP: 23
    Lib: 14
    AB Party: 1

    It also shows that NDP at 15% in Southern Alberta, good news for Lethbridge West I expect.

    The NDP vote from 2008 is holding far better than the Liberals and Tories.

    Reply
  3. Rural gal

    I like the summary you gave Dave. I think there are some pretty astute persons that blog on your site, and probably have a pretty good sense of the “coiffed shop, water cooler and curling rink” talk.
    Thanks for your posts and hope I win contest!

    I have predicted a WR majority with the 2 controversial people losing, and also the controversial PC candidates ( Rasheed- racial comments, school principal gal that was using school resources and under ethics review, along with Ted moton) losing.

    Think that the mix will be good for Alberta, and I am sure the Libs and nds will be also interested in casting sunshine on some of the rot. But I also think that there are some blue Tories that will be elected and probably relieved to be working for a more moderate Premier

    Reply
  4. David Christopher

    I had a stab at doing a district-by-district projection model – it points to a solid majority for Wildrose. My model projects Wildrose to win 55 seats, the PCs 27, the NDP 4 and Liberals 1.

    I’m looking forward to seeing how my projection compares with reality on Monday night!

    Full details on my blog here if anyone’s interested – http://wp.me/p1B9j1-3H

    Reply
  5. Janes

    Number of MLAs elected by each party (total: 87 MLAs)

    Alberta Party:2
    Liberal:1
    NDP:4
    PC:40
    Wildrose:40
    Other:

    *I am curious to know what the outcome would be if this were to actually happen??

    Bonus Question

    1. The constituency where the PC candidate will earn their highest percentage of the popular vote:
    Battle River-Wainwright (Doug Griffiths)

    2. Will PC MLA Ted Morton be re-elected in Chestermere-Rockyview?
    NO

    3. Will Premier Alison Redford be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow?
    YES

    4. Will Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark?
    YES

    5. What will the highest vote percentage for the Alberta Party be in a riding?
    38

    6. Will either Allan Hunsperger (“gays burn in hell”) or Ron Leech (“being white is an advantage”) win their seat?
    NO

    7. Who will be elected in Edmonton-Glenora?
    Sue Huff

    8. Which party leaders will announce plans to resign within 48 hours of the vote?
    Glenn Taylor

    9. How many of the 3 senate positions will the Wildrose Party win?
    1

    10. Who will get more votes – Liberals or NDP?
    NDP

    Reply
  6. David Stinson

    Prediction: In spite of Wildrose’s late bad press.
    Wildrose – 47
    PC – 26
    NDP – 10
    Liberal – 3
    Ab Party – 1

    Reply
  7. Joe Calgary

    I’m looking at the latest riding by riding polls, and the Wildrose would appear to have 38 wrapped up, and they need six more to win a majority.

    Tight races to watch:

    1)Barhead, Morinville, Westlocke
    2)Battle River/Wainwright
    3)BonnyVille/Cold Lake
    4)Calgary Mountain View
    5)Edmonton Beverly Clareview
    6)Edmonton Calder
    7)Edmonton Center
    8)Innisfail Sylvan Lake
    10)La La Biche St. Paul
    11) Lethbridge West
    12) Medicine Hat
    13) Peace River
    14) Vermillion Loyldminister

    Going to be hard… hockey, election, hockey, election. Luckily they’ll declare a winner on most stations within the first 30 seconds based on a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percentage of polling returns, and we can all say goodnight.

    Reply
  8. Raj

    Alison Redford can NOT get back in! She propose to steel our property! Better think twice before voting Hitler in? Think about it Alberta, how do you think Hitler started, one step at a time, and it is happening! Try to take my property or my land away and there will be hell to pay Miss Redneck!

    Reply
  9. Greg

    guess your polls and prediction are just not that good!!.. when it comes down to it, people like me made sure I voted this time to keep thorny wild rose from gaining the reins..the bigotry and religious zeolotry has to be eliminated from WR before anyone with an education will ever vote for them.. Alberta has changed and you didn’t even see it coming.. the only WR elected candidates were in the rural, lowly educated centres..says something about the electorate and how Alberta is now dominated by the cities.. If I were Alison Redford.. I would move immediately to re draw the electoral maps to give more power and seats to the cities and end the disparity in electoral strength that kept the tories in power for so long. this will ensure that the WR will not get in..

    Reply
  10. Tom

    Dear Joe Calgary & Herbert B. Patrotage: If you review predictions you’ll see I called 62 PC seats. Not bad huh? How close were you? Maybe this will teach you guys to stop swallowing polls!

    Reply

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