After three years of slagging him in the media, Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith met Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel for the first time yesterday (The image is a dramatization of actual events).

Three years after becoming leader of her party, Official Opposition Wildrose Party leader and southern Alberta MLA Danielle Smith met with Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel for the first time yesterday.

It is bizarre that Ms. Smith, who believed she was on the verge of becoming Premier of Alberta before April 23, had not met the Mayor of Alberta’s capital city until today. Knowing how many events Mayor Mandel attends on a weekly basis it is surprising to me that the two  have not coincidentally (or even purposely) bumped into each other at a reception or fundraiser. Perhaps this suggests where Edmonton fit in the Wildrose Party’s grand strategy to form government on April 23, 2012.

Stephen Mandel

In the three years since she was selected as leader of the Wildrose Alliance, Ms. Smith has attempted, very publicly, to turn decisions made by Edmonton City Council into wedge issues in northern Alberta.

The most notable attempt was in 2010, when the Wildrose Party leader denounced the decision by City Councillors to implement a phased closure of the City Centre Airport, and used the conclusion of the long-standing and painful civic to wedge away traditional Tory support in northern communities concerned about what effects the closure could have on medivac and charter flight services.

While campaigning for the cancelation of the phased closure plans, Ms. Smith and her party started what became a personal battle against Mayor Mandel, who supported the phased closure. Despite the Wildrose Party’s incursion into municipal affairs, Mayor Mandel was re-elected with 55% of the vote.

Over the course of the next two years, and the 2012 election campaign, Ms. Smith’s party made issue of the provincial funding for a new Royal Alberta Museum and the renovation of the too-long abandoned Federal Building in Edmonton’s downtown.

These wedge issue did not translate into seats in northern Alberta on election day. The party’s candidates were competitive in many constituencies north of Edmonton, but only Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills candidate Shayne Saskiw was successful and the party’s only incumbent in the north, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo MLA Guy Boutilier, was defeated.

Danielle Smith

The Wildrose Party was also strongly rebuked in Edmonton, where in total votes it placed behind both the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats. Following controversial comments made on a blog by Edmonton Wildrose candidate Allan Hunsperger, Mayor Mandel cautiously waded into the election campaign. Voters in only one urban Edmonton-area constituency gave the party more than 30% support (in Sherwood Park).

Newly elected Cardston-Taber-Warner Wildrose MLA Gary Bikman believes his party’s drubbing in Edmonton was a result of rural voters “possessing more common sense” than the city dwellers, suggesting that Ms. Smith’s party may still have to undergo a significant psychological transformation before it will appeal to those nonsensical city voters.

The Edmonton’s Advantage

Simple geopolitics gives the two other opposition parties an advantage over the new Wildrose Official Opposition in the capital city. The leaders of of the two other opposition parties actually live there. The four MLA NDP caucus, led by Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood MLA Brian Mason, is entirely based in Edmonton and the former official opposition Liberal Party, led by Edmonton-Meadowlark MLA Raj Sherman, holds two seats in the capital city.

Even as a Calgary-based politician, PC Premier Alison Redford appointed some powerful Edmonton representatives at the cabinet table, including Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, Human Services Minister Dave Hancock, Health Minister Fred Horne, Culture Minister Heather Klimchuk, and PC caucus whip Steven Young. Just outside the city limits, Advanced Education Minister Stephen Khan, Education Minister Jeff Johnson, and Finance Minister Doug Horner represent constituencies in the Capital Region.

Despite Ms. Smith’s electoral posturing against the Mayor and City Council, and her party’s contingent of MLA’s hailing mostly from rural southern constituencies, Edmonton’s municipal officials will benefit from cultivating working relationships with the new Official Opposition. There will undoubtably be times over the next four years when the Mayor and City Council do not see eye to eye with the Government and that is when a healthy relationship with the bodies occupying the Official Opposition benches will be of benefit to Edmontonians.

With Ms. Smith’s party shut out of Edmonton, the city’s elected representatives do not owe anything to the Wildrose MLA’s, meaning that the Mayor and City Council can build relationships in their own time and on their own terms.

The results of the April 23 provincial general election in Alberta will cause a series of municipal by-elections as some successful candidates move from the previously held municipal roles into their new jobs as Members of the Legislative Assembly.

New Stony Plain Mayor William Choy

In the Town of Stony Plain, newly elected Stony Plain Progressive Conservative MLA Ken Lemke has been replaced as Mayor by William Choy, who was chosen in a May 1 by-election. Mr. Lemke resigned as Mayor in February 2012.

In the Town of Canmore, three candidates have declared their candidacy in the June 19 by-election to replace former Mayor and newly elected Banff-Cochrane PC MLA Ron Casey. In the race are former Councillor Pam Hilstad, as well as recent Councillors Ed Russell and John Borrowman, who were required to resign their council positions to seek the Mayor’s job (creating two vacancies on Town Council which will be filled in a by-election also held on June 19).

New MLA Everett McDonald

On June 25, the Municipal District of Wood Buffalo will hold a by-election to fill two vacancies created when PC candidate Don Scott was elected in Fort McMurray-Conklin and PC candidate Mike Allen was elected in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. So far, Christine Burton is the only candidatelisted in the media as have declared her intention to run.

A June 11 by-election in the County of Grande Prairie will be held to replace former District 1 Councillor and Reeve Everett McDonald, who was elected as the PC MLA for Grande Prairie-Smoky. Mr. McDonald was first elected to the County Council in 1992. Bezanson District Fire Captain Harold Bulford and realtor D.J. Golden have entered the contest.

A by-election in Strathcona County will be held on June 25 to fill the vacancy created by former Councillor Jacquie Fenske, who was elected to succeed retiring Premier Ed Stelmach as the PC MLA for Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.

New MLA Jacquie Fenske

Westlock County Reeve Charles Navratil told the Westlock News on April 23 that the County will likely hold a by-election to replace newly elected Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock PC MLA Maureen Kubinec.

By-elections are also expected to be held in the Town of Rimbey to replace newly elected Sundre-Rocky Mountain House-Rimbey Wildrose MLA Joe Anglin and in Vulcan County to replace Little Bow Wildrose MLA Ian Donovan.

Other municipal politicians making the jump to provincial politics after April 23 are Village of Beiseker Mayor Bruce Rowe, who was elected as Wildrose MLA for Olds-Disbury-Three Hills, and Village of Stirling Deputy Mayor Gary Bikman, who was elected as the Wildrose MLA for Cardston-Taber-Warner.

According to Section 162 of the Municipal Government Act, a council must hold a by-election to fill a vacancy on council unless (a) the vacancy occurs in the 6 months before a general election, or (b) the council consists of 6 or more councillors and the vacancy occurs (i) in the 18 months before a general election and there is only one vacancy, or (ii) in the 12 months before a general election and the number of councillors remaining is at least one more than the majority of the number of councillors compromising the council. The next municipal general election will be held in October 2013.

Premier Alison Redford's new cabinet ministers (photos from premierofalberta Flickr feed).

Premier Alison Redford appointed her post-election cabinet ministers today after forgoing an initial press release and announcing them on Twitter. These picks and the legislation they will bring forward over the next four years will shape the direction Premier Redford wants to take her Progressive Conservative Party into the next election.

The new cabinet will face a new Wildrose Party Official Opposition, which is dominated by rookie MLA’s from rural southern and central Alberta constituencies.

The bleeding of large portions of the PC Party’s rural social conservative wing to Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Party in the April 2011 election could be a blessing for Premier Redford and her government. Keeping the Wildrose Party electorally contained in the rural south and central regions of the province, while focusing on issues that will appeal to the rapidly growing and diverse urban populations in Grande Prairie, Lethbridge, Red Deer, Calgary, Edmonton could be a solid strategy to provide a more forward-looking government agenda and preserve the PC Party’s electoral dominance in the coming decades.

