Tag Archives: Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election

Laila Goodridge wins UCP nomination to run in Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election

Laila Goodridge has been chosen as the United Conservative Party candidate in the upcoming Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election. The yet to be called by-election is required following the resignation of UCP MLA and former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean in March 2018.

Laila Goodridge United Conservative Party

Laila Goodridge

According to Fort McMurray Today reporter Vincent McDermott, Goodridge won the nomination with 52 percent of the vote on the second ballot. She defeated longtime conservative party campaign manager Willie Hoflin, social worker Elizabeth Keating, and eight-term Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Phil Meagher in the nomination contest.

Her nomination candidacy had been endorsed by UCP MLAs Leela Aheer, David Hanson, Jason Nixon, Todd Loewen and Conservative MPs Matt Jeneroux and Dane Lloyd.

Goodridge worked as a political staffer in Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa, including as a constituency assistant for former Calgary-Centre MP Joan Crockatt. She was director of field operations for Jean’s UCP leadership campaign in 2017. She was also the Wildrose candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in the 2015 election where she placed third behind PC incumbent Wayne Drysdale and New Democrat Mary Dahl.

Goodridge was considered a potential candidate for the Conservative nomination in the 2014 by-election in Fort McMurray-Athabasca that was held to replace Jean when he resigned from federal politics in 2015.

Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud is seeking the New Democratic Party nomination, which is scheduled to take place on May 10, 2018.

Here is a look at the vote share by party in Fort McMurray-Conklin in general elections in 2012 and 2015:

Results of the 2012 and 2015 elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Results of the 2012 and 2015 elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Oneil Carlier, Shannon Phillips, Sonya Savage, and Tyler Shandro.

Alberta Candidate Nomination Updates: 2 NDP cabinet ministers announce re-election and 3 more UCP MLAs plan to retire.

Photo: Oneil Carlier, Shannon Phillips, Sonya Savage, and Tyler Shandro.

Nominations are picking up speed.

Three more United Conservative Party MLAs have announced their plans to retire when the next election is called. Grande Prairie-Wapiti MLA Wayne Drysdale, Livingstone-Macleod MLA Pat Stier and Little Bow MLA David Schneider will not seek re-election in 2019.

Schneider changed his minds after previously announcing plans to seek re-election in the new Cardston-Siksika district. His entry into that contest forced Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Grant Hunter to seek the UCP nomination in the neighbouring Taber-Warner district, even though he lives in Cardston. It is not yet known whether Hunter will now run for the UCP nomination in what will soon be his home district of Cardston-Siksika.

Environment and Parks Minister Shannon Phillips has filed her intentions with Elections Alberta to run for the New Democratic Party nomination in Lethbridge-West. Phillips was first elected as MLA in 2015 with 59 percent of the vote.

Also running for re-election is Agriculture and Forestry Minister Oneil Carlier, who told XM105FM that he will seek the NDP nomination in the newly redrawn Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland district. Carlier currently represents the Whitecourt-Ste. Anne district, which will no longer exist when the next election is called.

Independent MLA Derek Fildebrandt is agitating in Chestermere-Strathmore. After being banned from rejoining the UCP caucus in February 2, 2018 after a string of embarrassing scandals, Fildebrandt has essentially accused his former party of being afraid of an open nomination contest in the new district. The theatrical former finance critic accused the UCP of “Trudeau-style affirmative action” for not allowing him to run against popular Chestermere-Rockyview UCP MLA Leela Aheer.

As first reported on this blog on April 7, 2018, Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud will seek the NDP nomination in the upcoming Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election. The UCP have set May 1, 2018 as the date for their candidate nomination vote.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, candidate Joel Loh was not allowed to join the UCP nomination contest and has since endorsed Red Deer County councillor Christine Moore.  UCP members in that district will select a candidate in a vote at the end of the month.

Here are some of the other nomination updates from around the province:

Calgary-Acadia – Lawyer Tyler Shandro is seeking the UCP nomination. Astute followers of Alberta politics might recall Shandro’s role in the EdStelmach.ca incident. Good luck and govern yourself accordingly, Tyler.

