wildrose challenges tories province-wide and liberals in edmonton.

A new survey reported by the Calgary Herald:

The survey by Environics Research Group, provided exclusively to the Calgary Herald, indicates 34 per cent of decided voters would support Ed Stelmach’s Tory party if an election were held today.

Thirty-two per cent would cast a ballot for Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Alliance, meaning the figures are within the survey’s margin of error. The poll of 1,011 Albertans, conducted between Nov. 22 and Dec. 2, shows the Liberals under David Swann have seen their support slip slightly to 19 per cent, while Brian Mason’s NDP sit at 13 per cent.

The number of undecided voters is 17 per cent.

After a very rough month of fumbling the healthcare file, the Progressive Conservatives have dropped to 34%, down six points from an internal PC Party poll taken in October 2010 and released at that party’s recent policy conference. This is a far cry from March 2008, when the PCs swept 53% of the province-wide vote. Another recent survey showed that only 21% of Albertans approved of Premier Ed Stelmach‘s performance, possibly hurting his party’s support as reflected in this survey.

The Wildrose Alliance should be pleased with these numbers, which show them growing their support back above 30% and putting some distance between themselves and the third place Liberals. These survey numbers will likely help boost the spirits of the 26 already nominated Wildrose candidates as they campaign door to door in an increasingly cold winter. The survey continues a year-long trend showing that the Wildrose have been able to solidify their position as an Official Opposition-in-waiting among Alberta voters.

The article also says that the Wildrose are tied with the Liberals for second place in Edmonton, which should be troubling for the Liberals, who are hoping for that conservative party to grab enough votes away from the PCs in Edmonton to regain some constituencies they lost in the last election. Since December 2009, the Liberals have been unable to break away from their third place position after at least fifteen years of second place polling.

Depending on the margin of error, the NDP have either held or mildly grown their province-wide support.

Early in its organizing phase, the new Alberta Party has yet to register on any major survey, which may be a result of it not being an option or that it is just not yet registering among Albertans. Regardless, it shows how much hard work still needs to be done by that new party’s organizers to reach out beyond the people they have already engaged. That party is in the process of establishing Constituency Associations and will have thirty founded by the end of this month.

If anything, this survey shows how fluid political support in Alberta has become as we approach the next provincial election in either 2011 or 2012. Here are this month’s survey results along with others released over the past two Decembers:

December 2010 (Environics)

PC: 34%
WA: 32%
Liberal: 19%
NDP: 13%
Other: 2% (assumed)

December 2009 (Angus Reid)
WA: 39%
PC: 25%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 9%
Other: 2%

December 2008 (Environics)
PC: 62%
Liberal: 16%
Other: 14%
NDP: 6%
WA: 3%

24 thoughts on “wildrose challenges tories province-wide and liberals in edmonton.

  1. Flintstone Astair

    The Alberta Party can’t register in support, and that’s the real tragedy of it’s existence.

    Strong enough to hurt the Liberals (imagine if all those organizers were helping the Grits?), nowhere near relevant enough to be an option themselves.

    Reply
  2. Darren L

    Rather misleading title. By the numbers shown, the PC’s have significantly increased their support since last year. Doesn’t surprise me given how backward most of the Wildrose Alliance’s policies are. Surprised the Alberta Party didn’t pick anything up.

    Reply
  3. Lou Arab

    The margin of error is +/- 3.1%. The NDP support has risen by 7% since December 2008, which is certainly outside of the margin of error.

    In fact, the NDP has climbed in every Environics poll since then.

    Reply
  4. daveberta Post author

    Darren L: The PCs were sitting at 34% in Environics surveys taken in March and May 2010. The Wildrose dropped to 30% and 28% in both those surveys, meaning that the WAP are challenging the PCs province-wide in this survey.

    Reply
  5. dave

    Amecar, what makes the PC Party corrupt? I support them and I am proud to support them, and I will vot for them in the next election. I think your claim of corruption is slightly exaggerated. Perhaps you’d care to back up your comment?

    Reply
  6. Amecer

    Running a campaign disguised as a “Ministers Tour” in the spring at tax payers expense to “listen to the people” is one example of corruption Dave. When pressed to get the details on where and when they would be doing this, the answer directly from Thomas Lukasiks office was, and I quote, “information on venues and times is not public information”. That’s one example, another would be the trashing of one of their own because he chose to tell the truth (Dr. Sherman)

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  7. dave

    Ah yes, insults, that is a very mature way to disagree with someone Kevin S. well done.

