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Alberta Politics

10 things I’m watching in Alberta politics in 2024

From the price of oil to the influence of right-wing populist groups to the NDP leadership race and more

January is usually a quiet month in politics, making it a good time to look ahead at what to expect in the year to come. Here are ten things I will be watching that could have a big impact on Alberta politics in 2024:

1. Price of oil

Alberta is probably the only province where the international price of oil is at the top of the Premier’s daily briefing notes. The price of oil not only has a big impact on a lot of Albertans’ jobs, but also the provincial government’s revenue stream.

Relying heavily on the price of oil to pay for the day to day operations of public services, the Alberta government’s 2023/2024 budget projected as much as 25 percent of its revenue will come from oil and gas royalties.

If we go into this coming fiscal year starting April 1 with $72 per barrel, that might put the government into a situation where they either have to revise their spending plans or face a modest deficit,” University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe told CBC.

In Alberta, governments live and die by the price of oil.

2. Influence of right-wing populist and separatist groups

Without a doubt the influence of populist and separatist groups has grown in Alberta politics in recent years. Nowhere is this more pronounced than inside the governing United Conservative Party since Danielle Smith became Premier in October 2022 after riding the wave of populist discontent that pushed out former premier Jason Kenney.

In the closing months of 2023, newly elected UCP President Rob Smith spent nearly two hours on a livestream hosted by Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Chris Scott and past Independence Party of Alberta candidate Kerry Lambert.

The APP has advocated for the creation of a Republic of Alberta and is currently calling for a referendum on Alberta’s independence from Canada. Scott gained notoriety in conservative circles during the COVID-19 pandemic when his restaurant in the central Alberta hamlet of Mirror remained open in contravention of public health rules.

Also, in the final days of 2023, the UCP highlighted an endorsement from University of Calgary professor Barry Cooper in its year-end fundraising pitch on social media. Cooper has compared Alberta to pre-revolutionary colonial America in 1775 and has called for a referendum on separation from Canada. He is also a co-founder of the Free Alberta Strategy, an autonomist documentchampioned by Premier Smith’s Chief of Staff Rob Anderson.

And, on January 24, Smith will host and interview American media personality and conspiracy theorist Tucker Carlson at an event in Calgary that has been promoted by the APP and other influential right-wing groups like Alberta Proud, and Take Back Alberta (which is reported to be under investigation by Elections Alberta).

3. The race to replace Rachel Notley

It is hard to imagine the modern Alberta NDP without Rachel Notley, but she announced last week that she will not lead the NDP into the 2027 election and will step down as leader when her successor is chosen, likely later this year.

The leadership race jockeying has already begun, with at least five MLAs sending signals that they plan to run: Calgary-Mountain View MLA Kathleen Ganley, Edmonton-Glenora MLA Sarah Hoffman, Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi, Edmonton-City Centre MLA David Shepherd, and Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse.

The NDP Provincial Council will meet on January 27 to discuss timelines and rules for the leadership race. The winner of the race will lead the 38-MLA NDP Caucus into 2025 and the party into the 2027 provincial election.

I am planning to write a lot more about this leadership race in the weeks and months to come.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta NDP name change pushed by group led by former MLA

Alberta’s Progressive Future calls for Alberta NDP to distance itself from the Ottawa NDP

When I worked for the Alberta Liberal Party back in the 2000s, we had an inside joke that the Liberals could run Jesus Christ as a candidate in Wainwright and still lose. It was funny because it was probably true (the last time voters in Wainwright elected a Liberal MLA was in 1909) and was a reflection of how cynical we were that the party had any chance of actually winning any seats in rural Alberta.

I imagine more than a few Alberta NDP supporters felt the same when the results of the 2023 election started rolling in on May 29, 2023. Despite making big gains in Calgary and winning 38 seats province-wide, the party’s hopes of forming government were dashed at the city limits.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith hosts Alberta’s largest call-in talk show: the United Conservative Party

Any good talk radio host understands that the show doesn’t belong to the host, it belongs to the listeners. And if this past weekend’s annual general meeting is any indication, talk radio host-turned-Premier Danielle Smith might be taking a similar approach as leader of the United Conservative Party.

Aside from a nod to protecting parental rights during her keynote speech, Smith largely stood out of the way as more than 3,700 delegates packed into Calgary’s BMO Centre to vote on party policy and elect a new executive board. It was an impressive crowd and probably the largest provincial political convention in Alberta’s history.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith’s post-election honeymoon is over

The seasons are changing and it’s not just the weather – the political seasons are changing too.

