Tag Archives: Bud Olson

Is the sky blue? A Conservative win in Southern Alberta by-election a certainty

Following the death of Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer on March 23, 2016, Elections Canada has announced that a by-election must be called in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner electoral district before September 26, 2016. The earliest a by-election could be held is May 16, 2016.

A map of the electoral district.

A map of the electoral district.

By-elections can produce unexpected results, as we have seen recently in Alberta, but as one of the strongest Conservative voting areas of the country, it is very likely the next MP for this area will be a Conservative. Mr. Hillyer was elected in October 2015 with 68 percent of the vote, ahead of Liberal Glen Allan with 17 percent and New Democrat Erin Weir with 9 percent (not that Erin Weir).

Conservatives partisans in this region of Alberta tend to occupy the social conservative side of that party’s coalition. But that does not necessarily mean they are united.

The author of this blog outside the Creation Science Museum in Bow Island, Alberta.

The author of this blog outside the Creation Science Museum in Bow Island, Alberta.

This electoral district spans the beautiful stretch along Alberta’s southeast boundaries with Saskatchewan and Montana. The large rural district includes the City of Medicine Hat (a city of 63,000 residents), Canadian Forces Base Suffield, the Blood Indian Reserve (the largest and second most populated reserve in Canada), a large community of followers of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and the Bow Island Creation Discovery Centre.

The area was represented by Conservative MP LaVar Payne from 2008 to 2015. Former cabinet minister Monte Solberg represented the area as a Reform Party, Canadian Alliance, Democratic Representative Caucus and Conservative MP from 1993 until 2008.

Former Social Credit MP Bud Olson was re-elected as a Liberal MP in 1968 and served as Minister of Agriculture in Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s cabinet until his electoral defeat in 1972. The riding became a Progressive Conservative stronghold from 1972 to 1993.

Provincially, the area is currently represented by Cypress-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Grant Hunter of the Wildrose Party and Medicine Hat MLA Bob Wanner of the New Democratic Party.

It was June 1968. The original Trudeaumania was in full swing and Calgary geologist and businessman Nick Taylor (pictured in the photo above with his supporters) made his first expedition into federal politics as the Liberal candidate in the Calgary-Centre riding. The well-known oilman would come close to winning the riding in an election where the Liberals would earn 35.7% of the vote in Alberta.

When the ballots were counted in Calgary-Centre, Mr. Taylor placed only 301 votes behind Progressive Conservative Member of Parliament Douglas Harkness.

The Liberals succeeded in electing four MPs in Alberta in 1968, the last Liberal MPs elected in Alberta until the 1993 electionPatrick Mahoney in Calgary-SouthHu Harries in Edmonton-StrathconaBud Olson in Medicine Hat, and Allen Sulatycky in Rocky Mountain. All four MPs were defeated in the 1972 election.

In 2011, Mr. Mahoney joked that the Liberal Party “will elect an MP in Calgary again before the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup.” Neither of these things have yet to happen as of August 2015.

Despite his loss in 1968, Mr. Taylor would later become leader of the Alberta Liberal Party and, after a few years in the political wilderness, was elected as MLA for the Westlock-Sturgeon and Redwater from 1986 until he was appointed to the Canadian Senate in 1996.