Category: Mary MacDonald

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James Ford Laurie Hawn Lewis Cardinal Linda Duncan Mary MacDonald Peter Goldring Rahim Jaffer Ray Martin Ryan Hastman Tim Uppal

canada’s 2008 federal election: 365 days later.

One year ago today, just over 50% of Albertans made their way to the polls to vote in the 2008 Canadian Federal Election. While just over two years since the previous election, last October saw some Edmontonians (and Strathconans) paint their electoral map with a little more diversity of colours (even if it only resulted in one actual change in electoral representation). A year out, here is a look at some of the more interesting ridings from 2008 and what the electoral races may shape up to look like in the next election.

Edmonton-Centre

2008 results
Laurie Hawn, C – 22,634 (49%)
Jim Wachowich, Lib – 12,661 (27.4%)
Donna Martyn, NDP – 6,912 (15%)
David Parker, G – 3,746 (8.1%)
Peggy Morton, ML – 203 (0.4%)

I expected closer results in this riding during the last election, but if only one thing were clear about the 2008 election, it is that the Liberals under Stephane Dion had zero momentum in western Canada. After narrowly defeating Liberal MP Anne McLellan in 2006, a low voter turnout allowed Conservative Laurie Hawn to widen his margin of victory into a comfortable lead in 2008 when facing off against consumer advocate and Liberal candidate Jim Wachowich (the total voter turnout dropped by over eleven thousand votes and over 9,000 Liberal voters stayed home, dropping that party’s support by over 9,000 votes between 2006 and 2008).

This riding has been the focus of both Reform/Canadian Alliance/Conservative and Liberal resources since 1993 and the prospect of three strong candidates in the next election could make this Edmonton riding a centre of attention once again. Hawn is a strong campaigner, but he is now facing two hard working challengers who have already began campaigning door-to-door. Liberal Mary MacDonald is a lawyer, Ph.D., former Deputy Chief of Staff to McLellan, and former provincial Liberal candidate. New Democrat Lewis Cardinal is an educator, activist, and former candidate for City Council. Some people will inevitably bemoan the potential for vote-splitting between the two main challengers, but I am looking forward to watching three strong candidates make this riding competitive in the next election. If Edmonton-Centre becomes home to a serious three-way race, I would wager that anything could happen.

Edmonton-East

2008 results
Peter Goldring, C – 21,487 (51.3%)
Ray Martin, NDP – 13,318 (31.8%)
Stephanie Laskoski, Lib – 4,578 (10.9%)
Trey Capnerhurst, G 2,488 (5.9%)

This riding could be one to watch in the next election. With the collapse of the Liberal-vote in 2008 (likely caused by the previously mentioned Dion-factor and the last minute withdrawal of candidate Jim Jacuta), former MLA Ray Martin was able to capitalize and boost the NDP vote by 13% to a solid second place finish. The riding has been represented by MP Peter Goldring since 1997, but the eclectic collection of citizens in this riding supported NDP MP Ross Harvey in 1988 and Liberal MP Judy Bethel in 1993.

Although Goldring has perfected the art of invisibility as a backbench MP, he still hold an incumbency advantage and I wouldn’t underestimate Martin, who has once again been nominated as the NDP candidate in the next election. A seasoned elections veteran, Martin’s political drive has led him to be elected the MLA for Edmonton-Norwood from 1982 to 1993, Edmonton Public Schools Trustee from 2001 to 2004, MLA for Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview from 2004 to 2008, and Leader of Alberta’s Official Opposition from 1986 to 1993. I have also heard that along with Edmonton-Strathcona, the NDP are planning to focus much of their resources on this riding, which was their second strongest Alberta finish in 2008.

Edmonton-Sherwood Park

2008 results
Tim Uppal, C – 17,628 (35.8%)
James Ford, Ind – 15,960 (32.4%)
Brian LaBelle, NDP – 6,339 (12.8%)
Rick Szostak, Lib – 5,575 (11.3%)
Nina Erfani, G – 3,678 (7.4%)

In 2008, Independent conservative James Ford rode a strong wave of Strathcona County-concentrated discontent after a shady Conservative nomination process chose former Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont candidate Tim Uppal over local favorite Jacquie Fenske.

