Category: 2008 Alberta Provincial Election

Well, I’m pretty glad I didn’t take any bets on last nights results.

So, what happened? Partisans and pundits can analyze this one to death, but I’m not sure it’s really that easy. In the end, the Tories got their vote out to get their 11th majority government since 1971. But with a 41% voter turnout it’s clear that none of the parties are connecting with Albertans on a meaningful level.

It’s hard to call a voter turnout of 41% anything but embarrassing.

It’s commonly said that elections are decided by those who show up, but with two consecutive elections with less than 50% turnout, are Albertans entering an era in which elections are decided by those who don’t show up? In Edmonton, seven constituencies saw voter turnout lower than 40% and only one had turnout (barely) over 50% (Edmonton-Whitemud). It seems pretty clear that not only are none of the parties really connecting with Albertans, but that Albertans are completely disengaged from the electoral process, which is very troubling.

I’m really wondering what were the 59% of Albertans who didn’t vote were doing yesterday that was more important than voting?

Here’s an overview of how the election turned out in Alberta’s three main political regions…

In Edmonton, welcome to 2001 + 2.

Ed Stelmach’s Tories have returned Edmonton to their 2001 win with the addition of Edmonton-Decore, Edmonton-Mill Woods, and Edmonton-Ellerslie (it’s +2 and not +3 because Edmonton lost a seat after the 2003 electoral redistribution).

I’ve always believed that Edmonton was competitive, but I didn’t believe that it would be this competitive. Along with Decore, Ellerslie, and Mill Woods, close races in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview, Edmonton-Calder, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-McClung, and Edmonton-Rutherford gave the Tories the large majority of the capital. The Tories swept all but five seats in Edmonton, leaving the capital city with an opposition of 5, the survivors being Alberta Liberals Kevin Taft in Edmonton-Riverview, Laurie Blakeman in Edmonton-Centre, and Hugh MacDonald in Edmonton-Gold Bar, and New Democrats Brian Mason in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood and Rachel Notley in Edmonton-Strathcona. Though most races in the capital city could be considered close, with abysmal turnout and lost support, both the Alberta Liberals and New Democrats will need to take a critical look at why they lost so much ground in their former stronghold of Edmonton.

New Edmotnon Tory faces of note include former School Board Trustee Janice Sarich and Emergency Room doctor Raj Sherman.

On a personal note, I am really disappointed to see three of the Legislature’s most effective MLAs lose their seats last night. I’m talking about Rick Miller in Edmonton-Rutherford, Mo Elsalhy in Edmonton-McClung, and David Eggen in Edmonton-Calder. I’ve had the opportunity to work with Rick, Mo, and David on a number of issues over the past few years and I think I would have a hard time finding harder working and more genuinely good spirited people under the dome. I’m sad to that they were defeated, but wish them good luck in the next stages of their lives. Take a break, but try not to go too far.

Calgary is an interesting one. The great Liberal surge that every one was talking about never really emerged, but interestingly the Liberals actually net-gained one seat inside Calgary. While holding the seats they gained in 2004 and losing Craig Cheffins in Calgary-Elbow, the Alberta Liberals elected Kent Hehr in Calgary-Buffalo and Darshan Kang in Calgary-McCall, bringing the total to 5 opposition MLAs in Calgary. This is an emerging dynamic that could be a sign of the new face of a politically competitive Calgary.

The Tories held their ground, but faced strong challenges in Calgary-Bow, Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Foothills, and Calgary-North Hill. The Tories also elected a swath of new MLAs including big names Teresa Woo-Paw and Alison Redford, while star candidate Arthur Kent was unable to unseat Dave Taylor in Calgary-Currie.

Also, Independent Robin Leech in Calgary-Montrose placed a very strong second against Tory Manmeet Bhullar. And after much hoopla, former-Tory Craig Chandler placed third in Calgary-Egmont behind Tory Jonathan Denis and Liberal Cathie Williams.

Lethbridge and wildcards

Not much has changed as Lethbridge remains split between the Tories and the Liberals. Bridget Pastoor held Lethbridge-East for the Liberals. Lethbridge-West went to the Tory Greg Weadick over Liberal Bal Boora.

In Cardston-Taber-Warner, Wildrose Alliance Leader Paul Hinman apparently lost his seat to Tory Broyce Jacobs by 39 votes. I’d expect a recount at this point, but only a reversal of the results could save Hinman’s leadership in his now seatless party.

For the Alberta Greens, their big hope in Lacombe-Ponoka wasn’t able to overcome Tory Ray Prins. In the end, Green Joe Anglin netted 22% of the vote to Prins 58%.

What’s next?

Well, congratulations to everyone who ran, volunteered, and voted in this election. Democracy only works if citizens participate, and we now have to figure out how to get that 59% of voters to opt-in to the democratic system (in its current or a different form).

Tomorrow, I’m going to be posting on what the results mean for each of Alberta’s political parties.

The polls have opened in Alberta’s 2008 Provincial election and I’m off to go and vote at my polling station at Allendale School in Edmonton-Strathcona. The polls will be open until 8:00 p.m. tonight, so make sure to get out and vote!

Find out where to vote here.

If you haven’t already, take a look at your local candidates here.

With the election polls opening in less than 8 hours, here’s a look at some of the Calgary races that I will be keeping an eye on after the polls close tomorrow night.