Calgary-Currie – Amoriza Gunnink is seeking the UCP nomination. Gunnink is the founder of the Kinderhouse Preschool. Tony Norman is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Norman was his party’s candidate in this district in the 2015 election.

Calgary-East – Pradeep Singh is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-FalconridgeHappy Mann is seeking the UCP nomination. Mann was the Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-McCall in the 2015 election and the 2012 Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-Cross.

Calgary-Glenmore – Maureen Zelmer is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Mountain ViewDean Brawn is seeking the UCP nomination. Brawn was a candidate for Calgary City Council in Ward 7 in the 2017 municipal election.

Calgary-North WestSonya Savage is seeking the UCP nomination. She is the Senior Director of Policy & Regulatory Affairs at Canadian Energy Pipeline Association. In 2011, she served as co-chair of Rick Orman’s campaign for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party.

Drumheller-Stettler – MLA Rick Strankman is seeking the UCP nomination. Strankman was first elected in 2012 as a Wildrose Party candidate.

Edmonton-EllerslieYash Sharma is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Sharma is the Publisher of the Asia Tribune and producer of Harmony TV and in 2016 he was one of 32 candidates to run in the Ward 12 by-election.

Edmonton-South WestKevin Greco is seeking the UCP nomination.

Lethbridge-East – Brian Litchfield is seeking the UCP nomination.

Morinville-St. Albert – Dale Nally and Trina Jones have entered the UCP nomination contest. Jones is currently serving as Deputy Mayor of the Town of Legal

Sherwood ParkJordan Walker is seeking the UCP nomination. Walker and Strathcona-Sherwood Park nomination candidate Nate Glubish are being endorsed by Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan Member of Parliament Garnett Genuis, who is hosting a meet and greet for the two candidates on April 27, 2018. Genius was the 2012 Wildrose Party candidate in Sherwood Park.

Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright – Two-time Wildrose Party candidate Danny Hozack is seeking the UCP nomination. Hozack earned 37 percent of the vote in 2012 and 33 percent of the vote in 2015. He is seeking the nomination against Garth Rowswell, his campaign manager from the 2015 election.

West Yellowhead – MLA Eric Rosendahl is seeking the NDP nomination. He was first elected in 2015 with 39 percent of the vote.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

Episode 10: Week 300 of the Trans Mountain Pipeline debate, and predictions for Alberta’s 2019 Election.

This episode includes analysis from Dave Cournoyer and Ryan Hastman about week 300 of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipeline dispute (including updates from Ryan, who was behind enemy lines in Vancouver) and the latest candidate nomination updates ahead of Alberta’s 2019 election.

So you want to be a candidate?

Ryan leads this week’s ‘So you want to be a candidate‘ segment with useful tips for Albertans wanting to run in next year’s election. And we answer a big question from listener Eric Grenier about the Rachel Notley NDP’s chances of re-election.

The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial. The network includes more than 30 podcasts, including one of our favourites, The Expats.

Listen and subscribe on Apple PodcastsGoogle Play, and wherever you find podcasts online. If you leave a review on Apple Podcasts before May 31, 2018, you will be entered into a contest that will include awesome (and yet to be determined) prizes.

We’d love to hear what you think of this episode, so feel free to leave a comment on this blog, Facebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

We are always grateful for our producer, Adam Rozenhart, for his help in making this podcast a reality. This episode was recorded over Google Hangout.

Thank you for listening!

Update: When we recorded this episode, we mentioned that NDP MLA Shannon Phillips had not yet announced her plans to seek re-election. The day after we record this episode, Phillips announced her plans to seek re-election in Lethbridge-West.

Shelly Shannon Kathleen Ganley Christina Gray Beth Barberree Alberta Election Nomination candiates

Sunday Night Candidate Nomination Update

Photo: Shelly Shannon, Kathleen Ganley, Christina Gray, and Beth Barberree

The New Democratic Party has scheduled its nomination meeting in Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10, 2018. A by-election is needed in this district following the resignation of United Conservative Party MLA Brian Jean. Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud is expected to seek the NDP nomination.

