Category: Avalon Roberts

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Diane Colley-Urquhart Ed Stelmach Eric Carpendale Len Skowronski Paul Hinman Sheldon Chumir

calgary-glenmore by-election results.

Paul Hinman, WAP: 4,052 (37%)
Avalon Roberts, Lib: 3,776 (34%)
Diane Colley-Urquhart, PC: 2,863 (26%)
Eric Carpendale, NDP: 148 (1%)
Len Skowronski, SC: 118 (1%)
Tony Gronchowski, Ind: 71 (1%)

There will undoubtedly be no shortage of analysis and punditry about the impact of these results during the political season this fall, so here are some thoughts to help start it off:

– Calgary-Glenmore represents only the fourth time since 1979 where a provincial by-election has resulted in a switch of party representation. This is the second since Ed Stelmach became Premier in 2006.

– Paul Hinman is returning to the Alberta Legislature. Hinman is the outgoing Wildrose Alliance leader and served as the MLA for Cardston-Taber-Warner from 2004 to 2008. A 37% victory is far from a landslide, but it appears that Hinman’s SEND ED A MESSAGE campaign resonated with a plurality of voters in Glenmore. It will be interesting to see if this by-election win increases public interest in that party’s leadership race scheduled for October 17.

– The Alberta Liberals were hoping to build on their Calgary gains from the 2008 election, but candidate Avalon Roberts’ strong second-place finish showed that the Liberals have been unable to grow their share of the vote from 2008. This is not great news for an Official Opposition party that has constantly struggled to define itself.

– How could Diane Colley-Urquhart not win? Some pundits may point out that the last time a PC candidate placed so poorly in a Calgary by-election was Calgary-Buffalo in 1992. While I’m not disputing that Rod Love‘s third place finish in the 1992 contest was embarrassing, the Calgary-Glenmore scenario is quite different. Unlike Calgary-Buffalo in 1992, which had been represented by popular Liberal MLA Sheldon Chumir, Calgary-Glenmore has been a PC stronghold since 1971. Also, unlike Love, Diane Colley-Urquhart was not a parachute candidate. Colley-Urquhart is a nine-year Alderman, a former President of the Glenmore PC Association, and the campaign manager for former MLA Ron Stevens. Colley-Urquhart knew Glenmore and the PCs still managed to lose over 3,500 votes in this election.

– When did it become an appropriate use of public resources for the Premier to issue a media release from the Government of Alberta thanking a candidate for running for his party? Rather than congratulating Hinman on his election, Premier Stelmach issued a Government of Alberta media release thanking Colley-Urquhart for her “strong and honourable campaign.” There was no mention of the MLA-elect for Calgary-Glenmore in the media release.

– With an upcoming leadership review, expect Premier Stelmach to initiate some classic overcompensation. Since the end of the spring legislative session, there have been endless rumours about a fall cabinet shuffle and who it could include. Rumour has it that new Calgary faces in the cabinet that could include Dave Rodney and Len Webber.

– The Alberta NDP and Social Credit candidates battled throughout the evening for the fifth place finish, with Socred leader Len Skowronski finally besting NDP flag-bearer Eric Carpendale late in the evening.

Related:
Alex Abboud: Calgary Goes Wild(rose)
Ken Chapman: By-Election Results Show Premier Stelmach has some serious soul searching to do!
Chris Labossiere: Between a WRAP and a Hard Place
Trish Audette: Break out the welcome mat…
Calgary Grit: A Wild(rose) ride in Calgary Glenmore
Graham Thomson: Stelmach’s nightmare now a reality

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Diane Colley-Urquhart Eric Carpendale Len Skowronski Paul Hinman

a message to calgary-glenmore voters.

Dear Calgary-Glenmore voters,

From 9:00 AM to 8:00 PM today, you have the opportunity to vote in the by-election that will choose your next MLA.

In the last general election only 41% of you voted.

You’ve probably heard a lot about how tens of thousands of Canadians have died to protect your democracy and your right to vote. I would reiterate this point, but because it didn’t faze 59% of you during the last election, it probably won’t faze you now.

So, to get to the point, please don’t embarrass Alberta with a low voter turnout today. You don’t have good excuse, so get out and vote.

Sincerely,

Dave

Candidate Information
Eric Carpendale
Diane Colley-Urquhart
Antoni Grochowski
Paul Hinman
Avalon Roberts
Len Skowronski

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Alberta Electoral Boundary Review Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Diane Colley-Urquhart Paul Hinman

the reports of its death are greatly exaggerated.

As the national media and blogosphere let out a collective gasp at the prospect of a political party wanting to form a majority government, Graham Thomson points out that the much less attention grabbing world of Alberta politics is far from dead.