In the three years leading into this year’s election, the Wildrose proved extremely successful in using wedge issues like property rights and the construction of electrical transmission lines to drive traditional PC voters in rural southern and central Alberta constituencies into their electoral camp. If they have not already, the PC brain trust should take note of similar strategies that will keep the Wildrose Party at bay in urban centres.

If expected patterns of population growth continue, it is the urban areas which will receive additional constituencies in the Alberta Legislature when the boundaries are redistributed.

Alison Redford – Premier
Thomas Lukaszuk – Deputy Premier
Doug Horner – Minister of Finance & President of Treasury Board
Dave Hancock – Minister of Human Services
Cal Dallas – Minister of International & Intergovernmental Relations
Diana McQueen – Minister of Environment & Sustainable Resource Development
Fred Horne – Minister of Health
Ken Hughes – Minister of Energy
Jeff Johnson – Minister of Education
Verlyn Olson – Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development
Jonathan Denis – Minister of Justice & Solicitor General
Doug Griffiths – Minister of Municipal Affairs
Robin Campbell – Minister of Aboriginal Relations
Heather Klimchuk – Minister of Culture
Manmeet Bhullar – Minister of Service Alberta
Wayne Drysdale – Minister of Infrastructure
Stephen Khan – Minister of Enterprise & Advanced Education
Ric McIver – Minister of Transportation
Christine Cusanelli – Minster of Tourism, Parks, and Recreation

Thomas Mulcair

Federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair talked his way into inevitable criticism of the oil sands this past weekend. Speaking on CBC Radio’s The House, Mr. Mulcair suggested that the development of the oil sands is contributing to a strong Canadian dollar, and thus hurting the industrial manufacturing sector in other provinces (also known as “Dutch Disease“).

The comments earned harsh criticism from Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall.

Calgary economist Jack Mintz pointed out that the manufacturing industry malaise in Central Canada and the Mid-West United States has less to do with the western provinces and is almost entirely a result of an automotive industry that failed to compete with its international competitors.

The natural resource wealth in Alberta and Saskatchewan and the shift of political power westward may redefine Canadian politics in the next decade. The industrial base in the oil sands is driving the national economy and poses a great challenge to the traditional economic dominance of Ontario and Quebec, where the NDP found the majority of its political support in the May 2011 federal election.

Speaking from his experience as a provincial cabinet minister in Quebec, I must believe that Mr. Mulcair has a better grasp of economic issues than even most of our federal politicians. Realistically, it probably would not have mattered what Mr. Mulcair said about the oil sands. Had Mr. Mulcair said he liked the oil sands, his Conservative critics would have decried him for not declaring his love for the oil sands.

Not your grandfather's NDP.

Mr. Mulcair’s NDP faces a number of political challenges in preparation for the 2015 election, including expanding its support between the British Columbia and Ontario boundaries, where the party elected only three Members of Parliament in the last federal election. For the past twenty-years, the Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance, and now the Conservative Party of Canada led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper have held an electoral monopoly over the region.

The federal NDP base of support in Western Canada, which sent strong contingents of New Democrats to Ottawa in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, was weakened due to changing electoral boundaries and evaporated after finding itself on the unpopular side of wedge issues successfully leveraged by Conservative parties in rural areas. In 2011, as the Orange Wave swept Quebec and formed Official Opposition in Ottawa for the first time, the NDP placed a distant second in the West.

While his provincial counterparts in Alberta and Saskatchewan have been relegated to the political margins, the electoral success of the provincial NDP in Manitoba, which has formed moderate centrist governments since the late 1990′s could provide a template for electoral growth in the West.

Alberta's Legislative Assembly Building

With election withdrawal setting in like a bad hangover, much of the media attention this week focused on the 38 rookie MLA’s attending outgoing Speaker Ken Kowalski‘s Legislature 101 course and the resumption of inside baseball politics under the Dome.

Bridget Pastoor and Premier Alison Redford (photo from PremierofAlberta Flickr account)

Cabinet Speculation
Rumours abound about who might end up in Premier Redford’s new cabinet, which is expected to be appointed next week. While Tory stalwarts such as Dave Hancock, Doug Horner, Thomas Lukaszuk, and Doug Griffiths are almost certainly in line to keep a spot at the cabinet table, the retirement and defeat of a number of Tory MLAs and cabinet minister may have opened spots for new faces at the table.

