Tag Archives: Eric Grenier

Amarjeet Sohi Justin Trudeau in Edmonton Mill Woods

Trudeau campaigns with Sohi in Edmonton-Mill Woods, Conservatives fill a full slate of candidates in Alberta

With less than 100 days until Canada’s federal election, the political parties are continuing to nominate candidates in Alberta ahead of the October 21, 2019 vote. The Conservative Party has now nominated candidates in all of the province’s 34 electoral districts, and other main parties, the Liberal Party, New Democratic Party, and Green Party are slowly beginning to fill their slates. The right-wing People’s Party of Canada has chosen candidates in all of the province’s federal electoral districts.

And here are some of the latest updates to this list of candidates nominated and running for nominations ahead of the October 2019 federal election:

Battle River-Crowfoot: Damien Kurek defeated former Ontario MP Jeff Watson and teacher Jefferson McClung to win the Conservative Party nomination in the sprawling east central rural Alberta district of Battle River-Crowfoot. Kurek works as a constituency assistant in retiring MP Kevin Sorenson‘s office and previously worked as a researcher for the Saskatchewan Party Caucus in Regina. Previous to this bid, Watson served as the Conservative MP for Essex from 2004 to 2015 before moving to Alberta and running for the United Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Peigan in 2018.

Calgary-Confederation: Jordan Stein defeated Todd Kathol and Larry Ottewell to secure the Liberal Party nomination in Calgary-Confederation. Stein was the provincial NDP candidate in Calgary-Glenmore in the recent provincial election where she earned 32 percent of the vote and placed second behind UCP candidate Whitney Issik. Calgary-Confederation was the home of the Liberal Party’s highest vote total in the 2015 federal election, with then-candidate Matt Grant earning 29,083 votes to Conservative candidate Len Webber’s 30,669 votes.

Calgary-Forest Lawn: William Carnegie has been nominated as the Green Party candidate in this east Calgary district. Carnegie is the president of the Forest Lawn Community Association and ran for the provincial Green Party in 2019 in Calgary-East, earning 2.3 percent of the vote.

Edmonton-Centre: Katherine Swampy is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Edmonton-Centre on July 22, 2019. Swampy is a councillor with the Samson Cree Nation, member of the board of directors for Peace Hills Trust, and previously ran for the NDP in the 2015 provincial election in Drayton Valley-Devon and the 2015 federal election in Battle River-Crowfoot. She endorsed Niki Ashton in the federal NDP’s 2017 leadership race.

Edmonton-Greisbach: Well-known youth worker and social advocate Mark Cherrington and business-owner Victoria Stevens are seeking the NDP nomination in this east Edmonton district. The NDP had their second strongest showing in Alberta in this district in 2015, with Janis Irwin earning 34 percent to Conservative candidate Kerry Diotte‘s 39 percent. Irwin was elected as the MLA for Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood in the 2019 provincial election.

Brian Gold has announced his plan to seek the yet to be scheduled Liberal Party nomination in this district. Gold earned 21.6 percent of the vote as  the Liberal Party candidate in Edmonton-Greisbach in 2015, and he later earned 12 percent of the vote in the 2017 Sturgeon River-Parkland by-election.

Edmonton-Mill Woods: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in Edmonton last week to speak at the nomination meeting acclaiming MP Amarjeet Sohi as the Liberal Party candidate in the upcoming election. Sohi was first elected in 2015 and currently serves as Minister of Natural Resources. Before his jump into federal politics, Sohi served on Edmonton City Council from 2007 to 2015.

NDP organizer Nigel Logan seeking his party’s in Edmonton-Mill Woods at a meeting expected to be held on July 24, 2019. Logan was a candidate for Edmonton City Council in Ward 12 during the 2017 municipal election, where he earned 11.4 percent of the vote. Logan currently works as a constituency assistant to Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MP Linda Duncan.

The previous NDP candidate in this district, Jasvir Deol, was elected as the NDP MLA for Edmonton-Meadows in April 2015.

Edmonton-Strathcona: Sam Lilly defeated Julia Bareman to secure the Conservative Party nomination. Lilly was endorsed by Diotte and former Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA David Dorward. Activist and owner of the Earth’s General Store Michael Kalmanovitch has been nominated as the Green Party candidate.

This south central Edmonton district has been represented by NDP MP Linda Duncan since 2008. Duncan is not seeking re-election.

Lethbridge: Shandi Bleiken defeated Sheldon Krul to win the NDP nomination in this southern Alberta district. Bleiken is a community activist and former president of OUTreach Southern Alberta. The NDP candidate in the 2015 federal election placed second with 20.5 percent of the vote.

Banff-Airdrie: Jaro Giesbrecht has announced his intention to seek the Liberal Party nomination in Banff-Airdrie, which has not yet been scheduled. Giesbrecht recently ran for the provincial Liberal Party in Calgary-Peigan, earning 1.9 percent of the vote.

Peace River-Westlock: Julie Asterisk and Peter Nygaard are seeking the Green Party nomination in this north west Alberta district, scheduled for August 3.