Next week marks the beginning of the first round of public hearings for the Electoral Boundaries Commission and the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore. This weekend also marks the Alberta NDPs 43rd annual convention, and while it’s no surprise that the left faces some serious challenges in Alberta, so apparently does the right.

At their first leadership forum in Grande Prairie, the Wildrose Alliance is reported to have only attracted 30 people. While Grande Prairie has hardly been a hotbed of Wildrose Alliance support (that party only contested one of that city’s ridings, Grande Prairie-Smoky, where the candidate placed third with 13% support), it raises questions if that party’s leadership race is attracting more media attention than it is attracting new members.

Their leadership convention isn’t until October 17, but much of that party’s short-term prospects will be determined by how well outgoing leader Paul Hinman places in Monday’s by-election. Even if voters in Calgary-Glenmore choose not to elect Hinman, but he is able to significantly increase his party’s vote it could be seen a moral victory. Between the 2004 and 2008 elections, the Alliance increased its vote by 4% to 1,025 votes, which add up to a significant amount of votes in a by-election that may see a lower than normal voter turnout.

As Hinman’s campaign pushes into the final days of the by-election, I’m sure that Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts will be hoping that the Wildrose Alliance cutting into the right-wing supporters of PC candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart will lead to a repeat of Craig Cheffins‘ 2007 Calgary-Elbow victory. Not a far fetched scenario.

I will be at tonight’s Wildrose Alliance leadership forum and this weekend’s NDP convention in Edmonton, and will be reporting back on this blog and on twitter with all the latest news.

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Danielle Smith Diane Colley-Urquhart Mark Dyrholm Mary MacDonald Ralph Goodale Susan Stratton

alberta red, green, and blue.

Green endorses Glenmore Liberal: Former Alberta Greens Vice-President & candidate Susan Stratton has endorsed Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts in the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore, which is being held on September 14.

“I’m not a Liberal; I’m a Green, but our first job as opposition voters is to stand together to defeat the Conservatives. Only Avalon Roberts can do that. She’s a quality candidate who won nearly eight times more votes than either the Greens or New Democrats in last year’s general election.”

The Greens aren’t running a candidate in this by-election and are in the process of being de-registered by Elections Alberta. On another Calgary-Glenmore related note, Jeremy at PolitiCalgary has leveled some strong criticisms of PC candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart, suggesting that she ‘needs to move away from the same political game.‘

Wildrose Leadership Forums: The Wildrose Alliance will be holding leadership forums in Grande Prairie (September 8), Edmonton (September 10), Calgary (September 16), Lethbridge (September 17), and Red Deer (September 23). Candidates for the leadership of the right-wing party include Danielle Smith, Mark Dyrholm, and Jeff Willerton. I am planning to check out the September 10 forum in Edmonton.

Goodale in Edmonton: Wascana Liberal MP Ralph Goodale is in Alberta today and will be speaking at a Town Hall meeting in Edmonton-Centre, no doubt to help shore up support for candidate Mary MacDonald. The Town Hall will be held from 8:00pm to 9:00pm at the Westmount Community League.

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Diane Colley-Urquhart Eric Carpendale Len Skowronski Paul Hinman Ron Stevens

social media guide to the calgary-glenmore by-election.

As was announced earlier this week, and covered by bloggers elsewhere, a by-election has been called for September 14, 2009 to fill the vacant Calgary-Glenmore seat Alberta’s Legislative Assembly. The vacancy was created when Deputy Premier Ron Stevens resigned and accepted a Judicial appointment last May. In preparation for the impending by-election, candidates have been hitting the pavement in the months since Stevens’ resignation, but how have they been doing on the social media front?

At this point, it appears that the two candidates most active on the social media front are PC candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart and Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts. Both of these candidates are using websites, writing blogs, and are active on Twitter and Facebook. NDP candidate Eric Carpendale doesn’t appear to have a website, but he has recently started a Twitter account and has a support group on Facebook. While Wildrose Alliance candidate Paul Hinman‘s current web presence appears to be limited to his website, it is chalk full of the message “Send Ed a Message” (even in the url).

At midpoint in the by-election, I will take a look at how each the candidates have been using social media to engage voters and catch the attention of both the old and new media.

Eric Carpendale (NDP)
Facebook / Twitter

Diane Colley-Urquhart (PC)
Website / Blog / Facebook / Twitter

Paul Hinman (WRA)
Website

Avalon Roberts (LIB)
Website/Blog / Facebook / Flickr / Twitter / YouTube

Len Skowronski (SC)
Bio on official Social Credit website

If I have missed anything, please feel free to email me or write a comment below. Thanks!

Related Post:
Alberta Politics Online

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Corey Hogan Paul Hinman Ron Stevens

calgary-glenmore candidate update.