Ford’s strength led this riding to the second closest results in the province, but I wonder whether a second run by Ford would result in the same level of discontent. This has been a strong conservative riding and includes areas that are represented on a provincial level by Premier Ed Stelmach and Finance Minister Iris Evans. If the voters in this riding are now less offended by the internal party shenanigans than they were a year ago, I would imagine that they will return to a traditional Conservative voting pattern.

Edmonton-Strathcona


2008 results
Linda Duncan, NDP – 20,103 (42.5%)
Rahim Jaffer, Con – 19,640 (41.6%)
Claudette Roy, Lib – 4,279 (9%)
Jane Thrall, Grn – 3,040 (6.4%)
Kevan Hunter, ML – 147 (0.3%)

A year ago today, NDP candidate Linda Duncan edged out long-time Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer in a close election race. Initially planning a comeback, Jaffer is now dealing with some personal issues in Ontario and the Conservatives have nominated Ottawa insider Ryan Hastman as their standard bearer. Both candidates and their teams have been busy canvassing door-to-door over the summer months in this extremely geo-politically polarized riding (as you can see by the poll results from the map above).

Since the last election, a number of people have noted to me that Duncan has become somewhat of a ghost in Edmonton. I will give Duncan the benifit of a doubt that she is still mounting the learning curve that all elected officials face during their first couple years in office, but I am sure that Hastman’s campaign will focus on this point.

Expect a flood of resources and high-profile MP visits to the riding from both the NDP and Conservatives to continue before the next election (NDP leader Jack Layton has visited this riding at least 4-5 times since October 2008). The collapse of the Liberal vote helped vault Duncan to her victory, but it shouldn’t be underestimated how strong her organization and her campaign momentum were in the last election. If she is successful in her next election, she will be the first NDP MP to be re-elected in Alberta’s history. The Liberals have yet to announce a candidate in this riding, but Michael Ignatieff spent the Canada Day long weekend in the riding.

(Thanks to Jordan C. for the map)

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Debby Carlson Edmonton Centre Grant Mitchell Mary MacDonald Ralph Goodale

recap: ralph goodale visits edmonton-centre.

Around 100 Liberal supporters packed the Westmount Community League Hall last night to hear Saskatchewan MP Ralph Goodale speak. Goodale is in Edmonton this week helping shore up support for Edmonton-Centre Liberal candidate Mary MacDonald. He is a talented stump speaker, which makes it easy to understand how he has been able to win elections in Saskatchewan for seven terms, but even after his sales pitch I’m still unconvinced that Canadians need to rush to the polls anytime soon.

Edm Centre Candidate Mary MacDonaldRalph Goodale and Daveberta

I had a chance to speak with Goodale after his speech (see the picture of Goodale and the scruffy looking blogger above) and was generally impressed by what he had to say. I was dismayed by his support of the Carbon Capture Scheme, but he redeemed himself when we discussed the need for a national R& D and Innovation strategy for Canada (which he supports).
I also had a chance have a conversation about social media with Senator Grant Mitchell, who can now be found on twitter at @SenMitchell. Mitchell and former Edmonton-Ellerslie MLA Debby Carlson are heading up Liberals’ central campaign in Edmonton in preparation for an upcoming federal election.

(Thanks to Annet Swart for emailing me the picture that she snapped of Goodale and I last night)

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Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Danielle Smith Diane Colley-Urquhart Mark Dyrholm Mary MacDonald Ralph Goodale Susan Stratton

alberta red, green, and blue.

Green endorses Glenmore Liberal: Former Alberta Greens Vice-President & candidate Susan Stratton has endorsed Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts in the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore, which is being held on September 14.

“I’m not a Liberal; I’m a Green, but our first job as opposition voters is to stand together to defeat the Conservatives. Only Avalon Roberts can do that. She’s a quality candidate who won nearly eight times more votes than either the Greens or New Democrats in last year’s general election.”

The Greens aren’t running a candidate in this by-election and are in the process of being de-registered by Elections Alberta. On another Calgary-Glenmore related note, Jeremy at PolitiCalgary has leveled some strong criticisms of PC candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart, suggesting that she ‘needs to move away from the same political game.‘

Wildrose Leadership Forums: The Wildrose Alliance will be holding leadership forums in Grande Prairie (September 8), Edmonton (September 10), Calgary (September 16), Lethbridge (September 17), and Red Deer (September 23). Candidates for the leadership of the right-wing party include Danielle Smith, Mark Dyrholm, and Jeff Willerton. I am planning to check out the September 10 forum in Edmonton.

