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Alberta Politics Calgary Politics Canadian Politics Candidate nominations

Ron Liepert versus Rob Anders: the next PC-Wildrose proxy war?

Rob Anders
Rob Anders

Will former provincial cabinet minister Ron Liepert make the jump into federal politics?

With the launch of the TimeToDoBetter.ca website today, rumours began to spread that the former two-term Calgary-West Progressive Conservative MLA turned consultant could challenge ultra-conservative Rob Anders for the Conservative Party nomination in the new Calgary Signal Hill riding.

Alberta Finance Minister Ron Liepert
Ron Liepert

Mr. Liepert’s candidacy would surely spark another proxy-war between the supporters of the provincial PC and Wildrose parties first seen in last year’s Calgary-Centre by-election.

This would not be the first time these two men have publicly sparred. In 2009, Mr. Liepert accused Mr. Anders of campaigning against him in the 2008 provincial election. Many of Mr. Anders associates have joined Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party, including his close confident Andrew Constantinidis, who ran to replace Mr. Liepert in the 2012 provincial election.

While many of his supporters flocked to the new provincial party, some in the Wildrose establishment see Mr. Anders as a political liability whose ideology could challenge their attempt to rebrand as a moderate conservative alternative to the governing PCs.

In the conservative bloodbath that is sure to ensue if the rumours are true, I would expect nothing less than for Mr. Anders and conservative entertainer Ezra Levant to slice directly at Mr. Liepert’s jugular. They will be sure to remind their conservative base about Mr. Leipert’s record as the Health minister who created the centralized Alberta Health Services and the Finance minister who introduced deficit budgets and talked about increasing taxes.

Mr. Liepert’s ties to the provincial PC establishment date back to the Peter Lougheed era, when he worked at the Legislative Assembly and was appointed as a staff member at Alberta’s trade office in Los Angeles. He first ran for the PC Party in 1993, first in an unsuccessfully bid for the party nomination in Edmonton-Glenora and then as the PC candidate in  Edmonton-Highlands-Beverly (in the election he was defeated by his Liberal opponent, Alice Hanson). He was first elected to the Assembly in 2004 as the PC MLA for Calgary-West.

Alison Redford Alberta Election 2012 Conservative leader
Alison Redford

Mr. Leipert is no slouch. In provincial politics, he thrived off the cut and thrust of partisan conflict.  Whether he could win the Conservative Party nomination against Mr. Anders is yet to be seen.

There is no shortage of criticism of Mr. Anders. Perhaps the most hard-edged social conservative in Ottawa, he is well-known for being the sole parliamentarian to vote against granting former South African president Nelson Mandela an honorary Canadian citizenship. He also embarrassingly attacked two Canadian Forces veterans, who he described as “NDP hacks.” He used his podium at an official Government of Canada press conference to endorse right-wing conservative Ted Morton. And he recently suggested that former NDP leader Jack Layton‘s death was hastened by now-leader Thomas Mulcair.

Since he was first elected in 1997, Mr. Anders has been challenged by many high profile conservatives and easily defeated all of them in nomination battles.

At the age of 24, Mr. Anders, then a young Republican Party provocateur, returned to Canada to defeat nine other candidates to win his first Reform Party nomination in Calgary-West. His election coincided with the election of a group of young conservative Reformers, including Jason Kenney and Rahim Jaffer.

If he is challenged by Mr. Liepert in the upcoming nomination, it would not be the first time a high-profile politico who has attempted to end Mr. Anders career in Ottawa.

In 2004, future Progressive Conservative premier Alison Redford made her first jump into electoral politics with an unsuccessful nomination bid against Mr. Anders. Mr. Liepert was her campaign manager.

In 2000, he was unsuccessfully challenged by Calgary-Currie PC MLA Jocelyn Burgener (now a poet) and in 2009 he faced future Calgary-Varsity PC MLA Donna Kennedy-Glans. With the help of Mr. Levant, he nastily branded Ms. Kennedy-Glans as a “Liberal saboteur” and a “bizarre cross between a radical feminist and an apologist for a women-hating Arab dictatorship.”

Internal nomination contests are not the only area Mr. Anders has faced challengers. In the 1997 election, alderman and future mayor Dave Bronconnier led an unsuccessful campaign against him as the Liberal Party candidate. In the 2000 election, Mr. Anders defeated both former Calgary-North West Liberal MLA Frank Bruseker and PC candidate Jim Silye (a Reform Party MP for Calgary-Centre from 1993 to 1997). Wind energy entrepreneur Justin Thompson earned 29% as the Liberal candidate in the 2004 election, the highest of any of Mr. Anders challengers. And the 2006 and 2008 elections, former Calgary Board of Education trustee Jennifer Pollock carried the Liberal banner against Mr. Anders.

Despite these high-profile challengers from inside and outside his party, Mr. Anders has yet to face electoral defeat in the political arena.

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Alberta Politics

The ghosts of senate reform haunt the Harper Conservatives

Stephen Harper Senate Conservatives Reform
Howling “RREEEEFFFOOOORRRRMMMM,” the ghosts of the Reform Party stumble towards the Conservative Party Convention in Calgary (Yes, this is a photo of zombies, but ghosts don’t stumble).

The ghosts of Senate reform will haunt Prime Minister Stephen Harper as his party establishment gathers in Calgary on Halloween to discuss and debate party policy. After more than seven years in office, Mr. Harper’s Conservatives have accomplished little on the issue of reforming the Canadian Senate.

Who would have thought that a Senate scandal involving Conservative appointees could potentially be one of the defining stories of Mr. Harper’s third-term as Prime Minister? Was Mr. Harper not the Prime Minister who vowed to reform Canada’s archaic upper house of Parliament?

While the federal Conservatives had hoped to end this particular Senate scandal with the announcement of a new free trade agreement with the European Union and a consumer-first agenda, the wrath of Conservative Senators scorned has dominated the headlines.

After being ejected from Conservative Party ranks, Senators Mike Duffy, Pamela Wallin, and Patrick Brazeau, all appointed by Mr. Harper, have proven to be incredibly dangerous liabilities. Accused of improper spending and expenses, the three former Conservatives have turned on their former party and are drawing national attention to alleged improper activities of Mr. Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright.

Senate reform was a defining policy for the now defunct Reform Party of Canada and a historical grievance that many western Conservatives hoped would finally be resolved when the Canadian Alliance (the Reform Party’s rebranded name) merged with the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada in 2003. While the crusade for a Triple-E Senate (equal, elected and effective) helped propel the Reform Party onto the national stage in the early 1990s, there does not appear to be much political appetite for this type of reform among Canada’s political leaders.

Since becoming Prime Minister in 2006, Mr. Harper has appointed at least 52 of the Senate’s 106 members, including many failed Conservative party candidates or close associates of the Prime Minister. Despite his claims that he would approach the Senate differently, Mr. Harper has proven by his actions that he is not much different than Prime Ministers Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien, or Paul Martin.

In Alberta, the only province to have held elections for Senate nominees, the votes have attracted low levels of attention and there is no indication that the upper chamber is more effective with the three current elected nominees that have been appointed.

Popular Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, seen by many as a potential successor to Mr. Harper, announced today that his government will revoke its support for Senate nominee election in favour of supporting abolishment of the Senate. This positions Mr. Wall alongside Official Opposition NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, who has embraced NDP’s long-standing position that the Senate should be abolished.

