Tag: Mandy Melnyk

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Alberta Politics

Can the Alberta NDP win in Calgary?

Rachel Notley NDP MLA Leadership Candidate Alberta
Edmonton-Strathcona MLA Rachel Notley

To describe it as a long-shot is polite, but two Edmonton MLAs running for the leadership of Alberta’s New Democratic Party say that growing support in Calgary is critical. Edmonton-Strathcona MLA Rachel Notley launched her campaign for her party’s leadership at Niko’s Bistro in Kensington this week. And Edmonton-Calder MLA David Eggen described Alberta’s largest city as ‘unploughed ground’ for the NDP.

David Eggen NDP MLA Leadership Candidate Alberta
Edmonton-Calder MLA David Eggen

At her Calgary launch, Ms. Notley was introduced by former alderman Bob Hawkesworth, one of the last New Democrats to be elected under that party’s banner in Calgary. Mr. Hawkesworth was elected along with fellow New Democrat Barry Pashak in the 1986 and 1989 elections. Both men were defeated in the 1993 election, along with every other NDP candidate in the province.

The NDP has regained support in Edmonton, earning 21% in the last provincial election, but it has never recovered in Calgary. In the past two provincial elections the NDP earned less than 5% of the total vote in Calgary.

Although the provincial NDP earned 19,942 votes (4%) in Calgary in the 2012 provincial election, the Orange Wave in the 2011 federal election helped that party collect an impressive 51,652 votes in cowtown.

A handful of popular Liberal MLAs – like  David Swann, Kent Hehr, and formerly Harry Chase – have successfully held the progressive (non-PC Party) banner in that city for the past three elections. But a decline in Liberal Party support may open an opportunity for a resurgent NDP looking for gains in Calgary, if the NDP actually work for it.

Back in 2009, I was a freelance writer covering the annual NDP convention. While most delegates were caught up debating constitutional resolutions in a dingy and windowless conference room in downtown Edmonton, the Calgary-Glenmore by-election was heating up.

When I asked an NDP organizer why they hadn’t hired a bus to shuttle the 150 delegates down south for a day to help their candidate (a move that would have been a strong show of support), the individual replied that they were sure the party had it under control. Come election day, Wildrose candidate Paul Hinman narrowly defeated Liberal Avalon Roberts, with Tory Diane Colley-Urquhart placing third and the NDP candidate placed a distant fourth with an insignificant 1.3% of the vote.

Any viable opposition party in Alberta needs to be competitive in the province’s largest city. Even if they are only competitive in a few constituencies, the NDP need to have a presence in Calgary before they can claim to be a true provincial opposition.

NDP could make gains in Lethbridge
This week the NDP nominated researcher Shannon Phillips as their candidate in Lethbridge-West. The NDP hope that with some hard work Ms. Phillips can build on her 2012 results, when she boosted her party’s support to 29%, up from 10% in the 2008 election. Those 2012 results placed Ms. Phillips ahead of the Wildrose candidate and just over 1,000 votes behind PC MLA Greg Weadick.

A Rural Target?
Last month, the NDP sought to hire a field organizer based in the Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater riding, which is currently represented by controversial Education minister Jeff Johnson.

While the area northeast of Edmonton has not been a hotbed of traditional support, NDP candidate and potential leadership candidate Mandy Melnyk earned 13.7% of the vote in the last election, the NDP’s best result in rural Alberta.
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Alberta Politics

alberta election maps: percentage of vote by constituency.

I have spent some time over the past week looking at the voting numbers from Monday’s general election and have created these maps showing the percentage of vote earned by each party. The most stunning change from previous election is the significant drop in support for Alison Redford‘s Progressive Conservatives in rural central and southern Alberta rural constituencies, which have given the PCs large majority votes in most elections over the past 40 years.

The strength of Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party was largely concentrated in rural central and southern constituencies, a few rural northern Alberta constituencies, and in south Calgary. Only one Wildrose candidate in an urban Edmonton-area constituency earned more than 30% of the vote (Garnett Genuis in Sherwood Park).