The first snow has fallen and the cold north winds are blowing across Alberta. The seasons are changing and it’s not just limited to the weather – the political seasons are changing too.

Five months after the 2023 provincial election, Alberta’s politicians will be back in the provincial capital on October 30 to start the first substantial sitting of this Legislative Assembly. MLAs met shortly after the election to choose a Speaker for the new Assembly (Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper) but this fall’s session will see Premier Danielle Smith’s re-elected United Conservative Party government introduce its legislative agenda.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith enjoys a honeymoon summer

It’s been a quiet, but not boring, post-election summer in Alberta

Conventional wisdom tells us that the summer months are a quiet and boring time in politics, but not so in Alberta. It’s not often there is an actual quiet and boring political summer in this province.

Two summers ago was the Best Summer Ever disaster and the summer before that was the first COVID-19 summer. Before that was the Summer of Repeal.

And last summer, one of the most unexpected political comebacks happened right before our eyes. Former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith, who had been written off by most political watchers after her disastrous decision to cross the floor in 2014, defined the summer of 2022 and the United Conservative Party leadership vote that followed.

But this year’s political summer was a fairly quiet, albeit incredibly smoky, affair.

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Alberta Politics

Saddle up. Calgary Stampede politics are back.

Dust off your cowboy boots and hat. It’s that time of year again. It’s the Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth. It’s the Calgary Stampede.

The Stampede is a must attend event for politicians of all stripes. Aside from the actual rodeo (the Chuckwagon races are a must see), the free pancake breakfast and BBQ circuit is unparalleled and a huge opportunity for local, provincial and federal politicians to connect with Calgarians. Proper attire is key, as is the ability to wear it properly.

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Alberta Politics

Bringing Jason Nixon and Ric McIver back into cabinet was smart politics

It has been almost two weeks since Alberta Premier Danielle Smith named her new 24-member cabinet and a lot of ink has been spilled dissecting what the appointments could mean for the start of the United Conservative Party’s second term as government and the next four years.

There are big challenges facing the new cabinet, especially for ministers appointed to high-profile positions. But what caught my attention among the appointments was the return of two former cabinet ministers who were pushed into the backbenches when Smith entered the Premier’s Office last October.

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Alberta Politics

A short history of leaders’ debates in Alberta elections

United Conservative Party leader Danielle Smith and Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley will face each other at 7:00 pm tonight in the only televised leaders debate of Alberta’s election campaign.

This is the first time Alberta has had a TV debate featuring only two party leaders, but both people taking the stage have experience doing this before.

This is Notley’s third televised debate since 2015 and it’s Smith’s second.

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Alberta Politics

The UCP was a political juggernaut in 2019 but four years changed a lot in Alberta politics

It’s amazing how much can change in four years.

The United Conservative Party won big in Alberta’s 2019 election, taking 63 seats in the Alberta Legislature and earning 54.8 per cent of the province-wide vote. The party racked up huge margins of victory in rural ridings and swept Calgary.

It was a juggernaut.

It also wasn’t clear on that election night if the Alberta NDP would be able to recover from their defeat. It felt unlikely.

That the UCP is now neck-and-neck with the NDP in most polls with only 24 days left until the next election says a lot about the UCP’s four years as government and the NDP’s time in opposition.

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Alberta Politics

Independent MLA Drew Barnes not running for re-election, two new right-wing parties announced

As the first day of Alberta’s provincial election winds down, I have a few quick candidate nomination updates to share.

Barnes not running

He waited until almost the very last minute, but Independent MLA Drew Barnes announced through a video posted on social media that he will not seek re-election for a fourth term as the MLA for Cypress-Medicine Hat.

Barnes was first elected in 2012 as a Wildrose Party MLA and was re-elected under the Wildrose banner in 2015. He won a third-term in 2019 as a United Conservative Party candidate but was removed from the UCP Caucus in 2021 after two years of being a general thorn in then-premier Jason Kenney‘s side.

Party on the right

The Wildrose Loyalty Coalition (not to be confused with the Wildrose Independence Party) is now an official registered political party recognized by Elections Alberta.

The new party is led by former Wildrose Independence and Wildrose Alliance Party leader Paul Hinman, who was pushed out of his role as leader of the WIP last year. Two-time Wildrose Party candidate and UCP nominee aspirant Danny Hozack is the party president.

And there is always room for one-more fringe party on the political right in Alberta.