The Reform Party’s first leader, Preston Manning, in his role as the godfather of Canada’s conservatives, will today be hosting an all-day Manning Foundation symposium on the future of the Senate. Speakers will include Member of Parliament Pierre Poilievre, former Alberta MLA Ted Morton,  retired Liberal Senator Dan Hays, Calgary School chieftains Tom Flanagan and Rainer Knopff, and former Senator-nominee turned Wildrose Party candidate Link Byfield. This and other Manning Foundation events will coincide with official Conservative Party events in Calgary this weekend.

Provincial NDP take Lethbridge

Meanwhile, in southern Alberta, provincial New Democrats will gather this weekend for their annual convention  in Lethbridge. Delegates will hear from NDP strategist Anne McGrath and Robyn Benson, president of the Public Service Alliance of Canada.

At the annual meeting, NDP leader Brian Mason will not face a leadership review, but his party activists will debate some changes to party operations. One topic of debate will be whether the party holds annual conventions or moves to biennial conventions. Party members are also expected to debate whether the Labour movement should have two vice-presidents represented on the party’s executive council.

Most of the province outside of Edmonton is bleak for the social democratic party, but Lethbridge has provided a glimmer of hope that the NDP plan to build on. In the 2011 federal election, the NDP saw their support double to 27% and in the 2012 provincial election, Lethbridge-West candidate Shannon Phillips placed a strong second in a three-way race won by PC MLA Greg Weadick.

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Alberta Politics

Who is driving the conservative agenda in Canada?

In America’s Forbes Magazine this weekAlejandro Chafuen praised the leadership of the conservative policy think-tanks that helped set the stage for the election of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative majority government in 2011 and the success of conservative politicians across the country.

This apparatus of conservative special interest groups, think-tanks and news media has contributed to shifting Canada’s political narrative toward the political right. Who are these groups? It only takes a quick look to discover how connected and small this network actually is.

If you even pay casual attention to political news in Canada, you will undoubtedly hear clips from spokespeople representing the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, the Fraser Institute, the National Citizens Coalition, the MacDonald-Laurier Institute, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business or the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. These are just a few of the groups that are pushing the conservative agenda in this country.

Together, these groups have been very adept at advancing an anti-public services, anti-taxation, anti-labour union, and pro free-market agenda nationally and provincially. For many of them, these goals are the sole purposes for existing.

While most of these groups will frequently call for increased transparency in government, some refuse to make public their own financial backers. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation, which refuses to release the names of his own financial bankrollers, was found to actually have a only handful of members. Not much of a “federation,” though this revelation does not seem to have hurt the group’s ability to earn the attention of the mainstream media. It is hard not to give points to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation operatives for their relentless and entertaining media stunts.

These groups even have their own media platform – the Sun News Network – which is applying to the Canadian Radio and Telecommunications Commission to charge Canadians a mandatory  fee for a spot as regular cable and satellite channel. Launched in 2011, Sun News Network describes itself as “unapologetically patriotic” and “less politically correct” than other TV networks. Fox News North’s distinctly Tea Party flavour has led to no shortage of controversy since it launched.

Another group that refuses to release the names of its financial donors is the National Citizens Coalition. Drawing connections between this group and Fox News North, a former vice-president of the National Citizens Coalition, Gerry Nichollsquestioned why his former organization has focused on “shilling” for Sun News Network.

“I suppose I shouldn’t be too surprised that the NCC has dramatically changed since my time. It’s the nature of any organization to evolve. And the NCC has clearly evolved into a kind of organizational zombie,” Mr. Nicholls wrote on iPolitics.ca. “It still staggers along from issue to issue and reacts from time to time, but it no longer has a soul.”

The National Citizens Coalition is directed by former Conservative nomination candidate and prolific tweeter Stephen Taylor. While the organization’s president its denies ties to the Conservative Party, the lines are blurred.

These organizations have also served as a training ground for career political operatives who later jump into political office. The connections between these organizations and today’s conservative political establishment run deep and demonstrate a significant record of success in helping raise conservative politicians.

Prime Minister  Harper was the President of the National Citizens Coalition before returning to parliament in 2002. Senior cabinet minister Jason Kenney was the president of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation before he was elected to parliament in 1997. New Brunswick  Southwest Conservative MP John Williamson was a national director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. Looking at the provincial level, Wildrose leader Danielle Smith was the Alberta director of Canadian Federation of Independent Business and an intern with the Fraser Institute. Kevin Lacey, Atlantic Director for Canadian Taxpayers Federation worked for the Fraser Institute and in the Prime Ministers Office. Even Sun News caricature Ezra Levant once attempted to run for political office.

Founded by a godfather of Canada’s conservative movement, Preston Manning, the Manning Centre for Building Democracy is training a new generation of conservative candidates and activists how to win elections.

Last year, a leaked video revealed that wealthy Calgary developers – the “sprawl cabal” – were shovelling money into the Manning Centre’s municipal governance initiative with plans to block uber-popular Mayor Naheed Nenshi’s plans to implement smarter urban planning rules in the city. The project is run by Dimitri Pantazopoulos, who has worked as a Conservative Party pollster and strategist.

Looking toward the future, the Manning Centre is also fostering creative ideas that could help forward their movement. Mr. Manning’s group has awarded $10,000 annually to a project that will advance the conservative movement in Canada. Last year, BlueCrowd.ca, a crowd-funding project received the award.

It is somewhat ironic that one of the strongest roots of the modern conservative movement in Canada stems from a small group of tenured professors teaching at a publicly funded post-secondary institution. Conservative academics Tom Flanagan, Barry Cooper, Ranier Knopff, David Bercuson, and former Alberta Finance Minister Ted Morton at the “Calgary School” in the University of Calgary Political Science department long ago made it their mission to drive the Conservative agenda in Canada. They have done this through academic research, their own political activity and commentary, and involvement in election campaign strategy.

Notable students of the conservative Calgary School have included Prime Minister Harper, Mr. Levant, Ms. Smith, Conservative cabinet minister Pierre Poilievre, conservative strategist Ken Boessenkool, Fraser Institute senior fellow and former Taxpayers Federation director Mark Milke, and former Prime Ministerial Chief of Staff Ian Brodie among others.

While their are different brands of conservatism emanating from the school, from social to economic, one observer of the Calgary School reflected on its almost cultish following of libertarian economists Ludwig Von Mises and Milton Friedman.

According to Forbes Magazine, “the history of Canadian free-market think tanks and their contribution to Canadian reforms continues to be written. The leaders, supporters, and staff of the groups mentioned above deserve much credit for changing the economic face of Canada and of North America.”

Whether or not these groups accept credit for all the consequences of “changing the economic face of Canada” their opponents on the political left and centre can learn many lessons from how effective the political right machine has become in Canada.

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Alberta Politics

Former Finance Ministers Morton, Liepert and Snelgrove line up with free advice.

Ted Morton MLA
Ted Morton

Free from the tight leash of party discipline, three former Finance Ministers are giving plenty of advice to Premier Alison Redford and Finance Minister Doug Horner.

Ted Morton, the former two-term Tory MLA from Foothills-Rockyview and two-time Tory leadership candidate who served as Finance Minister from 2010 to 2011, penned an opinion-editiorial in Wednesday’s Calgary Herald pointing out some common misconceptions about Alberta’s fiscal situation.

While Professor Morton correctly points out that the symptoms of Alberta’s financial woes are not a new phenomenon, his prescription is a tough pill to swallow.

In his column, Dr. Morton dispels the myths that 1) our fiscal problems are just because we are having a bad year, 2)  our fiscal problems are just because of the low price of bitumen (also known as the notorious ‘Bitumen Bubble‘), and that 3) this is just about a Budget 2013 deficit.