Avalon Roberts was chosen as the Liberal candidate at a nomination meeting in Calgary-Glenmore this week. Over 150 Liberals are reported to have shown up to participate in the meeting, where Roberts faced off against Corey Hogan. (Matthew Naylor live-blogged the evening)

Paul Hinman has been officially nominated as the Wild Rose Alliance candidate.

A by-election to replace former MLA Ron Stevens is expected to take place in Fall 2009.

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Cathay Wagantall Corey Hogan Danielle Smith George Dadamo Laurence Decore Linda Blade Linda Duncan Nathan Cullen Paul Hinman Ryan Hastman

june nomination blitz.

– June 16 is the date of the Conservative nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona. Linda Blade, Ryan Hastman, and Cathay Wagantall have spent the last month duking it out for the opportunity to run against NDP MP Linda Duncan.

– June 22 is the date of the Alberta Liberal nomination in Calgary-Glenmore that will see Corey Hogan and Avalon Roberts face off for the right to carry their party’s banner into the upcoming by-election to replace former PC MLA Ron Stevens.

– June 23 is the date of the Wild Rose Alliance nomination meeting in Calgary-Glenmore. It looks as if outgoing leader and former Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Paul Hinman may be the only candidate to seek the nod.

– Danielle Smith: Wild Rose Renaissance? One blogger is boldly predicting that she is “the greatest threat to the Tory dynasty in Alberta since Laurence Decore.”

– Former Ontario NDP MPP, nearly interested Liberal, and now Calgary Mayoral candidate George Dadamo will soon be accepting applications for new campaign staff.

– The Alberta NDP hosted a revitalization conference in Edmonton last weekend. I am told that BC MP Nathan Cullen knocked the socks off the over 100 attendees with a rousing speech. Union orgainzer Eric Carpendale has been appointed as the NDP candidate for the upcoming Calgary-Glenmore by-election.

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Craig Cheffins Dave Rodney David Swann Ed Stelmach Heather Forsyth Kyle Fawcett Len Webber Manmeet Bhullar Ron Stevens

three questions about calgary-glenmore and cabinet shuffles.

With the resignation of Deputy Premier and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Ron Stevens last week causing an imminent by-election in Calgary-Glenmore, Edmonton Journal Political Writer Trish Audette posed the following three questions which I have responded with my thoughts:

1. How will Premier Ed Stelmach shuffle cabinet?

Premier Ed Stelmach may avert a shuffle by taking personal responsibility of the Intergovernmental Affairs Minister portfolio (as former Premier Ralph Klein did from 1993 to 1994). If the Premier decides to shuffle the cabinet, this could mean a rearranging the current cabinet or promoting a backbencher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the capable Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber appointed to a cabinet spot, as this would keep Calgary’s cabinet representation at the same level.

From a (by-)electoral standpoint, it would be smart for Stelmach to increase the number of Calgary cabinet ministers before the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore. If this is the route the Premier takes, Webber could be joined by newer Calgary region MLAs like Manmeet Bhullar, Kyle Fawcett, Dr. Neil Brown, Dave Rodney, Rob Anderson, or even Klein-era Cabinet Minister turned Stelmach-era backbencher Heather Forsyth.

While Stevens’ resignation gives Stelmach the opportunity to shuffle the less talented elements out of the cabinet, the Premier has a track record of being incredibly loyal to his supporters, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near status quo cabinet shuffle.

2. Will the resulting by-election in Calgary-Glenmore be an opening for the Wildrose Alliance?

The Wildrose Alliance (and its predecessor) increased its support in Calgary-Glenmore from 571 votes (5%) in 2004 to 1,025 (8%) in 2008. By-elections traditionally attract a lower voter turnout than General Elections, so a high profile candidate could potentially do well while taking advantage of the lower turnout. Rumoured Wildrose Alliance leadership candidate Danielle Smith could mount a strong challenge for the right-wing party in this by-election.

3. How hard are the Conservatives and Liberals going to fight for this riding?

PC MLAs have represented this riding since 1969 and the PC Party will fight hard to avoid the embarrassment of a Calgary-Elbow style defeat. As predicted, Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart is the first candidate to publicly enter the PC nomination contest.

This is the first electoral test that Calgary-Mountain View MLA David Swann will face since becoming Leader of the Alberta Liberal Party in December 2008. Swann is the first Calgary-based Liberal leader since the 1970s, so this by-election will be an important indicator of his party’s appeal in Alberta’s largest city, and it will be an uphill battle. In 2008, Calgary-Glenmore Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts earned 33%, while Liberal MLA Craig Cheffins was narrowly defeated in neighbouring Calgary-Elbow. Former Ontario MPP George Dadamo is the first candidate to publicly express interest in the Liberal nomination.

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