Rural Alberta was a vast wasteland for the Liberal Party and NDP in the 2012 election. Only in three rural constituencies did these two parties earn at least 11% of the vote (New Democrats Mandy Melnyk in Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater and Bruce Hinkley in Wetaskiwin-Camrose and Liberal Pete Helfrich in Banff-Cochrane.

Dr. Raj Sherman‘s Liberal Party found its only significant support concentrated in less than a dozen constituencies in central and west Edmonton and central and northeast Calgary. Support for Brian Mason‘s NDP was concentrated in central and north Edmonton constituencies and Lethbridge-West.

Progressive Conservative percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election
Progressive Conservative percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election
Wildrose percentage of votes by constituency 2012 Election
Wildrose Party percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election
Liberal Party percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election
Liberal Party percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election
NDP percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election
NDP percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election
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Alberta Politics

alberta candidate nomination update – october 2011 (part 3).

I have updated the list of candidates who have been nominated or declared their intentions to stand as candidates in Alberta’s next provincial election expected in 2012. Please email comment below or email me at david.cournoyer@gmail.com if there are additions to the list.

Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock: CUPE activist Trudy Grebenstein is seeking the NDP nomination scheduled for November 14, 2011. Ms. Grebenstein previously contested the NDP nomination in Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater on September 21 and was defeated by Mandy Melnyk.

Bonnyville-Cold Lake: Many-time NDP candidate Luanne Bannister is seeking the NDP nomination on November 16. Ms. Bannister has previously stood as an NDP candidate in the 2004 election in Cardston-Taber-Warner and in the 2008 election in Drayton Valley-Calmar.

Calgary-Fort: Jeevan Mangat has been nominated as the new Wildrose candidate in Calgary-Fort. Mr. Mangat replaces previously nominated candidate Bob McInnis, whostepped down for personal reasons earlier this year. Also contesting the nomination wasDalton Dalik.

Calgary-Hawkwood: Previously nominated in Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill, Collin Anderson is now seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-Hawkwood. In the 2008 election, Mr. Anderson stood as the NDP candidate in Calgary-North West.

Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill: Replacing the previously nominated Mr. Anderson (see above) is Anne Wilson who is seeking the NDP nomination scheduled for November 10. Ms. Wilson was the NDP candidate in Banff-Cochrane in the 2008 election.

Cardston-Taber-Warner: The NDP have nominated Barbara Eng-Bonthoux as their long-shot candidate in this deep rural south constituency. In the 2008 election, NDP candidate Susan Sirias earned 190 votes out of the 9,505 votes cast.

Edmonton-Centre: The NDP nomination originally scheduled for last week has been postponed. The candidate expected to be nominated was Nadine Bailey, who had stood as the federal NDP candidate in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont in the recent federal election.

Edmonton-Whitemud: Julia Necheff has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate. Ms. Necheff is a former reporter with Canadian Press and writer for Faculty of Medicine at the University of Alberta.

Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: The Progressive Conservative nomination to replace retiring MLA Richard Marz is scheduled for November 26, 2011. Declared candidates include Darcy Davis, Al Kemmere, and William Stevenson. The NDP have nominated Kristie Krezanoski as their candidate.

Red Deer-South: On November 3, 2011, the Alberta Party is expected to nominate Serge Gingras as their candidate.

Rocky Mountain House: Jocelyn Stenger is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate at a meeting scheduled for November 17, 2011. Ms. Stenger is currently employed in the Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood constituency office of NDP MLA Brian Mason.

St. Albert: Recently retired Canadian Forces Major Jeff Wedman is seeking the PC nomination in St. Albert, challenging incumbent PC MLA Ken Allred. Mr. Wedman recently retired as Deputy Commanding Officer of 408 Tactical Helicopter Squadron in Edmonton. Mr. Allred was first elected in 2008 after defeating Liberal MLA Jack Flaherty by 2,805 votes.

Stony Plain: Alberta Federation of Labour staff member Linda Robinson is seeking the NDP nomination scheduled for November 1, 2011.

Vermilion-Lloydminster: Many-time NDP candidate Ray Stone is seeking his party’s nomination on November 16, 2011. Mr. Stone stood as his party’s candidate in Vermilion-Lloydminster in the 2004 election and as the federal NDP candidate in Vegreville-Wainwright in the 2008 and 2011 elections.

