Majority Government without Majority Support of Canadians
A big weakness of our electoral system reared its head last night as the Conservative Party formed their first majority government since 1988, but did not earn the majority support of Canadians. Prime Minister Stephen Harper‘s Party increased their seat count in the House of Commons to 167 while only receiving the support of roughly 40% of Canadian voters, creating a situation somewhat reminiscent of the Liberal Party victories of the 1990s.
In Alberta, the Conservatives elected 27 of 28 MPs while only receiving support of 66.8% of voters province-wide.
Back to two and a half
There are all sorts of predictions and speculative analysis that could be made about what the new dynamic means for Alberta. With the Bloc Quebecoisdecimated and the Liberal Party collapsed into third-party status, Canada has unexpectedly returned to a two [and a half?] party system similar to what existed before the 1993 election. It will be interesting to watch how this new old dynamic manifests itself and whether the Official Opposition NDP will be able to present a strong alternative to the probable Conservatives moves towards privatization of governments services and health care. It will also be interesting to watch whether the Liberals can recover from such a devastating electoral blow.
What could the new Parliament mean for Alberta?
With a Conservative majority government, Alberta will have a strong supporter of oil sands development in Ottawa, but it will also have a more vocal critic in the new and large NDP Official Opposition and Green Party leader Elizabeth May, who was elected in Sanich-Gulf Islands.
While visiting Alberta during the campaign, NDP leader Jack Laytononly briefly mentioned his party’s position on the oil sands, which is quickly replacing the old Central Canadian industrial base as Canada’s economic engine. As Official Opposition lead with a large contingent of MPs from Quebec, Mr. Layton may feel stronger license to criticize the development of the oil sands, which appears to be a popular stance in Central and Eastern Canada.
As NDP Environment Critic in the last Parliament, Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MP Linda Duncan could find herself placed front and centre of any upcoming Parliamentary debate on the future of Alberta’s oil sands.
Calling on his supporters to “paint Alberta blue” on May 2nd, Mr. Harper singled out Edmonton-Strathcona candidate Ryan Hastman, who is running in the election against NDP MP Linda Duncan. Mr. Harper’s campaign speech weighed heavily in predictable partisan rhetoric about low-taxes and how the “coalition” of opposition parties in the House of Commons forced this election.
I was watching the Calgary Flames game against the Minnesota Wild the other night and got my first glimpse of the new Conservative Party scare campaign against Michael Ignatieff on television. While I understand why political parties would produce these kind of advertisement and why they work, I believe that in the long-run this kind of hard negativity only succeeds in pushing more Canadians away from participating in the democratic system.
Anyway, the Conservative Party advertisement immediately reminded me of a similar advertisement produced in Australia. Watch both of the videos below and let me know what you think.
A sleeper riding on the outskirts of Calgary, Highwood has more controversy per acre, than bales of hay. For instance, the first thing you might notice about Okotoks, the riding’s largest town, is how the steady convoy of polluting vehicles travelling to and from Calgary at rush hour contradicts the town’s proud sign, “Sustainable Okotoks.”
Sign on Hwy 2A as you come into Okotoks.
The irony continues with the feting of Okotoks as the greenest community in Canada by such pundits as Prime Minister Stephen Harper and CBC’s Peter Mansbridge at the same time the “rurban” community sits in the chosen provincial riding of Wildrose leader Danielle Smith – a right wing student of the climate-change-denying Fraser Institute and cheerful avower that global warming science is “not settled.”
Smith’s running here, of course, because the riding has become a hotbed of disgruntled former PC Party supporters. Ever since the Stelmach administration passed the Land Stewardship Act last year and alienated rural conservatives with its infringement of property ownership, wealthy rural landowners such as J.C. Anderson and others have been seething. It seems nothing puts Stetson-hatted ranchers – real McCoys or not – more at unease than threats to their property rights.