On his fourth argument, Dr. Morton diverts into a more conservative ideological direction. While he correctly points out the fickleness and limited life-span of some political agendas, the former Finance Minister criticizes his successor for choosing to use financing to fund capital projects. On this point, Dr. Morton appears to share the view of his ideological kin in Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party, who spent the waining days of 2012 on a relentless offensive against the government on this very issue.

Alberta Finance Minister Ron Liepert
Ron Liepert

Ron Liepert, the former two-term Tory MLA from Calgary-West who served as Finance Minister from 2011 to 2012, has suggested that it was time for the government to address its revenue problems by looking at tax hikes.

“Nobody likes to pay more taxes. Nobody likes to pay the taxes you’re paying today. But everybody wants the services,” Mr. Liepert told the Calgary Herald in December 2012.

Meanwhile, disgruntled former Finance Minister Lloyd Snelgrove, who quit the Tory caucus in 2011 citing irreconcilable differences with Premier Redford, told the right-wing Sun News that he does not believe the government has a revenue problem, but if it does then a sales tax should be imposed.

Back in 2010, the last Tory to seriously discuss the idea of a sales tax was then-backbench MLA Doug Griffiths (now Municipal Affairs Minister). Mr. Griffiths was publicly demonized by the opposition for even broaching the topic.

Only two years earlier, another now-former Tory MLA, who is also now one of the government’s most vocal critic of the government, stood up in Alberta’s Legislative Assembly and called for tax reform and the introduction of a sales tax in Alberta:

“I, too, believe that the government of Alberta should look into studying the feasibility of eliminating our provincial income tax and using a consumption-based taxation system in its place, with a provincial sales tax being the likely substitute revenue generator.” – Newly elected Progressive Conservative MLA Rob Anderson in April 2008.

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Alberta Politics

Map: Alberta cabinet ministers catch the international travel bug.

“The Redford government spent more than half a million dollars on its trip to the London Olympics earlier this year, including about $113,000 in hotel rooms that were not used…” – Edmonton Journal reporter Keith Gerein

According to the Journal, the $518,280 trip sent 29 Albertans to London including Tory Premier Alison Redford, Culture Minister Heather Klimchuk, Tourism, Parks and Recreation Minister Christine Cusanelli, government officials, artists and performers including Corb Lund and Donovan Workun.

While the trip to the London Olympics has sticker shock, it is small potatoes in comparison to the Government of Alberta’s $14 million splash at the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, where Premier Ed Stelmach and cabinet ministers hosted Olympic attendees on a $499 per ticket luxury train to Whistler and showered them with gifts that included iPod Touchs and White Cowboy Hats.

I understand the value of sending cabinet ministers on these trips to promote our province abroad and I generally believe it is in our best interest, but there reaches a certain point when return on investment needs to be demonstrated.

Over the past eleven months, Premier Redford, cabinet ministers,  and backbench Tory MLAs have traveled extensively on government business. The trips have taken Alberta Government officials to five continents and more than twelve countries, including numerous trips to Washington DC, New York, and Hong Kong.

I have created a Google Map tracking the international travel of Premier Redford, cabinet ministers, and backbench Tory MLAs since November 2011. Zoom in and click the icons to read who traveled where and when.


View Alberta Cabinet Minister and MLA Travel November 2011-October 2012 in a larger map

Note: Travel dates and locations listed on this map were found in media releases published on the Government of Alberta website.

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Alberta Politics

big money spent in alberta’s 2012 election.

 

Canadian Money
Money, money, money.

Elections Alberta has released the financial disclosure forms submitted by candidates who ran in the April 2012 provincial election and some of the disclosure forms reveal some interesting information about how much money was fundraised and spent during the campaign. The money spent by candidates and political parties in Alberta elections are nowhere near the truckloads being spent south of the border in advance of November’s presidential and senate elections, but some of these numbers demonstrate how pitched some electoral battles were in the recent provincial election. Although money cannot replace hard-working candidates and dedicated volunteers, it makes available resources that can, in many cases, make a big difference in pushing a candidate to electoral success.

Premier Alison Redford Alberta
Premier Alison Redford

It appears that the most expensive race between two candidates was in Calgary-Elbow, where Premier Alison Redford faced Wildrose Party challenger James Cole. While Premier Redford’s campaign spent a massive $154,345.53, Mr. Cole’s campaign was not far behind, spending $123,647 during the election period.

South of Calgary in the Highwood constituency, the campaign of Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith (named Marlaina Danielle Smith by Elections Alberta) spent only $55,010.97 compared to the $90,706.19 spent by the campaign of Tory challenger John Barlow.

In the hotly-contested constituency of Calgary-Acadia, Wildrose challenger Richard Jones spent 69,335.39 on his unsuccessful campaign to unseat Justice Minister Jonathan Denis, whose campaign spent $71,246.45. Airdrie MLA Rob Anderson, who crossed the floor to the Wildrose Party in 2010, saw his campaign spend $77,295.20, which dwarfed the $32,411 spent by the campaign of his main challenger Kelly Hegg.

Danielle Smith Wildrose Party Alberta Election 2012
Danielle Smith

In the long-time Liberal-held Edmonton-Gold Bar constituency, Tory David Dorward‘s campaign spent $77,732.39, NDP Marlin Schmidt‘s spent $38,400.73, and Liberal Josipa Petrunic‘s spent $33,079.39. The contest was won by Mr. Dorward, who was elected with 33% of the vote. In Calgary-McCall, Liberal MLA Darshan Kang‘s campaign spent $82,629.80 to ward off challengers Tory Muhammad Rasheed and Wildroser Grant Galpin, whose campaigns spent $87,327.25 and $27,695.12.

In Edmonton-Rutherford, Tory Health Minister Fred Horne‘s $108,327.30 campaign easily outspent a wide field of challengers. Former Liberal MLA Rick Miller‘s campaign spent $41,117.36, the campaign of Alberta Party candidate Michael Walters spent $30,085.18, and Wildrose challenger Kyle Mcleod‘s campaign spent $23,477.51.

In many cases, the Tory MLA’s vastly outspent their main challengers (which in most cases, was the local Wildrose candidate). In Calgary-Greenway, Tory Manmeet Bhullar‘s campaign spent $133,294 against challenger Ron Leech‘s $14,078.05 campaign. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, the campaign of first-time Tory candidate Don Scott spent $110,955.44 to Wildroser Doug Faulkner‘s $21,011.41. In Edmonton-Whitemud, Tory cabinet minister Dave Hancock‘s campaign spent $121,233.35 to Wildrose challenger Ian Crawford‘s $11,598.73. In Calgary-West, Tory candidate Ken Hughes‘ campaign spent $111,796.33 compared to $31,781.49 from Wildrose challenger Andrew Constantinidis.

Ted Morton MLA
Ted Morton: the $159,618.90 man.

In some cases, outspending a challenge made little difference for incumbent Tory MLAs. In Chestermere-Rockyview, Energy Minister Ted Morton‘s campaign spent $159,618.90 compared to Wildrose challenger Bruce McAllister‘s $48,062.69. Mr. McAllister defeated Minister Morton on election night.

There were some other surprising finds as well. In Lethbridge-West, the campaign of NDP candidate Shannon Phillips spent $48,852.88 compared to PC MLA Greg Weadick‘s $39,394.54. This was also the NDP’s best showing outside of Edmonton.