    So Amecer, you are opposed to having a government that listens? Well that is definitely an interesting opinion to have, but I think you may be in the minority on that one. As for Dr, Sherman, what exactly do you base your argument on for him being turfed because he chose to tell the truth? The media reports? You do realize the purpose of media is to generate revenue,correct? Therefore what reason do reporters have to be accurate as opposed to exciting? Dr. Sherman is a good guy, very likable, however politics is a team sport. He didn’t get tat.

    As for Kevin S, my head is jut fine thank you. In fact, I greatly enjoy living in the best province in the Country.

    Reply
  8. Broken Winged Swann

    The telling component of this poll is the illustration of how absolutely incapable the Libs are of gaining momentum from what amounts to a gift-wrapped opportunity. Come on, guys. The recent topic du jour is sexy, it’s polarizing, and your leader is uniquely able to relate to it personally from a professional standpoint…and yet you still suck.

    The really interesting component of this whole exercise is watching a party which understands politics (WRA) facing off against a party which is sincere but clueless (the Libs).

    Also interesting is the illiterate commentary from the troglodytes. Head injury? Minister’s tour as evidence of a grand conspiracy? That’s some nice analysis, gentlemen. With that kind of talent, you should be writing columns on NASCAR.

    Reply
  9. Kevin S

    Hey Swann, what next you going to hit me with a “I know you are but what am I”? Or a “I’m rubber and you’re glue, whatever you say bounces off me and sticks to you”? It’s so nice that you’re so superior to the rest of us. Should we all worship you and your vast knowledge of the world? Ppppfffttt! You probably pump gas for a living so run along and make sure you do the windows buddy.

    Reply
  10. Will Munsey

    I wonder what is wrong with “pumping gas for a living.”

    Anything done honestly to “make a living” is worth more (much more) respect than that.

    More respect and cooperation… and less fewer glib insults toward those we don’t always agree with is really one of the things missing in Alberta. Because we do it ourselves, we tacitly allow those in leadership to get away with it.

    Before anything changes in politics, that has to change… and we all have to decide to change it ourselves… and accept no less from elected officials.

    Reply
  11. Kevin S

    I agree Will, look back this guy is the master of glib insults. It just makes me sick that he feels his opinion is much more valid than anyone elses.

    Reply
  12. Amecer

    Dave, They would not give out the information to the general public, so they aren’t listening. They were hand picking those in attendance to put on a two bit dog and pony show for the cameras. There was no ligitimacy to that tour what so ever. They sold as a way to listen to the public, but the public wasn’t invited, how does that equate to what they sold it as?

    As far as politics being a team sport goes, the only team your MLA is supposed to be on is the people that they represent. Dr sherman is only guilty of doing what the people that he represents expect from him and in the PC party apparently that is a crime. If that’s a crime then they have a twisted sense of repsponsibility but then again we already knew that. It’s all about them (34% raise in 2008 as one example) and to hell with the people.

    Reply
  13. dave

    Amecar, you couldn’t be more wrong. I attended a public event in Lethbridge as part of the Minister’s tour. The MLA sent out an invite and there were people from all stripes there, so don’t tell me the public wasn’t invited, that is just inaccurate. Second, 3-4 years ago the Liberal party used taxpayer funds to paint a small truck red and have Kevin Taft tour the province, so don’t call the PC’s corrupt for stealing a good idea and running with it. Just because their caucus is larger than the Liberals doesn’t make them corrupt. The NDP also used taxpayer funds to do a province wide tour on health care, where Mason and Notley went out to hear comments from the public, but instead only heard what they wanted to hear.

    It’s unfortunate that you are so negative in your opinions, especially considering they are based on inaccuracies. Fortunately a majority of people disagree with you, so thank goodness the voters are always right.

    Reply
  14. Amecer

    Please explain the e-mail from Thomas Lukasiks office stating that the information was not available to the public then? Who got an invite, people on the tory membership list? Your so full of crap it’s not funny. You’re obviously nothing but another PC hack with an dishonest agenda.

    Reply
  15. Pingback: 2010 in review: alberta politics. | daveberta.ca

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