the day after: alberta election analysis.

The next four years belong to the Alberta Party!

The Wildrose went from zero to opposition in four years and the Alberta Party must use the next four years to establish itself as a new progressive option.

Put the WRP majority projections in the bin with the ‘Canucks in 4’ predictions!

Did you pay the CBC for using their graphics?

Kathryn Burke: The Wildrose Party stands for freedom. That includes free votes and freedom of speech. If I want to have freedom to speak as I wish, I must also give that freedom to others — even if I disagree with them. If Danielle had ousted the preacher and Leech, the other parties would have
questioned how much freedom Wildrose really has.

There were fundamental differences between 2012 and 1971 that the PCs counted on. First, there has been a demographic shift to greater ethnic diversity, and towards a more educated middle class. These cohorts could have formed a stronger coalition on the right, but the right flank had already fallen prior to October 2011. The siren song to the traditional adversaries of the ATA, and social welfare advocates was well under way. I personally believed this to be a blunder; but apparently Alison knew better. Perhaps she reasoned that social policies like a strong education system and protection of society’s most vulnerable were simply good ideas that anyone of common sense could appreciate.

The clear weakness signaled by the Liberal Party, indicated by their misfortune of electing a former PC as their leader (a product of the ridiculous idea of an open vote) likely sent scores of moderates adrift. These were the great wave of undecided, who held their nose as they voted PC, perhaps for the first time.

The weakness of the WRP, I believe, was revealed in the first debate. Dani showed some very autocratic/ideological leanings, citing for example her clear allegiance with religious principles, her party before people, and platitudes before policy. Any and all common sense conservatives want more meat on the bone. I was personally shocked that most media outlets say she won that debate. About there quarters of the way through, it was clear that Alison was under her skin. She nearly broke.

Now we have four years to witness the very best of the southern bible belt and Link Byfield. Their credibility will be declared MIA within 12 months.

Darcy: excellent observations. I hope everyone will remember there are “common sense conservatives” living in southern Alberta too. We were just outnumbered by those who don’t read, or only read the Sun (pretty much the same thing). We’re mortified to be represented this way, but wait until after four years of excellent governance under Alison Redford.
I can’t wait to see how Danielle copes in the leg, if she shows up. Seems since her concession last night she’s entered the witness protection program.

And Dave – how long until we start predicting the cabinet?

Best news from the election?

Ted Morton lost! Sadly, he lost to a WRP (Wingnut Revenge Party) candidate rather than a more sensible alternative but he did, in fact, lose. 🙂

Oh, and notwithstanding the collapse of the Liberal vote (strategic voting perhaps), the Calgary and Edmonton Liberal caucuses are larger than the Calgary and Edmonton WRP caucus. That has to sting a lot for Smith, Flanagan et al.

Your provided a lot more balanced reporting then some of the major media outlets (especially Sun News). You got your predictions wrong, but in fairness so did everyone.

I, too, was misled by all those polls. However, I was right about one thing – the strong showing by Dave Hancock in his riding. Not sure, but I think he won by the widest margin of any PC elected this time.

Appreciate your comments Tom – same where i live. who can fathom voters – the least competent candidate in the forum here was the one that got in – a wildrose dude with NO experience, who bumbled his way through his cheat sheet during the forum. On the other hand, the three candidates that were so knowledgeable and obviously dedicated and honorable, got the least votes. The PC got not quite as many as the wildrose. But this is not unusal in Lacombe-Ponoka riding – they seem to vote in the least competent person every election. Prins, who saw nothing wrong with keeping $1500 a month for doing nothing, was the last PC guy here. Not sure what motivates people here to vote the way they do. It is so goofy it is almost hilarious.

Should the two pastors have been removed (or better yet their nominations not been approved in the first place)? The answer depends on how much value you place on freedom of speech – not just the freedom to speak in a manner and with the opinions that you, yourself, have determined as being “right and proper”. True freedom of speech allows for all opinions – even if they disagree with yours. If their opinions are far off those of society – they simply will not get anywhere in politics nor will they be taken seriously other than in their own little community. The suckers in all of this are the voters who fell for the PCs/the medias’ incessant hammering on this issue and applied it right across the province when it was really only the business of the two pastors’ ridings. To many voters fell big time for the PC “boogie man” attack ads. Now watch the Human Rights Commissions/Tribunals further erode freedom of speech and allow only what is considered proper by the ruling elite class, who of course, know what is best. Then look in the mirror and feel proud that you contributed to the Redford Progressive win.

Really Gordon? You are confusing the respect of Albertans for your right to believe whatever you want with respect for what you believe. You might also consider that many Albertans believe in “separation of Church and state” and when a person’s belief begets hateful speech – it should be stricken.