The ‘Maurice Tougas Award for Electoral Victory on a Shoestring Budget’ goes to Wildrose MLA Jeff Wilson, who was elected in Calgary-Shaw for the first time in April 2012. Mr. Wilson was one of the last Wildrose Party candidates to be nominated and defeated Tory star candidate Farouk Adatia, who outspent the Wildrose challenger $78,347 to $15,358. Less extreme cases took place across central and southern Alberta, where Wildrose candidates were elected in long-time Tory voting constituencies.

The award is named after writer Maurice Tougas, who served as the Liberal MLA for Edmonton-Meadowlark from 2004 to 2008. Mr. Tougas’ campaign spent $5,366.55 in his last minute campaign against Tory MLA Bob Maskell, whose campaign spent $46,957.00. Mr. Tougas unseated Mr. Maskell on election night.

Note: I had hoped that I would be able to provide a more comprehensive list of numbers from the financial disclosure. Unfortunately, the unfriendly interfaced used by Elections Alberta on their website did not allow me the time to complete this. Rather than transferring the data into easily searchable and useable formats on their website, Elections Alberta provides PDFs of scanned paper forms which were completed in handwriting by the candidate’s Chief Financial Officers (the writing ranges from chicken-scratch to cursive). It is my hope that in the near future, Elections Alberta is able to build a more user-friendly website that allows Albertans to more easily access these important records.

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Alberta Politics

[updated] did jason kenney deepen the conservative divide in calgary-centre?

In light of yesterday’s embarrassing missive by federal cabinet minister Jason Kenney about Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, the race to become the Conservative Party candidate in the yet to be called Calgary-Centre by-election may get more interesting. Suggestions that the by-election could be defined by the deep schism between federal Conservatives (many of whom support the Wildrose Party) and the long-governing provincial Progressive Conservatives may soon become a reality in the lead up to the Conservative Party nomination.

Three in. The Conservative nomination contest.

John Mar Calgary-Centre Conservative
Alderman John Mar

Conservative political pundit and former Calgary Herald editor Joan Crockatt and former Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation board member Andy Crooks were the first two candidates to announce their intentions to seek the Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Centre. Mr. Crooks has already been endorsed by Calgary-West MP Rob Anders, a supporter of the Wildrose Party who is known for his far-right conservative politics.

Mr. Crooks was a signatory to the now famous “Alberta Firewall Letter” in 2001, which was also signed by Conservative luminaries Stephen Harper, Ted Morton, Tom Flanagan, Rainer Knopff, and Ken Boessenkool.

Two-term Calgary Alderman John Mar, recently in the news for his tough on potato farmers stances, entered the contest last week. With ties to the PCs, Alderman Mar could represent the voice of moderate Conservatives in the nomination contest.

Tory victory inevitable? Almost certainly, but…

Joe Clark Calgary-Centre MP
Joe Clark

Unless something cataclysmic occurs in the next six months, it is highly unlikely that the by-election in this riding will result in anything but the election of another Conservative MP. The type of Conservative candidate could effect how strong that outcome is.

Previous elections suggest that Calgary-Centre has a more moderate conservative streak than some other Calgary ridings. In the 2000 federal election, Progressive Conservative leader and former Prime Minister Joe Clark, a Red Tory, returned to the House of Commons by defeating Canadian Alliance MP Eric Lowther in what was one of the closely watched racesin the country. Another moderate Tory, Lee Richardson, continued this trend until his recent resignation.

The Liberal long-shot.

Beena Ashar Liberal Calgary-Centre
Beena Ashar

While it may not translate to votes on the federal level, voters in this riding have a streak of electing non-Conservative representatives on the provincial level, including Liberal MLA’s Kent Hehr and Dave Taylor (Mr. Taylor later joined the Alberta Party).

Fresh off the provincial election trail, Beena Ashar has announced her intentions to seek the Liberal Party nomination. As the Liberal candidate in Calgary-Elbow, Ms. Ashar placed a distant third behind Premier Alison Redford. She also placed third when challenging Ward 5 Alderman Ray Jones in the 2010 municipal election.

Past Liberal candidate and former school board chair Jennifer Pollock announced on Twitter last week that she would not be running in the by-election.

Update: William Hamilton, the 2011 Green Party candidate, has announced that he will seek the Green Party nomination when the election is called. Mr. Hamilton was also the EverGreen Party candidate in Calgary-Elbow in the recent provincial election.

Update (July 24, 2012): Andy Crooks has dropped out of the Conservative nomination.

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Alberta Politics

alison redford attends the bilderberg. thomas mulcair visits the oilsands.

Bilderberg Redford
Premier Alison Redford is attending the 2012 Bilderberg Group conference.

There are no shortage of internet conspiracy theories about the mysterious Bilderberg Group conference, but now Alberta Premier Alison Redford will know the truth about the invite-only private annual meeting of the world’s top neo-liberal financial, business, and political elites.

Premier Redford has been invited the the event, which is being held in Virginia from May 31 to June 3. Only a small group of Canadian political leaders have been invited to attend, including Prime Minister Stephen Harper, former Prime Ministers Jean Chretien and Paul Martin, and former premiers Mike Harris and Gordon Campbell, to name a few.

Danielle Smith Wildrose Party Alberta Election 2012
Danielle Smith: Outraged.

As the emperors of industry behind the Bilderberg Group continue to push failed neo-liberal economic policies that have helped create crumbling markets across the globe, the unbounded potential of Alberta’s natural resource wealth will undoubtedly be a topic of discussion.

Premier Redford’s decision to attend this meeting earned immediate denunciation from Wildrose Official Opposition leader Danielle Smith. Ms. Smith criticized the Premier for not staying in Alberta to confront NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, who was in the province yesterday to visit Fort McMurray and tour an oilsands operation. Reaction to Mr. Mulcair’s visit drew a supportive comment from Wood Buffalo Mayor Melissa Blake, who told the Edmonton Journal:

“It seems like his interests are not necessarily out of alignment with what most Canadians would be interested in – a healthy sustainable environment.”

Breaking from the cries of outrage displayed by many of her Conservative counterparts, Premier Redford has taken a nuanced approach to responding to Mr. Mulcair’s comments that Alberta’s natural resource wealth has contributed to a high Canadian dollar and the decline of Ontario’s manufacturing industry.

Thomas Mulcair NDP Leader
Thomas Mulcair: It's a trap!

Rather than playing into Mr. Mulcair’s strategy to leverage a wedge issue among many voters outside of Alberta (especially in the economically depressed and voter rich southern Ontario) who are uncomfortable with the West’s economic growth and resulting environmental issues, Premier Redford has largely played it cool when responding to criticisms of the oilsands.

For all the criticism of Mr. Mulcair’s strategic play, it provides further evidence that the NDP Official Opposition under his leadership are prepared to use the same type of wedge politics that Prime Minister Harper’s Conservatives have successfully used over the past eight years. It should be noted that Ms. Smith’s Wildrose Party attempted to emulate the same type of wedge politics in the recent provincial election.

Premier Redford’s calm response is a break in style from recent political leaders like former Premier Ralph Klein, who expressed little interest in taking a leading role on the national stage.

As well as a change in tone, Premier Redford has made a number of political moves that suggest a shift toward Alberta’s provincial government becoming a serious player on the national stage, including beginning discussions with other provincial leaders about a [still vaguely defined] National Energy Strategy.

Earlier this month, Premier Redford announced the opening of an Alberta Office in Ottawa. Ms. Smith criticized the announcement, suggesting that the 27 Conservative Party Members of Parliament were doing a good enough job advocating for Albertans in the national capital. As both Ms. Smith and Premier Redford know, many of those Conservative MPs showed various levels of support for the Wildrose Party in the recent election. As a former lobbyist herself, Ms. Smith will undoubtedly be aware that successful lobbying includes more than meeting with politicians.