Smack in the middle of this controversy is Alberta’s smooth-talking finance minister, Ted Morton, formerly the Sustainable Resource Development Minister responsible for pushing through the Land Stewardship Act. Rumour has it that Morton personally met with disgruntled PC party members in Highwood to discuss their objections to the Act, but in the end, he was immoveable, leaving them unimpressed and in many cases, infuriated.
Given this prairie windstorm, it’s no surprise the Highwood Wildrose Riding Association was one of the first the party set up and that it has shown some of the strongest membership numbers in the province. Throw in the fact that Premier Ed Stelmach’s “dissing” of local and much loved MLA George Groeneveld prompted the local PC riding association to pen a public letter of discontent, and the Tory stronghold looks a might shaky these days.
The Town of Okotoks recycling facility.
Upping the ante are a couple of wild card issues. The first is the redrawing of Highwood’s boundaries where new electoral lines have transformed the riding from a large rural land base to a small, dense area of people that more closely resembles an urban riding. The face of the riding has changed significantly to give the two towns of Okotoks and High River more sway.
Generally speaking, I’ve found you can count on Okotokians for their support for the principles of sustainability. In town surveys, residents consistently vote for (and in large numbers) living within the carrying capacity of the Sheep River watershed (aka “the population cap”). Despite Chamber of Commerce-type efforts to discredit the “slow growth” approach as “elitist” and “anti-business,” and despite shamefully blatant local newspaper support for the pro-growth candidate in the recent municipal election, the pro-cap mayor won.
It will be interesting, then, to see how Okotokians, especially those thousands who ostensibly flocked to town specifically because of its environmental reputation, mark their ballot in the next provincial election if forced to choose between a not-so-green Smith and a pro-growth PC candidate such as Morton. I’ve failed to mention any so-called “progressive” candidates as, thus far, neither the Liberal, NDP, Alberta Party, or former Greens (now Vision 2012) have come up with a single viable name. Yet, with Smith’s presence virtually guaranteeing media limelight, it would be a choice opportunity for a progressive to toss their hat into the ring. In fact, a group of local citizens have been working behind the scenes to try and forge an agreement for electoral cooperation to run a single progressive candidate.
View of Okotoks from hill on west side of town
The ultimate wild card in a riding desperate for water, of course, is the spectre of an Alberta water market. With the Stelmach government sending signals that water licenses may soon be up for purchase, the Wildrose could stake out a stance opposed to the water market. Catch is, this would require a change from the free market approach expected from a right-wing Wildroser, and that’s not a given.
They must be aware though, with housing developments at a virtual standstill due to water license shortages and the town running out of options, Okotoks is “ground zero” for the coming water wars. Whichever candidate takes the high road by campaigning to protect its citizens from a water market, an expensive pipeline, higher taxes, and encroaching suburban (Calgary) growth is likely guaranteed the Highwood seat. After all, grizzled landowners who’ve ranched in the area for generations AND the newly minted, solar-powered, recycling Okotoks’ crowd share one common concern—a secure, local water supply for themselves and their children.
That said, if Morton decides to run in Highwood, a high noon showdown is certain to be in the offing. The Tories will likely do anything to avoid water as an election issue, thus an attack on the “water front” would either secure an almost certain victory in the riding by those opposing it, or at the very least, boost Wildrose’s reputation elsewhere.
Despite the pull to the right from within her own party, Smith and her new advisors are said to be considering a more “moderate” approach in the upcoming election. It follows then, that this could justify a policy platform opposed to an Alberta water market. If that were the case, the only candidate left standing after Election Day would likely be Smith. And the progressives would be left in the dust, again. (Cue cowboy music.)
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Jody MacPherson has lived in the Highwood Riding for 15 years. She raised her two children in Okotoks and has been active in water and other environmental issues in the community. She’s been working in communications for more than 20 years and served for two years as the VP, Communications for the Alberta Liberal Party before stepping down in November. She’s currently working as a freelance communications and political consultant. You can read her blog at www.jodymacpherson.com and follow her tweets at @jody_macpherson.