Willie Hoflin is the fourth candidate to join the UCP nomination contest in Fort McMurray-Conklin. Hoflin’s website describes him as a 40-year Syncrude employee and past campaign manager for former Fort McMurray MLAs Guy Boutilier and Adam Germain. Hoflin left the PC Party in June 2010 to join the Wildrose Party.

Here are some other recent updates to the list of candidates running for nominations ahead of Alberta’s expected 2019 provincial election:

Calgary-AcadiaAmina Beecroft is seeking the UCP nomination. Beecroft is an accounting and finance instructor at Mount Royal University. She is the former president of the Calgary-Acadia Progressive Conservative Association and the current president of the UCP in that district.

Calgary-BowHarry Fleming is seeking the UCP nomination in Calgary-Bow. Fleming is an assistant with Harper & Associates, the company founded by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper after the Conservative Party of Canada’s defeat in the 2015 election. He also served as Calgary vice-president of the Progressive Conservative Youth of Alberta from 2016 to 2017 and president of the University of Ottawa Conservative Club from 2014 to 2015.

Calgary-CurrieNicholas Milliken is seeking the UCP nomination. Milliken is a lawyer and CEO of  Brolly Legal Recruitment. He is the great grandson of Alberta MLA William Howson, who represented Edmonton in the Alberta Legislature from 1930 to 1936 and led the Alberta Liberal Party from 1932 to 1936.

Calgary-EdgemontBeth Barberree is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Barberree is a practicing massage therapist and the owner of Massage at the Club. She was the Alberta Party candidate in Calgary-Hawkwood in the 2015 election, earning 4.5 percent of the vote.

Calgary-Mountain View – On April 14, Minister of Justice and Solicitor General Kathleen Ganley became the first NDP candidate officially nominated to run in the next election. Ganley was first elected as the MLA for Calgary-Buffalo in 2015, but recently announced she would seek re-election in the neighbouring Calgary-Mountain View district. The district is currently represented by four-term Liberal MLA David Swann, who has announced he plans to retire from politics when the next election is called.

Camrose – Rob Johnson is seeking the UCP nomination. Johnson ran for the Wildrose Party nomination in Battle River-Wainwright in 2011 and was the Wildrose candidate in Strathcona-Sherwood Park in the 2015 election, earning 23 percent of the vote.

Edmonton-City Centre – Robert Philp is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Philip is a former judge and in June 2014 was appointed Chief of the Commission and Tribunals, Alberta Human Rights Commission.

Edmonton-Mill Woods – The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting to take place on May 6, 2018. Incumbent MLA and Minister of Labour Christina Gray is expected to be nominated. Gray was first elected in 2015, earning 64 percent of the vote.

Lacombe-Ponoka – MLA Ron Orr is seeking the UCP nomination. Orr was first elected as a Wildrose Party MLA in 2015, earning 35 percent of the vote. In November 2017, the former Baptist pastor suggested that the legalization of marijuana in Canada could lead to a communist revolution.

Lethbridge-East – The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting for May 6, 2018. Incumbent MLA Maria Fitzpatrick is expected to be nominated. Fitzpatrick was first elected in 2015, earning 47 percent of the vote. Unlike most southern Alberta districts, Lethbridge-East has a long history of bucking the province-wide conservative trend. From 1993 to 2011, this district was represented by Liberal MLAs Ken Nicol and Bridget Pastoor. Pastoor crossed the floor to the PCs in 2011 and was re-elected in 2012.

Peace RiverShelly Shannon is the fifth candidate to enter the UCP nomination contest in this district. Shannon is the advertising manager of the Postmedia owned Peace River Record Gazette and is the past president of the Peace River and District Chamber of Commerce. She previously served as a regional director for the now-defunct PC Party.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

Updates: Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin by-elections. Jane Stroud expected to seek NDP nomination.

Photo: Christine Moore, Gayle Langford, Laila Goodridge and Jane Stroud.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

The United Conservative Party has announced the nomination period to choose a candidate for the upcoming Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election. The deadline for candidates to enter the nomination contest is April 16 and a vote will held on April 28. The by-election must be called by August 5, 2018.