One person rumoured to be in line for the appointment as the Alberta government’s lobbyist in Ottawa is former Finance Minister Ted Morton, who is a former colleague of now-Prime Minister Stephen Harper. In Ottawa yesterday, Calgary-Centre Conservative MP Lee Richardson announced he had been hired as Premier Redford’s Principal Secretary and senior strategist. Before first heading to Ottawa in the 1980s, Mr. Richardson was the Chief of Staff to Premier Peter Lougheed, who may have been Alberta’s last provincial leader who was also a significant player on the national stage.

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Alberta Politics

who are they? meet alberta’s wildrose official opposition.

When Alberta’s Legislative Assembly reconvenes in the next few months, for the first time since 1982 the title of Official Opposition will given to a caucus of MLA’s representing a party other than the New Democrats or the Liberals. Following the April 23 general election, seventeen Wildrose Party MLA’s were elected, creating the largest Official Opposition caucus since 1997 (when eighteen Liberal MLA’s were elected).

Heather Forsyth Danielle Smith Rob Anderson Wildrose MLAs
Wildrose MLA's Heather Forsyth, leader Danielle Smith, and Rob Anderson in January 2010.

Aside from high-profile leader Danielle Smith, who was elected in Highwood, most Albertans would probably respond with blank stares if asked to name another Wildrose MLA. Over the past week, I have read biographies and scoured the internet for information about the MLA’s who, for at least the next four years, have been tasked with the responsibility of being Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition in Alberta.

Only two of the four incumbent Wildrose Party MLA’s were re-elected last week. Paul Hinman, who was narrowly elected in a 2009 by-election was soundly defeated by PC candidate Linda Johnson in Calgary-Glenmore. In Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, four-term MLA Guy Boutilier, who crossed the floor to the Wildrose in 2010 after sitting for 12 years as a Progressive Conservative MLA, was unseated by municipal councillor Mike Allen. Both Airdrie MLA Rob Anderson and Calgary-Fish Creek MLA Heather Forsyth, who crossed the floor from the PCs to the Wildrose in January 2010, were re-elected.

The Rookies

Here is a look at the fourteen rookie MLA’s who will be joining Ms. Smith, Mr. Anderson, and Ms. Forsyth in the Wildrose Party caucus.

Joe Anglin Drew Barnes Gary Bikman Wildrose MLA
Wildrose MLA's Joe Anglin, Drew Barnes, and Gary Bikman.

Joe Anglin (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre)
Unseated six-term PC MLA and former cabinet minister Ty Lund. Mr. Anglin is the former leader of the Green Party of Alberta and well-known Landowners’ rights advocate. In 2007, he and the Lavesta landowners’ group were the targets of the now infamous spying scandal carried out by the now defunct Alberta Energy and Utilities Board. Most recently the President and CEO of an oil and gas trading company, Mr. Anglin is an ex-United States Marine, former New Hampshire police officer, and former member of the Canadian Coast Guard Auxiliary. He is married to Deborah Laing, a Minister at Rimbey United Church.

Drew Barnes (Cypress-Medicine Hat)
Defeated two-term PC MLA Len Mitzel. Mr. Barnes is a real estate agent and co-owner of Belcore Homes, a construction company in Medicine Hat. He is the past-campaign chair and president of the Southeastern United Way. He completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree at the University of Alberta in 1983.

Gary Bikman (Cardston-Taber-Warner)
Mr. Bikman is a business management consultant and co-founder of ChopStix International Franchising Inc, a fast food gourmet Chinese restaurant chain. He is the past-president of Speedy Heavy Hauling Ltd, an oilfield service company. Until recently he was a councillor and deputy mayor of the Village of Sterling. Mr. Bikman attended the first Reform Association of Canada (later the Reform Party of Canada) conference in Vancouver in 1987. His Facebook page lists him as having completed a Bachelor of Science degree in Psychology (1968) and Master of Business Administration (1972) at Brigham Young University.

Ian Donovan Rod Fox Jason Hale Wildrose MLA
Wildrose MLA's Ian Donovan, Rod Fox, and Jason Hale.

Ian Donovan (Little Bow)
Mr. Donovan farms near the hamlet of Mossleigh. He was elected to Vulcan County Council at the age of 19 and he has served for the past 16 years, including two years as Reeve. Perceived mishandling of the nomination process which selected him as the candidate led to the entire executive board of the Little Bow Wildrose Association to resign in January 2010.

Rod Fox (Lacombe-Ponoka)
Mr. Fox is a sales manager for an insurance company. From 2006 to 2007 he served as a director on the Lacombe Economic Development Board and ran unsuccessfully for Lacombe municipal council in 2007. He served as President of the Conservative Party of Canada Wetaskiwin Electoral District Association from 2007 to 2010 and was Communications Director for MP Blaine Calkins during the 2011 federal election.

Jason Hale (Strathmore-Brooks)
Unseated first-term PC MLA Arno Doerksen. Mr. Hale operates a cattle farm with his family. He was a Professional Bullfighter for 10 years and is a member of the a member of the Bassano Rodeo committee and a Director on the Bassano Agricultural Society. He completed a diploma in Chemical Technology at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology. He also coaches for hockey and baseball.

Bruce McAllister Blake Pedersen Bruce Rowe Wildrose MLA
Wildrose MLA's Bruce McAllister, Blake Pedersen, and Bruce Rowe.

Bruce McAllister (Chestermere-Rockyview)
Defeated senior cabinet minister and former PC leadership candidate Ted Morton. Originally from New Brunswick, Mr. McAllister is well-known for his time as the host of Global Television’s morning newscast in Calgary since 2004. Before moving to Calgary, Mr. McAllister was an anchor and reporter at CH Television in Victoria, BC. He also worked as a broadcaster in Winnipeg and Halifax.

Blake Pedersen (Medicine Hat)
Mr. Pedersen has been a co-owner in an oilfield, industrial supply company since 1999.

Bruce Rowe (Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills)
An electrical contractor by trade, Mr. Rowe was first elected to Beiseker village council in 2001 and was Mayor. He served on the board of directors of the Alberta Urban Municipalities Association representing villages and summer villages. Mr. Rowe was an AUMA representative to the Safety Codes Council.

Shayne Saskiw Pat Steir Rick Strankman Wildorse MLA
Wildorse MLA's Shayne Saskiw, Pat Steir, and Rick Strankman.

Shayne Saskiw (Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills)
Unseated three-term MLA and cabinet minister Ray Danyluk. Mr. Saskiw studied Law at the University of Alberta with MLA Rob Anderson and practiced law in Vegreville. He was named one of “The Next 10” by Alberta Venture magazine in 2010. Mr. Saskiw served as Vice-President (Policy) of the PC Party from 2008 until January 2010, when he joined the Wildrose Party. He later served as executive director of the Wildrose Party.

Pat Stier (Livingstone-Macleod)
Unseated first-term MLA and cabinet minister Evan Berger. Mr. Stier lives on his family’s ranch near DeWinton and is the President of River Canyon Enterprises Inc., which provides planning services for land use and development applications to rural land owners. He served one term on the municipal council of the M.D. of Foothills from 2004 to 2007. He was a member of the PC Party Board of Directors in Highwood from 2006 to 2009 and in 2010 became the President of the Wildrose Alliance association in that constituency. Between 1988 and 1999 he served as President of the Dunbow Road Area Residents Association.

