A new survey reported by the Calgary Herald:
The survey by Environics Research Group, provided exclusively to the Calgary Herald, indicates 34 per cent of decided voters would support Ed Stelmach’s Tory party if an election were held today.
Thirty-two per cent would cast a ballot for Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Alliance, meaning the figures are within the survey’s margin of error. The poll of 1,011 Albertans, conducted between Nov. 22 and Dec. 2, shows the Liberals under David Swann have seen their support slip slightly to 19 per cent, while Brian Mason’s NDP sit at 13 per cent.
The number of undecided voters is 17 per cent.
After a very rough month of fumbling the healthcare file, the Progressive Conservatives have dropped to 34%, down six points from an internal PC Party poll taken in October 2010 and released at that party’s recent policy conference. This is a far cry from March 2008, when the PCs swept 53% of the province-wide vote. Another recent survey showed that only 21% of Albertans approved of Premier Ed Stelmach‘s performance, possibly hurting his party’s support as reflected in this survey.
The Wildrose Alliance should be pleased with these numbers, which show them growing their support back above 30% and putting some distance between themselves and the third place Liberals. These survey numbers will likely help boost the spirits of the 26 already nominated Wildrose candidates as they campaign door to door in an increasingly cold winter. The survey continues a year-long trend showing that the Wildrose have been able to solidify their position as an Official Opposition-in-waiting among Alberta voters.
The article also says that the Wildrose are tied with the Liberals for second place in Edmonton, which should be troubling for the Liberals, who are hoping for that conservative party to grab enough votes away from the PCs in Edmonton to regain some constituencies they lost in the last election. Since December 2009, the Liberals have been unable to break away from their third place position after at least fifteen years of second place polling.
Depending on the margin of error, the NDP have either held or mildly grown their province-wide support.
Early in its organizing phase, the new Alberta Party has yet to register on any major survey, which may be a result of it not being an option or that it is just not yet registering among Albertans. Regardless, it shows how much hard work still needs to be done by that new party’s organizers to reach out beyond the people they have already engaged. That party is in the process of establishing Constituency Associations and will have thirty founded by the end of this month.
If anything, this survey shows how fluid political support in Alberta has become as we approach the next provincial election in either 2011 or 2012. Here are this month’s survey results along with others released over the past two Decembers:
December 2010 (Environics)
Other: 2% (assumed)
December 2009 (Angus Reid)
December 2008 (Environics)