Sorry my fingers got carried away
I meant. Democracy is messy, but I hope not inconvenient
Loved the posts and the comments dave

I’m really happy that extremist Richard Jones went down.

It is weird that Danielle Smith ran on a very similar fiscal platform to that of Lawrence Decore in 1993, yet Liberals were scared this time….oh Liberals, if you would have avoided the whole strategic vote you would have held the balance of power….

I was at the forefront of the election here in Red Deer, Alberta, a part of the province which quite frankly a lot of the posters to this discussion know very little about.
Yes, there was a last minute switch back to the P.C.’s on the last weekend by people afraid of the Wildrose. We noticed it in our canvassing.
Yes, in the parts of Central Alberta outside the City of Red Deer, the deep anger against the P.C.
continued and the ridings all went WildRose.
Despite, some really good local candidates, the Alberta Party did not resonate at all. Maybe those active in the organization know what the Party is all about, but the general public certainly didn’t get it.
And no, Raj Sherman was not considered a “joke” or an “incompetant” here. Lots of people liked him or at least respected him for standing up for what he believed in. The biggest problem for the Liberals was starting with very little organization. That collapse of the nuts and bolts of the organization happened long before Sherman and Redford were elected leaders of their respective parties. A lot happened when a number of talented, well meaning people decided to try the Alberta Party experiment (see above).
Now we will have to see if Redford can really pull her party to the centre left where she sits, and can overcome the inertia of decades of entitlement and “we know best”. Certainly the crowing of many of them that “we pulled off another one of our miracles” does not bode well for a true reform of the Party.

I heard an interview on CBC radio with Premier Redford today. She stated (and I paraphrase)that the tide turned for the Tories after the debate (and I assume that she means that she wooed many voters as a result of her debate performance) and that the strategic vote did not play any role in the election outcome. Really Premier Redford? While no one will truly know to what extent the strategic vote played in the Tory majority, I think we all know that it played some role. The fact that Premier Redford won’t acknowledge that, but rather is attributing the outcome to her performance during the debate, does not bode well for her promise that we are going to see a new PC party. It seems to me that, just one day after the election, we still have the same arrogant and self-entitled PC party. (P.S. to Jon A : I am not a Wildrose supporter.)

I think of a couple of key things that were a huge factor. One was that Alison appealed to the unions again just like she did in the leadership campaign.
There were huge volumes of emails going around to the Health Services Union members and also the teachers union members. They were being told they were going to lose their jobs if the Wildrose got in. An xray technician showed an email from the union stating that. Last election it was that municipalities would get no funding if they did not vote PC. So the fearmongering was effective. Also she swayed votes with things like $500 teacher credits. I do believe the 2 WR candidates hurt the chances, but is Ted Morton exempt. I also find it ironic that in a hypocritical way the PC’s complained about the negative tone, when they were the first to gripe about Danielle and continue it on through the campaign. I also will be interested to see if the Premier will work with the opposition who the PEOPLE of ALBERTA elected, or will disregard them like she said -that “I can’t work with the Wildrose” I also hope she remembers this mandate she has only represents 44% of those who voted and if you add up the rest of the votes not for the PC’s there were more. A great deal of albertan’s do not support the direction the government is going, and it is obvious the rural people are in that group. Do they expect everything their way? No, but they do want to be respected, and even since being elected it is almost as if there is a attitude of resentment for people daring to speak out. It will lastly be interesting to see where all the additional unbudget monies will come from, considering that was what they originally promised to run on, and it hardly ever came up.

If there was some recognition of peoples concerns I think that things would look very positive for the PC’s in 4 years. But as long as those concerns are not addressed and disregarded then there will be continued anger to the government.
Perhaps the goal of the government is to have the cities be Progressive and the Rural areas be conservative. Certainly not a united province in this government at this point. I truly hope they understand the angst and do something to reach out to people with differing views and be inclusive and diverse like they profess, otherwise it is a recipe for contention and cynicism. Not meaning to be harsh, but there is real concern that cannot be disregarded just as sour grapes or whining. Those who would do so are guilty of what they say others are doing. Sorry for any offence, being honest is the best way to move forward.

I think the point about the unions of note is that they have always been left leaning and usually support the NDP. But twice now Alison has used them to carry the vote her way. Not typical conservative behavior. It is a true fact as I saw the email personally to the HSAA. But with 90,000 people yes the unions can be tide turners, especially if some are told incorrectly they will lose their jobs by voting a certain way. As for corporations, the just released figures show the PC Party with far more corporate donations than any party.

I don’t disagree with the concern that WR was lagging in Edmonton. It appears they were staking the win on Rural and Calgary. My concerns is that the PC’s think they have this MANDATE and the reality is they almost lost the government over it, and the only reason they did not was they scared the electorate into voting for them over WR. It was not fought on issues. At least the NDP and Libs had some platforms and fought on them. (other than Raj going off for a brief moment.) Just wish the PC’s would ditch the arrogance and actually listen to the people. But as Alison said, it is not about ideology. She said if elected it is there job to lead and then account for it in 4 years. The great loss is representation of the people and from the people to work to a common good, rather than by a select few who feel they know best.

