A new Environics survey of 900 Albertans published by the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald paints a disappointing picture for anyone hoping for a political sea change in the upcoming provincial election. The survey shows decided support for Alberta’s political parties at:
Progressive Conservative 53.3%
Wildrose 16.1%
Liberal 10.9%
NDP 10.9%
Alberta Party 1.7%
With undecided voters distributed:
Progressive Conservative 54.2%
Wildrose 16.4%
Liberal 13.6%
NDP 13.6%
Alberta Party 2.1%
The survey results are difficult to analyze without seeing the regional breakdowns and so much will depend on who the governing Progressive Conservatives choose as their next leader this Fall.
Update: The Calgary Herald now has a story on the party support.
14 replies on “new survey suggests politics as usual in alberta.”
Bye bye Danielle Smith and her lot of extremists.
I don’t believe it. Wildrose support is much higher that posted and the next election will prove that.
Are Environics surveys still done by landline telephone?
I think we’re getting to a point where mixed surveying tactics need to be used to get anything approximating accurate results. 4 out of 5 members of my nuclear family don’t even have a landline anymore, and each of us is of a different political stripe. Anecdotal, I know, but not so much that it doesn’t affect results like this, methinks.
This poll puts the NDP up by 0.7% from the 2008 election. The collapse of the Liberals and split with the Wildrose Reformers means the NDP can win back ridings like Dave Eggen’s in Calder and Deron Bilous’ in Beverly.
I was stunned, quite literally, when I saw this.
Perhaps a stupid question, but are we really that forgiving of outright incompetence in this province?
In the absence of major scandal within the ranks of the Wildrose, and with the PCs still bumbling along until their next scandal, I can’t believe the prospect of placing a similar head on the same old beast is that appealing to the people of this province.
The again, why can’t I?
Dave, it will take an act of God for Albertans to wakeup from the 35yrs of darkness. Albertans have to wakeup from their mental slumber and re-engage logic, using one’s mind and start thinking with their heart again. The PC’s are bumbling bunch of fools getting a free electoral ride.
I for one, don’t believe the propaganda that was published on the Journal. Having spoke with many people since last Nov., people in Gen. are pxssed at the Tories. This polling should be taken with a grain of salt.
To be fair, I think the largest factor that will affect a survey like this is the choice of leader the PCs make in the fall. Surveys like these are useful indicators of where the voting population is now, but it could be quite different in a few months.
That said, it does say a lot about the strength (or lack thereof) of the opposition parties. The Tories are polling stronger in the polls without a permenant leader than when Albertans believed Premier Stelmach was staying.
I believe this says the most about the Wildrose Alliance, who have lost their political lightening rod with Premier Stelmach’s departure.
I think the PCs owe the Wildrose a debt of gratitude. By taking away the worst right-wing elements of the PC party, and displaying them for all to see, Smith and co have ensured that a lot of soft Liberal and/or NDP voters will instead flock to the relative safety of the PC party, especially under a new-but-experienced leader (could be said for any of the candidates).
The PC caucus probably operates a lot smoother now too, with the likes of Rob Anderson and Guy Boutillier out of the way.
I think the PC leadership candidates owe Ed Stelmach a debt of gratitude. With some glaring exceptions, he did the things that needed to be done, so that the next leader can take the Ralph “don’t worry, be happy” approach and blame Ed for all our ills.
re: “The survey results are difficult to analyze without seeing the regional breakdowns…”
Without targeted polling of rural Alberta, can anything be concluded with much confidence from results of regional breakdowns given the sample size?
My guess is that Wildrose support is high in rural ridings of central/southern Alberta. Rural opposition to the $16B powerlines under Bill 50, and property rights concerns arising from Bill 36 have been in play for almost 2 years. And removing Stelmach will not fully recover damage to the Tory brand from the royalty review in rural Alberta.
Sam Gunsch
These numbers make me despair for the political future of the province of Alberta. What will it take for the average Alberta voter to look at something other than the same old same old?
In two years, the PCs will surpass the Ontario “Big Blue Machine” for the longest uninterrupted period of one-party rule in Canadian history, and the Mitch Hepburn-Bill Davis Tories never faced such an impotent opposition across the aisle. *sigh*
If the PC’s elect their next leader from the moderate, “progressive” side of the spectrum, the WildRose will make them look like wild-eyed socialists! Which is change enough.
[…] with my views on the Calgary Herald-Edmonton Journal poll conducted by Environics that I mentioned on my blog yesterday morning, but I am going to offer my thoughts […]
I’m a little more interested in the leadership race polling, as I think everybody but committed Wildrose members understands that party never even would have happened but for anger at Ed Stelmach. Gary Mar at 12 per cent?!?! Jim Dinning could have been dead, or caught in bed with a farm animal and done better than 12 per cent! That’s a stellar campaign…not.