Rick Strankman (Drumheller-Stettler)
Unseated cabinet minister Jack Hayden. Mr. Strankman owns a cattle ranch and grain farm near Altario. He is the past Treasurer of the Western Barley Growers Association and is an anti-Canadian Wheat Board activist. In 1996, he was fined $1000 for taking his own wheat in his grain truck and driving it across the Canadian border into the United States. In 2000, Mr. Strankman was an unsuccessful candidate in the Canadian Wheat Board elections and in 2002 he was fined $7,500 and faced 180 days in jail after taking 756 bushels of wheat across the American border and sold it (he only served a week in jail with four other rebel farmers).

Kerry Towle Jeff Wilson Wildrose MLA
Wildrose MLA's Kerry Towle and Jeff Wilson.

Kerry Towle (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)
Defeated three-term PC MLA and former cabinet minister Luke Ouellette. Ms. Towle is a real estate broker and was executive assistant with the now-dissolved David Thompson Health Region. She ran a turkey farming operation with her husband for five years. She attended Reeves Business College in 1992 and 1993.

Jeff Wilson (Calgary-Shaw)
Defeated appointed PC candidate Farouk Adatia. Mr. Wilson is an account executive at the audio-visual equipment company AVW-Telas. He studied business and broadcasting at Mount Royal College (now Mount Royal University).

Categories
Alberta Politics

the day after: alberta election analysis.

Alberta Election Results 2012
Alberta Election Results 2012

What was expected to be the most exciting provincial election in history of our province turned out to be a continuation of the 41-year old Progressive Conservative dynasty. The pollsters, the media, and the pundits (including this blogger) appear to have completely misjudged the electoral climate in the final days of the election.

Unofficial Results
PC: 61
Wildrose: 17
Liberal: 5
NDP: 4

It appears that the PC Party call to moderate voters to vote strategically to block the Wildrose Party from forming government was successful in Calgary, Edmonton, and northern Alberta. While the Tories ran a completely lacklustre campaign, Albertans’ unease with the thorny social conservative views of Wildrose candidates Allan Hunsperger and Ron Leech undoubtedly drew moderates to cast their ballots for the PCs yesterday.

Alison Redford Alberta Election 2012 Conservative leader
Alison Redford

At least for now, Premier Alison Redford is secure in her position as leader of the PC Party. The PCs have re-elected a number of veteran MLAs, including Dave Hancock in Edmonton-Whitemud, and a new cast of rookie MLAs who will amount to about 1/3 of the governing caucus.

The golden rule of Alberta elections remains truth: never bet against the incumbent.

The Tories have lost many of their former strongholds in rural Alberta and cabinet giants, including Ted Morton in Chestermere-Rockyview, Evan Berger in Livingstone-Macleod, Jack Hayden in Drumheller-Stettler, and Ray Danyluk in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills. Successful use of wedge issues like property rights likely played a significant role in the Wildrose winning these rural constituencies.

Danielle Smith Wildrose Party Alberta Election 2012
Danielle Smith

With 17 MLA’s, Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party will form the Official Opposition in the Assembly. Ms. Smith’s challenges are two-fold. First, she must manage the expectations of disappointed caucus members who expected to be sitting in the government benches. Second, she must form a cohesive opposition consisting of mostly rookie MLA’s (including herself). Two of the Wildrose Party’s four incumbent MLA’s were defeated last night. Only MLA Heather Forsyth in Calgary-Fish Creek and Rob Anderson in Airdrie were re-elected.

The Wildrose caucus is almost entirely made up of MLA’s from southern rural Alberta constituencies, which breaks from the almost three decade-long tradition of urban-based Liberal or NDP official oppositions. This will be the first time since the Social Credit Party formed official opposition in 1971 that a large caucus of rural MLAs are the official opposition. Despite signs of a wave early in the campaign, the Wildrose Party only elected two MLA’s in Calgary, including Ms. Forsyth and Jeff Wilson, who defeated PC appointee candidate Farouk Adatia in Calgary-Shaw.

Raj Sherman Liberal Party leader Election 2012
Raj Sherman

It was a miracle that we survived” was Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman‘s comment on CBC Radio this morning. The Liberal Party elected five MLA’s last night, losing official opposition status for the first time in nineteen years. The Liberal vote collapsed across the province to 10% and the party lost long-time Liberal voting constituencies Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Riverview, and Calgary-Varsity to the Tories.

Former Liberal MLA Maurice Tougas may have said it best on his blog this morning, “Liberals will now have to ask themselves what their place is in Alberta politics, or indeed if there is any place for them at all.

The NDP probably have mixed feelings this morning. NDP leader Brian Mason ran a smooth campaign and his party has gained official party status by adding former MLA David Eggen from Edmonton-Calder and Deron Bilous from Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview to their caucus, but they are still one MLA smaller than the Liberals, who many New Democrats had hoped to surpass.

There are some pretty disappointed people in the Alberta Party camp this morning. Their hopes for electing an MLA were dashed, but the party earned 17,144 across the province, which leaves them with something to build on for the next election.

More to come…

Categories
Alberta Politics

predicting alberta’s election results.

We have received more than 100 entries for the joint Daveberta and CalgaryGrit Great Alberta Election pool and have entered these predictions into a state of the art spreadsheet to discover some interesting predictions for tomorrow’s vote.

Alberta Election Pool Seat Count Prediction Averages
Alberta election pool seat count prediction: Averages (from CalgaryGrit.ca)

The average of the seat count predictions would see Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Party form a minority government with 42 of the 87 seats in the Assembly. The Progressive Conservatives would hold on to 37 (down from 72 in the 2008 election), the NDP would become the third largest party in the Assembly with 4 MLAs, and the Liberals would drop from 9 to 3 MLAs.

The average seat count prediction shows the Alberta Party electing one MLA, but the averages response to the question predicting that party’s best results in a constituency is 22%.

Who will be re-elected?

Most entrants predict that PC MLA Ted Morton will be defeated in Chestermere-Rockyview and that Premier Alison Redford will be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow. The entires were split on predicting whether Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman would be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark.

MLA Hunsperger and Leech?

The entries also showed a signifiant split in predicting whether controversial Wildrose Party candidates Allan Hunsperger and Ron Leech would be elected tomorrow.

Edmonton-Glenora

More than 50% of entries predict that PC MLA Heather Klimchuk will be re-elected in hotly contested Edmonton-Glenora campaign. Predicting her opponents chances of winning, 21% chose NDP candidate Ray Martin, 17% chose Alberta Party candidate Sue Huff, 8% chose former Liberal MLA Bruce Miller, and 3% chose Wildrose candidate Don Koziak.

Highest Tory votes

Battle River-Wainwright (represented by PC MLA Doug Griffiths), Edmonton-Whitemud (represented by PC MLA Dave Hancock), Edmonton-South West, Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills (represented by PC MLA Ray Danyluk), Spruce Grove-St. Albert (represented by PC MLA Doug Horner), and Strathcona-Sherwood Park (represented by PC MLA Dave Quest) were the constituencies predicted to have the highest PC vote on election day.

The pool is still open for new participants until the polls open at 9:00 a.m. tomorrow.

Categories
Alberta Politics

the great alberta election pool.

Alberta Legislative Assembly
Who will run the show after April 23?

On Monday, Albertans will go to the polls in what is already being dubbed a “historic” election. The outcome is uncertain, so why not gaze into your crystal ball and enter the Daveberta and CalgaryGrit election pool. It is simple enough – predict the seat totals for each party and answer 10 bonus questions. Everyone gets 87 points minus one point for each seat you are off per party, plus two points per correct bonus question.

