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Alberta Politics

pre-election games: progressive conservatives and wildrose spar with new ads.

As the Spring 2012 provincial election approaches, the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose Party have rolled out a series of television ads (on YouTube) delivering their political pitches to Albertans.

The Wildrose ads, as David Climenhaga and Graham Thomson have already written, are cast with two faces of leader Danielle Smith.

To quote Mr. Climenhaga, ‘Bad Danielle is going to slap you around a bit now for even thinking about voting for Alberta Premier Alison Redford… while she’s gone, Good Danielle may offer you a cup of coffee, apologize for her partner’s behaviour and try to sweet-talk you out of your troubles…”.

The first Wildrose ad, ‘Flip Flop’, takes a negative angle and could be confused with the Conservative Party ads from the last federal election. Accentuating the negative, these types of ads were deadly for federal Liberal leaders Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff.

The second Wildrose ad features leader Ms. Smith speaking about education, which I believe may be the best of the ads released by any party so far. Ms. Smith is clear, confident, and shockingly warm for a conservative politician (though I still would not trust the former Calgary School Trustee to run our education system).

The first of the two Progressive Conservative ads introduces Premier Redford and the second ad features the Premier talking about the promise of education. They are rather plain and fuzzy feeling, which is surprising considering Premier Redford’s interesting background (including her surprisingly extensive international experience).

The theme of the PC ads appears to be ‘look how good your quality of life is,’ which appears to be a reaction to the negative tone of Wildrose ads. Although they cry for excitement, these dull and numbing ads should not hurt the PCs so long as they do not linger too far into the Harry Strom-like “don’t even think about doing anything drastic like voting for another party’ because ‘we’ve renewed… really… we have… a new leader… look at our exciting new leader!’ territory.

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Alberta Politics

the cast of alberta politics: the motion picture.

Politics in Alberta is not always easy for outsiders to understand. Forty years of uninterrupted Progressive Conservative majority governments have given the province a reputation of being a politically homogenous monolith.

The myth of Alberta as a western frontier where tarsands-rich oilmen and rugged cowboys rule the plains, perpetrated by an endless stream of CBC television dramas, could not be further from the truth. Alberta is a dynamic province, where urban rules and politics is less conservative and more moderate than most outsiders might assume.

It occurred to me that rather than spending millions of dollars to replicate lame advertising campaigns promoting our Spirit to Create and Freedom to Achieve (wait… or is it our Freedom to Create and Spirit to Achieve, or Freedom to Spirit…??), the true story of Alberta (and its politics) might be told through a blockbuster motion picture. A blockbuster political drama cast with big name Hollywood stars could not only explain Alberta’s story, but it might win some Academy Awards (and get a good score on Rotten Tomatoes).

I just started writing the Aaron Sorkin-inspired screenplay and that has not stopped me from sending out a casting call to actors who I believe would be perfect playing in these roles.

Allison Janney as Alison Redford
Allison Janney as Premier Alison Redford
Antonio Banderas as Raj Sherman
Antonio Banderas as Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman
Selma Blair as Danielle Smith
Selma Blair as Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith
John C Reilly as Brian Mason
John C Reilly as NDP leader Brian Mason
Aaron Eckhart as Education Minister Thomas Lukaszuk
Aaron Eckhart as Education Minister Thomas Lukaszuk
Jon Lithgow as Finance Minister Ron Liepert
Jon Lithgow as Finance Minister Ron Liepert
William H. Macy as Hugh MacDonald
William H. Macy as Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald
Guy Richie as Chief of Staff Stephen Carter
Guy Richie as Chief of Staff Stephen Carter

Please feel free to share your feedback for other actors to cast or plot points in the comment section below.

Categories
Alberta Politics

in alberta politics, what once was old is new again.

Premier Alison Redford is expected to introduce new fixed-election date legislation in the postponed fall sitting of the Assembly, expected to sit in late November. In 2009, I wrote:

“In April 2008, St. Albert PC MLA Ken Allred introduced a Private Member’s Bill, Bill 203: Election Statutes (Fixed Election Dates), in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta that would have created fixed-election dates in our province. The Bill received very little public debate in the Legislature and was opposed by MLAs in the PC caucus, including Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Richard Marz, who argued to the media that fixed-election dates would allow public sector unions to strike in conjunction with elections.

In May 2008, Marz introduced a motion that “Bill 203, the Election Statutes (Fixed Election Dates) Amendment Act, 2008, be not now read a second time but that it be read a second time this day six months hence.” Marz’s motion was passed when 36 PC MLAs (including Allred) out-voted 5 opposition MLAs.”

Now it is November 2011, the Progressive Conservatives are still in office, Premier Ed Stelmach is gone, Premier Redford is in, Mr. Marz is retiring, Mr. Allred is being challenged for the PC nomination (and may retire), and Alberta might get fixed-election dates.

The Alberta Liberals announced with a gleeful media release this week that Alex MacDonald would be joining their caucus staff as a part-time strategist. Political watchers may remember Mr. MacDonald as the Chief of Staff to former Edmonton Mayor and Liberal Party leader Laurence Decore in the 1980s and early 1990s.