Pastor Artur Pawlowski, known for his 11-minute phone call with Premier Danielle Smith and his ousting as leader of the Independence Party of Alberta, was joined by former Conservative Member of Parliament Rob Anders (who is still listed as a board member of the Wildrose Independence Party) to announce they are forming another new political party – The Solidarity Movement of Alberta.

Meanwhile, the Pro-Life Alberta Political Association (formerly known as the Social Credit Party) has nominated Lucas Hernandez as their candidate in Calgary-Mountain View. Hernandez carried the party banner in Calgary-Currie in 2019, where he earned 60 votes.

The CBC’s Jason Markusoff recently wrote an analysis of the Alberta Pro-Life Political Association, a political party that acts like a political action committee.

The Independents

There are also a handful of people who have registered as candidates with no party affiliation who will run as Independents.

They include Andrew Lineker in Edmonton-McClung, Graham Lettner in Edmonton-Gold Bar, Jody Balanko in Strathcona-Sherwood Park, and Matthew Powell in Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright.

Powell sought the Freedom Conservative Party nomination in the riding in 2019 (FCP joined with Wexit Alberta to become the Wildrose Independence Party in 2021).

Total Nominated candidates

Here are the total nominated candidates running in Alberta’s provincial election:

  • United Conservative Party: 87/87
  • New Democratic Party 87/87
  • Green Party: 31/87
  • Alberta Party: 18/87
  • Liberal Party: 12/87
  • Independence Party of Alberta: 7/87
  • Advantage Party of Alberta: 3/87
  • Communist Party: 3/87
  • Wildrose Independence Party: 2/87
  • Buffalo Party 1/87
  • Pro-Life Political Association: 1/87
  • Wildrose Loyalty Coalition 1/87

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Daveberta Substack Podcast Alberta Politics Election Dave CournoyerI will continue to post candidate nomination updates on this website but subscribe to the Daveberta Substack to read my latest Alberta election coverage. My most recent piece covers how the UCP and NDP kicked-off the election, the role that Conservative Party MPs are playing in the election, and how the two main parties are spending money on digital advertising.

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Alberta Politics

UCP completes its slate of 87 candidates by nominating political staffer Nick Kalynchuk in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

The United Conservative Party has filled their slate of 87 candidates with the nomination of Nick Kalynchuk as their candidate in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood.

Kalynchuk is a staffer in Premier Danielle Smith‘s office and was Vice-President of the United Conservative Club at the University of Alberta. He started working in the Premier’s office during Jason Kenney‘s time as Premier and previously worked for the UCP Caucus.

Kalynchuk will face Alberta NDP MLA Janis Irwin, Green Party candidate Kristine Kowalchuk and Communist Party leader Naomi Rankin.

Irwin was elected in 2019 with 63.4 per cent of the vote. The NDP have held the riding since it was created in 2004.

NDP slate to be filled by April 30

NDP leader Rachel Notley announced today that her party would have their full slate of 87 candidates nominated by April 30.

Also announced today: Harry Singh will be nominated as the party’s candidate in Drayton Valley-Devon on April 30.

Total Nominated candidates

Here is the current list of nominated candidates:

  • United Conservative Party: 87/87
  • New Democratic Party 80/87
  • Green Party: 30/87
  • Alberta Party: 13/87
  • Liberal Party: 8/87
  • Independence Party of Alberta: 5/87
  • Advantage Party of Alberta: 3/87
  • Communist Party: 3/87

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Daveberta Substack Podcast Alberta Politics Election Dave CournoyerIf you haven’t already, please subscribe to the Daveberta Substack. I am planning to share most of my writing for the upcoming Alberta election on Substack.

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Alberta Politics

Justin Wright defeats James Finkbeiner in Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP vote, Paul Hinman starting another new Wildrose Party

Food truck owner Justin Wright defeated former Western Standard vice-president of operations James Finkbeiner to win the United Conservative Party nomination in Cypress-Medicine Hat.

Wright is the owner of the Fryer Tuck’s food truck and catering, which also runs a number of concessions around Medicine Hat. He ran for city council in 2021 and is the chairman of the Spectrum Festival committee.

Drew Barnes Wildrose MLA Cypress Medicine Hat
Drew Barnes

Wright is expected to face MLA Drew Barnes, who has represented the riding since 2012 and is widely believed to be running for re-elected as an Independent candidate. Barnes was kicked out of the UCP Caucus in 2021 for being a general thorn in the side of former premier Jason Kenney.

But despite being elected as a Wildrose MLA at the same time as Danielle Smith in 2012, Barnes was not welcomed back into the UCP tent after the new premier was sworn-in to office last October.