I will be watching to see if newly elected MLA’s Donna Kennedy-Glans, Ken Hughes, Ron Casey, Don Scott, and Maureen Kubinec, and former Liberal MLA Bridget Pastoor (who crossed the floor to the Tories in 2011) are appointed to the new cabinet.

MLA Pay Recommendations
Retired Supreme Court Justice John Major released his recommendations to reform how MLA’s are paid. Regardless of which recommendations are adopted, this is the type of issue that will never really go away (someone will always be displeased with how much or how little our elected officials are paid).

We ask (nay, demand) our public office holders to do their very best 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. A $134,000 base salary does not seem unreasonable to me.

Gene Zwozdesky

Electing a new Speaker
The first order of business when the Assembly convenes this Spring will be the election of a new Speaker for the first time since 1997. Candidates in the running include Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman and Tory MLA’s Gene Zwozdesky, Wayne Cao, and Mary Anne Jablonski.

Premier’s new Chief of Staff
Premier Alison Redford appointed Calgary lawyer Farouk Adatia as her Chief of Staff. Mr. Adatia replaces Stephen Carter, who was temporarily replaced by Elan McDonald in March 2012 (Mr. Carter took a leave of absence to work on the PC Party campaign). Mr. Adatia was the unsuccessful PC candidate in Calgary-Shaw in the recent election and had previously attempted to win the PC nomination in Calgary-Hawkwood.

Wildrose Critics
The new Wildrose Official Opposition Caucus captured some earned media this week by releasing their list of critic positions. Leader Danielle Smith will take personal responsibility for “Cities” (i.e.: Calgary and Edmonton), where her party faired poorly during the recent election.

Mandel to Smith: Pick up the Phone
In the most bizarre story of the week, Ms. Smith told the media that she had asked Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi to “broker a peace summit” between herself and Mayor Stephen Mandel. Over the past three years, the Calgary-based Ms. Smith has publicly opposed some high-profile decisions made by Edmonton City Council.

Mayor Mandel quite correctly responded to Ms. Smith’s “peace summit” comment by saying if she wanted to talk with him she could pick up the phone. One can only imagine how this relationship would have started if Ms. Smith had actually been elected Premier last week.

Homeless Connect Edmonton at the Shaw Conference Centre (photo by Mack Male).

Last weekend Homeward Trust Edmonton and its community partners held their biannual Homeless Connect event at the Shaw Conference Centre. The event is a one-stop-shop of free essential services for Edmontonians experiencing homelessness and those at risk of becoming homeless. These services include everything from housing and employment information to addictions counselling and STI testing to haircuts and clean clothing. More than 1,000 Edmontonians are estimated to have attended the day long event.

Homeless Connect is organized by a committee of community organizations and is driven by hundreds of volunteers. This was my fourth time volunteering.

This morning, Mayor Stephen Mandel will be joining Homeless Commission chairperson Anne Smith to release the Year 3 Update to Edmonton’s Ten-Year Plan to End Homelessness.

Former Premier Ed Stelmach

Rather than focusing on the traditional emergency shelter model, the plan relies heavily the principles of Housing First, which focus on providing stable housing for homeless individuals. According to Homeward Trust, close to 2,000 people have found housing through the Housing First support program since 2009 and over 80% successfully remain in housing.

The plan to end homelessness in Edmonton complements a larger provincial ten-year plan, which is a lasting legacy of Premier Ed Stelmach. Both plans focus on Housing First.

As a volunteer at Homeless Connect over the past two years, I have noticed that many of the guests accessing the services at the event are not homeless, but are working and living in poverty.

According to a report released by the Edmonton Social Planning Council in late 2011, the number of children living in poverty rose dramatically from 53,000 to 73,000 from 2008 and 2009. The average number of Albertans living in poverty is estimated to be around 400,000.