Finance Minister Ted Morton launched his new website this past week. A quick glance of the new website will reveal some prominently placed photos of Minister Morton with notable Canadian politicians such as Prime Minister Stephen Harper, former Premier Ralph Klein, and even some of his cabinet colleagues, but conspicuously missing the website are any photos (or even any mention) of current Premier Ed Stelmach.
With a provincial general election expected in early 2012, this could be a sign that the former leadership candidate from Calgary is beginning to quietly distance himself from the leader of his party. Will other MLAs from southern Alberta follow his direction?
Opposition parties hope to turn the death of Edmonton’s Expo 2017 bid into a major campaign issue.
The Christian Heritage Party of Canada election campaign sign near Morinville, Alberta in the Westlock-St. Paul riding.
Federal opposition parties are preparing for the next federal election and nominating candidates in Alberta ridings where they think breakthroughs are possible.
The federal Liberals ended 2010 with a meeting in Edmonton-East selecting Shafik Ruda as their candidate of choice against five-term Member of Parliament Peter Goldring and former NDP MLA Ray Martin. Liberals in Calgary-East are expected to nominate Josipa Petrunic on January 18 to challenge Tory MP Deepak Obhrai. In late 2010, the Conservatives acclaimed party insider Michelle Rempel as their candidate in Calgary-Centre North, recently vacated by former Environment Minister Jim Prentice.
The federal Liberals slate in Alberta is expected to be bolstered when a high-profile candidate announces their intentions to stand against Labour Minister Rona Ambrose in Edmonton-Spruce Grove. Alberta political watchers have been abuzz with rumours that Ruth Kelly, publisher of Alberta Venture magazine and former President of Edmonton’s Chamber of Commerce, will carry the Liberal Party banner against Minister Ambrose. The rumours began after Ms. Kelly’s became an outspoken critics of the Government of Canada’s denial of funding for Edmonton’s bid for the 2017 Expo (and the large pile of federal infrastructure funding that was expected to come with a successful bid).
While I have remained largely indifferent to the 2017 Expo bid, it is easy to understand the frustration of the people who committed their time and energy towards the bid only to have political powers in Ottawa deny the funds needed to make it a reality. Minister Ambrose will be difficult to defeat, but I am glad that the Conservatives might actually have to pay some attention to and focus some of their campaign resources on a riding that they would likely take for granted.
A shift in financial and volunteer resources could also make a difference in the expected competitive races in Edmonton-Strathcona between NDP MP Linda Duncan and Tory candidate Ryan Hastman, and in Edmonton-Centre where Liberal Mary MacDonald and New Democrat Lewis Cardinal are challenging Tory MP Laurie Hawn.
A mail flyer sent out by Edmonton-Centre Conservative MP Laurie Hawn in Fall 2010.
Does Edmonton have a champion in Ottawa?
It is really hard to tell sometimes. Our Members of Parliament can be often seen at events around our city (some more than others), but none of them have distinguished themselves as Edmonton’s strong voice in the national capital.
Edmonton has its share of competent representatives in our local batch of current MPs, like Mike Lake, James Rajotte, Tim Uppal, and Mr. Hawn, but none of them have succeeded in carrying the kind of political clout that has defined Edmonton’s previous prominent champions in Ottawa.
In the recent past, our city has sent prominent voices like Jim Edwards, Deb Grey and Anne McLellan to the House of Commons and as one local columnist has suggested, we have not had a champion since. Edmonton’s lone opposition MP, Ms.Duncan, was elected with high expectations in October 2008, but has been somewhat of a ghost in our city ever since.
Are federal party leaders paying attention of Edmonton? Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, NDP leader Jack Layton, and Green Party leader Elizabeth Mayhave visited Edmonton a number of times in the past year. Prime Minister Stephen Harper visited Edmonton this year for the first time since 2008.
After a week-long break, MLAs returned to the Assembly for a week that started with three-sided tailing ponds and ended with an emergency debate on health care.
