On Monday, Albertans went to the polls in what was expected to be a historic turning point in our province’s electoral history. It turns out that history likely only remember this election as one that extended the Progressive Conservatives 41-year old reign.
More than 190 people entered the joint daveberta.ca and CalgaryGrit Great Alberta Election Prediction Pool, but like nearly all the pollsters and pundits, most entries were far away from the actual results on election night (I placed 177th and Dan Arnold placed 114th in the pool).
Each prediction received 87 points minus one point for each seat you are off per party, plus two points per correct bonus question (see the questions here).
The two overall winners Marie and Tom, who left comments on this blog, earned 87 points each and will be contacted via email (if I am unable to contact them, the next placing entrant will be contacted and offered the prize). Prussian Prince, who answered 9 of the 10 bonus questions correct, will also receive one of the prize packs generously donated by Robert Vollman. Looking at overall points earned, the top ten contestants in the pool are:
Marie (87 points)
Tom (87 points)
Alexis MacMillian (83 points)
Blake Robert (81 points)
Kyle Olsen (81 points)
Andrew F (75 points)
Ryan (73 points)
SaraEdmonton (73 points)
Gwen May (71 points)
Kristin Stolarz (71 points)
The day before the election, we released the means and averages of the pool, which at the time had more than 100 entries. The average of the seat count predictions had the Wildrose Party with 42 MLA’s, the PCs with 37 MLA’s, the NDP with 4 MLA’s, and the Liberals with 3 MLA’s. A majority of the entries predicted that cabinet minister Ted Morton would be defeated in Chestermere-Rockyview and that Premier Alison Redford would be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow.
Thank you to everyone who entered the pool. Any entrant who is curious how they placed can send me an email at email@example.com.