Alberta Politics

New Map: Calgary-Centre by-election results.

Poll-by-poll results from the November 26, 2012 by-election in Calgary-Centre (click image for larger map).
Poll-by-poll results from the November 26, 2012 by-election in Calgary-Centre (click image for larger map). Thanks to Alan Hall for the map.

Elections Canada recently released the official poll-by-poll results of the November 26, 2012 federal by-election in Calgary-Centre. The hotly contested by-election was narrowly won by Conservative Joan Crockatt, who fended off strong challenges from Liberal Harvey Locke and Green Chris Turner.

While the Conservatives were able to win in this long-held riding, this was the first time in recent memory that candidates from non-conservative federal parties came even close to winning an election in Calgary.

Here are the official results as released by Elections Canada:

Joan Crockatt, CON – 10,191 (36.9%)
Harvey Locke, LIB – 9,033 (32.7%)
Chris Turner, GRN – 7,090 (25.7%)
Dan Meades, NDP – 1,064 (3.8%)
Antoni Grochowski, IND – 141 (0.5%)
Tony Prashad, LBTRN – 92 (0.4%)

5 replies on “New Map: Calgary-Centre by-election results.”

And as I noted at the time, you would be hard-pressed to find ridings where the incumbent retired and the new candidate performed better than the incumbent did (adjusting for a party’s election-over-election vote percentage jumps). By next election it would not surprise me if Ms. Crockatt pulled in around 45%.

Sadly, it is even more clear from this map than from the overall numbers that while both the Liberals and the Greens were a factor in the by-election, the NDP wasn’t. While the NDP may be stronger in the Edmonton area, Calgary remains a wasteland for “Dippers”. OTOH, if the Libs & Greens were to find a way to common ground, a non-Tory candidate could perhaps win in Calgary; it just would not be an NDP candidate.

Of interest is that under the new boundaries, and adding in an additional 15% pro-rata turn out in Calgary Centre, and the 2011 general election results for those polls from Calgary East, Harvey Locke would have won.
Should make for an interesting rematch in 2015.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *