Tag Archives: Alberta Election 2019

CBC National News Anchor Peter Mansbridge reacts to the results of Alberta's 2015 provincial election.

Two years later – Notley’s NDP victory and a reminder why Elections matter

Two years ago today Albertans voted to sweep out the old Progressive Conservative government by electing Rachel Notley’s New Democratic Party into government.

Rachel Notley Alberta NDP leader

Rachel Notley

It was a surreal election that topped off a tumultuous decade in Alberta politics. It used to be said that politics in our province was boring, and that may have been true at one point. But when PC Party members delivered a stunning blow to Ralph Klein in a March 2006 leadership review, politics never seemed to get dull again in Alberta. And while no one in 2006 could, or would, have predicted an NDP win in 2015, the years of PC Party infighting and corruption marked the steep decline of a once proud PC Party establishment.

The 2015 election shows more than anything else how much campaigns matter. Even though Albertans were visibly growing tired of the old establishment conservatives, the PCs were widely expected to win a 13th re-election victory. It was almost hard to imagine any other outcome.

The Wildrose Party, which was a grasp away from forming government in 2012, was decimated by floor crossings in 2014.

On May 5, 2015, the NDP did what only one week early felt unimaginable – they formed a majority government in Alberta. It was a strange and wild election campaign.

Sarah Hoffman NDP MLA Edmonton-Glenora

Sarah Hoffman

While it looked as if the NDP might form the official opposition in that election, over the course of the election Notley chipped away at Jim Prentice’s campaign, gaining momentum through a positive and hopeful campaign that contrasted to the uninspiring institutional campaign presented by the PCs.

From Notley’s masterful performance in the televised leader’s debate to a train-wreck press conference held by four prominent CEOs, there were many key moments and events that provided a clear indication that the campaign was going well for the NDP and very, very poorly for the PCs.

I had never voted for the NDP in a provincial election until 2015. I had been a supporter of the Liberal Party led by Kevin Taft in the 2000s and was part of the group that tried to build the Alberta Party before the 2012 election. During that time, I frequently scoffed at the NDP as being merely an Edmonton-based vote-splitter and an annoying minor competitor (albeit an incredibly effective annoying competitor).

But in Notley I saw a political leader who had sparked momentum and energy in Albertans. She was progressive, urban, smart and tough – a natural replacement for a tired conservative government that had spent decades squandering and mismanaging Alberta’s energy wealth.

Shannon Phillips

Shannon Phillips

As a government, the NDP faced a steep learning curve and have had their highs and lows.

Notley started off with an inexperienced small circle of cabinet minsters. She slowly expanded the cabinet with talent identified from the MLA backbenches of the new government caucus and since then many cabinet ministers have grown into their roles quite comfortably. Health Minister Sarah Hoffman, Environment and Parks Minister Shannon Phillips, Children’s Services Minister Danielle Larivee, Energy Minister Marg McCuaig Boyd, Service Alberta Minister Stephanie McLean, Economic Development and Trade Minister Deron Bilous, and Education Minister David Eggen, to name a few, have become some of the strongest and most passionate progressive voices of Alberta’s government.

But most of all, Notley has grown into her role as Premier. She was then during the election campaign and remains now the NDP’s strongest asset in Alberta.

While they have made some embarrassing political mistakes, enflaming conservative critics along the way (while also inheriting some of the old PC government’s bad habits), Notley’s NDP government has started to catch its stride.

Danielle Larivee

Danielle Larivee

As I wrote earlier this month, the NDP subtly shifted their messaging over the past few months, focusing on launching new programs and projects that they argue will “make lives better for Albertans,” rather than trying to out-flank the conservatives on economic issues. And it is working well for the NDP.

Notley’s NDP have reshaped Alberta’s political landscape and provided a much needed breath of fresh air into the once stale conservative halls of government. While I would not place a bet on the outcome of the next election, Conservative politicians who brag about dancing a cakewalk back into government in 2019 should be reminded that it might not be that easy.

The mould was broken in the 2015 election. No party should take the votes of Albertans for granted again.

Candidate nominations begin for Alberta’s next election but the rules have changed

The next election may be more than two years away but that is not stopping eager potential candidates from wanting a head start on the hustings. Both the Alberta Party and Wildrose Party now beginning the process of nominating candidates for the next election.