We in the south of Alberta lost 3 hard working MLA’s, Morton Doerkson and Berger, through the dirty contortions of a sub-successful lawyer, his puppet masters in the WRP, and unread huge lease land holders, they ran a successful stampede, of the entitled to titles. The land holders get huge subsidies through cheap grazing rates and exploration and mineral extraction , this is an annual windfall to most of them, and any changes to land use, “made them mad”, they didn’t or couldn’t read the bills to see it changed very little, they will got more compensation for land use, and better representation in the courts, but for a lot of those people, that was like grade 5, hard to understand. We have one large lease land holder in southern Alberta who has around 400 wells on his lease land, he has the hardship of toting those cheques to the bank every year, He needs government assistance for that to I’m sure.

It is Ron Hinman today who is accusing the PC’s of a “fear and smear” campaigne by the Tories.

Excuse me? What province do you live in Hinman? I heard Alsion Redford say once that she was frightened about the type of Alberta where people would die in lakes of fire.

The Wildrose feared and smeared themselves as Smith mentioned post election about the Wildrose’s self inflicted wounds. American style BS coming out of your mouth is not what we need here. So glad this guy lost his seat, but still happy to have healthy opposition in the legislature.

Bartinsky: if Keith Wilson was saying anything not right. On land bills, why did the govt not sue him to stop? Maybe because he was right, please stop yelling about landowners and grazing lease holders getting big cheques. They Psy to hold those leases,t
And there is a myriad of stewardship regulations that they must do – like fire suppression, weed control ( usually brought onto property by recreational its, they fence, they manage the grasslands thru grazing ( look at conservation areas that are not grazed- it is a mess- grass needs to be grazed, so the lease holder deaf to is maintaining the grasslands like the herds of buffalo and bison in the past), they also provide management for biodiversity. Anytime you want to contribute, I have a position on my fencing crew- just takes about 20 days and only 33 miles of internal and external fencing checks. Oh and it is inaccessible by road, so hope you can walk uphill or ride a horse

So please know your facts

With regard to land bills or pipelines or national energy strategy, please go read the website for Canadian Energy Strategy. That will get your. Heart racing!

And then maybe you can read about Potatogate – public land sold to large japanese firm. Wonder why there was an outcry from braziers? Think it was about the biodiversity of the
L- such as how not to plw under the burrowing owl? How to maintain antelope terrain. Let us than
A hundred years of ranching for the landscapes in Alberta, and when you eat tonite, say thanks to a farmer. The one you call dumb just provided your dinner

Nuffield said

Let us go build Alberta together. We can diverse opinions.
And thank goodness for that. I do know of a country that has groupthink – you wouldn’t
Not be happy there.

I bought it.
Actually he did not need a job – he was asked by the law society to write a summary of the new land bills cause of his expertise. The law society does this whenever new legislation appears
He just could not believe what he was reading.

And although I bought and own my own land, many of my friends are braziers. And what is your point about land being handed down- Are you not glad that those many visionaries kept the beautiful landscape of Alberta.
Besides who else would care for it? The latte crowd? The recreationist? The govt ( go see some non grazed land) ? You? Public land does come up for sale and you can buy it. Or leases go up for sale- you could compete for that too!

I have not figured out your problem with land- there is some beautiful ranches for sale right now and some large blocks of lease land up for grabs. Are you looking at those opportunities?

@RuralGal – If you could please post a picture of yourself I know hundreds of thousands of Albertans would appreciate it because it could put a real face to what it was that a majority of Albertans voted against. Photo or not, I look forward to your posts about the war on Christmas.

@Chris P.

Not all Liberals fell for the Alison Redford spiel of saving Alberta, however some did and so did NDP and so did Wildrose supporters fearful of the Firewall which fell flat when Stephen Harper tried it.

I can not believe Alison Redford became the saviour for goodness sake the PC party needs to be taken out and I don’t care if the Dalia Lama leads it.

Liberals won the highest of centrist left votes–so why should they disolve?

I find that when you reduce arguments to name calling and unreasonable dialogue, it says more about you than me.
I want what is best for Albertans ( all Albertans), and I have based my votes and discussions on reading from many sources, and diversity of people. Interestingly, I suspect’ my range of contacts with folks is very large and diverse compared to most.
So although I will not post a picture, I will continue to try and be reasonable and try and understand other ‘s rational thoughts. That is what is fun about diversity- a diversity of opinions often leads to much better compromises and solutions.
So agree or disagree me, I will question your opinions, but I will not disrespect them.