Seven candidates have now entered the race to replace UCP MLA and UCP Rural Crime Task Force member Don MacIntyre in the central Alberta district of Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. MacIntyre resigned in February 2018 after he was charged with sexual assault and sexual interference. He was first elected as a Wildrose MLA in 2015.

Along with already declared candidates Devin Dreeshen, Joan Barnes, Gayle Langford, and Mike Walsh, three additional candidates have entered the race since I last wrote about this nomination contest:

  • Christine Moore – Councillor in Red Deer County representing the area between Sylvan Lake and Red Deer city limits. She ran in the 2015 election as the Progressive Conservative candidate in Red Deer-North where she placed third with 22 percent of the vote behind New Democrat Kim Schreiner and Wildroser Buck Buchanan.
  • Joel Loh is vice-president of Regulatory Affairs & public relations at Simba Industries Transload Ltd. and affiliated with something called the Committee for Proud Alberta Fair Trade Oil (editor comment: I’m not sure they understand the definition of Fair Trade). Loh served as the president of the Canadian Alliance association in Calgary-Southwest in the early 2000s. He was disqualified from running for the Alliance nomination in Calgary-Centre ahead of the 2004 election, according to a 2003 report from the Calgary Herald.
  • Victor Sloboda is a plumbing and gas inspector with the City of Red Deer.

The only other party to nominate a candidate thus far is the Reform Party, which will be represented by its leader, Randy Thorsteinson.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

Another by-election will need to be called in the Fort McMurray-Conklin district following the resignation of UCP MLA and former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean. Jean was first elected as MLA for this district in 2015 and served as Leader of the Official Opposition Wildrose Party from 2015 until 2017, when he stepped down to join the UCP leadership contest.

The district was first created in the 2012 election from the southern and eastern half of the formerly larger Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo district. Jean was first elected in 2015 with 43 percent of the vote ahead of New Democrat Ariana Mancini with 30 percent and PC MLA Don Scott with 22 percent (Scott was elected Mayor of Wood Buffalo in October 2017).

Sources tell this blogger that Wood Buffalo Municipal Councillor Jane Stroud is planning to seek the NDP nomination to run in Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election. Since 2010, Stroud has represented Ward 4, which includes the communities of Gregorie Lakes Estates, Anzac, Janvier and Conklin. She was named a ‘Woman of Inspiration’ by Girls Inc. of Northern Alberta in 2017.

Three candidates have announced their plans to run for the UCP nomination contest in this district:

Goodridge and Meagher were considered potential candidates for the Conservative nomination in the 2014 by-election that was held to replace Jean when he resigned from federal politics in 2015.

Unlike Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, which is largely untouched by the boundary redistribution, this district will be significantly redrawn when the next election is called, with most of the district’s population becoming part of a new Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche district.

Here is a look at the vote share by party in Fort McMurray-Conklin in general elections in 2012 and 2015:

Results of the 2012 and 2015 elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Results of the 2012 and 2015 elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Candidate Nomination Update: Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Mountain View and Bonnyville-St. Paul-Cold Lake

Photo: Central Calgary, with Calgary-Buffalo located south of the Bow River and Calgary-Mountain View located to the north.

It has been a while since I have posted a nomination update, so here are a few of the big nomination related stories that have caught my attention over the past few weeks:

Liberal Swann not seeking re-election

David Swann Liberal MLA Calgary-Mountain View

David Swann

Alberta’s lone Liberal MLA has announced that he will not seek re-election in the 2019 provincial election. David Swann was first elected as MLA for Calgary-Mountain View in his party’s 2004 breakthrough in that city and he later served as party leader from 2008 to 2011 and 2015 to 2017. His departure in the next election will mark the first time since 1986 that the Liberal Party will not have an incumbent MLA running for re-election in a general election.

Ganley running in Mountain View

On the same day as Swann’s announcement, Minister of Justice and Solicitor General Kathleen Ganley announced she would seek re-election in Calgary-Mountain View, across the river from the Calgary-Buffalo district she currently represents. Ganley will become the New Democratic Party‘s first nominated candidate of the 2019 election on April 14 when she is expected to be acclaimed at a nomination meeting in Calgary-Mountain View.