It may feel like it is too early to start nominating candidates because Albertans are now two years, one month away from when the next provincial election is expected to be called, but we are not far away from the same time parties began nominating candidates before the last election.

Leela Aheer Wildrose MLA Chestermere Rockyview

Leela Aheer

The next election is expected to be called between March 1, 2019 and May 31, 2019, as Alberta’s fixed election legislation suggests.

The Wildrose Party will be holding its first nomination meeting on Feb. 25, 2017 in the Chestermere-Rocky View constituency. It is expected that incumbent MLA Leela Aheer will be nominated but I have heard rumours that she could face a challenge from a former municipal politician. The Alberta Party was the first to nominate a candidate for the next election when Omar Masood was chosen to represent the party in Calgary-Buffalo at a Nov. 2016 meeting.

As I have done in previous elections, I will do my best to keep track of nomination contests as they heat up.

Omar Masood ALberta Party Calgary Buffalo

Omar Masood

Expected changes to the electoral boundaries for the next election could force the parties to hold new nomination meetings, but there is a real advantage in having a candidate campaigning, fundraising and organizing early.

Amendments to the Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act passed in the fall 2016 sitting of the Alberta Legislative Assembly introduced rules around the business of nominating candidates, something that did not previously exist in our province. Here are a few of the new rules:

  • Candidates running for party nominations must register with Elections Alberta. Within 10 days of the conclusion of a nomination contest, the party or constituency association is required to submit to the Chief Electoral Officer a statement including the full names of the nomination contestants.
  • Section 17(1) of the Act states that a maximum annual donation to a nomination candidate is $4,000.
  • Section 9.3 (1) states that the chief financial officer of the party or constituency association must file a statement informing Elections Alberta of the date of the official call of the nomination contest, the date of the nomination meeting, and any fee or deposit required to be paid by a person as a condition of entering the nomination contest, and the estimated cost for holding the nomination contest.
  • Section 32 (4.2) (a) states that all donors who have contributed more than $250 to a nomination campaign will have their names made public, similar to regular donations to candidates and political parties.
  • Section 41.4(1) states that nomination campaign expenses are limited to 20 percent of a registered candidate’s spending limit for an election in that constituency.
  • Section 43.01 (1) states that within 4 months after the conclusion of a nomination contest, the chief financial officer of a nomination contestant is required to file financial return with Elections Alberta.

 

Justice Myra Bielby is chairing Alberta's Electoral Boundaries Commission.

Alberta’s electoral map is being redrawn, here’s how to participate.

The process of redrawing the electoral map for Alberta’s next provincial election will begin in a few weeks. The Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission will propose a new map of provincial constituency boundaries to reflect changes in population since the last time the map was drawn in 2009/2010. (Here is a link to the current maps)

The Commission has launched their website and released the dates of the first public hearings to collect feedback from Albertans about how their provincial constituencies should be shaped.

The Commission has announced eleven locations where public hearings will be held. Public hearings in Calgary have not yet been announced but I expect they will be soon.

  • January 16 and 17 in Edmonton
  • January 18 in Fort McMurray
  • January 19 in Peace River and Grande Prairie
  • January 20 in Red Deer
  • January 23 in Wainwright and St. Paul
  • January 24 in Drumheller
  • January 25 in Lethbridge and Olds
  • January 26 in Medicine Hat

The Commission is also accepting written submissions until February 8, 2017.

An interim report will be available by May 31, 2017 and the final report by October 31, 2017.

The Commission’s membership is made up of a neutral chairperson, Justice Myra Bielby​, two government appointees, Bruce McLeod of Acme and Jean Munn of Calgary, and two official opposition appointees, Laurie Livingstone of Calgary and Gwen Day of Carstairs.

I have more thoughts about how Alberta’s electoral boundaries are drawn that I will share in the coming weeks, but in the meantime, I encourage all Albertans to participate and provide their feedback into this important process.

Neighbourhood population change in Edmonton from 2014 to 2016 (image from blog.mastermaq.ca)

Municipal Census a snapshot of how Edmonton’s Electoral Boundaries will be redrawn

The City of Edmonton municipal census released yesterday could give some indication into how provincial electoral boundaries in the city will be redrawn for the next election.

Current electoral boundaries in Edmonton, drawn in 2010, with the results of the 2015 election.

Current electoral boundaries in Edmonton, drawn in 2010, with the results of the 2015 election.