Edmonton-Meadowlark MLA Raj Sherman at 2010 Premier's Pancake Breakfast.
Emergency Debate on Health Care Edmonton-Meadowlark PC MLA and parliamentary assistant for Health & WellnessRaj Sherman got the attention he was looking for when he wrote a blunt email to the Premier, and several MLAs, cabinet ministers, and medical colleagues. The letter continued a month long media firestorm on the state of emergency room wait times in Alberta.
As Question Period ended yesterday, Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman succeeded in her bid to hold an emergency debate, which lasted for just over an hour and showcased some of the most passionate debate I have seen in the Assembly this year. This was the second attempt by the opposition during this session to initiate an emergency debate on this topic. A motion to extend the debate during the afternoon was defeated when a number of PC MLAs who did not want to extend their four day week on the Assembly floor (Ron Liepert, Jeff Johnson, and Barry McFarlandas tweeted by Liberal caucus Chief of Staff Rick Miller). UPDATE: Mr. Miller has commented below that his tweet was naming the three PC MLAs for not standing in support of the initial vote to have an emergency debate, not to vote against extending the debate past 4:30pm.
MLA Laurie Blakeman initiated the emergency debate.
For Dr. Sherman, the big question is what does his political future hold? After embarrassing the Premier and his caucus on this sensitive file, it is questionable how much longer his colleagues will tolerate an independence streak. With three former PC MLAs having crossed to the Wildrose Alliance in the past year, the Tories need to balance maintaining caucus unity without being too disciplinary with their more independent-minded MLAs. This is a balancing act that has proved difficult in the 68 MLA PC caucus.
Liberal Party AGM
The Liberal Party is holding its annual general meeting on November 27 and will elect three of its executive committee members, President, Vice-President (Policy), and Secretary. Edmonton Regional Director Erick Ambtman has declared his intentions to run for President. Current President, Debbie Cavaliere, was appointed on an interim basis after former President Tony Sansottaresigned in July. Ms. Cavaliere will be seeking election as VP (Policy) and current Secretary Nancy Cavanaugh will be seeking re-election for her position.
New NDP Communications Guy Richard Liebrecht started his new job as the Communications Director for the NDP Caucus this week. Mr. Liebrecht is a former reporter for the Edmonton Sun and editor at the Hinton Parklander. Mr. Liebrecht replaces another former Sun reporter Brookes Merritt, who recently left the NDP Caucus for a job at the Public Affairs Bureau.
The former Libertarian leader wants to carry the Wildrose flag in Calgary-Hays.
Distracted drivers
Alberta has a new distracted driving law that will prohibit the use of hand-held cell phones while driving.
Alberta Party (new) media coverage
If you missed the coverage of last weekend’s Alberta Party policy conference, there is no shortage of online news stories and blog posts. Here is a run-down from media and participants of the policy convention and recent Big Listens.
I do not regularly pay too much attention to federal politics, so I was surprised to learn yesterday that Environment Minster and Calgary Member of Parliament Jim Prentice was suddenly resigning to become Vice-Chairman of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (apparently most Ottawa-watchers were surprised by the move).
What surprised me most about Mr. Prentice was his ability to handle the environment portfolio, the Conservative’s most toxic ministerial portfolio (no pun intended) without destroying his own political credibility among moderates. I am one of many Canadians who was less than impressed with our federal government’s lackluster participation and irresponsible handling of the COP15 Summit in Copenhagen, but I was impressed from a political standpoint with how well Mr. Prentice managed his role.
There is already mounds of speculation about what Mr. Prentice’s political future holds and there have been some consistent rumors about his political future that I have heard over the past few years (if we assume that his departure is only a sojourn until the next political opportunity presents itself).
1) Going Provincial: I know more than just a few Red Tories who see Mr. Prentice as the heir to Jim Dinning‘s dauphin throne. As a popular MP and long-time PC Party supporter, Mr. Prentice would be well positioned to be the moderate “Calgary candidate” in the next Progressive Conservative leadership contest.