Goodale in Edmonton: Wascana Liberal MP Ralph Goodale is in Alberta today and will be speaking at a Town Hall meeting in Edmonton-Centre, no doubt to help shore up support for candidate Mary MacDonald. The Town Hall will be held from 8:00pm to 9:00pm at the Westmount Community League.

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Auditor General Calgary-Egmont Fred Dunn Jennifer Pollock Jonathan Denis Lewis Cardinal Mary MacDonald Mel Knight Peter Lougheed Ray Martin Richard Nixon Rick Szostak

dunn’s done. now… more than ever.

Dunn’s done. Auditor General Fred Dunn has announced that he will be stepping down in February 2010.

In 2007, Dunn singled out Energy Minister Mel Knight and the Department of Energy for failing to collect billions of dollars in resource revenues over the past 15 years. In 2009, Dunn’s office announced the delay or cancellation of 27 out of 80 planned system and financial audits due to lack of financial resources. At the time, Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis was quoted as justifing the lack of funding to the Auditor General by defending the one-year MLA pay freeze:

“Realistically everybody would like more money, I would like more money, but the reality is we froze our pay cheques this year. This is the first time in 15 years we froze our pay cheques. And similarly we don’t want to be giving extra money to departments where that’s not required.”

Now… more than ever. His ideas may now be marginalized within the party he led to office 38 years ago, but the now Stelmach-led PC Party is seeking to revive fond memories of Peter Lougheed‘s victory over Harry Strom‘s Social Credit Party. The slogan for the November 6-7, 2009 PC leadership review, ‘Now… more than ever,’ appears to be an attempt to remind older supporters of their party’s exciting 1971 slogan: ‘Now!‘ Or maybe I’m wrong and the PCs are actually trying to channel Richard Nixon….


Who’s ready for a federal election? With the exception voters in a couple of ridings, Albertans are going to be far off the political radar in any upcoming federal election. While the Conservatives have already nominated candidates in all 28 ridings, the Liberals and NDP have only officially nominated a couple candidates each (Liberals: Jennifer Pollock in Calgary-West, Mary MacDonald in Edmonton-Centre, Rick Szostak in Edmonton-Sherwood Park. NDP: Lewis Cardinal in Edmonton-Centre and Ray Martin in Edmonton-East). With an election seemingly imminent, expect to hear a lot from the New Obama Party when they hold their caucus retreat in Edmonton in a couple of weeks.

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Lewis Cardinal Mary MacDonald Ray Martin

liberal & ndp nominations in edmonton-centre and edmonton-east.

Three federal candidate nominations have been scheduled in Edmonton for the last week of July. It looks like they will all end up in acclamation.

Edmonton-Centre Liberal nomination meeting
July 27, Westmount Community Hall
(I will post the time when I get confirmation)
Candidate: Mary MacDonald

Edmonton-Centre/Edmonton-East NDP joint nomination meeting
July 28, Alberta Avenue Community Centre, 6:30pm
Candidates:
Edmonton-Centre: Lewis Cardinal
Edmonton-East: Ray Martin

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Jim Wachowich Laurie Hawn Lewis Cardinal Mary MacDonald

former candidate jim wachowich speaks about edmonton-centre.


After reading a recent blog post by Ken Chapman, I took the opportunity to speak with former Edmonton-Centre Liberal candidate and consumer advocate lawyer Jim Wachowich over the phone yesterday. During the call, Wachowich confirmed the rumours that he will not be seeking the Liberal candidacy in Edmonton-Centre for the next election.

Wachowich explained that for personal, family, and professional reasons, it would have been difficult to dedicate the time and resources to run in an election that could occur at any time. Despite the legislated fixed-election date law in Canada, a minority Parliament and constant games of political brinkmanship in Ottawa have made snap elections a reality that potential candidates from all parties now face.

Following the June 30 Town Hall meeting that drew over 600 Edmontonians, Wachowich said he was excited about a renewed energy that Michael Ignatieff’s leadership has brought to the Liberal Party of Canada.