An Electoral Boundaries Commission will be appointed by October 31, 2016 and will propose changes to Alberta’s provincial constituency boundaries to reflect population changes and shifts since the last time the boundaries were redrawn in 2010.

Bill 7: Electoral Boundaries Commission Amendment Act, introduced by Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley in April 2016 adjusted the timelines for the commission and clarified the commissioners authority to consider municipal population information, such as a municipal census.

Overall, Edmonton’s population has increased by 117,008 since the 2009 Census and Alberta’s population has grown by more than 500,000 since our provincial electoral boundaries were last redrawn in 2010.

With the municipal census showing Edmonton is becoming more suburban, we should expect the boundary commission will redraw the city’s provincial electoral districts to reflect this growth in suburban neighbourhoods.

Oil Pipeline still King in Notley’s Interprovincial Agenda

Three years ago this week, Conservative Premier Alison Redford took to the airwaves to warn Albertans about the ominous “bitumen bubble.” Ms. Redford warned that a pipeline bottleneck and a dramatic drop in the price of oil would rob the provincial government of up to $6 billion in natural resource revenue.

Rachel Notley Alberta NDP leader

Rachel Notley

Ms. Redford spent much of her two and a half years in office focusing on pipelines, as did her successor Jim Prentice during his short eight months in the Premier’s Office.

One of the jobs Mr. Prentice left when he decided to run for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative party in 2014 was as liaison between the (now moribundEnbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline and First Nations in northern British Columbia. Despite this experience, there was little evidence of pipeline advancement during his brief time as premier before the PCs were defeated in the May 2015 election.

Kathleen Wynne

The politics of pipelines continue to dominate Alberta’s interprovincial agenda under Premier Rachel Notley’s New Democratic Party government. Riding the success of the National Energy Strategy accepted at the Premier’s Meeting in St. John’s, Newfoundland last summer, Ms. Notley secured the tentative approval from Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne for the TransCanada Corporation’s Energy East Pipeline.

As AlbertaPolitics.ca publisher David Climenhaga noted last week, “Premier Rachel Notley, after less than nine months in office, secured the tentative approval of the premier of Ontario and the enthusiastic endorsement of the prime minister of Canada, both members of a different political party than hers, for a pipeline to carry diluted bitumen from Alberta to New Brunswick for refining.”

Alison Redford Alberta Election 2012 Conservative leader

Alison Redford

What we are witnessing is unfamiliar: an NDP Premier advocating for this approval of a privately-owned, privately-operated pipeline that would ship oil from Alberta’s oil sands to a privately-owned and privately-operated refinery in New Brunswick. This is hardly characteristic of the radical marxist socialist extremist that Ms. Notley’s more fanatical critics claim she is.

This pipeline will not save the Alberta government from the revenue shortfall caused by the drop in the international price of oil, which is intensified due as a result of poor long-term planning during the previous 44 years of conservative governments. But it could narrow the price gap between West Texas Intermediate and Western Canadian Select and provide a new point of export for Canadian oil while also keeping refinery jobs in Canada rather than exporting jobs to refineries overseas.

Denis Coderre

Denis Coderre

The decision to approve this pipeline will be up to the federal Liberal government, which includes strong representation from Alberta Members of Parliament.

Edmonton-Centre Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault reiterated his support for TransCanada’s Energy East pipeline last week. “Our government is committed to ensuring our natural resources have access to market.  This process will include a credible environmental assessment process based on science, facts and evidence,” Mr. Boissonneault said in a statement.

Randy-Boissonnault Edmonton Centre Liberals

Randy Boissonnault

Building a national consensus around climate change and the transportation and export of Canada’s oil will be helpful for future projects. It also gives Ms. Notley an opportunity to highlight her government’s climate change plan, which includes the phasing out of dirty coal fired power plants by 2030, a move that could significantly reduce Alberta’s carbon emissions.

While Wildrose opposition leader Brian Jean squabbles with Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre over the municipal politician’s opposition to the pipeline, it would appear that Ms. Notley’s quiet diplomacy might be showing results. These type of public spats distract from the reality that Mr. Jean supports TransCanada’s Energy East pipeline but would cheer if Ms. Notley’s bid fails.

If TransCanada’s Energy East pipeline is approved before the 2019 Alberta election, Ms. Notley will be able to make the claim that an NDP Premier was able to accomplish something her conservative predecessors could not: get a new pipeline built from the oil sands to an ocean port.

