It would appear as though Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s decision to campaign with Conservative candidates in Ontario during the federal election did not improve those candidates chances on election night. According to unofficial results from the election, the average Conservative vote in the ridings of the 24 candidates who campaigned with Kenney dropped from 36.3 per cent in the 2015 election to 33.2 percent in 2019.
It appears as though only two candidates who Kenney tweeted that he campaigned with while in Ontario were elected on Monday. Thornhill MP Peter Kent saw his vote percentage drop from 58 percent to 54 percent, and Markham-Unionville candidate Bob Saroya earned the same 49 percent of the vote as he did in the previous election.
Only one candidate who Kenney campaigned with, Justina McCaffrey from Kanata-Carleton, saw her party’s vote total rise (from 30 percent in 2015 to 37 percent in 2019).
It was quite unusual for a premier to campaign for their federal party of choice in another province, but it was less unusual because the premier in question is Jason Kenney, a former federal cabinet minister who very much still operates as national politician.
Kenney is frequently named as a potential candidate for the leadership of the Conservative Party, and with Andrew Scheer on rocky ground after the party’s disappointing results in the election, this is a role that might come true for the Alberta Premier sooner than expected.
His decision to help out Ontario candidates in this election could help with his leadership ambitions, but the lack of a “Kenney bump” could fuel the impression that the western politician is not as powerful a force in retail politics in Ontario’s 905 region as he was believed to be.
As Kenney’s whistle-stop tour steamed through Ontario’s Ottawa area and 905 region, the actual Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, was nowhere to be seen.
As Conservatives reflect on the results of the 2019 election, some are already suggesting that keeping the controversial Ford out of sight may have been a tactical mistake by Scheer’s campaign. Ford was seen as a liability to the federal campaign, but in hindsight he might have been a draw for the Conservative Party in Ontario.
While Kenney is certainly popular with Conservative partisans, it would appear as though that his perceived star power might have had little impact on the chances of Ontario Conservative candidates on October 21, 2019.