Premier Alison Redford

During the recent election campaign, Premier Alison Redford announced the creation of a ten-year plan for poverty reduction, which would include a five-year plan to eliminate child poverty.

The plan would be ambitious and the lack of details are a concern, but it is not unrealistic considering the positive steps already taken by the Ten-Year Plan to End Homelessness. If any jurisdiction in Canada has the resources to reduce poverty and end chronic homelessness, it is Alberta.

According to the announcement during the campaign, consultations for the poverty reduction plan will begin in May 2012.

When Alberta’s Legislative Assembly reconvenes in the next few months, for the first time since 1982 the title of Official Opposition will given to a caucus of MLA’s representing a party other than the New Democrats or the Liberals. Following the April 23 general election, seventeen Wildrose Party MLA’s were elected, creating the largest Official Opposition caucus since 1997 (when eighteen Liberal MLA’s were elected).

Wildrose MLA's Heather Forsyth, leader Danielle Smith, and Rob Anderson in January 2010.

Aside from high-profile leader Danielle Smith, who was elected in Highwood, most Albertans would probably respond with blank stares if asked to name another Wildrose MLA. Over the past week, I have read biographies and scoured the internet for information about the MLA’s who, for at least the next four years, have been tasked with the responsibility of being Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition in Alberta.

Only two of the four incumbent Wildrose Party MLA’s were re-elected last week. Paul Hinman, who was narrowly elected in a 2009 by-election was soundly defeated by PC candidate Linda Johnson in Calgary-Glenmore. In Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, four-term MLA Guy Boutilier, who crossed the floor to the Wildrose in 2010 after sitting for 12 years as a Progressive Conservative MLA, was unseated by municipal councillor Mike Allen. Both Airdrie MLA Rob Anderson and Calgary-Fish Creek MLA Heather Forsyth, who crossed the floor from the PCs to the Wildrose in January 2010, were re-elected.

The Rookies

Here is a look at the fourteen rookie MLA’s who will be joining Ms. Smith, Mr. Anderson, and Ms. Forsyth in the Wildrose Party caucus.

Wildrose MLA's Joe Anglin, Drew Barnes, and Gary Bikman.

Joe Anglin (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre)
Unseated six-term PC MLA and former cabinet minister Ty Lund. Mr. Anglin is the former leader of the Green Party of Alberta and well-known Landowners’ rights advocate. In 2007, he and the Lavesta landowners’ group were the targets of the now infamous spying scandal carried out by the now defunct Alberta Energy and Utilities Board. Most recently the President and CEO of an oil and gas trading company, Mr. Anglin is an ex-United States Marine, former New Hampshire police officer, and former member of the Canadian Coast Guard Auxiliary. He is married to Deborah Laing, a Minister at Rimbey United Church.

Drew Barnes (Cypress-Medicine Hat)
Defeated two-term PC MLA Len Mitzel. Mr. Barnes is a real estate agent and co-owner of Belcore Homes, a construction company in Medicine Hat. He is the past-campaign chair and president of the Southeastern United Way. He completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree at the University of Alberta in 1983.

Gary Bikman (Cardston-Taber-Warner)
Mr. Bikman is a business management consultant and co-founder of ChopStix International Franchising Inc, a fast food gourmet Chinese restaurant chain. He is the past-president of Speedy Heavy Hauling Ltd, an oilfield service company. Until recently he was a councillor and deputy mayor of the Village of Sterling. Mr. Bikman attended the first Reform Association of Canada (later the Reform Party of Canada) conference in Vancouver in 1987. His Facebook page lists him as having completed a Bachelor of Science degree in Psychology (1968) and Master of Business Administration (1972) at Brigham Young University.

Wildrose MLA's Ian Donovan, Rod Fox, and Jason Hale.

Ian Donovan (Little Bow)
Mr. Donovan farms near the hamlet of Mossleigh. He was elected to Vulcan County Council at the age of 19 and he has served for the past 16 years, including two years as Reeve. Perceived mishandling of the nomination process which selected him as the candidate led to the entire executive board of the Little Bow Wildrose Association to resign in January 2010.