A seasoned strategist, Mr. MacDonald is said to be the man behind Mr. Decore’s infamous ‘debt clock’ that helped launch the Liberals into Official Opposition status in the 1993 election (and their best showing since the 1917 election). While the addition of Mr. MacDonald may boost their roster, it eats into the narrative that Tory MLA-turned-Liberal leader Dr. Raj Sherman is promoting about the birth (or re-birth) of the “new Liberals.”

Also biting into Dr. Sherman’s “new Liberals” narrative is the nomination of five former one-term MLAs as his party’s candidates in five potentially winnable constituencies – Mo Elsalhy in Edmonton-McClung, Bharat Agnihotri in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Weslyn Mather in Edmonton-Mill Woods, Rick Miller in Edmonton-Rutherford, and Bruce Miller in Edmonton-Glenora. Some of these are good candidates, but certainly not new.

A new face in the next election, Wildrose leader Danielle Smith has floated in conservative political circles since the 1990s and two of her party’s four MLAs have been in the Assembly for more than a decade. The “nascent” or “rookie” Alberta Party has existed in various forms since the 1980s and their leader Glenn Taylor ran for the NDP in the 1997 election.

Refusing to believe that new will ever be old or old will ever be new, the New Democrats have put a fresh face on an veteran politician. NDP leader Brian Mason has a fresh face – at least for the short-term – as he has shaved his mustache for Movember to raise awareness about prostate cancer. Mr. Mason has told the media that his trademark cookie-duster will return, meaning that once again, old will be new again.

NDP leader Brian Mason sans mustache
The new face of Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason (sans mustache).
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Alberta Politics

wildrose behind mysterious ‘push poll’ attacking alison redford.

Politics in Alberta got a little meaner this week when word of a new ‘push poll’ attacking Premier Alison Redford began to circulate among political circles.

In typical push poll fashion, the automated telephone survey asks participants to answer a series of loaded negative questions about Premier Redford, and then respond to whether they would be likely to vote for her or not. The expected results of this push poll should show participants having a negative opinion of the Premier.

Alleging the Premier has supported evil federal Liberal childcare policies and targeting the financial woes of her Chief of Staff Stephen Carter (who is incorrectly described as the top civil servant), the push poll is obviously meant to illicit a negative reaction towards to Premier.

The big question left unanswered before today was who exactly was behind this push poll. The tone and slant of the questions strongly suggested that the authors of this push poll are very sympathetic to the cause of Danielle Smith and her Wildrose Party – and this evening, intrepid CBC reporter Charles Rusnell reported that the Wildrose is, in fact, behind the nasty push poll.

Care of David Climenhaga‘s Alberta Diary blog, here is the audio of the notorious push poll that attacks Premier Redford:

Push-Poll Questions by djclimenhaga

Categories
Alberta Politics

tick tick tick… defusing ed stelmach’s tory time-bomb.

Tick Tick Tick...
Tick Tick Tick...

Restoring $107 million into the provincial Education budget, committing to hold an inquiry into the intimidation of doctors, promising increased consultations on water management, and halting (after some fumbling) the approval of two controversial electrical transmission line projects through rural Alberta, Premier Alison Redford is quickly moving to defuse the electoral time bomb of unpopular decisions made by her predecessor, Ed Stelmach.

Premier Redford’s first moves appear to be geared towards taking away the most controversial issues that the opposition parties have gained traction on in the last year’s of Stelmach’s premiership.

A recently released Angus Reid online survey (to be taken with a grain of salt, of course) conducted between October 17 to October 19, 2011, revealed an interesting snapshot and positive news for Premier Redford:

– Voting Intention: Progressive Conservatives 44%, Wildrose Party 22%, Liberals 16%, New Democrats 13%, Alberta Party 2%
– Best Premier: Alison Redford 32%, Danielle Smith 15%, Raj Sherman 8%, Brian Mason 6%, Glenn Taylor 1%

The online survey shows Premier Redford with a 55% approval rating, twenty-points higher than her closest opponent, Wildrose Party leader Ms. Smith. The three main opposition leaders, including Ms. Smith, registered higher leadership disapproval ratings than approval ratings among those surveyed.

The online survey shows the Tories leading in support across the province, with the Wildrose placing second in Calgary and rural Alberta, and the Liberals essentially tied with the NDP for second in Edmonton. The Alberta Party barely registers in the online survey, showing only 2% support province-wide and 4% in Calgary.

The online survey also suggested that the selection of Dr. Sherman as their leader has not cured the Liberal Party of their electoral ills. Of those surveyed who identified themselves as having voted Liberal in 2008, when that party was led by Edmonton-Riverview MLA Kevin Taft, only 56% said that they would vote Liberal if an election were held tomorrow.