The Alberta NDP have nominated Prairie Rose Public Schools chairperson Cathy Hogg. Hogg has served as a trustee on the school board since 2013.

Paul Hinman’s Wildrose Loyalty Coalition

A screenshot from Paul Hinman’s Facebook Page.

Months after he was removed as leader of the Wildrose Independence Party, it appears as though Paul Hinman is starting another new Wildrose Party.

The appearance of a new “Wildrose Loyalty Coalition” banner on Hinman’s Facebook page and the appearance of the group on the “Reserved Party Names” list maintained by Elections Alberta caught the attention of some political watchers. And a website for the new party now confirms it.

‘Albertans are in a dysfunctional relationship with Ottawa and must take control of our future. We shall determine our path forward, NOT legacy political parties who divide the people, usurp freedoms, and enforce ruinous social, economic, and environmental policies,’ says a statement on the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition website that also lists Hinman as leader.

Hinman has a long history in Alberta politics and best-known for having served as Wildrose MLA in two separate ridings and as leader of that party before Danielle Smith became leader in 2009.

But more recently, he served as the founding leader of the separatist Wildrose Independence Party, which was a merger of the Freedom Conservative Party and the Wexit Alberta group, from 2020 until he was ousted in 2022. Hinman loyalists briefly retook control over the party before their takeover was overruled in courts.

Other nomination updates

  • The UCP has set April 3 as the date for its nomination vote in Grande Prairie. Gladys Blackmore, Nolan Dyck, Larry Gibson, and Tayyab Parvez are in the race to succeed retiring MLA Tracy Allard as the candidate in that northern Alberta riding.
  • Daniel Birrell has been nominated as the Green Party candidate in Spruce Grove-Stony Plain.

Upcoming nomination votes

With around 70 days left until Election Day, the Alberta NDP and the UCP have both nominated candidates in 77 of Alberta’s 87 ridings. The Green Party has 27 candidates, the Alberta Party has nominated 12 candidates and the Liberal Party has one.

Candidate nomination votes are currently scheduled for the following dates:

  • March 18 – Leduc-Beaumont UCP
  • March 18, 19, 20 – Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre IP
  • April 1 – Calgary-North East UCP
  • April 3 – Grande Prairie UCP

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NDP leader Rachel Notley nominated in Edmonton-Strathcona, Chelsae Petrovic wins UCP ‘do-over’ vote in Livingstone-Macleod

Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley was nominated as her party’s candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona this past weekend. Speaking to a crowd of more than 800 supporters gathered at the Northern Alberta Institute of Technology, Notley delivered an energetic speech that felt like a campaign kick-off for the former premier’s party.

Notley was first elected as MLA for the central Edmonton riding in 2008 and was re-elected in 2019 with 72.2 per cent of the vote. The riding has elected NDP MLAs since 1997 and the party previously held the riding from 1986 to 1993.

UCP choose Claresholm Mayor in ‘do-over’ nomination vote in Livingstone-Macleod

Chelsae Petrovic and Rebecca Schulz UCP nomination Livingstone Macleod
Claresholm Mayor Chelsae Petrovic and UCP leadership candidate Rebecca Schulz in 2022 (source: Chelsae Petrovic/Facebook)

Town of Claresholm Mayor Chelsae Petrovic won the United Conservative Party‘s ‘do-over’ nomination vote in Livingstone-Macleod. Petrovic defeated Tanya Clemens and Don Whalen in a decisive first ballot victory. Petrovic earned 759 votes with Clemens collecting 469 votes and Whalen finishing third with 118 votes.

This is the UCP’s second time holding a nomination vote in the southern Alberta riding.

Former People’s Party candidate Nadine Wellwood was the only candidate in a previous nomination race held in November 2022 after MLA Roger Reid withdrew the day after the entry deadline. Wellwood was then disqualified by the UCP provincial board of directors.

Crowsnest Pass Municipal Councillor Lisa Sygutek wrote about the nomination vote and what she describes as Take Back Alberta’s takeover of the local UCP constituency association.

The NDP have nominated well-known conservationist and author Kevin Van Tighem and Nanton town councillor Kevin Todd is running for the Alberta Party.

Bouchard wins 5-way UCP race in Calgary-Lougheed

Restaurant manager Eric Bouchard defeated Sherrisa Celis, Max DeGroat, Mark Fiselier, and Michelle Mather to win the UCP nomination in Calgary-Lougheed.

Bouchard told the Western Standard that the opposition to the NDP government’s decision to raise the minimum wage to $15/hour in 2018 was a reason he ran for the nomination. A quick glance at his twitter feed suggests that opposition to COVID-19 public health restrictions is a more recent reflection of his politics.