Albertans are more progressive than you might think. I’m not surprised.

A new report, “The Quiet Majority“, released by a new group called Progress Alberta shows that we Albertans may be more progressive than we believe we are.

Progress Alberta Edmonton Hunger Ukrainian Strike

A infographic released by Progress Alberta.

According to a survey conducted by Abacus Data, when Albertans were asked whether they consider themselves to be progressive, 59 percent answered yes. It appears that although we identify our province as being conservative, a significantly larger group of Albertans identify as being moderate or progressive.

“Urbanization, in-migration, and generational change are all shifting the province’s political attitudes and behavior,” Abacus Data’s David Coletto said in a press release today.

The survey also shows strong support for same-sex marriage and the decriminalization of marijuana, and support for raising personal income taxes on high income earners and the introduction of a carbon tax.

This survey also reinforces the arguments made by political watchers like Corey Hogan, that shifting demographics and massive population growth have created a new political environment in Alberta which made an electoral win by the New Democratic Party possible in 2015.

As shown in the graphs below, where Albertans place themselves and where they believe most of the population sits on the ideological spectrum is quiet different.

AB_Ideological_Self-Placement-1

Where Albertans place themselves on the ideological spectrum.

AB_in_General_Ideological_Placement

Where Albertans believe most of the population sits on the ideological spectrum.

The results of the survey are not surprising to anyone who has been paying close attention to Alberta politics, as I have over the past ten years. While there are a large number of self-identified conservatives in our province, Alberta’s electorate has always been more populist than conservative.

Peter Lougheed Alberta Conservative Premier

A infographic released by Progress Alberta.

The great success of the old Progressive Conservative government, starting under the leadership of Peter Lougheed in 1971, was forged with the creation of a broad political coalition that appealed to conservative, moderate and progressive voters in Alberta. And at the height of the Ralph Klein-era in Alberta politics, the Liberals and NDP were still able to garner between 30 and 40 percent of the province-wide vote.

This is why I am hesitant to predict the death of the PC Party in Alberta, even in its current weakened state.

The right-wing Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean continues to mount a campaign to take over the PC Party. At meetings across the province, Wildrose Party members are being encouraged to purchase PC Party memberships in order to push the merger agenda at constituency associations and other internal party levels.

Proponents of the take over characterize it as a merger but it is likely that the Wildrose needs the PCs more than the PCs need the Wildrose and the limited appeal of the ideological social conservatism that much of its membership base represents. The PCs won 12 elections from 1971 to 2012 by raising a big tent centrist party, not by just uniting conservatives under one conservative party banner, as Mr. Jean and MLAs like Derek Fildebrandt appear to be proposing.

A infographic released by Progress Alberta.

A infographic released by Progress Alberta.

Many members of the PC Party, including Calgary-North West MLA Sandra Jansen remain opposed to merging with the Wildrose, which could drag the PCs further to the political right and away from where most Albertans stand, near the moderate centre. With the right leader, the PCs may be able to regain the trust of voters lost in 2015.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Wildrose Party’s strategy is to eliminate the PC Party as an alternative while continuing to brand the NDP government as “risky”, “extreme” and “ideological,” despite no real evidence supporting those claims.

The success of Rachel Notley‘s NDP in 2015 was based on her appeal to moderate and progressive voters. It is not surprising that during last year’s election campaign Ms. Notley frequently invoked the memory of Mr. Lougheed, who was seen by many Albertans as the embodiment of a progressive and forward-looking leader.

The success of the NDP in the 2019 election could be based on their ability to remain appealing to that coalition of moderate and progressive voters. This will require Ms. Notley to keep the balance and moderation that was promised in her party’s election platform and not veer too far left to appease her party’s fringe.

This is only one poll and is not an indicator of how Albertans will vote in future elections but it does provide some valuable information about the values held by many voters in our province. It is encouraging that groups like Progress Alberta are being formed to ensure that issues important to progressive Albertans are publicly discussed in a province dominated by conservative commentators and pundits.

Publisher’s Note

I am pleased to be contributing to Progress Alberta as a member of their advisory board. See the full list of advisory board members here.

Information about the survey

The survey informing this study was conducted online with 1,000 Albertans aged 18 and older from December 2 to 7, 2015. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Albertans recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading providers of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.