Ceci running in Buffalo

Kathleen Ganley Alberta MLA

Kathleen Ganley

Ganley’s move across the river to Mountain View allows for Finance Minister Joe Ceci to run for re-election in Calgary-Buffalo. Redistribution of the electoral boundaries has added areas from Ceci’s Calgary-Fort district into Calgary-Buffalo, including the neighbourhood he lives in.

The move allows the NDP to avoid two senior cabinet ministers challenging each other for the same district nomination ahead of the next election. It also moves Ceci into what could be expected to be more friendlier territory than the new Calgary-Peigan district, which encompasses much of the rest of the Calgary-Fort district.

Calgary-Buffalo is the historically least conservative district in Calgary, with voters in that district having elected Liberal or NDP MLAs in 8 of the past 10 elections.

Cyr vs. Hanson in Bonnyville-St. Paul-Cold Lake

Scott Cyr MLA Bonnyville-Cold Lake

Scott Cyr MLA Bonnyville-Cold Lake

While the NDP have been able to avoid incumbent MLAs challenging each other for nominations, the United Conservative Party has not. In northeast Alberta, two UCP MLAs are running against each other for the past nomination in the new Bonnyville-St. Paul-Cold Lake district. Bonnyville-Cold Lake MLA Scott Cyr and Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills MLA David Hanson have seen their districts significantly redrawn, with one less district in that region of the province to reflect population changes.

Had UCP MLA Brian Jean not resigned as MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin, Hanson might have run for his party’s nomination in the new Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche district. But Jean’s resignation means a by-election to choose a new MLA will need to take place in Fort McMurray-Conklin before the next election. If a UCP candidate is elected in that by-election, they will presumably run for re-election in the new Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche district.

Political parties in Alberta have generally avoided the type of scenarios that would pit two incumbent MLAs from the same party against each other.

I can only recall one example of two incumbent MLAs from the same party challenging each other for a nomination in the same district. Ahead of the 1993 election, Edmonton-Kingsway MLA Alex McEachern and Edmonton-Jasper Place MLA John McInnis both sought the NDP nomination in the newly redrawn Edmonton-Mayfield district. McEachern won the nomination contest and McInnis ended up running in another district across the city.

More updates on the way…

I am planning to post additional updates about the growing list of nomination candidates in the next few days. But in the meantime, if you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.


Green Party leader resigns

“Effective immediately I have tendered my resignation from the role of leader of the Green Party of Alberta,” was the one-line statement posted on the Green Party website by leader Romy Tittel on March 24. Tittel was chosen as party leader in November 2017 and ran under her party’s banner in the Calgary-Lougheed by-eleciton.

Green Party president Marco Reid posted online that the party’s executive council would be calling a meeting to discuss this affair further. The party is scheduled to hold its policy conference in Calgary on May 5, 2018.

Premier Rachel Notley met with steel workers during a tour of the Tenaris Prudential welded pipe mill in Calgary on Feb. 8, 2018. (photography by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)

Notley NDP set to roll out their next legislative agenda. Brian Jean departs Alberta politics.

With the next provincial election expected to be a little more than one year away, Alberta’s MLAs will return to the Legislative Assembly for the new session on Thursday.

This session will mark the first time that Premier Rachel Notley and Official Opposition leader Jason Kenney will publicly face each other in debate. Expectations are high. But while both leaders are talented debaters and skilled politicians, don’t expect high-minded debate. Thick partisan rhetoric and talking points will continue to dominate the discourse in this Legislative session.

And with one year left until the next election, much attention will be paid to the provincial budget.

With the province’s economic fortunes improving, expect pipeline-champion Notley to boast about her government’s decision to weather the recession without making the deep funding cuts to health care and education that the opposition conservatives have called for.

The decision not to impose deep budget cuts was smart, but the government still faces a significant revenue shortfall. A decades long over dependence on revenue from natural resource royalties to pay for the day to day operations of public services needs to be addressed to provide long-term financial stability for Alberta.

While it is unlikely that this issue will be addressed in this Legislative session, Albertans deserve an honest discussion about our low levels of taxation and the role taxes play in funding the public services Albertans depend on each day.