Redford may be besting Ms. Smith in the world of online surveys, but that does not mean the Wildrose has been plucked. At a fundraiser in Calgary, Ms. Smith attracted an audience of more than 1,100 people, leaving some politicos to suspect the Wildrose raised more than $400,000 in one night (more than any of the other opposition parties could dream of). Despite numerous bumps in their nomination process, the Wildrose Party is continuing to nominate candidates across the province with now close to 60 of 87 on the ground.

Even the NDP, who have showed up perpetually in third place over the past two decades, are looking better prepared for an election than they have in recent memory and will soon have just as many candidates nominated as the Wildrose.

Of course, even a week is an eternity in politics, and with an election expected sometime early in 2012 there is much that can change. Polls and surveys provide useful snapshots, but campaigns matter.

Categories
Alberta Politics

craig chandler launches anti-wildrose facebook group.

Fresh from his campaign to get right-winger Bill Harvey elected as leader of the Liberal Party, ultra-conservative activist Craig Chandler and his acolytes have now set their sights on Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party.

Mr. Chandler has pushed his internet campaign machine into high-gear by adding hundreds of his Facebook friends to a new group of supposed former Wildrose Party members. The attacks are centred around the disqualification of federal Libertarian Party leader Dennis Young as a candidate for the Wildrose nomination in Calgary-Hays. The following media release was posted on the wall of the Facebook group:

Dennis Young To File Injunction & Suing For Damages
Removed Calgary Hays Soldier Starts Group
Many Frustrated Members & X-Members Involved

(Calgary) After submitting his signatures, memberships, nomination fee, signing up hundreds of memberships, demon dialing the constituency, dropping two separate pieces of literature to every residence, door knocking 25% of the entire area and with a six month delay, retired soldier and successful business owner, Dennis Young has been terminated as a candidate by the Wildrose Party.

“I am devestated by this and I feel really taken advantage of. On October 3rd, I discovered via a letter by the Executive Director of the party, Shane Saskiw, I was disqualified from the nomination race in Calgary-Hays. In that letter there was no reason for the disqualification mentioned. Also, I was not advised that my candidacy for the nomination was in question, nor was I given an opportunity to defend myself personally against whatever accusations may have been brought against me. Further, I had my interview with the Local Candidate Nominating Committee roughly six months ago, submitted my paperwork and my nomination fee. If I was going to be disqualified, I would have expected to be informed of it at that time.” stated Dennis Young. Read the rest of this extraordinary long media release.

If you are not familiar with Mr. Chandler, please refer to the comments he made in this media interview, which contributed to him being disqualified as the Progressive Conservative candidate in Calgary-Egmont in 2007. Mr. Chandler later managed Mark Dyrholm‘s unsuccessful leadership campaign against Ms. Smith in 2009. Near the end of that campaign, Mr. Chandler accused the media of holding a bias in favour of Ms. Smith.

Categories
Alberta Politics

why early opposition attacks on alison redford will backfire.

Danielle Smith Alberta Wildrose No Plan
Left: No Plan ads from 2008 election. Right: Wildrose attack ads in 2011.

Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party has launched a series of negative television ads against soon-to-be Premier Alison Redford, who will be sworn-in as Premier tomorrow in Edmonton. The television ads bear an eerie resemblance to the negative ads used by Nancy MacBeth‘s Alberta Liberals in the 2001 election and the “No Plan” ads aired by the ‘Albertans for Change‘ coalition in the 2008 election.

The Wildrosers early attack ads are a page out of the federal Conservative Party election campaign textbook, which should not come as a surprise considering that Ms. Smith has surrounded herself with federal Tory activists, including Vitor Marciano, William McBeath, Ryan Hastman, and Steven Dollansky.

The most obvious differences between Ms. Redford and successful targets of federal Conservative smear campaigns are that:

1) she is not a Liberal, she is a Conservative
2) the PCs have a massive majority government in the Assembly and are still the best-organized and most well-funded political organization in the province, and
3) I believe that Albertans have generally been impressed with what they have seen of her so far.

Is it too early for the opposition parties to be lobbing grenades at the yet to be sworn-in Premier Redford? Ms. Redford was selected as leader at around 1:30am on October 2 and at 4:45pm, Wildrose attack dog Rob Anderson had already sent out a media release criticizing her. Always a gentleman, Mr. Anderson later tweeted that he would take a break from attacking Ms. Redford on Wednesday so that she could attend her mother’s funeral. How compassionate of Mr. Anderson.

Rob Anderson Twitter MLA Wildrose
Wildrose MLA Rob Anderson's October 5 tweet.

With the next general election expected within six months, the Wildrosers have decided to strike a negative tone, starting with attack ads and releasing a list of forty mistakes they say that the PCs have made during their forty years in government. The PCs have made many mistakes, but Albertans will reject the negative tone of the Wildrosers just as they have rejected the negative tone of the other opposition parties year after year. It is not enough to just remind Albertans that the Tories have become a monument to institutional mediocrity after forty years in government. Albertans know that because they voted for the PCs. Opposition parties need to take an extra step to give Albertans compelling and positive reasons to support them at the polls, something the Wildrosers have failed to do.