Rod Fox (Lacombe-Ponoka)
Mr. Fox is a sales manager for an insurance company. From 2006 to 2007 he served as a director on the Lacombe Economic Development Board and ran unsuccessfully for Lacombe municipal council in 2007. He served as President of the Conservative Party of Canada Wetaskiwin Electoral District Association from 2007 to 2010 and was Communications Director for MP Blaine Calkins during the 2011 federal election.

Jason Hale (Strathmore-Brooks)
Unseated first-term PC MLA Arno Doerksen. Mr. Hale operates a cattle farm with his family. He was a Professional Bullfighter for 10 years and is a member of the a member of the Bassano Rodeo committee and a Director on the Bassano Agricultural Society. He completed a diploma in Chemical Technology at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology. He also coaches for hockey and baseball.

Wildrose MLA's Bruce McAllister, Blake Pedersen, and Bruce Rowe.

Bruce McAllister (Chestermere-Rockyview)
Defeated senior cabinet minister and former PC leadership candidate Ted Morton. Originally from New Brunswick, Mr. McAllister is well-known for his time as the host of Global Television’s morning newscast in Calgary since 2004. Before moving to Calgary, Mr. McAllister was an anchor and reporter at CH Television in Victoria, BC. He also worked as a broadcaster in Winnipeg and Halifax.

Blake Pedersen (Medicine Hat)
Mr. Pedersen has been a co-owner in an oilfield, industrial supply company since 1999.

Bruce Rowe (Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills)
An electrical contractor by trade, Mr. Rowe was first elected to Beiseker village council in 2001 and was Mayor. He served on the board of directors of the Alberta Urban Municipalities Association representing villages and summer villages. Mr. Rowe was an AUMA representative to the Safety Codes Council.

Wildorse MLA's Shayne Saskiw, Pat Steir, and Rick Strankman.

Shayne Saskiw (Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills)
Unseated three-term MLA and cabinet minister Ray Danyluk. Mr. Saskiw studied Law at the University of Alberta with MLA Rob Anderson and practiced law in Vegreville. He was named one of “The Next 10” by Alberta Venture magazine in 2010. Mr. Saskiw served as Vice-President (Policy) of the PC Party from 2008 until January 2010, when he joined the Wildrose Party. He later served as executive director of the Wildrose Party.

Pat Stier (Livingstone-Macleod)
Unseated first-term MLA and cabinet minister Evan Berger. Mr. Stier lives on his family’s ranch near DeWinton and is the President of River Canyon Enterprises Inc., which provides planning services for land use and development applications to rural land owners. He served one term on the municipal council of the M.D. of Foothills from 2004 to 2007. He was a member of the PC Party Board of Directors in Highwood from 2006 to 2009 and in 2010 became the President of the Wildrose Alliance association in that constituency. Between 1988 and 1999 he served as President of the Dunbow Road Area Residents Association.

Rick Strankman (Drumheller-Stettler)
Unseated cabinet minister Jack Hayden. Mr. Strankman owns a cattle ranch and grain farm near Altario. He is the past Treasurer of the Western Barley Growers Association and is an anti-Canadian Wheat Board activist. In 1996, he was fined $1000 for taking his own wheat in his grain truck and driving it across the Canadian border into the United States. In 2000, Mr. Strankman was an unsuccessful candidate in the Canadian Wheat Board elections and in 2002 he was fined $7,500 and faced 180 days in jail after taking 756 bushels of wheat across the American border and sold it (he only served a week in jail with four other rebel farmers).

Wildrose MLA's Kerry Towle and Jeff Wilson.

Kerry Towle (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)
Defeated three-term PC MLA and former cabinet minister Luke Ouellette. Ms. Towle is a real estate broker and was executive assistant with the now-dissolved David Thompson Health Region. She ran a turkey farming operation with her husband for five years. She attended Reeves Business College in 1992 and 1993.