The final year before the writ is dropped is typically seen as a period where governments conduct house-keeping and tie up loose ends as they prepare to enter full re-election mode. Here is a look at some of the legislation that the NDP government is expected to introduce in this spring session of the Legislature:

  • The NDP are expected to lead their legislative agenda with an act that will implement some of the initiatives recommended by the Energy Diversification Advisory Committee last month.
  • The government will introduce supports for economic diversification initiatives including the renewal of existing tax credits and the creation of new tax incentives, including an Interactive Digital Media Tax Credit.
  • With the federal government planning to implement the legalization of marijuana this year, the Alberta government is also expected to introduce two bills creating a regulatory framework and rules around the creation of a tax structure for the cannabis industry.
  • The government is also expected to introduce legislation addressing some of the recommendations from the Standing Committee on Resource Stewardship review of the Lobbyists Act. The all-party committee reviewed the act last year and submitted recommendations in July 2017.
  • Following the introduction of a private members’ bill related to Henson Trusts by Calgary-Currie MLA Brian Malkinson last year, the government is expected to introduce a bill related to discretionary and non-discretionary trusts as assets when determining individual eligibility for the AISH program.
  • Recognizing the role of Alberta grown food, the government is expected to proclaim an annual Local Food Week.
  • And after numerous recent natural disasters, the government is expected to introduce a bill expanding the authority of the enforcement of evacuation orders and creating a Municipal Emergency Management regulation to define the responsibilities of municipalities under the Act.

Goodbye, Brian JeanBrian Jean United Conservative Party Leadership Wildrose

Less than three years since Brian Jean jumped into provincial politics, the former Leader of the Official Opposition announced today that he has resigned as the MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Jean’s departure is not a surprise. His lack of critic role in the United Conservative Party caucus after his defeat to Kenney in the party’s 2017 leadership race signalled that Jean was likely looking to depart the provincial scene.

A former Member of Parliament, Jean took over the thankless role of leader of the Wildrose Party as his party was teetering on the brink of the abyss following the mass floor crossing of most of the party’s MLAs in late 2014. To most people’s surprise, he led his party to win 21 seats in the 2015 election.

A by-election will be called in Fort McMurray-Conklin within the next six months.


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Alberta MLAs to watch in 2018: Leela Aheer, Shaye Anderson, Deron Bilous, Joe Ceci, Rick Fraser, Sandra Jansen, Brian Jean, Danielle Larivee, Jessica Littlewood, Shannon Phillips, David Shepherd and Richard Starke.

12 Alberta MLAs to watch in 2018

Photo: Alberta MLAs to watch in 2018: Leela Aheer, Shaye Anderson, Deron Bilous, Joe Ceci, Rick Fraser, Sandra Jansen, Brian Jean, Danielle Larivee, Jessica Littlewood, Shannon Phillips, David Shepherd and Richard Starke.

Despite its past reputation, Alberta politics has become extraordinarily unpredictable over the past twelve years. This makes forecasting the future a very tricky business for political pundits.

As is tradition on this blog, each year I publish a list of Alberta MLAs that I will be watching closely in the new year. Beyond the obvious choices, like Premier Rachel Notley or United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney, I try to look into the government and opposition benches to see who could make the news next year.

Here are the MLAs I will be watching in 2018:

Leela Aheer (UCP – Chestermere-Rockyview): Aheer was a staunch supporter of former Wildrose leader Brian Jean during the 2017 UCP leadership race, but when the dust settled, a victorious Kenney appointed her as Deputy Leader of the UCP caucus. Her private members’ bill, Bill 206: the Child, Youth and Family Enhancement (Adoption Advertising) Amendment Act, which aimed to bring the process of adoption into the digital age by allowing prospective adoptive parents to go online through licensed adoption agencies, was passed after a remarkably civil debate in 2017.

Shaye Anderson (NDP – Leduc-Beaumont): Anderson is charming and has just the kind of average working-man appeal that the NDP government needs. Appointed to cabinet in 2017, the Municipal Affairs Minister will oversee the implementation of the new City Charters and a reformed Municipal Government Act in 2018. With talk of the AUMA and AAMDC merging and increasing pressure on the NDP to reform municipal election finance laws, Anderson’s role at the cabinet table could become more important in 2018.