Not to be outdone by the Wildrose attacks against Ms. Redford, the NDP joined the fray. On Monday morning, NDP leader Brian Mason attacked Ms. Redford for delaying the fall sitting of the legislature, which was scheduled to begin on October 25, and the appointment of Alberta Health Services chairman Ken Hughes to her transition team. While both criticisms were valid, they were never meant to be “constructive” as Mr. Mason claimed on his blog the next day.

Unlike the opposition parties, who rely heavily on the daily Question Period to get their media hits during the legislative session, I believe that it was perfectly reasonable for Ms. Redford to want more than 15 days to prepare a legitimate legislative agenda. Regardless of what I may believe, Ms. Redford took the opposition advice, and to Mr. Mason’s surprise, announced that there will be a fall sitting.

Meanwhile, Ontario conservative blogger Stephen Taylor spun the Wildrose talking points this week claiming that Ms. Redford is the product of a labour union conspiracy, because of the support she received from front-line education and health care workers during the campaign. Maybe the view from Ottawa is blurred, but Mr. Taylor’s argument is silly when you take into account that most of these front-line workers probably regularly vote for the PC Party anyway.

Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson pointed out early this week that Ms. Redford’s ‘honeymoon,’ a period that is traditionally given to new political leaders to allow them to settle into their new job, has been cut short by the opposition attacks. I predict these early aggressive tactics will only backfire on the opposition.

Every Albertan knows what is is like to start a new job and how bad it feels to get criticized before you even have a chance to started. No one likes the jerk who criticizes them before they have a chance to get familiar with the job. Hardline supporters of the opposition parties will rise to support their leaders attacks, but as the Wildrosers ads say, Albertans support integrity and democracy, but they also support fairness and don’t like jerks.

Categories
Alberta Politics

premier alison redford’s challenge to change her party and alberta’s government.

Alberta Premier-Designate Alison Redford at an all-candidates forum in Vermilon on July 21, 2011.
Alberta Premier-Designate Alison Redford at an all-candidates forum in Vermilon on July 21, 2011.

Alberta politics became a little more exciting in the early hours of Sunday, October 2, 2011 when the sharp-minded former Justice Minister and human rights lawyer Alison Redford defied critics, but not readers of this blog, by defeating front-runner Gary Mar in the PC leadership contest. Ms. Redford will become Alberta’s first woman Premier when she is sworn-in to her new office in the coming days. She also rides into victory carrying a banner that promises change to her party members and Albertans.

One of her first challenges will be to build a new provincial cabinet.

Without many endorsements from her fellow MLAs, Ms. Redford may have more freedom to pick and choose the members of the next cabinet. Her win was a strike against the PC Party establishment that lined up behind Mr. Mar, so it will not be surprising to see a significant cabinet shuffle after she officially enters her office.

It is too early to know who will be in cabinet for sure, but there are a number of political indicators that we can use to speculate. Former Deputy Premier Doug Horner, who placed third in the leadership contest and whose supporters helped push Ms. Redford over the top on the run-off vote will likely grab a key cabinet spot. Remaining in cabinet because of their political strength on the ground (as proved by the total number of memberships sold in their constituencies) should be Lac La Biche-St. Paul MLA Ray Danyluk and Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Dave Hancock.

Uncertain futures lie ahead for former Finance Minister Ted Morton and Battle River-Wainwright MLA Doug Griffiths, who both endorsed Mr. Mar after they were eliminated from the first ballot vote on September 17, 2011. It should be noted that both their campaign managers endorsed Ms. Redford, as did voters in their constituencies in the October 1, 2011 vote.

To reinforce the message of change that Ms. Redford reminded PC Party members of in her victory speech, she will need to clean out some of the dead wood in the current provincial cabinet. This will mean smaller offices and salary cuts for some cabinet ministers, including loyalists of outgoing Premier Ed Stelmach.

Also significant to watch along with a new cabinet team will be the appointment and shuffling of Deputy Ministers. These top public servants are the professionals who can spell the key to success or failure for a new cabinet minister and can also signal the direction in which a government wishes to drive an agenda.

Ms. Redford ran a policy heavy campaign, of which two of the main issues were education and health care. She announced the restoration of funding to rehire the thousand teachers who were laid off only months ago. The campaign also highlighted her support for the public health care system in order to differentiate her from front-runner Mr. Mar, who came out strongly in support of privatized healthcare earlier in the campaign. Alberta may be fertile ground for conservative political movements, but the results of the PC leadership contest reinforces the position that those same conservative party members also support a strong public health care system.

Like her opponent, Mr. Mar, she has committed to represent the Government of Alberta at congressional hearings being held in Washington D.C. about the controversial Keystone XL pipeline on October 7, 2011. Increased international attention on the oilsands and our province’s environmental record has created a new challenge that the previous government struggled to handle. It will be interesting to watch what kind of approach Ms. Redford’s government will take to defending Alberta’s record in natural resource extraction.