Jeff Wilson (Calgary-Shaw)
Defeated appointed PC candidate Farouk Adatia. Mr. Wilson is an account executive at the audio-visual equipment company AVW-Telas. He studied business and broadcasting at Mount Royal College (now Mount Royal University).

I have spent some time over the past week looking at the voting numbers from Monday’s general election and have created these maps showing the percentage of vote earned by each party. The most stunning change from previous election is the significant drop in support for Alison Redford‘s Progressive Conservatives in rural central and southern Alberta rural constituencies, which have given the PCs large majority votes in most elections over the past 40 years.

The strength of Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party was largely concentrated in rural central and southern constituencies, a few rural northern Alberta constituencies, and in south Calgary. Only one Wildrose candidate in an urban Edmonton-area constituency earned more than 30% of the vote (Garnett Genuis in Sherwood Park).

Rural Alberta was a vast wasteland for the Liberal Party and NDP in the 2012 election. Only in three rural constituencies did these two parties earn at least 11% of the vote (New Democrats Mandy Melnyk in Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater and Bruce Hinkley in Wetaskiwin-Camrose and Liberal Pete Helfrich in Banff-Cochrane.

Dr. Raj Sherman‘s Liberal Party found its only significant support concentrated in less than a dozen constituencies in central and west Edmonton and central and northeast Calgary. Support for Brian Mason‘s NDP was concentrated in central and north Edmonton constituencies and Lethbridge-West.

Progressive Conservative percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election

Wildrose Party percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election

Liberal Party percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election

NDP percentage of votes by constituency in Alberta's 2012 General Election

The Party leaders.

On Monday, Albertans went to the polls in what was expected to be a historic turning point in our province’s electoral history. It turns out that history likely only remember this election as one that extended the Progressive Conservatives 41-year old reign.

More than 190 people entered the joint daveberta.ca and CalgaryGrit Great Alberta Election Prediction Pool, but like nearly all the pollsters and pundits, most entries were far away from the actual results on election night (I placed 177th and Dan Arnold placed 114th in the pool).

Each prediction received 87 points minus one point for each seat you are off per party, plus two points per correct bonus question (see the questions here).

The two overall winners Marie and Tom, who left comments on this blog, earned 87 points each and will be contacted via email (if I am unable to contact them, the next placing entrant will be contacted and offered the prize). Prussian Prince, who answered 9 of the 10 bonus questions correct, will also receive one of the prize packs generously donated by Robert Vollman. Looking at overall points earned, the top ten contestants in the pool are:

Marie (87 points)
Tom (87 points)
Alexis MacMillian (83 points)
Blake Robert (81 points)
Kyle Olsen (81 points)
Andrew F (75 points)
Ryan (73 points)
SaraEdmonton (73 points)
Gwen May (71 points)
Kristin Stolarz (71 points)

The day before the election, we released the means and averages of the pool, which at the time had more than 100 entries. The average of the seat count predictions had the Wildrose Party with 42 MLA’s, the PCs with 37 MLA’s, the NDP with 4 MLA’s, and the Liberals with 3 MLA’s. A majority of the entries predicted that cabinet minister Ted Morton would be defeated in Chestermere-Rockyview and that Premier Alison Redford would be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow.

Thank you to everyone who entered the pool. Any entrant who is curious how they placed can send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com.

Alberta Election Results 2012

What was expected to be the most exciting provincial election in history of our province turned out to be a continuation of the 41-year old Progressive Conservative dynasty. The pollsters, the media, and the pundits (including this blogger) appear to have completely misjudged the electoral climate in the final days of the election.

Unofficial Results
PC: 61
Wildrose: 17
Liberal: 5
NDP: 4

It appears that the PC Party call to moderate voters to vote strategically to block the Wildrose Party from forming government was successful in Calgary, Edmonton, and northern Alberta. While the Tories ran a completely lacklustre campaign, Albertans’ unease with the thorny social conservative views of Wildrose candidates Allan Hunsperger and Ron Leech undoubtedly drew moderates to cast their ballots for the PCs yesterday.