The big talk of the campaign has largely been “what’s happening in Calgary?” With the departure of Ralph Klein last year, Calgarians found themselves on the outside under Ed Stelmach‘s Tories, which as led to the real proposition that Alberta Liberal gains are on the horizon in this city (building on their three MLAs elected in 2004 and the election of Craig Cheffins in the June 2007 Calgary-Elbow by-election).

Though the Tories’ 37-year advantage in political organizing in Calgary shouldn’t be underestimated, the Alberta Liberals have probably put together their most impressive list of Calgary candidates since Harper Prowse in 1955 – in 2008 the list includes Kent Hehr, Beth Gignac, Mike Robinson, Cathie Williams, Greg Flanagan, Laura Shutiak, and Michael Embaie among others. This obviously doesn’t equal an automatic win for these candidates, but it does say a lot about the changing political environment in this city that a political party other than the ruling Tories were able to recruit strong local candidates.

Calgary becoming a competitive political environment on the provincial level is exciting, but I’m going to remain cautiously optimistic and wait for Calgarians to surprise me tomorrow.

Constituencies I will be keeping an eye on will be Calgary-Bow, Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Egmont, Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Fish Creek, Calgary-Foothills, Calgary-Glenmore, Calgary-McCall, Calgary-Montrose, Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-North Hill, Calgary-North West, Calgary-Varsity, and Calgary-West.

With the election polls opening in less than 8 hours, here’s a look at some of the races outside of Calgary and Edmonton that I will be keeping an eye on after the polls close tomorrow night.

Both Lethbridge-East and Lethbridge-West could be close tomorrow night. I’m giving Alberta Liberal MLA Bridget Pastoor the edge over Tory Jason Herasemluk in Lethbridge-East (Lethbridge-East has been held by the Liberals since 1993), but Lethbridge-West is a more open race with Tory MLA Clint Dunford’s retirement. Bal Boora and Greg Weadick have been duking it out in Lethbridge-West and it could go either way. Look for the Wildrose Alliance to potentially play the role of spoiler in these races.

I expect most of rural Alberta to stay coloured in various shades of blue tomorrow night, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t interesting races outside Edmonton, Calgary, and Lethbridge!

As I’ve mentioned before, I’m really looking forward to see how Alberta Green candidate Joe Anglin does in Lacombe-Ponoka against Tory Ray Prins. Anglin is a strong candidate and has excellent local name recognition. It would be great to see a Green be elected to the Alberta Legislature, and after Bill 46 and the AEUB spy scandal, Anglin would be a much stronger advocate for the region than backbencher Prins.

It would be nice to see Wildrose Alliance Leader Paul Hinman get re-elected in Cardston-Taber-Warner, but it could be close as Hinman is facing off against former Tory MLA Broyce Jacobs. Peace River and Dunvegan-Central Peace are on my radar for potential pickups for the Wildrose Alliance. If they are going to pick up seats, I think it’s likely that it will be in the northwest corner of Alberta rather than the south. A backlash against the proposed nuclear power plant in the Peace Country manifest itself into a win or a strong showing for the Wildrose Alliance in these two northwestern constituencies against what could be described as two weak cabinet ministers (Frank Oberle and Hector Goudreau).

Other potentially interesting races I’m going to be keeping an eye on include Red Deer-South, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, Medicine Hat, West Yellowhead, and Whitecourt-St. Anne.

With the election polls opening in less than 8 hours, here’s a look at some of the Edmonton and area races that I will be keeping an eye on after the polls close tomorrow night.

Over the course of the past 28 days, I’ve had many Tories tell me that they expect their party to gain a large number of seats in Edmonton in order to offset expected gains they expect Kevin Taft‘s Alberta Liberals to make in Calgary. The main argument from my Tory friends seems to be:

1) Because Ed Stelmach from Vegreville, Edmontonians will vote Conservative.
2) Because his name is “Ed,” Edmontonians will vote vote Conservative.
3) Because Ed Stelmach isn’t popular in Calgary, Edmontonians will vote Conservative.

I really shouldn’t have to explain why these are pretty weak arguments. Though I think that my Tory friends sounded a bit optimistic, I have no reason to believe that Edmonton is any less competitive than it has been in past elections – the capital city has had a competitive political environment on the provincial level since 1986 (with the exception of 1993).

Currently, the Alberta Liberals hold a plurality of Edmonton’s seats and though I can’t see them being at risk of losing much ground in Edmonton there are some obvious competitive races between the Liberals and Tories that could go to either party. My list of competitive races between the Liberals and Tories includes Edmonton-Castle Downs, Edmonton-Decore, Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Manning, Edmonton-Meadowlark, Edmonton-Mill Creek, Edmonton-Whitemud. In the Edmonton area, St. Albert, Sherwood Park, and Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert also look like they could be in play tomorrow night.

Edmonton is also the only place in Alberta where the New Democrats could be considered electorally relevant. Look for them to concentrate their energies on trying to hold on to their current four seats. Though I tend to believe that Edmonton-Calder, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, and Edmonton-Strathcona will stay New Democrat this go around, I believe that Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview is in play with both Alberta Liberal Dawit Isaac and Tory Tony Vandermeer running strong campaigns against Ray Martin. The New Democrats have pockets of support in other Edmonton constituencies where they could play the roll of spoiler in tight races between the Alberta Liberals and Tories, but I have a hard time seeing them build on the four seats they won in 2004.

Here’s a bit of comic relief for the last day of Alberta’s 2008 election campaign…

Enjoy…

I went to the Alberta Liberal rally today in front of Edmonton-Strathcona Alberta Liberal candidate Tim Vant’s campaign office on Whyte Avenue. Here’s a couple of pictures…