Robert Vollman has generously donated the following political book prize packs (shipping extra, unless we can arrange a pick-up in Calgary, Edmonton, or Toronto):

1. The Bill of Rights package: One Canada (Diefenbaker), Memoirs (Trudeau)
2. The Preston Manning package: Thinking Big, The New Canada and Roots of Reform
3. The Jean Chretien package: The Friendly Dictatorship, Straight From the Heart
4. The Federalists package: A Nation Too Good to Lose (Joe Clark), Fighting for Canada (Diane Francis)
5. The Obscure Package: The Betrayal of Canada (Mel Hurtig), Navigating a New World (Lloyd Axworthy)

First choice goes to the overall winner, with the winners of the seat prediction portion and the bonus question portion also winning a book pack. So even if you are an Ontarian, like my friend Dan, with no clue what a “Ted Morton” is, never mind if he’ll win his seat, you can skip the bonus questions and still be eligible for the prizes, based on a shot-in-dark seat prediction.

Contest will close as soon as the polls open Monday. Please paste your entry in the comments here or at CalgaryGrit, or e-mail your picks in to david.cournoyer@gmail.com.

Election Results Questions

Number of MLAs elected by each party (total: 87 MLAs)

Alberta Party:
Liberal:
NDP:
PC:
Wildrose:
Other:

Bonus Question

1. The constituency where the PC candidate will earn their highest percentage of the popular vote:
(2008 results here; candidate list here; top ridings last time: Vermilion-Lloydminster (Lloyd Snelgrove – not running), Battle River-Wainwright (Doug Griffiths), Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (Ed Stelmach – not running), Bonnyville-Cold Lake (Genia Leskiw), Strathmore-Brooks (Arno Doerksen), Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills (Ray Danyluk))

2. Will PC MLA Ted Morton be re-elected in Chestermere-Rockyview?
(Morton won with 57% of the vote last time, but 308.com projects 22-point Wildrose win)

3. Will Premier Alison Redford be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow?
(Redford beat the Liberals by 3% last election, and 308.com projects her to beat the Wildrose by 3%)

4. Will Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark?
(As a PC, Sherman defeated the Liberals 54% to 30% in 2008)

5. What will the highest vote percentage for the Alberta Party be in a riding? (points if you’re within +/- 5%)
(Polls show them under 5% province-wide, but they’ve targeted a pair of Edmonton constituencies, including the one in Q7)

6. Will either Allan Hunsperger (“gays burn in hell”) or Ron Leech (“being white is an advantage”) win their seat?
(308.com projects Hunsberger to lose, but has Leech in a virtual dead heat)

7. Who will be elected in Edmonton-Glenora?
(Candidates: Sue Huff AP, Bruce Miller Lib, Ray Martin NDP, Heather Klimchuk PC, Don Koziak WR; 2008 vote: PC 40%, Lib 39%, NDP 15%, WR 2%)

8. Which party leaders will announce plans to resign within 48 hours of the vote?
(Alison Redford PC, Danielle Smith WR, Raj Sherman Lib, Brian Mason NDP, Glenn Taylor AP)

9. How many of the 3 senate positions will the Wildrose Party win?
(They’re running 3 candidates, the PCs are running 3 candidates, the Greens have 1 candidate, and there are 6 independents; full list here)

10. Who will get more votes – Liberals or NDP?
(current polls have them effectively tied)

Categories
Alberta Politics

gary mar ordered to take unpaid leave pending investigation. alberta pc party releases leadership campaign audited financial reports.

Gary Mar Alberta Representative to Asia
Gary Mar

Premier Alison Redford has ordered former cabinet minister Gary Mar, now the Government of Alberta’s representative in Asia, to take an unpaid leave of absence during an ethics investigation of a recent fundraiser held in Edmonton. Mr. Mar, who placed second in the 2011 PC leadership, hosted a fundraiser to help pay off his campaign debt, which exceeds $226,000.

CBC is reporting that one version of an invitation for the fundraiser mentioned Mr. Mar’s position in Asia and implied that ticket-holders would learn how to do business in Hong Kong.

PC Party releases audited leadership campaign financials
Financial statements from five of the six Progressive Conservative leadership campaigns who participated in the 2011 contest have been published on that party’s website. Former MLA Rick Orman, who now leads a government northern economic strategy group, is the only candidate who’s campaign had not submitted his records at the time the PC Party posted them online yesterday.

Audited documents
Doug Griffiths
Doug Horner
Gary Mar
Ted Morton
Alison Redford

Much of the financial contributions information in these audited documents is already known, as the candidates released some of their donation records during the course of the leadership campaign. It is sometimes interesting to see which businesses and lobby groups contribute to all campaigns, and the broad number of groups that participate in the governing party’s leadership campaigns.

Many of Alberta’s well-known corporations, like Telus and TransAlta, donated large sums of money to each candidate. Demonstrating just how wide the big blue tent is in Alberta, the Merit Contractors Association, an association of anti-union construction industry employers, is listed as having donated more than $71,000 to various leadership candidates, while Local 488 of the United Association of Plumbers & Pipefitters donated $5,000 each to the campaigns of the top three placing candidates.

These audited documents also gives Albertans a closer look at the financial outcomes and expenses of the campaigns.

The campaign of second place Mr. Mar reported $2,687,155 in expenditures and a $262,099 deficit when the campaign period ended. This is a monumental amount of money and may be the first time that an unsuccessful Canadian provincial party leadership candidate has spent this much. Having watched Mr. Mar’s campaign, which included all the bells and whistles (from an Obama-style campaign bus to a mock cooking show), I am not shocked to discover that the expenses piled up. As noted at the beginning of this post, Mr. Mar is still trying to pay off his campaign debt.

Doug Griffiths‘ campaign spent $164,400 and retained a surplus of $10,068. The financial report notes that surplus funds will be used to create a post-secondary bursary for residents in Mr. Griffiths’ Battle River-Wainwright constituency.

Ted Morton‘s campaign reported $977,238 in expenses and $115,732 revenue in excess of expenditures. The surplus funds will be donated to the Glenbow Ranch Foundation and the University of Calgary Political Science department.

The campaign of now-Deputy Premier Doug Horner recorded $1,231,383 in expenses and recorded an $8,059 surplus. His financial disclosure form does not make note of where the surplus funds were allocated.

Premier Redford’s campaign spent $1,290,575 and was left with a $20,846 surplus when the campaign ended. The statement does not indicate what was done with the surplus funds.

Audited statements from three of the campaigns provided a breakdown in expenditures (Redford, Mar, and Morton). Mr. Morton and Premier Redford’s documents breakdown expenditures into a number of identifiable categories, while the majority of Mr. Mar’s expenses are lumped into the vague and all-encompassing “advertising and other campaign expenses” category.

Alison Redford PC leaderhship campaign 2011, Expenses
Alison Redford PC leadership campaign 2011, Expenses
Gary Mar PC leaderhship campaign 2011, Expenses
Gary Mar PC leadership campaign 2011, Expenses
Ted Morton PC leaderhship campaign 2011, Expenses
Ted Morton PC leadership campaign 2011, Expenses
Categories
Alberta Politics

15 races to watch in alberta’s 2012 election.

In the lead up to the Alberta’s 2012 election, I have identified fifteen constituencies across the province that could produce interesting contests and results when the election is called.

15 races to watch in Alberta's 2012 election.
15 races to watch in Alberta's 2012 election.