The riding was represented by former premier Jason Kenney from 2017 until his resignation in November 2022.

NDP members in the riding voted to select Venkat Akkiraj over Kim Wagner in that party’s nomination vote this week. Akkiraj is a law student and former organizer with the Ontario NDP.

City Councillor jumps into Grande Prairie UCP race

City Councillor Gladys Blackmore is the fourth candidate to enter the UCP nomination contest in Grande Prairie. Blackmore served on City Council from 2001-2010 before making an unsuccessful bids for mayor in 2010 and 2013. She returned to city council in 2021.

She joins Nolan Dyck, Larry Gibson, and Tayyab Parvez in the race to choose a UCP successor to retiring MLA Tracy Allard.

The UCP MLA for the neighbouring Grande Prairie-Wapiti riding, Finance Minister Travis Toews, has still not announced whether he plans to run for re-election. Toews is now the only remaining MLA who has not announced their plans for the May election.

Hinshaw critic wins UCP nomination in Lethbridge-West

Torry Tanner defeated Rick Dempsey to win the UCP nomination vote in Lethbridge-West. Tanner was a participant in an unsuccessful lawsuit against former Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw challenging Alberta’s COVID-19 public health restrictions.

The riding is currently represented by NDP Shannon Phillips.

Other nomination updates

Calgary-Foothills: The Alberta Party disqualified Shaoli Wang as a candidate after a series of embarrassing social media posts were revealed. Wang will instead run as an Independent candidate.

Cypress-Medicine Hat: James Finkbeiner and Justin Wright are on the ballot when UCP members vote to nominate a candidate on March 16. The riding is currently represented by Independent MLA Drew Barnes.

Edmonton-City Centre: Richard Wong is the UCP candidate in this downtown Edmonton riding.

Leduc-Beaumont: Heather Feldbusch, Nam Kular, Brandon Lunty, Dawn Miller, Dave Quest, and Karen Richert are running for the UCP nomination. A vote is scheduled for March 18.

Peace River: Nancy O’Neill is running for the Independence Party of Alberta nomination.

Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre: Former Clearwater County Reeve Tim Hoven will run as an Independent candidate. Hoven was disqualified from running for the UCP nomination against Jason Nixon last year. It was widely believed that Hoven could have defeated Nixon, who was then serving as former premier Kenney’s chief lieutenant.

Upcoming nomination votes

With just over 80 days left until Election Day, the Alberta NDP have nominated candidates in 77 of Alberta’s 87 ridings. The United Conservative Party has candidates named in 76 ridings and the Green Party has 26 candidates. The Alberta Party has nominated 12 candidates and the Liberal Party has one.

Candidate nomination votes are currently scheduled for the following dates:

  • March 16 – Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP
  • March 18 – Leduc-Beaumont UCP
  • March 18, 19, 20 – Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre IP
  • April 1 – Calgary-North East UCP

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Alberta Politics Daveberta Podcast

Episode 85: Naheed Nenshi on Calgary in Alberta’s 2023 election

Former Calgary mayor shares his thoughts on Danielle Smith, Rachel Notley and the city he calls home ahead of Alberta’s provincial election.

Former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi joins the Daveberta Podcast to talk about provincial politics in Alberta’s largest city, the upcoming election, and The Last of Us and the city’s film industry.

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The Daveberta Podcast is hosted by Dave Cournoyer and produced by Adam Rozenhart.

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Alberta Politics

Hey Big Spender! United Conservative Party leadership fundraising reports released.

Elections Alberta has released the financial disclosures from the candidates who ran in the 2022 United Conservative Party leadership race to replace Jason Kenney.

Here is the total revenue of each candidate’s campaign:

Danielle Smith – $1,363,036.36
Travis Toews – $1,215,711
Rajan Sawhney – $458,496.88
Brian Jean – $388,750.43
Rebecca Schulz – $377,704.09
Todd Loewen – $241,896.00
Leela Aheer – $63,894.08

Withdrawn candidates
Jon Horsman – $50,440.00
Raj Sherman – $22,055.56
Bill Rock – $5,574.35

Some quick points of interest in these numbers.

  • 30 per cent of Smith’s donations were in amounts of $250 and lower compared to only 13 per cent for Toews.
  • Smith finished the campaign with a $26,792.39 deficit, Jean with a 38,477.40 deficit, and Aheer with a whopping $172,462.02 deficit.

I’ll be sharing more thoughts on this soon, probably on the Daveberta Substack.