Categories
Brian Mason Danielle Smith David Climenhaga David Swann Edwin Erickson Kevin Taft Randy Thorsteinson

perfesser dave’s five paths to obscurity.

In his most recent blog post and column in the Saint City News, David Climenhaga (aka Perfesser Dave) pointed out five main challenges that the new Alberta Party faces in becoming relevant in the 2012 election. It is a good list and these challenges do not face the new Alberta Party alone. Mr. Climenhaga is also accurate in describing the challenges facing the other opposition parties in Alberta.

While the Wildrose Alliance, now led by Danielle Smith, has been successful in raising piles of cash through their oil and gas sector bankrollers, both the Liberals and New Democrats have had a difficult time raising the kind of funds needed to compete with the near 40-year governing Progressive Conservative Party. In 2007, the Liberals led by Edmonton MLA Kevin Taft raised over $1 million, but it remained a miniscule amount compared to the PC Party’s multi-million dollar war chest.

For all the talk of vote-splitting among the opposition parties, the political field is really not that crowded. In 2008, over 60% of Albertans stayed away from the polls, which signals that Albertans are hardly overflowing the polling stations to split votes. Even the electoral equations provided by the Democratic Renewal Project show that a merger of Liberal and NDP votes in recent elections would only create a moderately-sized opposition. It is true that the new Alberta Party leader, Edwin Erickson, is not high profile and is unlikely to be the next Premier of Alberta, but once you step out of the political echo chamber or away from the Dome, all the parties become irrelevant. For all their hard work, show a picture of David Swann or Brian Mason to a random person on the street, and you will likely get a puzzled look.

Voter Turnout versus Eligible Voters (Alberta 1975-2008)
Total Vote: Party Breakdown (Alberta 1971-2008)

Mr. Climenhaga claimed that the Alberta Party is a group of “self-important yuppified professionals who would like to go straight into power.” I have met with some of the organizers of the new Alberta Party and some of them are even good friends of mine. I can attest that while they are ambitious (and perhaps a bit naive), they are not what Mr. Climenhaga describes.

I have spoken with many Liberals and New Democrats who remain befuddled as to why anyone would attempt to start something new, rather than join the ranks of the already assembled politicos. On many levels, the people behind the new party are looking for a cultural shift in Alberta politics. Although they may agree with some of the policies promoted by the traditional political parties, they see the culture of these traditional parties as part of the problem. The Alberta Party organizers appear to be fully aware of the risks of failure and that they are stepping beyond the political comfort zones of many people already involved in other parties.

I know many jilted Liberals and jolted New Democrats who have resolved to bask in the glory days of Pierre Trudeau or Laurence Decore and Tommy Douglas or Grant Notley. I somewhat admire their political stamina and strength (or madness) in the face of adversity, but I also completely understand why a group of young politically ambitious reformers would want to chart their own course. Joining a group that has become content with spending decades in the relative obscurity of the opposition benches is hardly attractive if you are serious about changing government policy.

Building a new political party from the ground up is hard work. The current leadership of the Liberals and New Democrats inherited a base of support and network that has existed for decades. Considering that the party was formed only eight years ago, the growth of the Wildrose Alliance is impressive (recognizing that it did have roots in the mini-resurgence of the Randy Thorsteinson-led Social Credit Party in 1997). It will be interesting to see whether the people involved with the new Alberta Party can actually build something different.

Contrary to what you may sometimes read on this blog, I do not always enjoying pointing out the flaws of Alberta’s opposition parties. I wish they would do better. I wish for opposition parties that were not uncompetitive in half the constituencies represented in the Assembly. I wish for a competitive election in 2012 that will attract Albertans back to the ballot booths. If the current polling trends continue, it looks like it may be competitive, but it remains to be seen who will actually be the contenders.

Categories
Danielle Smith David Swann Ed Stelmach Mark Dyrholm Randy Thorsteinson Shayne Saskiw

does policy matter?

Last week’s posts “Danielle Smith’s Free-ride” and “PC Policy Veep defects to the Wildrose Alliance” generated a lot of heated discussion and responses from at least three other bloggers either supporting (Alberta Altruist and Brian Dell) or criticizing (David Climenhaga) the policy positions of the Wildrose Alliance. These posts and the debate that followed in the comment sections has led me to ask the question: how much does party policy really matter?