Ms. Redford’s selection as Premier has already made Alberta politics more exciting and unpredictable. Opposition leaders Danielle Smith, Raj Sherman, Brian Mason, and Glenn Taylor will not be given a chance to challenge Ms. Reford during a Fall session of the Assembly, which will be delayed while the new Premier legitimately prepares a Legislative agenda for 2012. They will have to take to the airwaves, newspapers, and twittersphere with their criticisms.

With a provincial general election expected next year, Ms. Redford will have less than a year to prove that she can walk the talk when it comes to changing attitudes and politics within her forty-year governing Progressive Conservative Party. It is going to be interesting to watch!

Categories
Alberta Politics

doing second-ballot math: ted morton and rick orman endorse gary mar.

Ted Morton Gary Mar Alberta Conservatives
Ted Morton has endorsed Gary Mar

Ted Morton and Rick Orman have endorsed Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership front-runner Gary Mar.

It is unclear how many of Dr. Morton’s supporters may show up to support Mr. Mar on the second-ballot vote on October 1, but it may have saved his political career, which appeared to be close to an end when the former Finance Minister placed a distant fourth with 11% of the vote on September 17.

Mr. Orman placed fifth with 10% of the vote. One Tory insider emailed me this morning suggesting that Mr. Orman’s endorsement could lead to his appointment as Alberta’s envoy in Washington D.C., a job Mr. Mar held until earlier this year.

Two days ago it was difficult to see anyone defeating Mr. Mar on the second ballot. It feels even less likely now.

Conservative versus Progressive?

Since the first-ballot vote eliminated Dr. Morton and Mr. Orman, the hard-edged conservatives of the group, the Wildrose and their friends at the Toronto National Post have been spinning the narrative that the progressives (or “soft-centrists”) have defeated the conservatives in this contest. While the endorsement of the two more “conservative” candidates will aid Mr. Mar in dispelling this attack, I am not sure that I would put a “progressive” label or Mr. Mar, or either of the other two remaining candidates.

Like Dr. Morton, front-runner Mr. Mar has expressed solid support for privatized health care. Mr. Mar’s comments put him in the unfortunate position of appearing more supportive of the Americanization than even Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, who supports the introduction of private facilities, but sticks to finely-tuned talking points when talking about full-privatization. Of course, spin alley is in a near traffic jam trying to explain away Mr. Mar’s feelings towards having Albertans pay out of pocket for health care.

While the remaining three candidates may not espouse hard edged conservatism like Dr. Morton or Mr. Orman, the three candidates have received financial support from not-so-progressive groups, like the Merit Contractors Association, which is an anti-union lobby group in the construction industry.

All three candidates have received support from across the center and right of the political spectrum. Like Mr. Mar, Ms. Redford has received the support of Liberals and Red Tories alike, including former federal candidate Kevin Taron, former provincial candidate Beth Gignac, and former Prime Minister Joe Clark. Mr. Horner is certainly a moderate conservative and has received the support of longtime MLA and Assembly Speaker Ken Kowalski, who’s campaign once published an election ad stating that “While human beings can create laws, the laws of God must take precedence.”

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Alberta Politics

what’s next for raj sherman and the alberta liberals?

MLA Raj Sherman's victory speech at Alberta Liberal leadership event September 10, 2011.
Newly elected Alberta Liberal leader Raj Sherman gives his victory speech with his wife Sharon standing to the right. Leadership co-chair Josipa Petrunic and candidates Laurie Blakeman, Hugh MacDonald, and Bruce Payne stand to the left (Bill Harvey did not join the other candidates on stage).

What kind of leader will Raj Sherman be?
This is a tough question to answer. As Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson somewhat dramatically described yesterday:

Sherman – energetic, intelligent, charismatic – could prove to be a political white knight riding to the Liberals’ rescue. Or Sherman – inexperienced, mercurial, impetuous – could yet prove to be one of the horsemen of the apocalypse.

Simply put, Dr. Sherman is a mixed-bag. (Don Braid, David Climenhaga, and Maurice Tougas have all penned opinions on what Dr. Sherman’s acendency to the leadership might mean for Alberta’s Official Opposition party).

The Caucus
Former Tory MLA Dr. Sherman will walk into his new office as the Leader of the Official Opposition this week surrounded by an eight MLA Liberal caucus, which has had a tense relationship with its leaders since the 2008 general election. The caucus includes two of his leadership competitors (Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman and Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald) and two of the party’s former leaders (Calgary-Mountain View MLA David Swann and Edmonton-Riverview MLA Kevin Taft). Of the group of eight, two (Dr. Taft and Calgary-Varsity MLA Harry Chase) are planning to retire at the next election.

The Big Four
It is my experience that the Chief of Staff, Caucus Communications Director, Party President, and Party Executive Director are four key positions that a Liberal party leader needs support from in order to successfully command the leadership of the party. Two of these positions are about to be vacated.

As noted in a recently Globe & Mail article, Erick Ambtman has resigned as President. Corey Hogan, executive director since 2009, has announced his plans to move on to future challenges. Chief of Staff Rick Miller, a former MLA and nominated candidate in Edmonton-Rutherford, may want to focus his energies on his election campaign. In his short time in the job, Communications Director Brian Leadbetter has proven to be an effective communication manager in a position that has turned into a rotating door over the past few years.