I have no doubt that he would almost immediately receive the support of top level Tory organizers in Calgary, especially those weary of Finance Minister Ted Morton or another candidate from northern Alberta. His entry into provincial politics would also be interesting if he did run in the Calgary-Mountain View constituency, which is currently represented by Liberal leader David Swann (Mr. Prentice was the PC candidate in Mountain View in the 1986 provincial election).
2) Going Federal: As Environment Minister, Jim Prentice took on the most difficult political file for the Conservatives without looking like a buffoon or seriously damaging his own political reputation. Being from Calgary might actually hurt him in the next Conservative Party leadership contest (both Stephen Harper and Preston Manning represented Calgary ridings), but a few years working in the private sector could help to distance him from Prime Minister Harper’s government.
Calgary-Centre North
Not surprisingly, attention has already turned to some of the rumors circulating about what will happen if a by-election is held in Calgary-Centre North before the next federal general election. Former Mayor Dave Bronconnier and former Ontario MP Robert Nault (who now lives in Calgary) are two names that I almost immediately heard rumoured for the Liberal Party nomination after yesterday afternoon’s resignation. Four names that are already being circulated for possible Conservative candidates are former Alderman Ric McIver, former Mayoral candidate Barb Higgins, current Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber, and recent Aldermanic candidate Sean Chu. Rumours aside, under the current circumstances it is difficult to believe that a by-election in this riding would produce anything but another Conservative MP.
The creation of a national securities regulator has created an interesting split in Alberta’s conservative movements. The national regulator, championed by the Ottawa Conservatives is strongly opposed on the provincial-level in Alberta by the Wildrose Alliance and governing Progressive Conservative parties.
Wildrose leader Danielle Smith in a May 26, 2010 media release:
“As I have travelled the province and met with business leaders, many have talked about the importance of choice in terms of where they raise money and have their affairs regulated.”
“If the federal government plans to take away this choice from Alberta’s entrepreneurs, we hope that the Government of Alberta will aggressively pursue its intervention against this intrusive law.”
“Alberta is not opposed to improving on the system we have, but we are opposed to the federal government acting unilaterally in an area that is provincial jurisdiction.”
“A federal regulator headquartered in Toronto could make it harder for these and other Alberta businesses to raise funds for growth and development.”
“If we open the door to federal intrusion in this area, we will be potentially inviting intrusion into other areas of provincial jurisdiction governing finance, such as insurance, pensions and financial institutions. Most Albertans don’t want this, and this is why we have joined forces with Québec to challenge the legality of this unprecedented federal power grab.”
Airdrie-Chestermere Wildrose MLA Rob Anderson in a May 26, 2010 media release:
“If businesses want to participate in a nationally-regulated system, they should be free to opt-in to that kind of arrangement. If businesses want to participate in a provincially-regulated system, then they should be free to continue.”
“Today we have 13 regulators, 13 sets of rules and 13 sets of fees. We need to lower barriers, not multiply them.”
Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the Toronto Star:
“As an Albertan, I have no interest in seeing this sector centralized in Toronto.”
What happens if Alberta decides to opt out of the national securities regulator? Heather Zordel, a securities lawyer with Cassels Brock, told the Hamilton Spectator:
“If Alberta is not participating, where does that leave you? Well, that leaves you with an unfortunate situation where the co-ordination effort is going to have to be dealt with through the offices of the people that do participate.”
Historyshows that Albertans should be cautious of ceding autonomy to central Canadian institutions – especially in relation to our natural resources – but this appears to be more complex than a typical Ottawa versus Alberta struggle. Alberta’s New West Partnership allies, British Columbia and Saskatchewan, suspicious silence on the issue begs the question of how much this really has to do with the state of the conservative movement in Alberta? Perhaps Minister Morton’s beating the war drums against Ottawa has more to do with the Wildrose Alliance than a national regulator.
