Coming Soon: A federal by-election in Calgary-Midnapore

Jason Kenney said last week that he will resign as the Member of Parliament for Calgary-Midnapore when the Progressive Conservative Party leadership campaign officially starts on October 1, 2016. He is expected to spend the summer months campaigning for the party leadership while presumably continuing to have access to MP resources and collecting his Ottawa salary and pension.

If Mr. Kenney does go on to win the leadership of the PC Party in March 2017, he may look for an opportunity to quickly become an MLA. If interim party leader Ric McIver were to resign as MLA for Calgary-Hays, he would create an opening for Mr. Kenney to enter the Legislature.

In return, Mr. McIver could potentially seek the federal Conservative nomination to run in the by-election to replace Mr. Kenney in Calgary-Midnapore. The Calgary-Hays constituency is inside the boundaries of the Calgary-Sheperd federal riding but was until 2015 partially in Calgary-Southeast, a federal riding represented by Mr. Kenney from 1997 until 2015.

Mr. McIver represented southeast Calgary as an Alderman from 2000 to 2012 and as an MLA since 2012. A jump into federal politics would be a natural fit. He would become one of the few Canadian politicians to have been elected at three orders of government and it would also give Mr. McIver an honourable path to bow out of provincial politics without seeking the party leadership for a second time.

Of note, Calgary-Hawkwood NDP MLA Michael Connolly was briefly nominated as the federal NDP candidate in Calgary-Midnapore before he decided to instead throw his hat into provincial politics before the 2015 election, which turned out to be a good choice. Mr. Connolly was elected as MLA in May 2015 and Mr. Kenney was re-elected in October 2015 with 70 percent of the vote.

A federal by-eleciton is expected to be called soon in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner federal riding and another will be held in the Calgary-Heritage riding after former Prime Minister Stephen Harper resigns as MP, which he is expected to do this summer.

In anticipation of the three by-elections, I am maintaining a special page to keep track of the three potential federal by-elections in Alberta.