The defection of Progressive Conservative Party Vice-President Policy and Resolution Shayne Saskiw to the Wildrose Alliance has raised questions about how much influence do PC Party members have on the actual policy that a government implements? According to Saskiw, not much.

“I was able to give their opinions on policy to the government, but the government was not acting on their advice.”

This is not a surprise, nor a new criticism of how responsive governments are to ordinary citizens – engaged or otherwise. Does anyone remember Premier Ed Stelmach campaigning on the PC Party platform of dissolving the regional health authorities and centralizing control into the largest employer in the province? It was not mentioned in the “Change that Works for Albertans” (PDF) document, nor do know of any PC candidates who campaigned on this policy position. Perhaps after nearly 40 years in government, the upper echelons of power at the Legislature feel that the election process is simply a formality. Perhaps the PC Party interpreted the 52% support they received in the election that recorded the lowest voter turnout in Alberta history equal a blank check mandate?

It would be wrong to suggest that policy does not matter, because it does. It is important to recognize that in many cases, the majority of challenges that a government will deal with during a term in office will be reactive. In these cases, it is important to recognize leadership and which elected official or officials will offer the kind of leadership that will be best suited to dealing with reactive situations. For example, mainstream business and economic forecasters were predicting smooth sailing ahead during the 2008 election when politicians were practically promising a jet-pack for every citizen. In 2010, the economic outlook is quite a bit more modest (though we are fairing better than our American neighbors).

During my time working with the Liberal Party until 2007, I remember it being normal for policies to be generated from the Official Opposition Caucus offices, rather than the party policy committees. Perhaps this is one of the problems with the traditional political parties in Alberta. They do consult with stakeholders and rely on well-educated researchers and analyst, but in the end, new policies became more about marketing and messaging instead of listening and generating a party membership driven policy apparatus.

This leads me back to Ms. Smith and a statement she made about Wildrose Alliance policy:

“Our party does not take a position on divisive social issues. We prefer to focus on those areas where we agree.”

This statement reflects a smart (and so far successful) strategy of positioning the Wildrose Alliance as the moderate conservative/conservatively moderate anti-establishment party in Alberta politics. I have been told that many of Ms. Smith’s financial backers in Calgary’s oil and gas sector would like to turn the page on the more hard social conservative views that the party has advocated in the past. Refusing to talk about divisive social issues is a smart political tactic, given the positions that her party has taken in the past.

During the 2004 election, the Alliance led by Randy Thorsteinson called for province-wide votes on abortion and same-sex marriage. There have also been questions about the influence that conservative members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints have had on the development of Alliance policies.

This said, an elected official’s personal or religious views on social issues do not necessarily result in major government policy changes. During the 2001 election, Vegreville-Viking MLA Ed Stelmach responded to a questionnaire from LifeSiteNews in which he declared his opposition to abortion under any circumstances (his response to the 2004 election questionnaire is not published online). This was his position nine years ago and may continue to be his position today, but since becoming Premier three years ago, Stelmach has hardly been a champion in the fight against allowing women the choice to access abortions. Like Premier Stelmach’s, it would be extremely difficult for Ms. Smith’s party to enter a divisive debate on social issues and continue to hold their current mainstream support in the polls.

Tempering the more extreme elements in her party is going to be one of Ms. Smith’s largest challenges. In 2009, nearly 2,000 Wildrose Alliance members voted for social conservative candidate Mark Dyrholm. What happens if these “grassroots” dispute Ms. Smith’s position? Is Ms. Smith willing to cut them loose in order to avoid the damage of being labeled as the “scary conservative party?” If it reaches the point where push comes to shove, maybe policy will matter.

Categories
Brian Mason Broyce Jacobs David Swann Grant Notley Jeff Callaway Jim Gurnett Libby Davies Mo Elsalhy Paul Hinman Randy Thorsteinson Tony Sansota

all eyes on the opposition.

– On April 25, the Alberta Liberal Party will be holding its first Annual General Meeting since David Swann became leader in December 2008. After recently announcing the laying off of their two remaining party staff members, I’ve been informed that the Liberals financial situation stabilized in the short-term when a number of donors opened their pockets when the news became public.

With current President Grant Dunlop stepping down, I’ve heard that two three candidates, Calgary Liberal Tony Sansotta, former Edmonton-McClung MLA Mo Elsalhy, and current Party Secretary Carrol Jaques [see: an email from Jaques to supporters] are intending to stand for the position. I’ve also heard that some members of the party executive are pushing time at the AGM to hold a discussion on changing the Liberal Party name.

Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason was joined by Vancouver-East MP Libby Davies at that party’s revitalization conference this weekend in Grande Prairie. While the Grande Prairie Herald-Tribune reported only a dozen attendees, I was told by a conference attendee that there were nearly 30 attendees later in the afternoon (which still leaves the NDP with a lot of work to do).

The NDP haven’t elected an MLA in the region for 25 years. Former NDP leader Grant Notley represented Spirit River-Fairview from 1971 to 1984, and Jim Gurnett was elected in a by-election following Notley’s death in 1984 (Gurnett was later defeated by PC Glen Clegg in 1986). In 2008, NDP candidates Adele Boucher Rymhs and Nathan Macklin increased their party’s support in Peace River and Dunvegan-Central Peace.

Paul Hinman has announced that he will be stepping down as leader of the Wildrose Alliance. Hinman defeated PC MLA Broyce Jacobs to become the Alberta Alliance MLA for Cardston-Taber-Warner in 2004. Hinman was elected party leader in 2005 when Randy Thorsteinson stepped down. With the merger of the Alliance and Wildrose Party in 2008, he became leader of the Wildrose Alliance. Hinman was defeated in 2008 by Jacobs. According to Party President Jeff Callaway, members are also eyeing a name change.

– Meanwhile, the Alberta Greens may face de-registration by Elections Alberta for financial reasons…

Categories
Alberta Alliance Craig Chandler Paul Hinman Randy Thorsteinson Wildrose Party

uniting the right in alberta?

I’ve always had a bit of a fascination with the non-Progressive Conservative political right in Alberta and the future merger of the Wild Rose Party and the Alberta Alliance into the superparty Wild Rose Alliance is no exception.

I think it will be quite interesting to see the impact that a merger between these two parties will have in the next election. One of the quirks of Alberta politics seems to be the far-right’s inability to keep organized between elections only to coalesce in time for the election period.

In the 2004 election, the Alberta Alliance, led by Randy Thorsteinson, ran a full slate of 83 candidates. Though the majority of Alberta Alliance candidates didn’t come even close to victory, a few finished with strong second- or third- place finishes. Only Cardston-Taber-Warner candidate Paul Hinman (and now leader) was elected while Thorsteinson was unable to topple Tory MLA Luke Ouellette in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. With former Tory Broyce Jacobs once again challenging Hinman in Cardston-Taber-Warner, the Alliance leader Paul Hinman’s chances of re-election are questionable.

Of course, a couple of questions still remain about the Alliance-Wild Rose Unite the Right initiative such as… will they have time to register with Elections Alberta as a formal party or will they run under an unofficial slate? Will they really have time to organize candidates and campaigns before the next election? Will they hold a leadership race or will Alliance Leader Paul Hinman take the reins as has been suggested? What role will Craig Chandler and his merry band of supporters play in this new party/alliance?

Here’s a look back at some of the past-ventures of the non-PC far-right in Alberta electoral politics…

2004
Alberta Alliance (83 candidates) – 77,466 votes (8.7%)
Social Credit (42 candidates) – 10,998 votes (1.23%)

2001
Alberta First Party (16 candidates) – 8,851 votes (.87%)
Social Credit (12 candidates) – 5,361 votes (.53%)

1997
Social Credit (70 candidates) – 64,667 votes (6.84%)

1993
Confederation of Regions Party of Alberta (12 candidates) – 3,556 votes (.36%)
Social Credit (39 candidates) – 23,885 votes (2.41%)

1989
Social Credit (6 candidates) – 3,939 votes (.47%)

1986
Confederation of Regions Party of Alberta (6 candidates) – 2,866 votes (.40%)
Heritage Party of Alberta (6 candidates) – 601 votes (.08%)
Representative Party of Alberta (46 candidates) – 36,656 votes (5.14%)
Western Canada Concept Party of Alberta (20 candidates) – 4,615 votes (.65%)

1982
Alberta Reform Movement (14 candidates) – 6,258 votes (.66%)
Social Credit (23 candidates) – 7,843 votes (.83%)
Western Canada Concept Party of Alberta (78 candidates) – 111,131 votes (11.76%)

(Also, has anyone registered wildrosealliance.ca/.com/.org/.net, or do we need to go through this again…)