The Liberals need a ground game
While only around a paltry 8,600 out of almost 27,000 eligible voters actually participated in the leadership vote, the party is still left with a vast list of almost 30,000 potential volunteers, sign locations, and voters to help them in the next provincial election. One of the areas that Mr. MacDonald and Mr. Payne stressed during the leadership campaign was the need for the Liberals to build their strength on the ground.

Currently, the Liberals do not have functional organizations in most constituencies across the province, including in constituencies that they held up until the 2008 election. The lack of local organization and funds will pose a challenge in finding credible candidates to run in an expected fall 2011 or spring 2012 general election.

Mending fences
A significant number of the party’s staunch loyalists supported Mr. MacDonald’s candidacy and his criticisms of the open voting leadership process. Many of these Liberals were furious at former leader Dr. Swann’s attempts to cooperate with other opposition parties in response to his party’s shrinking political fortunes. Dr. Sherman will need to mend fences with this sometimes unreasonable group of stalwarts while cementing his own activists into the party ranks.

It will also be interesting to see if right-wing leadership candidate Bill Harvey remains in the Liberal Party (it is suspected that he may join the Wildrose Party). The two-time candidate, who was supported by right-wing agitator Craig Chandler, earned 7% of the vote in this contest.

Of interesting note, party Vice-President (Policy) Debbie Cavaliere challenged Dr. Sherman for the PC nomination in 2007 and later ran as the Liberal candidate against him in the 2008 general election.

Other Parties
The Progressive Conservatives will be voting for the first ballot in their leadership contest on September 17. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, then a second ballot with the top three candidates will be held on October 1. The victor of that leadership contest will determine the tone and calendar of the next provincial election, which many political watchers are expecting to be held later this fall or early next spring.

Since 2010, the Wildrose Party led by Danielle Smith have moved into second place in the polls, with the NDP led by Brian Mason are competing with the Liberals for third place. The question is whether Dr. Sherman’s star power can write the Liberals back into the political narrative they have been largely absent from over the past two years.

There is also the question of what effect Dr. Sherman’s victory will have on the new Alberta Party, which continues to organize, but has dropped to a lower-profile since Hinton Mayor Glenn Taylor was chosen as its leader earlier this year.

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Alberta Politics

ted morton aka frederick lee and the shredder.

 Ted Morton, Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership candidate
Ted Morton aka Frederick Lee

After a week of dodging questions from intrepid CBC reporter Charles Rusnell about a covert email alias and shredded ministerial documents, former Finance Minister Ted Morton‘s campaign for Alberta’s Progressive Conservative leadership has taken its first big hit with just more than a week before the first ballot vote.

After making ‘government transparency’ a key theme of his campaign, squeaky clean conservative Dr. Morton’s commitment to the pledge is being questioned when it was revealed that he used a covert email address under his little known full first- and middle-names “Frederick Lee” to conduct government business. It is being suggested that Dr. Morton’s covert email alias could have foiled Freedom of Information requests.

CBC discovered that correspondence and documents, including those connected to the covert email alias, were shredded or destroyed when Dr. Morton left his ministry to seek the PC leadership earlier this year.

A spokesperson for Alberta’s Information and Privacy Commissioner told the media that the Office would be launching an immediate investigation into the shredding allegations.

Dr. Morton downplayed the criticisms yesterday, but that did not stop his right-wing competitors Rick Orman and Wildrose leader Danielle Smith from tackling him in the media. Ms. Smith claimed that because the documents belonged to the people of Alberta, Dr. Morton’s staff had no right to feed them to the paper shredder on a whim.

Will these revelations hurt Dr. Morton’s chances in next week’s leadership vote? It is difficult to say. Dr. Morton has run a stealth campaign during this contest, which has focused on low-profile events and selling memberships. This is very different from his run in 2006, which publicly stressed his social conservative values on issues like same-sex marriage.

Watch for the other PC candidates to train their guns on Dr. Morton’s last minute weakness in the final week.

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Alberta Politics

joe anglin speaks. wildrose candidates get creative with their biographies.

Joe Anglin Wildrose Alberta Rocky Mountain House - Sundre
Joe Anglin

As reported on this blog earlier this week, and reported by the mainstream media yesterday, Joe Anglin has been nominated as the Wildrose candidate in the newly created constituency of Rocky Mountain House-Sundre.

Mr. Anglin is a well-known landowners rights advocate and was the last leader of the now defunct Alberta Green Party, but you will not learn that from the short biography released by the Wildrose yesterday. His past party leadership position was omitted from the party’s official media release circulated yesterday.

According to Wildrose Director of Communications William McBeath, the omissions were not the party’s doing, they were Mr. Anglin’s. “Joe provided info for his bio – his wording was used,” wrote Mr. McBeath in an email.

When asked about the omission, Mr. Anglin responded that “the bio was limited to 100 words” and that the two omissions in the short-biography are well-known facts in his constituency. “I will run on my reputation as an advocate of landowner rights,” wrote Mr. Anglin in an email.