Asterisk works in communications and fund development with the Keepers of the Athabasca organization and was the program coordinator with the Slave Lake Native Friendship Centre. She was the Green candidate in Fort McMurray-Athabasca in the 2011 election, where she earned 4.5 percent of the vote.

Nygaard is owner and operator of a plumbing and gas fitting business in Joussar. He and his wife, Shahla, wrote the book Decade of Discovery which chronicles their decade-long bike trip through Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South America.

Please contact me at david.cournoyer@gmail.com for additions or updates related to candidate nominations in Alberta and I will add them to the list.


Daveberta on the CBC Pollcast

I was thrilled to join Eric Grenier on the CBC Pollcast podcast this week to discuss Alberta’s political landscape ahead of the October 2019 federal election, with a specific focus on Calgary-Centre, Calgary-Confederation, Calgary-Skyview, Edmonton-Centre, Edmonton-Greisbach, Edmonton-Mill Woods, and Edmonton-Strathcona.

Can the opposition win any of the 4 by-elections?

Cheffins_Campaign_067

The Liberals celebrate a victory in the 2007 Calgary-Elbow by-election. Left to Right: MLA David Swann, victorious candidate Craig Cheffins, Liberal leader Kevin Taft, MLA Dave Taylor and MLA Harry Chase.

Can the opposition parties win any of the four provincial by-elections being held on October 27, 2014?

The by-election votes will take place in four urban constituencies that were considered safe for the Progressive Conservatives in the 2012 election. With a change in provincial leadership and a volatile political environment, these by-elections do provide opportunities for the opposition parties to make gains.

Greg Clark Alberta Party MLA Calgary ElbowGreg Clark Alberta Party MLA Calgary Elbow

Greg Clark

In Calgary-Elbow, Wildrose candidate John Fletcher appears to be PC candidate and appointed Education Minister Gordon Dirks‘ main conservative challenger and challenges from two other liberal-leaning candidates could create an interesting result in Calgary-Elbow.

Liberal Susan Wright and Alberta Party leader Greg Clark are running strong campaigns competing for the same liberal and moderate voters that Mr. Dirks will need to win against his more conservative opponent. Mr. Clark has gained the support of 2012 PC Party campaign strategist Stephen Carter and 2012 Liberal Party campaign manager Corey Hogan, who are both heavily involved in his campaign.

Liberal MLA Craig Cheffins was able to win this constituency in a 2007 by-election at a time when the Liberals were Official Opposition and the Tories were led by new PC leader Ed Stelmach, who was unfamiliar to most Calgary voters at the time. In 2014, the field of candidates and parties is much more crowded and unpredictable.

Retired popular Edmonton Mayor and newly appointed Health Minister Stephen Mandel is widely expected to glide to victory in the Edmonton-Whitemud by-election (his predecessor, Dave Hancock was re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2012).

Dr Bob Turner NDP Edmonton-Whitemud By-election

Dr. Bob Turner

Mr. Mandel’s vocal opponents are trying to make health care and the provincial government’s lack of long-term infrastructure planning the big issues of the by-election campaign.

New Democrat Dr. Bob Turner has come out swinging with an aggressive campaign against the new Health Minister and his comments about “bed blockers” in the health care system.

Both Dr. Turner and Liberal candidate Dr. Donna Wilson have made south west Edmonton’s aging and overcrowded Misericordia Hospital a focus of their campaigns. Dr. Wilson held a press conference outside the Misericordia Hospital yesterday and today the NDP will hold a lunch-hour rally outside the facility.

Wildrose leader Danielle Smith chose the campaign office of Whitemud candidate Tim Grover to announce her party’s health care funding plan, including promises of $100 million to front-line care, $50 million to home care and $50 million to reopen long-term care beds. The Wildrose Party also released a series of election campaign-style online videos attacking the PCs.

Tim Grover Wildrose Edmonton Whitemud By-election

Tim Grover

Statistician Eric Grenier predicts Wildrose candidate Sheila Taylor could win the Calgary-West by-election. Ms. Taylor, a now former trustee on the Calgary Board of Education, is a star candidate for the Wildrose in Calgary. She is facing Calgary police officer Mike Ellis, who unsuccessfully ran for the PC nomination before the 2012 election.

Premier Jim Prentice‘s recent announcement to build an additional 55 new schools and renovate another 20 is certainly meant to boost Mr. Dirks’ and weaken Ms. Taylor’s candidacy. Quick to respond, Mr. Clark’s campaign set up a website detailing the schools Mr. Dirks voted to close during his time on the Calgary Board of Education.

Running as a candidate in the Calgary-Foothills by-election, Mr. Prentice faces his main challenge from Wildrose candidate Kathy Macdonald, a 20-year veteran of the Calgary Police Service. Foothills has voted solidly PC since 1967 and while it is easy to assume that Mr. Prentice’s job as Premier makes him a shoe-in, he should not take voters for granted. Mr. Grenier has classified Foothills are a “tossup” between the PCs and Wildrose.