Deron Bilous (NDP – Edmonton-Beverly Clareview): As Economic Development and Trade Minister, Bilous has led successful trade missions to China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States. With the province’s economy growing but unemployment rates remaining unchanged, he faces the challenge of proving the government’s job creation plan is working as the provincial economy recovers from the sharp decline of international oil prices.

Joe Ceci (NDP – Calgary-Fort): With Alberta’s economy projected to have grown between 3.9 percent and 6.7 percent in 2017, the Finance Minister will implement what Notley describes as “compassionate belt-tightening.” The NDP need to present a more defined budget plan, but it should not just focus on spending. Alberta has a revenue problem and if we should have learned anything since the international price of oil collapsed in 2014, it is that we should not depend on royalty revenues from oil and gas to fund the day to day operations of our public services. And did I mention he is a champion of Alberta’s booming craft brewing industry?

Rick Fraser (Independent – Calgary-South East): The former PC MLA left the UCP caucus in September 2017, citing concerns about the party’s position on climate change and social issues. There were strong rumours that Fraser would join the Alberta Party caucus in 2017, but the resignation of Greg Clark as party leader may have put any floor-crossing plans on hold.

Sandra Jansen (NDP – Calgary-North West): Appointed to cabinet in 2017, the former PC MLA plays a big role in Notley’s charm offensive in Calgary. As Minister of Infrastructure, Jansen has a powerful spot at the cabinet table, allowing her to champion the construction of big capital projects like the new Calgary Cancer Centre and the completion of the city’s ring road. She should spend less time arguing with Conservative partisans on Twitter and more time trying to boost her government’s fortunes in Calgary.

Brian Jean (UCP – Fort McMurray-Conklin): The former leader of the Wildrose Party disappeared from public sight after losing the UCP leadership to Kenney. As the only Official Opposition MLA without a critic role, there were questions raised about whether Jean will stick around until the 2019 election or whether Albertans can expect a by-election to be held in Fort McMurray-Conklin in 2018. But in a year-end interview with Fort McMurray Today, Jean says he is not planning on leaving politics in 2018.

Danielle Larivee (NDP – Lesser Slave Lake): A rising star in the Alberta cabinet, Larivee was shuffled from Municipal Affairs to Children’s Services in 2017 to quell a political scandal, which she appears to have successfully done. She launched and expanded Alberta’s $25 per day child care program, which will have a real positive impact on a lot of Alberta families.

Jessica Littlewood (NDP – Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville): Appointed as parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Economic Development and Trade with responsibilities for small business, Littlewood is another rising star in the NDP caucus. With a potential cabinet shuffle ahead in 2018, I would not be surprised if she is appointed to a full cabinet position.

Shannon Phillips (NDP – Lethbridge-West): The Environment and Parks Minister continues to champion the Alberta government’s high-profile Climate Leadership Plan. The plan has led to the creation of Canada’s lowest renewable electricity rates, but a focused opposition campaign by its Conservative critics has led to mass confusion about the goal of the carbon levy. Phillips will have a big challenge ahead of her in 2018 to explain how the NDP’s plan to combat climate change will have a positive impact on individual Albertans ahead of the 2019 election.

David Shepherd (NDP – Edmonton-Centre): With 1,200 votes counted, Shepherd was chosen as the Up and Comer to Watch in 2018 in the Best of Alberta Politics 2017 Survey. He is a hard-working, well-spoken and passionate MLA who has excelled at communicating online, in-person and on the floor of the Assembly.

Richard Starke (Progressive Conservative – Vermilion-Lloydminster): The former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister and leadership candidate opted not to join his fellow PC MLAs when they joined the Wildrose-heavy UCP caucus in July 2017. He instead decided to remain a PC MLA in the Assembly. Like his former PC colleague Rick Fraser, there were strong rumours in 2017 that Starke could join the Alberta Party caucus.

Compare this list of Alberta MLAs to watch to previous lists from 201720162015 and 2014.