Why did Anglin join the Wildrose?

When asked about his conversion from the former Green Party to the right-wing Wildrose, Mr. Anglin told this blogger that he chose his new party because they “supported and recognized the importance of my work advocating for landowner rights, and democratic principles.”

Since becoming leader, Danielle Smith focused on landowners rights one of her party’s key issues to drive a wedge between rural landowners and the party they traditionally support, the Progressive Conservatives.

“Danielle [Smith] met with me multiple times. She listened to me and then convinced me that if I am elected, I will be able to represent the people of my constituency, as they see fit,” wrote Mr. Anglin. “This is an important principle for many voters in my constituency and it is a very sensitive issue for me. People are not asking to be heard anymore, they are demanding to be heard.”

“What is not well known is that many Green Party supporters joined the Wildrose Party before I did, for this very reason,” wrote Mr. Anglin. “In summary, it wasn’t so much the party, as it was the issues. As long as the Wildrose Party walks the talk — this riding will be a Wildrose riding.”

Wildrose candidates write selective biographies.

While Mr. Anglin’s biography may have just included some honest omissions, he is not the first Wildrose candidate to leave certain biographical information off the official record. As pointed out on the talented David Climenhaga‘s blogBarrhead-Morinville-Westlock candidate Link Byfield‘s online biographies appear to have been scrapped of the fact that he was once the president of the bizarre sounding Society to Explore and Record Christian History.

Seeking the Wildrose nomination in Calgary-North West is candidate Russell Hillier, a founding member of the Canadian Culture and Integration Society, which is dedicated to reducing mass-immigration and eliminating official multiculturalism in Canada. Mr. Hillier’s involvement in this anti-immigration group is omitted from his campaign website biography and the organization’s website has mysteriously disappeared since I first wrote about his connections to the group in July 2011.

Even the recently nominated Wildrose candidate in St. Albert, former Alderman James Burrows, pumped up his biography, claiming to be a “Corporate Sales Specialist” (a more vague job title could not be found). I am told that he actually works for Lowe’s Canada in South Edmonton Common and runs his own television installation company, two respectable occupations that do not need to be omitted or hidden behind a vague job title. Yet they are.

Perhaps a creative editing course is a requirement for Wildrose candidates?

Categories
Alberta Politics

what to make of the wildrose drop, the ndp growth, and the tory restoration?

I am not the first political watcher to weigh in with my views on the Calgary HeraldEdmonton Journal poll conducted by Environics that I mentioned on my blog yesterday morning, but I am going to offer my thoughts nonetheless.

The poll of 900 Albertans showed that the Progressive Conservatives have once again risen to a dominant position over the opposition parties, including the ambitious Wildrose Party. This is just one poll, and as we learned from the May 2011 Federal Election, campaigns do matter. Keeping this in mind, here are my interpretations of what the poll could mean for Alberta’s political parties:

Alberta Provincial Party Voting Intentions July 2011 Edmonton Journal-Calgary Herald Environics Poll
The results of a recent Calgary Herald-Edmonton Journal poll conducted by Environics.

Progressive Conservatives: The death of the near-forty-year governing PC Party has been greatly exaggerated. The poll shows PC support is above 50% across the province and above 60% with voters over the age of 65 (who show up to vote).

It is difficult to say if support for the Tories will change when they choose their new leader in September or October, but it is clear that the departure of Premier Ed Stelmach is boosting their electoral fortunes. Unless the next PC Party leader (and Premier-Designate) manages to become more unpopular than Premier Stelmach in the next year, it would be easy to see this party return to its dominant status.

Alberta Liberal leadership candidates July 2011
Liberal leadership candidates Bill Harvey, Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald

Liberals: These numbers should be very concerning for the Liberal Party, which could possibly be polling at its lowest level of support since before the party returned to the Assembly in the 1986 election. The party is in the midst of a leadership contest and despite opening voting to non-members, it has struggled to get media attention.

The one morsel of comfort that the Liberals can take from this poll is that none of the other opposition parties have been able to capture the imagination of Albertans. If they choose the right leader in their September 10 vote, they may be able to survive the coming electoral storm.

Alberta NDP leader and MLA Brian Mason
NDP leader Brian Mason

New Democrats: With help from the bolstered ranks of their brothers and sisters in Ottawa, Alberta’s NDP are showing signs of growth.

The poll shows the NDP are the second choice among voters between the ages of 18 and 24 (30.9%), and of voters outside of Calgary and Edmonton. In Edmonton, the NDP’s traditional seat of strength in Alberta, the party is polling near the same level of support it received in the last provincial election. The question is whether current NDP leader Brian Mason is the right person to capitalize on this bump.

Alberta Wildrose leader Danielle Smith
Wildrose leader Danielle Smith

Wildrose: This poll will put a sour face on the most strident Wildrose supporter. I speculated earlier this month that the Wildrose may have reached the peak of their support in 2010 and this poll certainly suggests that this may be the case.