1) Highwood
The Wildrose Party has staked their future in the success of leader Danielle Smith and I expect that party will pull out all the stops to ensure she is elected. The PCs have nominated newspaper editor John Barlow to replace retiring PC MLA George Groeneveld.

2) Edmonton-Meadowlark
This area has deep Liberal roots, having first elected MLA Grant Mitchell in 1986, but since 2001 it has become a swing-riding electing both Liberals and PCs. Currently held by former PC MLA and now Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman, the next vote will be a test of his personal popularity as he runs under his new party’s banner. He will face former PC MLA Bob Maskell, who served from 2001 until 2004.

3) Edmonton-Calder
Voters in this constituency are notorious swing-voters. No incumbent has been re-elected here since 1997. Current PC MLA Doug Elniski made a last minute announcement that he would not seek re-election, leaving former school trustee and newly nominated candidate Bev Esslinger not a lot of time to catch up. Former MLA David Eggen has been campaigning in Calder for the past three years and is expected to launch a well-organized campaign. Wildrose candidate Rich Neumann may play kingmaker if he is able to attract enough past PC voters.

4) Calgary-Glenmore
In 2009, outgoing Wildrose leader Paul Hinman narrowly won a hotly contested by-election that was seen as a referendum on then-Premier Ed Stelmach‘s popularity in Calgary (which was low). With new Premier Alison Redford representing the neighboring constituency, PC candidate Linda Johnson may receive a warmer reception at the doors. Throw into the mix former Mount Royal College instructor Craig Cheffins, who served as the Liberal MLA for Calgary-Elbow from 2007 to 2008, and the outcome of this race could be difficult to predict.

5) Edmonton-Glenora
Represented by both PC and Liberal MLAs over the past twenty years, this constituency could be a key battleground for five opposition parties in the next election. Former Liberal MLA Bruce Miller is challenging PC cabinet minister Heather Klimchuk, who unseated him by 136 votes in 2008. Rev. Miller is not the only challenger in this election. The Alberta Party is pinning their hopes on former school trustee Sue Huff, the NDP have nominated former MLA and leader Ray Martin, and the Wildrose have chosen past Mayoral candidate Don Koziak.

6) Calgary-Varsity
With the retirement of popular two-term Liberal MLA Harry Chase, the Liberals have nominated former carpenters’ union official Bruce Payne, who ran for that party’s leadership in 2011. The PCs have chosen former Nexen vice-president Donna Kennedy-Glans. The results of this race will be a critical indicator of whether the Liberals can hold on to, and build on, important gains made in Calgary during the past two elections.

7) Chestermere-Rockyview
Energy Minister Ted Morton will face off against former Global Calgary news anchor and Wildrose candidate Bruce McAllister. The Wildrose attacked Minister Morton’s credentials as a “fiscal mallard” while he was Finance Minister and by nominating Mr. McAllister they are showing that they will not give him a pass in the next election.

8 ) Airdrie
When first-term PC MLA Rob Anderson joined the Wildrose in 2010, he automatically became a target of his former party, who have nominated Alderman Kelly Hegg as their candidate. The Airdrie area has typically voted for the PCs, but voters in this region have been known to elect opposition candidates in the past (Western Canadian Concept MLA Gordon Kesler was elected in 1982 and Liberal MLA Don MacDonald was elected in 1992).

9) Cardston-Taber-Warner
After being unseated by Wildorse MLA Mr. Hinman in 2004, PC MLA Broyce Jacobs won a narrow victory in 2008. Fast forward to 2012, Mr. Jacobs has lost his party’s nomination to Pat Shimbashi and the Wildrose has nominated Sterling Deputy Mayor Gary Bikman. If the Wildrose are to pick up seats in the election, this will likely be one.

10) Edmonton-Rutherford
In a rematch of the closest race of the 2008 election, PC MLA Fred Horne will face former Liberal MLA Rick Miller. While 2008 a two-way contest, the 2012 contest is more interesting with the presence of community organizer and Alberta Party candidate Michael Walters and Wildrose candidate Kyle McLeod.

11) Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
After winning four elections as this constituency’s PC candidate, late-blooming Wildrose MLA Guy Boutilier will face Wood Buffalo deputy mayor Mike Allen in the upcoming vote. After decades as a municipal and provincial politician, this election may be more a test of Mr. Boutilier’s personal support than that of his new party.

12) Edmonton-Gold Bar
A Liberal Party stronghold since 1986, the retirement of MLA Hugh MacDonald and the redistribution of electoral boundaries south encompassing Tory-voting neighbourhoods may give second-time PC candidate David Dorward a boost. Liberal candidate Josipa Petrunic is a well-spoken and passionate partisan who hopes to hold the constituency for her party. The NDP have nominated Marlin Schmidt and hope to capitalize on local support for NDP MP Linda Duncan.

13) Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
A close contest in 2008 saw former PC MLA Tony Vandermeer defeat NDP MLA Ray Martin. In 2012, Mr. Vandermeer will face a strong challenge from NDP candidate Deron Bilous.

14) Lethbridge-West
After twenty years of close races, voters in this constituency have proven themselves to be deeply divided between the PCs and Liberals. This election, first-term PC MLA Greg Weadick and second-time Liberal candidate Bal Boora will be joined by NDP candidate Shannon Phillips, who has launched a spirited campaign, and Wildrose candidate Kevin Kinahan. Even if Mr. Weadick is re-elected, the real story may be who places second in this politically moderate southern Alberta constituency.

15) Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
After more than three decades in the Assembly, the departure of PC MLA Ken Kowalski has created a large void to fill in this constituency north of Edmonton. The PCs have nominated Westlock County Councillor Maureen Kubinec, who will face off against her main opponent Wildrose candidate Link Byfield. Mr. Byfield has been campaigning for more than a year and could make gains if he is able to tap into the base of social conservative voters in this constituency.

Categories
Alberta Politics

january kick-off: big changes or status-quo in 2012?

Fresh back into the new year, it would be easy to assume that January would be a slow month for most of Alberta’s elected officials as they ease back into their regular 80 hour work week. If the first month of recent years are any indication, January has tendency of becoming one of the most tulmoltuoust political months of the year.

In January 2011, Alberta’s political establishment was rocked when Premier Ed Stelmach announces his plans to resign after his party’s political fortunes sagged in the polls and Finance Minister Ted Morton resigned over a dispute about the provincial budget. A week later, Liberal leader David Swann announced his resignation. The day before Premier Stelmach’s resignation, former Liberal MLA Dave Taylor became the first Alberta Party MLA.

In January 2010, backbench Tory MLAs Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth crossed the floor to join the Wildrose Alliance, and were soon joined by a long-time Tory insider. The changes in political alllegences were followed by a smooth cabinet shuffle that moved the controversial bulldog Health Minister Ron Liepert with the sweet talking Gene Zwozdesky.

(And of course, in January 2008, an expected slow news week turned into a media firestorm for this political blogger.)

January 2010 kicked-off a year of political instability (as much as can be imagined in Alberta politics) and January 2011 kicked-off a year of returning to stability (with the replacement of Premier Stelmach with Premier Alison Redford). Will January 2012 kick-off a year of status-quo or big changes on Alberta’s political scene?

In an attempt to avoid the wrath of whatever from high atop the thing, I will not be as bold as other political watchers to predict the exact outcome of the next election. I will predict that the big political change of 2012 will come in the form of new names on the ballot rather than a new party in office. After forty years in office, the Progressives Conservatives have a tight grip on the biggest political stick in Alberta.

“Change from within” is what my Tory friends said when Premier Stelmach led them into the 2008 election and “change from within” is what they are saying as Premier Redford leads them in this year’s election.