results: alberta progressive conservative leadership first ballot.

Huge, huge thanks to you Dave for joining us for the Herald’s live chat this evening. Hope you can join us again Oct 1…

With the huge drop in voting at a time when the population of the province has been steadily increasing, Mar had best not interpret his numbers as being a strong mandate from Albertans to implement his own style of change. Not all of the drop is likely due to voter apathy. Orman’s supporters are probably going to the Wildorse – if in fact most of them are not already members. There are no longer closet bluer conservatives within the PCs – most of these will probably begin openly supporting the Wildrose as there is no more a split within the “big tent” PCs. There is not enough room in AB for two factions of bluer PCs so look for the Wildrose to grow. Not likely there is enough room in the Wildrose for Morton and Smith so this is going to be interesting. As well, PCs are likely to see bleeding to the Liberals at the next election (whenever Mar will have the guts to call it). Interesting times ahead.

I think Gary Mar may still be Dinning 2.0 . I just don’t see him having much growth potential beyond the #”s he got out yesterday. He bussed out huge #’s from his own communities, not sure there’s any more there than what he got.

I think the Morton and Orman supporters will see the right leaning centrist that is Doug Horner and help push him forward.

Progressives everywhere should buy memberships and vote for Alison Redford. If you ever wanted something closer to the Liberals or NDP in power, she’s your best chance for those sorts of policies. She’s also the PCs best shot at enduring as government. The general populace clearly wants some change and Redford’s the only one promising a real PC party shake up.

Horner or Redford, just don’t vote for “failed US policies & stolen money scandals” aka Gary Mar.

I’m surprised and pleased at how few Edmontonians outside of Whitemud and a few other seats bothered to vote for the new premier. While I know a fair number of people who would never vote Tory who joined and voted purely to vote against Ted Morton, and surely many others did the same, the total numbers who voted are small.

But while I agree with Gordon that the Tories will be vulnerable in many seats, their best defence to the left of them is the likely split of votes on the centre-left, which will be outspent by the right-wing parties by about 100 to 1. As the election proceeds, those who want to vote strategically–and yes, I know that many oppose strategic voting, so this is not aimed at you–will benefit by looking at changealberta.ca, and our estimation of the “winnable” progressive candidates in various ridings.

Today’s straw vote in the Journal:

The Alberta PC leadership race has been whittled down to three contenders. Who would you vote for?
Doug Horner 18.44 %
Gary Mar 28.55 %
Alison Redford 24.82 %
None of the above 28.19 %

This just shows that Mar will have very weak popularity with the public at large. While the card carrying membership may have their love affair with this win, almost 72% DID NOT want Mar.