The departure of Premier Stelmach this fall appears to have removed the lightening rod that turned the Wildrose into a political force in 2010. Forming government looks further away now than it did a year ago, but the Wildrose is still in a better financial and organization position than the other opposition parties. They may have to get used to the sound of the words “Official Opposition Leader Danielle Smith.”

Alberta Party leader Glenn Taylor and MLA Dave Taylor
Alberta Party MLA Dave Taylor and leader Glenn Taylor

Alberta Party: This is poll has no good news for the Alberta Party (and almost no news at all). This poll should be a signal to this party that they should focus their electoral efforts on supporting candidates in two or three constituencies across Alberta, the most obvious being their leader Glenn Taylor in West Yellowhead, MLA Dave Taylor in Calgary-Currie, and former acting-leader Sue Huff in Edmonton-Glenora.

Categories
Alberta Politics

is rob anders only supportin’ morton? anders loyalists flocking to wildrose.

Proving again why he should never be trusted with the responsibility to stand-in for a cabinet minister at a press conference, Calgary-West Member of Parliament Rob Anders, inappropriately used his time at the podium to boast his support for Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Ted Morton.

This is hardly the first time Mr. Anders has displayed such buffoonery. Before he was an MP, he worked as a professional heckler with the Oklahoma Republicans.

The inappropriate Mr. Anders is well-known for a hardcore right-wing conservative views. Many Canadians may remember him as the only MP to vote against making Nelson Mandela an honorary citizen of Canada. He defended his actions by stating that Mr. Mandela was a communist and a terrorist and later refused to take a phone call from the former President of South Africa.

Despite his comments that his support for Dr. Morton is an effort to “avoid a civil war in the province of Alberta over the next election,” his recent public support of the Wildrose’s Danielle Smith suggests that he is simply interested in supporting conservatives that fit his ideological brand.

A significant number of Anders loyalists on Conservative Party of Canada board of directors in Calgary-West (not to be confused with the former board) are also hitching their political careers to Ms. Smith’s party.

Mr. Anders’ former Riding President Andrew Constantinidis is the nominated Wildrose candidate in the provincial constituency of Calgary-West. Mr. Anders constituency assistant Russell Hillier is seeking the Wildrose nomination in Calgary-North West (As noted in my previous post, Mr. Hillier is also a founder of the anti-immigration and anti-multicultualism group Canadian Culture and Integration Society). Another member of Mr. Anders’ board of directors, Tim Dyck, is seeking the Wildrose nomination in Calgary-Bow. The three Wildrose candidates were given a platform to speak at Mr. Anders’ recent Calgary Stampede BBQ.

Other members of Mr. Anders’ constituency organization are also prominent members of the Wildrose. Peter Csillag is a Vice-President of the Wildrose Campus Club at the University of Calgary. John DeRinzy is the President Wildrose association in Calgary-Bow. Hermina Dykxhoorn is the Vice-President Policy for the Wildrose association in Calgary-West. Paul Hamnett is the Vice-President Communications of the Wildrose association in Calgary-West. Until recently, Candice Malcolm was the Executive Assistant to Ms. Smith. Joseph Zamuda is the Treasurer of the Wildrose association Calgary-West.

After almost forty-years of PC governments, Albertans are in the mood for political change. I have a hard time believing that most Albertans have the appetite for the type of change that Rob Anders and his loyalists have in mind.

Categories
Alberta Politics

alberta ndp and wildrose preparing for next provincial election.

Hoping to capitalize on the recent gains made by their federal counterparts in the May 2011 election, word on the street is that the Alberta New Democrats have brought in a seasoned election organizer to be the key architect of their next provincial election campaign.

Jo-Anne McNevin is a a seasoned NDP organizer who has managed campaigns in British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario. She was the director of organization for the federal NDP in the late 1980s and she organized campaigns for Ed Broadbent, Bob Rae, and Frances Lankin.

Globe & Mail columnist Jeffrey Simpson wrote of Ms. McNevin on February 11, 1997:

“When the NDP wants a federal or provincial seat badly enough, it sends in Jo-Anne McNevin to organize the campaign. Ms. McNevin — tough, smart and seasoned — ran campaigns for such NDP luminaries as Ed Broadbent and Bob Rae, and she’ll upstake from her British Columbia home to organize Ms. [Alexa] McDonough’s effort in Halifax”

The NDP is expected to focus their resources on five constituencies, including the two already held by Edmonton-Strathcona MLA Rachel Notley and Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood MLA Brian Mason, as well as Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview, Edmonton-Calder, and Edmonton-Manning.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the political spectrum, the Wildrose have hired University of Alberta Law student Steven Dollansky as the new Special Assistant to leader Danielle Smith responsible for election readiness. Mr. Dollansky is the President of the Edmonton-Centre Conservative Association and was my successor as Vice-President External of the U of A Students’ Union years ago. Also of interest, Lac La Biche-St. Paul Wildrose candidate Shayne Saskiw recently replaced long-time Conservative organizer Vitor Marciano as that party’s executive director.