Alberta Politics

new leger marketing survey shows tories in the lead, by a long-shot.

A new survey by Leger Marketing released today shows Alberta’s governing Tories with a huge lead in voter support over the opposition parties. The results of this survey contradict results from a Forum Research survey released earlier this week showing the Wildrose Party closing in on the PCs.

Here are the province-wide results from the Leger Marketing survey:

Progressive Conservative: 53%
Wildrose: 16%
NDP: 13%
Liberal: 11%

These numbers are similar to results found by surveys conducted by Environics, Angus Reid, and Lethbridge College during the final months of 2011.

12 replies on “new leger marketing survey shows tories in the lead, by a long-shot.”

Odd, that all the WRP internet troll(er)s have nothing to say this morning. They were all over the Forum poll yesterday. I guess it’s hard to keep up a brave face when every reputable polling company, using scientific methodology, shows completely different numbers than a company owned by a friend of Danielle using questionable polling methods. Even worse knowing your support is spread all over the place, while the NDs have concentrated support and are likely to form the Official Opposition. That’s gotta hurt.

I’m not willing to trash Forum or any other pollster just yet. Remember that Forum was the first pollster to catch the NDP wave in Quebec in the federal election.

I will say that looking at the forum press release, it does appear they undersampled Calgary voters, but if they did, it likely means the race is even tighter.

What would be signifigant would be to look at ‘likely’ voters, vs everyone. In a province with turnouts at the 50 percent level, that matters.

For a political blogger Daveberta doesn’t know to much about Alberta political history

Quote from National Post

“Part of the problem is that Wildrose — formed largely as a reaction to Premier Ed Stelmach — does not have the former premier to kick around anymore. “Alison Redford poses a different challenge to the Wildrose alliance, you don’t get that kind of gut response from people who really had a distaste for Ed Stelmach, especially in Calgary” – daveberta

The Party was registered on October 25, 2002 and formed while Alberta was still basking in the glow of Ralph’s World long before Ed Stelmach was ever Premier. The Party has contested two general elections, three by-elections one Senator-in-waiting election.

Maybe the Wildrose hasn’t been around for 107 years like the Alberta Liberal party, but I can guarantee that because Redford is Premier that won’t cause a hard time for the Wildrose to exist.

First of all, polls conducted by so called “random” numbers is dubious. How random, are the pollsters calling “random” numbers in staunch PC ridings? Any polls done should be done by pollsters outside of Alberta, to make them TRULY independent and truly random. A recent poll taking by Forum Research put the Tories at 38% and Wildrose at 29%, and this is NOT from Alberta, nothing to do with the AB establishment, so a smart person would take that as being a more of a reality based number.

Dave C, as a smart guy, you know where I am coming from. The polls before elections, appear to try to skew the public’s perception and voting style to biase their vote towards PC.

Most open minded people would recognize the wisdom of not giving too much credence to pollsters from AB who have Tory allengiances. There is a certain inherent bias factor that you can assume.

You can’t trust pollsters in AB working for the establishment, one way or another to be truly independent. Why don’t we hire a pollster from outside Alberta for once, and let them call 900 random households. i guarantee you, results may not be the same, as indicated by an outside and independent Forum Research from Toronto.

Quit drinking the Kook Aid Bob, sorry, I mean Kool-Aid.

What this poll doesn’t measure is intensity of feelings. And from what we’re getting at the door and around the water cooler, the best the PCs have is indifference but WA supporters are deeply motivated to vote. Let’s hope the PCs keep reading your blog so they can be complacent about their support!

@be realistic dave

I can’t put words in his mouth, but I’m pretty sure Dave’s talking about the party in its current incarnation. The Alberta Alliance and Wildrose parties merged in 2008 under the name Wildrose Alliance, then recently changed its name to Wildrose.

Since we’re talking about Alberta political history, and all….

Okay, first of all, I retract what I said about Forum Research – I assumed they were Abingdon Research. Would be interesting to know, though, who did the actual fieldwork, as polling companies often contract out work when they have no local facilities/staff (and yes, I know there is such a thing as long-distance). So, I withdraw the remark and apologize for offending the apparently delicate sensibilities of “The Invisible Hand” and anyone else. I still question the methodology of auto-dialer push-button polling, as do most reputable pollsters. As for the stuff above about choosing outside polling firms, Leger is headquartered in Montreal, Angus Reid is headquartered in Vancouver, Environics is headquartered in Toronto. all of them show similar numbers. Finally, Faron Ellis, who is the only pollster headquartered in Alberta and who, I think we can all agree, is not tied to the “establishment” showed the PCs with a greater than 30% spread over the WRP in his last poll. These are (with the exception of Angus Reid, which does online polling, which I also think is marginally useful) traditional phone surveys.

@Taras (The Lethbridge polysci guy?)

The merger was an absorption of an unregistered party by the Alberta Alliance. Not a new registration. Elections Alberta records it as a record of name change in the 2008 Annual general report.

Its still the same party, updated name and logo.

Elections are determined and governments are elected based upon a constituency by constituency vote. While polls are a guide and a generic reflection of some people expressing their opinion and not necessarily a vote on election day, the GOTV is prime.
Secondly a significant number of constituencies have changed demographically, structurally and in composition.
Several MLA’s were elected in constituencies by vote splitting and opposition party fragmentation.
The Wildrose party is a consolidation of fiscal and social conservative voters that voted Reform/Alliance. Some other conservative parties like the Separation party may field candidates. And the next eleaction will be affected by a different Reformatory entity.
The upstart EverGreen party has not been a factor yet. And they will be a factor to consider when evaluating opposition fragmentation constituency by constituency.
And yes the election of Alison Redford by progressive conservatives creates a conundrum for blue.grits and red.tories.

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