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alberta candidate nomination update – september 2011 (part 2)

I have updated the list of declared and nominated candidates standing in the next provincial election.

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater: At a nomination meeting scheduled for September 21, former Liberal caucus staffer turned NDP activist Mandy Melnyk will face Canadian Union of Public Employees Local 3550 President Trudy Grebenstein for the NDP nomination.

Calgary-Bow: Former Alderman and mayoral candidate Joe Connelly has joined the Wildrose nomination contest. Also contesting the nomination are Tim Dyck and John Hilton-O’Brien.

Calgary-Buffalo: Mount Royal University Professor Lee Easton has withdrawn his name as the Alberta Party candidate in this constituency. Mr. Easton was a candidate for the Alberta Party leadership earlier this year.

Calgary-Currie: Businessman Norval Horner is seeking the Liberal nomination. Mr. Horner is a distant cousin to Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Doug Horner. The Liberals held this constituency until 2010, when two-term MLA Dave Taylor left to sit as an Independent. He later joined the Alberta Party and recently announced he would not be seeking re-election.

Calgary-East: Robin Luff was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5.

Calgary-Fort: Kirk Oates was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5. Mr. Oates was the federal NDP candidate in Calgary-Southeast in the 2011 federal election.

Calgary-Greenway: Al Brown was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5. Mr. Brown has run for the NDP on numerous occasions, including as their candidate in Calgary-East in the recent federal election.

Calgary-McCall: Collette Singh was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5. Ms. Singh was her party’s candidate in Calgary-Northeast in the recent federal election.

Calgary-Varsity: Cynthia Caldwell was nominated as the NDP candidate at a joint-nomination meeting on September 5.

Cardston-Taber-Warner: On September 17, businessman Doug Cooper and Village of Sterling Deputy Mayor Gary Bikman will contest the Wildrose nomination. Former nomination candidate David Wright withdrew his name from the contest and endorsed Mr. Bikman. The constituency was represented by Wildrose MLA Paul Hinman from 2004 until 2008 (Mr. Hinman now represents Calgary-Glenmore).

Drumheller-Stettler – What was originally shaping up to be a five person Wildrose nomination contest has dwindled down to a two person race. Still left in the contest are Rick Strankman and Doug Wade. The three other candidates, Dave France, Chris Warwick, and Patrick Turnbull, dropped out of the race when they did not meet the necessary qualifications required by their party.

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview: Businessman Don Martin is seeking the Wildrose nomination.

Edmonton-Decore: Real Estate agent Ed Ammar is the nominated Liberal candidate in the constituency named for former Liberal Party leader Laurence Decore. Liberal MLAs Mr. Decore, Bill Bonner, and Bill Bonko represented the area from 1989 until 2008, when former School Board Trustee Janice Sarich captured it for the PCs.

Edmonton-Ellerslie: Community activist Chinwe Okelu is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. founder of Young and Associates, an Edmonton-based company that facilitates mediation and negotiations. He has run for City Council numerous times and his connections as a former Liberal Party supporter will create an interesting dynamic in this contest, in which former MLA Bharat Agnihotri is also running.

Edmonton-Glenora: Former NDP MLA Ray Martin is seeking his party’s nomination in this constituency. He was his party’s leader from 1984 until 1994, Mr. Martin was the MLA for Edmonton-Norwood from 1982 until 1993 and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview from 2004 until 2008. He has also ran for federal office in 1997, 2000, 2008, and 2011.

Edmonton-Mill Creek: Mike Butler is seeking the Liberal nomination. Mr. Butler ran for the federal Liberals in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont in the 2011 election and for the NDP in the same federal riding in the 2008 election. He also ran for the NDP in Edmonton-Rutherford in the 2008 provincial election.

Lethbridge-West: Activist and writer Shannon Phillips defeated James Moore to capture the NDP nomination on September 11. Ms. Phillips has received high-profile endorsements from Stephen Lewis and Naomi Klein.

St. Albert: Local businessman Tim Osborne was acclaimed as the Alberta Party candidate.

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