There is nothing more the opposition parties would love than to see a sitting Premier defeated in his own constituency. A loss in Foothills might be unlikely, but a loss of even one of the four by-elections would be a sign that the PCs, even under “new management,” remain politically vulnerable. By-elections can be risky for incumbent governments, especially when voters are eager to use their votes to send a message.


Upcoming all-candidates forums

Calgary-Foothills all-candidates forum: October 15, 8:30pm at the Edgemont Community Association (33 Edgevalley Circle NW).

Edmonton-Whitemud all-candidates forum: October 20 at 7:30 p.m. at Snow Valley Chalet. Hosted by the College of Physicians & Surgeons of Alberta and the College and Association of Registered Nurses of Alberta.

Edmonton-Whitemud all-candidates forum: October 22 from 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. at the Riverbend United Church (14907 – 45 Avenue NW). This forum is hosted by Whitemud Citizens for Public Health.

Right-wing Sun News tries to rescue Conservative fortunes in Calgary-Centre.

Justin Trudeau Harvey Locke

Justin Trudeau and Harvey Locke

Just when it seems like Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt was losing ground and a tight three-way contest in the Calgary-Centre by-election, right-wing cable channel Sun News swooped in with news that will stir up the anti-Liberal sentiments among Conservative voters in the riding. Boasting that it has discovered a “breaking exclusive,” the channel roasted Mr. Trudeau for comments made during an interview in late 2010:

“Canada isn’t doing well right now because it’s Albertans who control our community and socio-democratic agenda. It doesn’t work.”

There is no one who can get angry conservatives worked up in this province like a Trudeau.

Chris Turner Calgary-Centre Green By-election

Chris Turner

Mr. Trudeau is on a leadership tour through British Columbia and Alberta this week, having campaigned with Liberal by-election candidate Harvey Locke in Calgary-Centre and rallying a crowd of more than 400 party faithful in downtown Edmonton.

Following Liberal MP David McGuinty‘s comments earlier this week, the release of Sun News’ “breaking exclusive” of Mr. Trudeau’s two year-old anti-Alberta comments is miraculously well-timed for the Conservatives. It feels as if the Conservative campaign in Calgary-Centre got exactly what it was asking for.

Polling since August has shown Mr. Locke in second place and Green Chris Turner gaining momentum in Calgary-Centre.

Over the course of the campaign, Ms. Crockatt’s has opted to avoid numerous public all-candidate forums in favour of canvassing doors. Interestingly, the campaign found time in its busy schedule yesterday to stop by Sun News studios in Calgary to denounce Mr. Guinty’s comments on a talk show hosted by vicious right-winger Ezra Levant.

Ms. Crockatt’s sudden appearance on the right-wing talk show has everything to do with her campaign’s slip in the polls, which is seen by many to be a result of her campaign’s connections to the right-wing Wildrose Party.

Joan Crockatt Conservative Calgary-Centre By-Election

Joan Crockatt

It should be noted that the connections between Sun News, the federal Conservative Party, and the Wildrose Party are deep.

Sun News has been nothing short of a cheerleader for both the opposition Wildrose Party in Alberta and Conservatives in Ottawa. Even staff appear to be interchangeable. Candice Malcolm, the current Director of Research for Sun News is the former executive assistant to Wildrose leader Danielle Smith and spokesperson for Conservative politician Jason Kenney.

The strong connections between the federal Conservatives and the Wildrose Party is suspected to have driven away many moderate conservatives, who support Alison Redford‘s governing Progressive Conservatives and see the by-election campaign as too closely associated with the hard right-wing provincial party (including campaign manager, William McBeath, is also on staff with the Wildrose Party). These connections are believe to have contributed to near evaporation of the 40% margin of victory that former MP Lee Richardson earned in the 2011 election.

Threehundredeight.com analyst Eric Grenier has looked beyond the politics and has analyzed the numbers, and his a recent post, he suggests that more disenchanted Conservative voters are shifting to the Greens, rather than the Liberals.

This movement of Tories to the Greens in Calgary-Centre seems to be supported by Donal O’Beirne, the former president of the Conservative association in Calgary-North East, who has endorsed Mr. Turner, and the launch of a new Facebook Group, “Progressive Conservatives 4 Turner“, which sprung up this week.

One senior provincial Tory suggested to me this week that the Wildrose Party now “controls almost the entire federal Conservative Party in Alberta,” suggesting that the split between the provincial and federal Tory parties will be very difficult to mend.

If the Conservatives are not able to win the riding on the November 26 vote, or even if the results are close, the by-election should be a warning to the Ottawa Tories that their support of the Wildrose Party could cause moderate Albertans to park their votes elsewhere.

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A new poll was released by Return on Insight today. The poll shows Mr. Crockatt with 37% to 32% for Mr. Locke and 17% for Mr. Turner.

While I am naturally skeptical of all polls, I am immediately skeptical of this poll due to ROI owner Bruce Cameron‘s close connections to the Liberal campaign in Calgary-Centre (watch this video from October 21, 2012, where Mr. Locke talks about the work Mr. Cameron is doing for his campaign).