Hundreds of supporters of the long-governing Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta will gather in Red Deer on November 22 and 23, 2013 to attend to the business of their annual general meeting and conduct a review of Premier Alison Redford leadership.
Why does a leader who nineteen months ago led her party to its 12th consecutive electoral victory have to face a leadership review?
Because it’s mandatory.
Article 15.1 of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta constitution states “At the second Annual General Meeting of the Association following a Provincial General Election where the Party forms the Government or at the first Annual General Meeting of the Association following a Provincial General Election where the Party does not form the Government, a secret ballot on leadership review shall be held.”
Who gets to vote?
Members in good standing of the PC Party and duly registered delegates who fall into one of the following categories:
– members of the PC Party Board of Directors
– 15 delegates from each of the 87 PC Party constituency associations (which must include a minimum of 3 youth delegates between the ages of 14 and the end of the calendar year in which they reach 26 years old)
– 20 youth delegates appointed by the Progressive Conservative Youth of Alberta, and 2 youth delegates who are full-time students from every accredited post-secondary education institution on which a PC campus club exists,
– current and past PC Members of the Legislative Assembly,
– PC candidates nominated to run in an upcoming provincial election,
– past presidents of the PC Party,
– 5 directors and up to 30 deputy directors of the PC Alberta Fund,
– PC Senators and Senators-in-Waiting,
– Conservative Party of Canada Members of Parliament from Alberta.
Why are Conservative Party of Canada MPs invited to vote in the leadership review?
This appears to be a constitutional remnant of a time when the provincial PC Party was officially tied to Progressive Conservative Party of Canada. The federal PC Party merged with the Canadian Alliance in 2003 to create the Conservative Party of Canada.
At the PC Party’s 2012 annual general meeting, delegates voted on a constitutional amendment to remove the automatic privileges of federal Conservative Party MPs and party activists at participate in provincial PC annual meetings. While the two parties have unofficial connections, friction over federal Conservative support of the Wildrose Party in the last election created a rift between the two parties. The amendment was partially approved, with Conservative MPs still being automatically invited to attend but the automatic invitation for federal Conservative riding associations to each send 15 delegates to the PC Party AGM was removed from the constitution.
What are delegates being asked to vote on?
Article 15.4 of the PC Party constitution states that the ballot shall contain the question: “Do you wish a Provincial Leadership Election to be called?”
What happens if delegates vote for a leadership review?
If a majority of ballots are marked in the affirmative, the PC Party Board of Directors shall proceed to call a provincial leadership election.
How would a new leader be chosen?
According to Article 14 of the PC Party constitution, a leadership election must be held not sooner than four months and not later than six months from the date of the leadership review.
Members in good standing of the PC Party who are Canadian citizens, at least 14 years of age and residents of Alberta for at least 6 consecutive months immediately prior to the leadership election are eligible to vote.
When the leadership election is held, the candidate who receives more than half the total valid ballots cast shall be declared the leader. If no candidate receives a majority of votes on the first ballot, a second ballot will be held with the two candidates who received the most votes. This is different from previous PC leadership votes where the three candidates with the most votes moved the the second ballot. This created situations where, in 1992, 2006, and 2011, the candidate with the most votes on the first ballot did not win on the second ballot.
Will Ms. Redford survive the leadership review?
While Ms. Redford has her detractors in her party and caucus, I believe the prospect of a majority of delegates voting for a formal leadership race is unlikely. As far as I am aware, no leader of a major Canadian political party has earned less than a majority vote in an internal leadership review (please correct me if I am wrong). But if a leadership race is called for, it would certainly be interesting to see if Ms. Redford followed her in the footsteps political mentor, Joe Clark, in contesting a leadership race.
After more than 40 years as the governing party in Alberta, the PC Party has proven its ruthlessness towards its leaders. Remember that even Premier Ed Stelmach won a resoundingly strong endorsement from his party membership after the 2008 election. But when the party establishment sensed his leadership could hurt the party’s electoral fortunes, he was challenged from within and he quickly announced his departure in 2011. Premier Ralph Klein‘s 13 year tenure as leader of the PC Party came to an abrupt end when he received a shockingly low 55.4% support in that party’s 2006 leadership review. And in 1992, Premier Don Getty chose retirement before he was forced to face any large scale internal dissent in his party and caucus ranks.
A weak endorsement of the current leadership would certainly be good news for the tire kickers in the PC Party who would like to see Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk or Finance Minister Doug Horner have an opportunity to lead. But if delegates endorse the current leadership, as most political watchers are predicting, the potential challengers may have to cool their heels for at least the next few years.