Describing the challenges facing the Edmonton-Centre Liberals, Wachowich suggested that “fatigue and political disinterest” as well as doubt about Stephane Dion‘s leadership and the Green Shift created difficult challenges for his campaign during the last election. The Liberals have always faced uphill battles in electing Members of Parliament in Alberta, but Wachowich pointed out “there is a strong base of Liberal support in Edmonton-Centre.” He plans to support whoever is nominated as the Liberal candidate (the first candidate openly campaigning for the nomination is Lawyer, Political Science Ph.D., and Anne McLellan‘s former Deputy Chief of Staff Mary MacDonald).

When asked how the entry of NDP nomination candidate Lewis Cardinal could affect the race, Wachowich said he believed that Cardinal’s candidacy “would make the race all the more interesting” and that having good candidates from all parties could increase the voter interest and turnout in the next election. Voter turnout in Edmonton-Centre dropped from 64% in 2006 to just over 50% in 2008, which Wachowich speculated hurt his campaign on Election Day.

As our conversation wrapped up, Wachowich emphasized the need for stronger representation for the citizens of Edmonton-Centre in Ottawa, “I don’t know where [Conservative MP] Laurie Hawn stands, because he doesn’t tell you.”

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Ben Henderson David Swann Hugh MacDonald Jim Wachowich Laurie Blakeman Mary MacDonald Michael Ignatieff

michael ignatieff’s town hall in edmonton.

Yesterday may have felt like a normal June 30 to most Edmontonians, but unbeknownst to most citizens (but not all ) Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff was in the Provincial Capital City taking part in an open Town Hall meeting at the Santa Maria Goretti Community Centre .

The event was large in numbers, but the 600 person crowd felt subdued as they seemed more curious to hear what this Ignatieff fellow had to say, rather than to simply cheer the Liberal Party battle cry. The room was filled with party faithful and also attracted a good mix of interested non-partisans who were likely also just as curious to hear what Ignatieff had to say. Of course, the meeting attracted a number local political names such as former Liberal MP Anne McLellan , Liberal MLAs David Swann, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald, and City Councillor Ben Henderson, as well as Senators Tommy Banks, Grant Mitchell, and Claudette Tardif. Alex Abboud has a good review of the question and answer session, so I won’t duplicate his blog post.

While I don’t believe that anyone in the building (including Ignatieff) was under the impression that his presence alone would lead to Liberal Party gains in the next election, there did seem to be a positive energy that wasn’t evident during Stephane Dion‘s short tenure as Liberal leader. Of the Liberal activists I spoke to last night, they carried a renewed optimism, especially for the chances of winning over voters in ridings like Edmonton-Centre, Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont, and Edmonton-Strathcona.

Following Ignatieff’s time on stage, I had a good conversation with local lawyer Mary MacDonald, who is seeking the Liberal nomination in Edmonton-Centre. MacDonald, who’s previous electoral experience included placing a scant 58-votes behind NDP candidate Raj Pannu in 1997, was positive about her chances and was realistic about the hard work ahead of her. Over the course of the evening, a number of Liberals approached me to inquire if I was supporting former candidate Jim Wachowich, who according to Ken Chapman is no longer seeking the nod. Edmonton-Centre Liberals are expected to choose their candidate at a meeting in September 2009 (I have been told the date may be moved sooner).

From a practical politics perspective, the Liberals would be smart to put the Conservatives on the defensive in key urban ridings in western Canada. In Alberta, this would include focusing on ridings like Edmonton-Centre, Edmonton-East, Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont, Edmonton-Strathcona, Calgary-Centre, and Calgary-Centre North in order to force the Conservatives to focus funds and resources on ridings where they have become accustomed to taking voters for granted. After a dismal few elections in Alberta, the Liberals need to also focus on rebuilding their province-wide support, which fell from 22% in June 2004 to 11% in October 2008.

I may be labeled a crazy wing-nut traitor for not believing that the Liberal Party of Canada is secretly hatching a conspiracy to steal Alberta’s God-given oil (or building a Death Star behind the Moon), but I actually get the feeling that Ignatieff is bothered that his party has burned so many political bridges in western Canada. That said, the largely Ontario-based Liberal Caucus hasn’t done much to distill perceptions that it is biased against the politics and economics of western Canada.

My cynical views of Canadian federal politics may remain in place, and while I not yet convinced Michael Ignatieff would be a great Prime Minister for Canadians, I am convinced that he would probably be a decent and open-minded Prime Minister for Canadians. I remain open-minded and curious.

( Photo credit to Alex Abboud )

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