Alison Redford

At least for now, Premier Alison Redford is secure in her position as leader of the PC Party. The PCs have re-elected a number of veteran MLAs, including Dave Hancock in Edmonton-Whitemud, and a new cast of rookie MLAs who will amount to about 1/3 of the governing caucus.

The golden rule of Alberta elections remains truth: never bet against the incumbent.

The Tories have lost many of their former strongholds in rural Alberta and cabinet giants, including Ted Morton in Chestermere-Rockyview, Evan Berger in Livingstone-Macleod, Jack Hayden in Drumheller-Stettler, and Ray Danyluk in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills. Successful use of wedge issues like property rights likely played a significant role in the Wildrose winning these rural constituencies.

Danielle Smith

With 17 MLA’s, Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party will form the Official Opposition in the Assembly. Ms. Smith’s challenges are two-fold. First, she must manage the expectations of disappointed caucus members who expected to be sitting in the government benches. Second, she must form a cohesive opposition consisting of mostly rookie MLA’s (including herself). Two of the Wildrose Party’s four incumbent MLA’s were defeated last night. Only MLA Heather Forsyth in Calgary-Fish Creek and Rob Anderson in Airdrie were re-elected.

The Wildrose caucus is almost entirely made up of MLA’s from southern rural Alberta constituencies, which breaks from the almost three decade-long tradition of urban-based Liberal or NDP official oppositions. This will be the first time since the Social Credit Party formed official opposition in 1971 that a large caucus of rural MLAs are the official opposition. Despite signs of a wave early in the campaign, the Wildrose Party only elected two MLA’s in Calgary, including Ms. Forsyth and Jeff Wilson, who defeated PC appointee candidate Farouk Adatia in Calgary-Shaw.

Raj Sherman

“It was a miracle that we survived” was Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman‘s comment on CBC Radio this morning. The Liberal Party elected five MLA’s last night, losing official opposition status for the first time in nineteen years. The Liberal vote collapsed across the province to 10% and the party lost long-time Liberal voting constituencies Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Riverview, and Calgary-Varsity to the Tories.

Former Liberal MLA Maurice Tougas may have said it best on his blog this morning, “Liberals will now have to ask themselves what their place is in Alberta politics, or indeed if there is any place for them at all.”

The NDP probably have mixed feelings this morning. NDP leader Brian Mason ran a smooth campaign and his party has gained official party status by adding former MLA David Eggen from Edmonton-Calder and Deron Bilous from Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview to their caucus, but they are still one MLA smaller than the Liberals, who many New Democrats had hoped to surpass.

There are some pretty disappointed people in the Alberta Party camp this morning. Their hopes for electing an MLA were dashed, but the party earned 17,144 across the province, which leaves them with something to build on for the next election.

More to come…

Premier Alison Redford's Tories have won a majority in Alberta's election.

What was expected to be the most exciting provincial election in history of Alberta has turned out to be the continuation of the 41 year Progressive Conservative dynasty. The pollsters, the media, and the pundits (this blogger included) appear to have completely misjudged the electoral climate in the final days of the election.

Global Television, CTV, and CBC have all declared a majority government for Premier Alison Redford‘s PC Party.

It appears that the call by the PC Party to moderate Liberal and NDP voters to vote strategically to block the Wildrose Party from forming government was successful. The Liberal Party vote, at 25% in the 2008 election, has collapsed across the province. At this point in the evening, Liberal leader Raj Sherman is trailing the Tory challenger in his Edmonton-Meadowlark constituency.

The NDP are on track to elect 4 MLAs, adding former MLA David Eggen from Edmonton-Calder and Deron Bilous from Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview.

The Wildrose Party has swept southern Alberta. Danielle Smith and official opposition party Wildrose Party now have the challenge of managing the expectations of their supporters who believed that they were on the cusp of forming government.

As of 9:42 p.m., CBC is reporting the seat count as (leading or elected):

PC: 23 Elected, 37 Leading
Wildrose: 7 Elected, 13 Leading
NDP: 2 Elected, 2 Leading
Liberal: 3 Leading

More analysis as the results come in.